Cook'd and Bomb'd

Forums => Remain Indoors (DEAD SOON) => Topic started by: Chedney Honks on May 31, 2021, 11:43:16 AM

Title: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on May 31, 2021, 11:43:16 AM
It does seem to be picking up again, science guys are saying kick the can down the road another few weeks, just let's make sure this time and Boris is saying full steam ahead to the morgue as long as the coffers are full!

Do you think there'll be another lockdown before the end of 2021?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on May 31, 2021, 12:06:25 PM
You're all over the place. Yesterday you were crowing that it was all over? At least Shoulder's is consistent and follows the data, even if I don't like his style.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on May 31, 2021, 12:34:43 PM
It's all over for me, yeah.

Just making conversation.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on May 31, 2021, 02:55:56 PM
Judging by the crowds this weekend, and at sporting events, shops, everywhere, I think we'll know pretty clearly if there's a 3rd wave in 2 weeks or so. I would speculate we are having a 3rd wave, but it will be a relatively small one. Once again, the UK was incapable of shutting its borders. The way it's going, this pandemic will never really end, just repeated smaller and smaller waves.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on May 31, 2021, 07:45:23 PM
Ferguson and SPI-M predicted a 3rd wave in June, so its expected... prepared for... not so sure
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bomb_dog on May 31, 2021, 09:02:04 PM
I’m surprised the pending ‘wave’ is considered the third. I’d have said the third happened soon after the Christmas relaxing as this is when the numbers skyrocketed up after a bit of a December tail-off.  Peak was 9th January by the looks of things, two weeks after Xmas.

If the argument is that the 2nd just went on for ages and didn’t finish, the charts look very much like Christmas bad-decision relaxing got squarely in the way, causing the third, highest wave. If it’s a case of poor planning and late decision making, we’ve had three of those now, and the mess about ‘date not data’ is now a fourth.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on May 31, 2021, 10:38:01 PM
There's a distinction between waves and peaks, I think, with the second wave having two peaks due to being inadequately suppressed by the too late and too short mini-lockdown we had in November.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Blinder Data on May 31, 2021, 11:01:00 PM
I think there WILL be another lockdown in the autumn/winter.  Probably not as severe as before but some restrictions will be reintroduced to stop the spread at some point. Cunts thinking it will all be over this year and lifting restrictions is a one way street (like the PM) are silly.

We'll just have to live like Canadians and hibernate during the cold months. It's fine.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on May 31, 2021, 11:07:57 PM
Will be interested to see if they do keep stuff open if cases get high but bed numbers and deaths stay lowish (let's say below 2000 hospitalisations per day and below 80 deaths a day).

I don't really think people know what is going to happen.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 01, 2021, 08:30:40 AM
Hope you're not one of those 80 per day, Shoulders. OR YOU'LL HAVE EGG ON YOUR FACE.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Thursday on June 01, 2021, 08:38:47 AM
Well I'VE had both doses, so I'll be fine. No possibility of anything going wrong for me. Maybe everyone not fully vaccinated should go back on lockdown. And old people just in case. Keep all the shops open for me, but don't allow most people to go. Very severe punishments for people that do.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 01, 2021, 10:04:00 AM
Well I'VE had both doses, so I'll be fine. No possibility of anything going wrong for me. Maybe everyone not fully vaccinated should go back on lockdown. And old people just in case. Keep all the shops open for me, but don't allow most people to go. Very severe punishments for people that do.

I can imagine you being driven round harrods in a gold buggy
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on June 01, 2021, 10:52:36 AM
Will be interested to see if they do keep stuff open if cases get high but bed numbers and deaths stay lowish (let's say below 2000 hospitalisations per day and below 80 deaths a day).

I don't really think people know what is going to happen.

If hospitals aren't at risk of being overrun, I don't reckon there'll be another lockdown. It'll just be dismissed as being essentially the same as flu now. And if there's a problem next year with rising numbers of long Covid sufferers, that'll just be weaponised to further demonise benefit claimants as workshy scroungers and justify more welfare cuts.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 01, 2021, 12:42:28 PM
Sociology arsewipe wades in

Quote
Robert Dingwall, professor of sociology at Nottingham Trent University, said “critics” who have suggested that the June 21 easing should be delayed “can’t even agree on what delay they’d like”.

