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March 28, 2024, 11:15:37 PM

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Data swamp, becoming harder to tell what's happening and what will happen

Started by shoulders, December 17, 2021, 09:49:17 AM

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shoulders

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table

I've kept track up until recently with European developments through Covid, but it has become gradually more difficult to keep track of what is happening, why, and what is likely to happen.

Look at the above, with even direct neighbours with a land border experiencing not just different outcomes but rises as opposed to falls and vice versa. There are national differences in restrictions and with percentage vaccinated but this is starting to become swampy in my mind.

Whether that's because my own brain is frazzled and blitzed out by it all or not, I don't know, but I feel more settled to know the good or bad news and prepare to adapt for either. Right now dunno what is happening.

Crenners

Ebola had dey time
Covid-19 had dey time

Ebola-19 gonna have dey time

Zetetic

Considerable problems with consistent case-counting at this point, given importance of re-infections.

(Unclear why England still not counting re-infections properly, when at least one other part of the UK has demonstrated how to do this since the start of the pandemic.)

steveh

QuoteWe're working on counting re-infections, honestly. It's not as easy as one might think to change that bit of the COVID machinery.

https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1470171612448276483

olliebean

How is it difficult? Surely you just count all the positive test results? Isn't it an extra step to exclude previously infected people from that?

Zetetic

You need to adopt a sensible 'episode period' - people can easily re-test during a single infection.

But, as I say, this has been known for two years and one part of the UK has been handling this for the whole of that time.


Zetetic

As it happens - but the point is that's not beyond the wit of man, nor is it a surprise that this is how you should be making sense of the data.