Electricity

[canadagoose]

What is with this upcoming price rise? My unit rate is going up by 7p/kWh and my standing charge is doubling. Other providers seem to be the same. It's going to put our costs up by about £400 a year. Is this going to get better, or is this just more Brexit/COVID dogshit causing inflation?

[Fr.Bigley]

It means you need to stop growing weed in your loft.

[canadagoose]

It means you need to stop growing weed in your loft.

I wish we bloody were. Might make the price rise a bit more palatable.

[Shit Good Nose]

A perfect storm of key price influences happening simultaneously:

Ofgem increasing the price cap (which does actually affect everyone, despite what the media have been saying about it only affecting those on pre-payment meters and/or deemed rates);
Enormous increase in renewables added to the network in the last couple of years, requiring extensive and expensive upgrading of mains (many of which have not been upgraded since before privatisation) across the country (expect the same to happen with gas prices as natural gas is replaced with green/renewable);
Increasing unrest in the middle east having a large impact on oil prices (which have also been affected by covid, the global materials shortage AND the Suez canal blockage);
Massive increase in fossil fuel demand from business and industry sectors as most countries eased their lockdowns;
Massive increase in domestic demand during lockdown and moving forward as many more employers have now adopted flexible working and/or working from home, leading to more frequent demand spikes over a longer period during the day;
Increasing rate of failure of start-up energy companies, forcing those that pick up the reins to buy more energy than initially planned (suppliers purchase in advance based on current consumption plus assumptions made about gaining and losing customers, but those assumptions don't allow for another supplier going bust and having to take on an extra several hundred thousand business and domestic customers);
Increasing major weather events impacting supply, delivery, storage etc.

Also, in your specific case canadagoose, you say this is an upcoming price rise, so I'm guessing your next contract starts in September or October.  In supply terms, that means you're leading with a winter contract, so there's always an extra premium to pay for that.

Brexit will be a very very minor factor and have - in relative terms - only a microscopic impact/influence.

Sorry to say prices will likely continue to go up by 20-50% year on year for the foreseeable future.  In theory, once most of the UK network has been upgraded and most people and businesses are supplied with green/renewable energy, prices should stabilise and plateau slightly, but it could take years to get to that stage.

[canadagoose]

A perfect storm of key price influences happening simultaneously:

Ofgem increasing the price cap (which does actually affect everyone, despite what the media have been saying about it only affecting those on pre-payment meters and/or deemed rates);
Enormous increase in renewables added to the network in the last couple of years, requiring extensive and expensive upgrading of mains (many of which have not been upgraded since before privatisation) across the country (expect the same to happen with gas prices as natural gas is replaced with green/renewable);
Increasing unrest in the middle east having a large impact on oil prices (which have also been affected by covid, the global materials shortage AND the Suez canal blockage);
Massive increase in fossil fuel demand from business and industry sectors as most countries eased their lockdowns;
Massive increase in domestic demand during lockdown and moving forward as many more employers have now adopted flexible working and/or working from home, leading to more frequent demand spikes over a longer period during the day;
Increasing rate of failure of start-up energy companies, forcing those that pick up the reins to buy more energy than initially planned (suppliers purchase in advance based on current consumption plus assumptions made about gaining and losing customers, but those assumptions don't allow for another supplier going bust and having to take on an extra several hundred thousand business and domestic customers);
Increasing major weather events impacting supply, delivery, storage etc.

Brexit will be a very very minor factor and have - in relative terms - only a microscopic impact/influence.

Sorry to say prices will likely continue to go up by 20-50% year on year for the foreseeable future.  In theory, once most of the UK network has been upgraded and most people and businesses are supplied with green/renewable energy, prices should stabilise and plateau slightly, but it could take years to get to that stage.

Thanks for the info. Depressing, really. How the hell is anyone supposed to keep their houses warm when prices are going up like this? Supermarkets are getting worse too. Bloody inflation.

[touchingcloth]

Dip into the trust fund a little, it'll be alright.

[Sherringford Hovis]

A perfect storm of key price influences happening simultaneously:

(expect the same to happen with gas prices as natural gas is replaced with green/renewable);

Great post - sums up the electrickery nicely.

Also: the government's ludicrous aim of actively dissuading punters away from gas boilers from 2025 onwards coupled with a likely huge increase in demand for EV vehicle charging is mercilessly going to spank an already creaky, crumbling electrical supply infrastructure.

If you see Sid, tell 'im.

[ZoyzaSorris]

Sounds more like SNG trying to sneak in his relentless anti-green secret gammon agenda into yet another post to me!

[ZoyzaSorris]

For a start has the Middle East got increasing unrest at the moment? I'd argue it is more stable than the average of the last ten years. Iraq and Syria relatively peaceful, talks resuming with US and Iran etc.

Also why would an increase in renewables make gas more expensive? Surely it would have the opposite effect of anything, by reducing demand on gas?