He told Times Radio:

By the time we get to June 21, everybody who is in the nine priority groups or the highest risk will have had both jabs, and would have had a period of time to consolidate the immunity.

What are we going on with is really running into younger age groups who are intrinsically much lower risk. Many of the scientists who’ve been talking over the weekend simply haven’t adjusted their expectations to understand that - (for these people) Covid is a mild illness in the community.

As the Director of Public Health Bolton was saying last week, the people who are going into hospital... it’s not like January, these are not desperately ill people.

They’re people who need a little bit of extra support with oxygen, they need access to the dexamethasone treatment, which is very effective.

They go in, stay in hospital for three or four days and they go out again. There is no realistic prospect of the NHS facing the sorts of pressures that it faced in January and February. And that’s why I think we have to we have to push on with this.

If someone needs to be on a ventilator how are they not desperately ill?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 01, 2021, 12:56:45 PM
jus' a lickle vent
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 01, 2021, 01:16:19 PM
Loved it when the interviewer went 'Who asked you? Who the fuck asked you, valve, void, froth, nothing, eh, professor fucking anomaly?'

.. was punching the air.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on June 01, 2021, 01:38:15 PM
Cheeky vents.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on June 01, 2021, 01:39:49 PM
Netflix and vent.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 01, 2021, 01:41:06 PM
Loved it when the interviewer went 'Who asked you? Who the fuck asked you, valve, void, froth, nothing, eh, professor fucking anomaly?'

.. was punching the air.

“Nottingham fucking Trent! Give me a break. School of valves...bulbs...!!!”
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 01, 2021, 01:41:48 PM
🎶 wiv a lickle bit of vent, we can make it thru the night 🎶
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: buttgammon on June 01, 2021, 01:52:56 PM
Same bloke previously:

Quote
We have this very strong message which has effectively terrorised the population into believing that this is a disease that is going to kill you. And mostly it isn't. Eighty per cent of the people who get this infection will never need to go near a hospital. The ones who do go to hospital because they are quite seriously ill most of them will come out alive – even those who go into intensive care. We have completely lost sight of that in the obsession with deaths, the human interest stories about deaths, the international comparisons about death rates, the opportunities for intrepid television journalists to put on lots of PPE and go into high tech where people are acutely ill. All of that helps to create this climate of fear...

When you think about it, you're actually very lucky to end up in intensive care with a disease that may cause serious permanent damage.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 01, 2021, 02:07:53 PM
Should be blacklisted from mainstream media, stripped of his titles and fed lots of non-lethal poison.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 01, 2021, 02:17:49 PM
That is an astonishing quote:

Quote
Eighty per cent of the people who get this infection will never need to go near a hospital. The ones who do go to hospital because they are quite seriously ill most of them will come out alive

I mean... fucking hell like.

“20% of people go to hospital with this and a lot of them (probably) won’t even need a coffin” is a strange way of saying something isn’t serious.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: buttgammon on June 01, 2021, 02:24:01 PM
GB News have their science expert role sorted anyway.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 01, 2021, 03:36:03 PM
Why interview a professor of sociology about such matters in the first place?

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on June 01, 2021, 03:45:36 PM
A professor of sociology seems quite a good person to interview about some of this stuff, but perhaps not this professor of sociology.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 01, 2021, 06:11:54 PM
Your handy cut out and keep guide to all the current variants.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E2zz8v6XwAUVqrH?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 01, 2021, 06:17:28 PM
Throw him out of the sociology game! I Care not One Jot!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 01, 2021, 06:20:13 PM
0 deaths today, that's it lads, it's over, off to enjoy the new lockdown relaxations and sexually assault stray animals cheers
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on June 01, 2021, 06:34:29 PM
Kent. Fucking Medway more like. Gills!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bakabaka on June 01, 2021, 06:38:22 PM
Your handy cut out and keep guide to all the current variants.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E2zz8v6XwAUVqrH?format=jpg&name=medium)
Alpha, delta, beta, gamma?

"In order to make this data blind and unbiased, we are going to randomise the Greek alphabet."
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bomb_dog on June 01, 2021, 08:57:45 PM
“...Roger and out.”
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Gurke and Hare on June 01, 2021, 09:04:19 PM
Alpha, delta, beta, gamma?

"In order to make this data blind and unbiased, we are going to randomise the Greek alphabet."

What data needs to be blind here? Is there a study where people are being injected with a random variant?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on June 01, 2021, 10:02:11 PM
Alpha, delta, beta, gamma?

"In order to make this data blind and unbiased, we are going to randomise the Greek alphabet."

It's in order of when they were first identified, isn't it?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bakabaka on June 01, 2021, 10:40:45 PM
It's in order of when they were first identified, isn't it?
Almost certainly, but difficult to tell as that data isn't in the chart. Because they aren't in any other obvious order (alphabetical, numerical, transmissibility, colour, etc.).
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MrMrs on June 02, 2021, 12:08:29 AM
no more lockdown, not gonna happen
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 02, 2021, 08:32:09 AM
no more lockdown, not gonna happen

Thank you, Minister for Loon
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: metaltax on June 02, 2021, 08:49:26 AM
no more lockdown, not gonna happen

It's nice that you think you have a choice in the matter.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Phoenix Lazarus on June 02, 2021, 08:50:29 AM
Zero deaths reported for the first time.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-reports-zero-daily-coronavirus-related-deaths-for-first-time-since-pandemic-began-12322274
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Norton Canes on June 02, 2021, 09:21:14 AM
Zero deaths reported for the first time

as final human dies yesterday
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 02, 2021, 05:11:49 PM
Zero deaths reported for the first time.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-reports-zero-daily-coronavirus-related-deaths-for-first-time-since-pandemic-began-12322274

I was all over that yesterday you absolute no mark, johnny come lately, piss taker extraordinaire. Say sorry! Say sorry at once!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: gilbertharding on June 03, 2021, 10:22:25 AM
Zero deaths reported for the first time.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-reports-zero-daily-coronavirus-related-deaths-for-first-time-since-pandemic-began-12322274

I am absolutely certain there was at least one day last summer when no Covid deaths were reported. I remember it, because some cunt on twitter (one of the usual ones) was braying about how "you wouldn't hear anything about it on the mainstream media".

It was pointed out to this dickhead firstly that it was reported, and that it had since been revised because some people had, in fact, died on that day, but hadn't been included in initial reporting - because that always happens.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: gilbertharding on June 03, 2021, 10:23:13 AM
Kent. Fucking Medway more like. Gills!

Strood, I heard - but fill your boots.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 03, 2021, 10:50:43 AM
Cases over 4000 yesterday with testing down on last week. Yet Johnson doesn't think we should delay 21st June or bring back masks in secondary schools. Not getting my second jab until late July and am worried about travelling by bus to work if the mask and distancing requirements are reduced. I've already had alone bus driver let so many people on the top deck that people were sitting two to a double seat.

If masks and distancing are scrapped on the 21st June  , I wouldn't feel confident going into non essential shops until I've had my second jab and I'm sure a small minority will feel the same.

It's really worrying seeing cases shooting up these past few days and the government once again being so blade about it. Less than 50% of adults are fully
protected.

Maybe Johnson's off writing another book and so isn't paying much attention to COVID again.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on June 03, 2021, 05:38:25 PM
Strood, I heard - but fill your boots.

Where I work, and have done all through this. No WFH for us.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: The Mollusk on June 03, 2021, 05:51:12 PM
On public transport and in shops I’d say the number of people not wearing masks is now up to 30-40%, probably due in part to both the “end in sight” mentality of the media/government and the summer heat. Nice to have another hearty whack of misanthrope coursing through me these last few days.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: peanutbutter on June 03, 2021, 06:00:52 PM
Delaying 21st June is gonna totally fuck the few industries that have been pretty much completely closed since March 2020 so I struggle to see it happening, but if that week coincides with a week or two of shit weather we're gonna see an absolute explosion in new cases.