All the serious analyses I have seen put current energy price rises on a surge in global demand, plain and simple. I have no doubt that a failure to invest in infrastructure post-privatisation whilst reaping max profits will be costing consumers long-term though.

[Johnny Yesno]

Sounds more like SNG trying to sneak in his relentless anti-green secret gammon agenda into yet another post to me!

SGN. SNG hasn't posted here in years, more's the pity.

[Hat FM]

i'm with bulb and apparently my rate is going from 18.79p to 20.76p with the standing charge going from 22.79 - 23.39.  i'll be spending just under £2 more a week on energy.

still well worth shopping around even though rates are going up across the board.

[The Dog]

Have you ever thought about making your own electricity? Its so much better than the shop bought stuff.

[olliebean]

Supposedly bills are rising by 12% on average, but I suspect if you're already on one of the cheaper available tariffs it'll be hitting you harder. Some of the comparison sites couldn't offer me anything less than 50% above what I'm currently paying; none of them showed me anything less than a 30% increase. And nobody is offering cashback deals any more. It looks like, for the first time ever, my cheapest option is just to stay with my current provider and do nothing - the default tariff they are rolling me onto is actually cheaper than any of the options I got from the comparison sites. Still up by over £250/year, though.

As I think I posted in another thread - although I can afford it, for now, there'll be loads of people who'll be finding they can't afford to heat their homes adequately this winter, which isn't going to mix well with coronavirus and an expected bad flu season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a spike in pneumonia deaths.

[touchingcloth]

Have you ever thought about making your own electricity? Its so much better than the shop bought stuff.

We used to make our own in my day with a stick and a hoop, none of this graphite moderators and sintered uranium dioxide and positive void coefficients you see these days.

[olliebean]

Have you ever thought about making your own electricity? Its so much better than the shop bought stuff.

I looked into getting solar panels a few years ago, but it requires a huge upfront investment and I don't have enough suitably oriented roof area to make it worthwhile. And that was before they cut the feed-in tariffs.

[Shit Good Nose]

For a start has the Middle East got increasing unrest at the moment? I'd argue it is more stable than the average of the last ten years. Iraq and Syria relatively peaceful, talks resuming with US and Iran etc.

Also why would an increase in renewables make gas more expensive? Surely it would have the opposite effect of anything, by reducing demand on gas?

All the serious analyses I have seen put current energy price rises on a surge in global demand, plain and simple. I have no doubt that a failure to invest in infrastructure post-privatisation whilst reaping max profits will be costing consumers long-term though.

US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the relating uncertainty over future security of oil has had a direct affect on the oil price - lots of trading on long-term purchases has increased competition from major sectors.  Every time there's a change to the status quo over there, oil prices react accordingly.

The likely large increase in gas prices will be as a result of moving away from natural gas to a gas alternative.  Most of the gas main pipes and most boilers currently cannot handle a 100% alternative to natural gas - some of the materials used in both react and corrode.  I was talking about gas renewables, not electricity in that point, hence why it was in brackets.


None of this is guesswork by me - we've been monitoring the situation closely at work and talking to all of our supplier contacts and other industry insiders (at SSE, EDF, British Gas, Total, and the Major Energy Users Council) for the last 18 months, as indicative prices for our last electricity contract (which began in April 2021, we went to market in December 2020, with indicative forward prices in October 2020 and early warnings from our suppliers back in June 2020) went up by 35-50% depending on the supply type (Half Hourly, non-HH, P272 HH, STOD supplies, etc etc).

But that's fine - no need to take the word of someone who has been working in the industry on the client side for 13 years.

[katzenjammer]

Just to confirm this is not only a UK problem, price rises are daily headlines here in Spain with the blame nearly always directed at the socialist national government

Today's example
https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4804731/0/el-precio-de-la-luz-subira-este-martes-hasta-los-130-euros-por-megavatio-hora-su-nuevo-record/

[Dex Sawash]

Just get Amazon to bring your electricity

[Shit Good Nose]

Just get Amazon to bring your electricity

I have got £20 worth of gift cards coming, so that might pay for a week.  Problem is the delivery driver always chucks it in our bin and, being a short-arse, I can't reach it :-(

[Ferris]

Have you ever thought about making your own electricity? Its so much better than the shop bought stuff.

Was going to get solar panels on the roof, save the world and all that. Fuckers wanted a bit over $20k to install them - with the reduced electricity rate I calculated I'd make a saving in about 25 years when I would be so old as to be essentially dead.

Oh but there's a government rebate, let's see how much it's worth!

...ah, 300 quid.

Right, fuck the lot of you, get out of my house. Just going to taff some solar panels off parking meters and things until I had enough to power my PlayStation.

[TrenterPercenter]

i'm with bulb

I BET YOU ARE YOU DIRTY OLD BOLLOCKS! I BET YOU ARE!