Too much reopened in May all at once and happening alongside a patch of really shit weather didn't help things.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 03, 2021, 06:13:25 PM
On public transport and in shops I’d say the number of people not wearing masks is now up to 30-40%, probably due in part to both the “end in sight” mentality of the media/government and the summer heat. Nice to have another hearty whack of misanthrope coursing through me these last few days.

Do you use the bus? If the windows open I'd advise opening as many as possible when you get on. I dont know what you can do with trains.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 03, 2021, 06:40:22 PM
Delaying 21st June is gonna totally fuck the few industries that have been pretty much completely closed since March so I struggle to see it happening, but if that week coincides with a week or two of shit weather we're gonna see an absolute explosion in new cases.

Too much reopened in May all at once and happening alongside a patch of really shit weather didn't help things.



I'd be careful with this sort of chat outside of CaB.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 04, 2021, 04:49:46 PM
On bus today around midday and went to near the back as there were a couple of people without a mask at the front.  Back of the bus nearly empty aside from a group of girls on the back seat, half of them unmasked, who I think were going for a shopping trip Opened the windows near the back and sat about three rows from the back. Group of girls on the back seat, half of them unmasked, who I think were going for a shopping trip (talking about Primark), one of them creeps forward a few rows and slammed the window next to me, when I turned round she started laughing and hid behind her hair. I reopened it as soon as they had slammed it closed and they started talking about how they would close it as soon as I got off. They then slammed the other back window closed giggling talking about how they were cold. It wasn't hot but it wasn't freezing cold. As the people without masks had got off I went further forward where the windows were open on both sides and heard them slam the other back window as I did so. Windows were open on the rest of the bus so having the back windows closed wouldn't have made them much warmer.

It really angers me how some people just don't care about being in a pandemic and slam windows closed because they were cold. Maybe if they'd all worn masks I wouldn't have felt the need to open both windows. I didn't think it was worth saying anything because they clearly don't care about other people.

Just cannot understand people who can't let the bus be properly ventilated. Even if you can't wear a mask, at least let the windows be open. No wonder we are seeing cases rise so rapidly with people like that. Just fucked off really with people like that. And there's not a lot you can do so they get away with it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 04, 2021, 04:54:58 PM
Sorry, I know this thread isn't just for ranting but at what point will the wider population take this seriously again?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Huxleys Babkins on June 04, 2021, 05:27:18 PM
Sorry, I know this thread isn't just for ranting but at what point will the wider population take this seriously again?

Since Tuesday's headline 0 deaths, the media have, by and large, stopped reporting on deaths at all which, if folks at my work are anything to go by, makes people think that the deaths have simply stopped and that everyone going into hospital is coming back out again. I had to search to discover that, in fact, 12 people were reported on Weds, 18 yesterday and another 11 today. 41 people dead with no fanfare at all. Still, Boris had his second jab, so everything's fine.

We're back to people thinking "it's just the flu" again. Young people saying they won't bother with the vaccine as it can't kill people under 30. People over 30 overconfident with just the one dose. We're in really dangerous territory again.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MrMrs on June 04, 2021, 05:53:43 PM
reckon the sceptics are right though. it won't kill people under 30 and 1 dose is probably fine
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 04, 2021, 06:04:43 PM
reckon the sceptics are right though. it won't kill people under 30 and 1 dose is probably fine

Fucking wrong again. Where are you pulling this shit from? Second dose is vital
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: non capisco on June 04, 2021, 06:59:20 PM
Gone from thinking 'Happy to wait the twelve weeks for maximum efficacy from dose 2' to more of a feeling of 'GET THAT BASTARD IN ME, STAT!!'. This Delta variant doesn't seem like it's pissing about, does it?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 04, 2021, 07:09:00 PM
Ferris Vax currently at T+9 days.

Can I have a second series vaccine?

(Rejected line: “we’ve had one, yes; but what about second vaccine?”)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 04, 2021, 07:33:33 PM
reckon the sceptics are right though. it won't kill people under 30 and 1 dose is probably fine

Amen, buddy. Let's go on a suicide bungee. Odds are stacked in our favour. Will be well worth it if it comes off.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on June 04, 2021, 08:36:32 PM
I fully accept that a second dose is vital. Shame I can't get it until the middle of next month, if I live that long.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 04, 2021, 08:39:31 PM
I fully accept that a second dose is vital. Shame I can't get it until the middle of next month, if I live that long.

I sacked off a meeting with imitationleather tonight as the Bigg market was rammed with cunts and stag parties. Better safe than sorry. (apologies imi)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MrMrs on June 05, 2021, 12:16:59 AM
it's not vital, you'll be fine with the first
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 05, 2021, 12:33:44 AM
it's not vital, you'll be fine with the first

Excellent so relieved
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: non capisco on June 05, 2021, 12:35:45 AM
At least he didn't say 'ok cheers bye' I suppose.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on June 05, 2021, 12:36:24 AM
Nepal variant makes that, what, five variants now? Quite a diverse pathogen loving it.

Can viruses ever mutate to become more lethal?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on June 05, 2021, 06:30:45 AM
Yes, although selective pressures generally work against such variants spreading unless they have a decent incubation and/or low severity transmission period.

You might have heard of a little fellow called CoViD-19, for example.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on June 05, 2021, 08:55:32 AM
Nepal variant makes that, what, five variants now? Quite a diverse pathogen loving it.

Can viruses ever mutate to become more lethal?

There are thousands of variants. The ones we hear about are the variants "of interest" or "of concern."

And yes, viruses can mutate to become more lethal, but it doesn't confer any particular advantage to the virus (to some extent it's a disadvantage, as a dead person is unlikely to be spreading it any further), so it's not a mutation that will tend to dominate on its own.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 05, 2021, 09:00:45 AM
it's not vital, you'll be fine with the first

Roughly 30% of those with one vaccine shot will be fine but we're up against a virus which is now thought to be up 100% more transmissible. I don't know about you but that maths doesn't seem like its on our side. 
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 05, 2021, 09:58:05 AM
I am going to got apeshit if I get Covid after two jabs.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: chveik on June 05, 2021, 09:58:41 AM
put that tedious cunt on ignore
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MrMrs on June 05, 2021, 10:41:14 AM
I have but he still sends me pm
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 05, 2021, 10:50:09 AM
Yes, although selective pressures generally work against such variants spreading unless they have a decent incubation and/or low severity transmission period.

You might have heard of a little fellow called CoViD-19, for example.

Incubation period cited as low as 3 days for Delta, but also 18 + days by others.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 05, 2021, 10:54:35 AM
For the dunces among us, incubation period is time between exposure and becoming infectious? Or something else?

Obviously I know the answer, just checking on behalf of everyone else.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 05, 2021, 11:06:53 AM
For the dunces among us, incubation period is time between exposure and becoming infectious? Or something else?

Obviously I know the answer, just checking on behalf of everyone else.

yup siree
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: stonkers on June 05, 2021, 11:16:43 AM
For the dunces among us, incubation period is time between exposure and becoming infectious? Or something else?

Obviously I know the answer, just checking on behalf of everyone else.

It's the time between infection and symptoms starting. You can be infectious before symptoms start showing, or if you are completely asymptomatic.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 05, 2021, 11:58:07 AM
If the incubation period is now reduced with this new variant then presumably thats a good thing? I thought one of the reasons this has been such a shitty virus is that the incubation period was up to 10 days or more and in that time people were wandering around not knowing they had it but also shedding the virus everywhere?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 05, 2021, 12:34:18 PM
If the incubation period is now reduced with this new variant then presumably thats a good thing? I thought one of the reasons this has been such a shitty virus is that the incubation period was up to 10 days or more and in that time people were wandering around not knowing they had it but also shedding the virus everywhere?

Yeah that was my next question actually. The fucker of this is it can be asymptomatic for a week and a half by which time I’ve returned from my glamorous jet-setting life and swanned off somewhere else. 3 days means a ~70% reduction in that dangerous “ooh I’m fine no actually I wasn’t, sorry about that” time?

Unless it’s “you (still) have a simple case for 2 weeks, but this new one means you’re infectious for a greater period of that time”?

Might be the stage of the virus where I admit I’m a virus dunce. I had a good run as an amateur virologist (and then as an amateur immunologist) though.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 05, 2021, 01:37:41 PM
But you are a cracking moneyman and baseball numbers - man
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 05, 2021, 03:42:55 PM
But you are a cracking moneyman and baseball numbers - man

Not to mention devilishly handsome and a dab hand at the mandolin.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 06, 2021, 10:22:10 AM
Quote
Asked how much more transmissible the new Delta variant of coronavirus is, Health Secretary Matt Hancock tells the Andrew Marr the best estimate of the "growth advantage" of the variant is 40%.

This makes life more challenging for everybody, he says.

But the level of hospitalisations is broadly flat right now, says Hancock.

The majority of those in hospitals have not had a vaccine at all. A "very small minority" have had both jabs.

The scientific advice shows that having one vaccine is not quite as effective against the Delta variant as against the most prevalent form of Covid-19 - but after both jabs, the protection is the same, adds Hancock.

Thanks Johnson for helping spread a 40% more transmissible varient in the UK by delaying putting India on the red list.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 06, 2021, 11:29:11 AM
And opening up society
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 06, 2021, 01:52:44 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3MWMDVWUAAxMmI?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 06, 2021, 02:22:53 PM
Source for that travesty ? I assume the shaded areas are the bounds around the predictions?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on June 06, 2021, 02:26:15 PM
Britain has had enough of attempts to quantify uncertainty.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 06, 2021, 02:26:41 PM
Britain has had enough of attempts to quantify uncertainty.

Is that a dig at my forthcoming preprint?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on June 06, 2021, 02:28:07 PM
Not knowingly!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 06, 2021, 02:33:12 PM
Source for that travesty ? I assume the shaded areas are the bounds around the predictions?

https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1401491359970758660

As is pointed out there it is based on the current very loose data and on several assumptions.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 06, 2021, 04:06:06 PM
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1401491359970758660

As is pointed out there it is based on the current very loose data and on several assumptions.

So he’s saying in ~10 days there will be more people in hospital than the peak of the 2nd wave? And by the end of June 14,000 will be in hospital with this?

Start your preddo clocks, I suppose (with the caveat that if it doesn’t happen, he is prosecuted in my imaginary court for his fucking tedious media doom-mongering).
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 06, 2021, 05:00:44 PM
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1401491359970758660

As is pointed out there it is based on the current very loose data and on several assumptions.

Oops, I work with them.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 06, 2021, 05:01:31 PM
So he’s saying in ~10 days there will be more people in hospital than the peak of the 2nd wave? And by the end of June 14,000 will be in hospital with this?

Start your preddo clocks, I suppose (with the caveat that if it doesn’t happen, he is prosecuted in my imaginary court for his fucking tedious media doom-mongering).

The 14,000 is the upper bound on the prediction. Look at the mean, it's a lot lower.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 06, 2021, 05:16:34 PM
The 14,000 is the upper bound on the prediction. Look at the mean, it's a lot lower.

Exactly - but is that what Joe bloggs takes from that graph? I’m assuming it is being shared entirely unironically with a snapshot-type understanding and without any explanations or subtweets.

Add in the “WE ARE NOW HERE” vs the more accurate “if you make a few assumptions, based on some charts from mid-May we might be here but there’s not really a way to tell” and it seems designed (accidentally or otherwise) to spread panic and anxiety. But oh, Ferris, that explanation of future hypothetical epidemiology wouldn’t really fit on a single graph and it would lose its impact - well then maybe he shouldn’t be trying to communicate hypothetical epidemiology via an attention-grabbing image on Twitter.

He’s welcome to his doom-preddo, but the method of communication shouldn’t be above critique.

One man’s opinion, other opinions are available.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on June 06, 2021, 05:23:35 PM
As the resident Joe Bloggs, intellectually speaking, can someone explain what the fuck that graph means in layman's terms?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 06, 2021, 05:29:07 PM
As the resident Joe Bloggs, intellectually speaking, can someone explain what the fuck that graph means in layman's terms?

TOTAL FUCKDOWN
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 06, 2021, 05:35:44 PM
As the resident Joe Bloggs, intellectually speaking, can someone explain what the fuck that graph means in layman's terms?

Best case scenario is we'll see a wave by the end of July thats a bit less than last Spring. Worst case scenario is as Chedney points out total fuckdown. I'm not quite sure how the worst case scenario comes about though. Presumably the delta variant being 70% or 80% more transmissible and and the vaccines being less effective than they currently seem to be? Or maybe a new vaccine avoiding variant springing up? Or both perhaps. 
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bakabaka on June 06, 2021, 05:39:10 PM
As the resident Joe Bloggs, intellectually speaking, can someone explain what the fuck that graph means in layman's terms?
More transmissable = more cases, and
Even more transmissable = even more cases, and
Yet more transmissable = yet more cases, and
Fuckton more transmissable = fuckton more cases.
But it will all be over in time for my birthday.

And this is what is important.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 06, 2021, 05:48:37 PM
I dont think its predicting any fuckdown. There will be increased hospitalisations - we’re already in that window now, lagging by about 18 days behind cases.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 06, 2021, 08:47:17 PM
Interesting stuff. There's a sense of pre-storm stillness to things. The beginning of murmurs about things not working out as hoped. Obviously I would rather the remaining sectors could safely reopen but I don't see the value in engaging the final step on 21st June unless there is some serious data backing up that what's happening in Bolton etc is a flash in the pan. Tbf, Bolton's cases are dropping as are Bedford's but it is now spreading regionally quite quickly. Perhaps hospitals will be able to cope this time if there is a lower ceiling, but seems very risky to leave them defenceless apart from 50% complete vaccine program. Leeds' own data is looking shit so I'm looking forward to my jab tomorrow.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 06, 2021, 08:57:15 PM
Yes, they were saying Delta has quite a rapid burn off, hence Bolton.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on June 07, 2021, 09:33:00 AM
That's the SAGE model from last month. Worth noting that it assumes vaccines/natural immunity as effective against the variant, which there seems to be fair indication they're not (at least until the second shot).

I dunno. I said a while back I think those models look too bad to be true, but it's hard to come up with reasons why they're pessimistic that haven't been factored in.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on June 09, 2021, 09:09:08 AM
Bad: exponential growth is back, primarily among younger people.
Good: Protection against the Delta Variant after one jab seems better than earlier thought.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351586786037763
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MrMrs on June 09, 2021, 10:30:28 AM
told ye
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 09, 2021, 10:30:31 AM
That's the SAGE model from last month. Worth noting that it assumes vaccines/natural immunity as effective against the variant, which there seems to be fair indication they're not (at least until the second shot).

I dunno. I said a while back I think those models look too bad to be true, but it's hard to come up with reasons why they're pessimistic that haven't been factored in.

First shot is around 50% for AZ, slightly higher for Pfizer, male lower than female. 2nd shot, both AZ and Pfizer shoot up to around 70-90% efficacy, with the same differenc between vaccine and gender.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 09, 2021, 10:32:35 AM
Bad: exponential growth is back, primarily among younger people.
Good: Protection against the Delta Variant after one jab seems better than earlier thought.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351586786037763

Quote
The latest data suggests that two doses of a vaccine offer very high protection against hospital admission, likely above 95%, and a single dose may also offer something in the region of 70% protection

Good news. But 70% was the top end (Pfizer, female) from the chart I saw (admittedly last week - on holiday this week).
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on June 09, 2021, 10:41:33 AM
First shot is around 50% for AZ, slightly higher for Pfizer, male lower than female. 2nd shot, both AZ and Pfizer shoot up to around 70-90% efficacy, with the same differenc between vaccine and gender.

The SAGE model is assuming a single dose is 80-85% efficacy and double dose 90-95% efficient at reducing hospital admissions.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 09, 2021, 01:19:09 PM
Best thing about that is that it's primarily among younger people.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Harry Badger on June 09, 2021, 01:56:11 PM
Assuming those rates of efficacy are correct, what percentage of the population needs both doses to keep things manageable or even achieve herd immunity?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 09, 2021, 02:17:58 PM
The SAGE model is assuming a single dose is 80-85% efficacy and double dose 90-95% efficient at reducing hospital admissions.

that is the model - the data was not that convincing
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on June 09, 2021, 02:27:51 PM
My point was the model that predicts a peak of around 5000 admissions a day from the previous day assumes vaccines are more effective than they appear to be.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 09, 2021, 02:32:47 PM
At the current rate of increase there will be around 24,000 cases a day in a month's time, similar data which caused the government to go into the November quasi-lockdown. I will still be a month away from my 2nd jab and I'm 34, so seems like we have potentially not got there in time to prevent another wave.

Difficult to compare as we appear to have a much more easily transmissible virus, yet also more testing happening than then, and specific age groups and regions currently affected. If there are regional bursts that die away and they don't all happen at the same time, perhaps hospitals might be able to cope?

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on June 09, 2021, 02:40:52 PM
I think the regional burst seemingly dying down quite quickly can be probably be attributed to the surge testing/vaccinations.

The hope now seems to be that vaccinations mean that there will be far fewer hospital admissions even with a big peak in cases. But it seems that there just isn't the data to support that yet. Feels like they're going to have to wait till the last minute before making a decision about the 21st.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on June 09, 2021, 02:47:54 PM
Several generally reliable people have retweeted this thread which models two scenarios for the UK based on current data: https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1401806768519405569.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 09, 2021, 02:50:16 PM
Surprised there's even a discussion. Current rules are producing these outcomes, so the only possible alternative outcomes a further reopening branded as 'Freedom Day' will produce are even worse ones.

In terms of hospital cases I'm happy to wait and see up to a point, but we should be looking at staying with the current rules, perhaps going back to April's if we have to, not looking at the current rules as something that we must urgently escape from.

If people respect the vaccine programme they also need to respect that it needs time to be completed.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 09, 2021, 02:54:59 PM
Several generally reliable people have retweeted this thread which models two scenarios for the UK based on current data: https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1401806768519405569.

Surely regardless of the status of the vaccine program or new variants we will see a rise in hospital admissions due to Covid related illness in winter. Surprised to see that model charts a low point in January/Feb.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on June 10, 2021, 07:13:23 AM
Several generally reliable people have retweeted this thread which models two scenarios for the UK based on current data: https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1401806768519405569.
I think what we can all agree on is twitter is terrible.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 10, 2021, 08:04:12 AM
Another variable is that young people will occupy beds for longer even if/because they don't die.

Are bunk vents an option?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 10, 2021, 08:15:15 AM
I think what we can all agree on is twitter is terrible.

Everybody's a learned expert now. Although some have more right to that, the structure and cadence of those twitter threads are appalling - like being 'schooled' by a particularly obnoxious toff.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 10, 2021, 08:59:12 AM
The SAGE and independent SAGE scientists I follow on Twitter have all been great during this pandemic. You get really important information right from the horses mouth, so to speak, without it being distilled via a BBC or press journalist who as likely as not has little understanding of what they're actually speaking about. Thank god I've had Twitter and not had to rely on No 10 press briefings during this pandemic, put it that way.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on June 10, 2021, 09:15:55 AM
Another variable is that young people will occupy beds for longer even if/because they don't die.

I think that's a bit of an unknown. I don't think old people were dying particularly quickly, even relatively minor issues can keep elderly people in hospitals for months, and it can often be difficult to find somewhere to safely discharge an old person. There was some optimistic NHS bod saying the younger admissions were a lot simpler and implied they were easier for the NHS to manage than the previous waves.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 10, 2021, 09:16:28 AM
^^

Yes, it's the SAGE scientists jobs, I would expect them to conduct themselves with due rigour. I've sat in one SAGE meeting and it was considered and thoughtful, as are all government science meetings I attend. It's all very collegiate.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 10, 2021, 09:25:03 AM
I think that's a bit of an unknown. I don't think old people were dying particularly quickly, even relatively minor issues can keep elderly people in hospitals for months, and it can often be difficult to find somewhere to safely discharge an old person. There was some optimistic NHS bod saying the younger admissions were a lot simpler and implied they were easier for the NHS to manage than the previous waves.

Thats good to hear. The talk over the last year was that the 30-50-something patients occupied beds for considerably longer than the 50+ patients and the buggers wouldn't die. Would be a bonus if they were in and out after a quick vent.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MoreauVasz on June 10, 2021, 09:30:15 AM
^^

Yes, it's the SAGE scientists jobs, I would expect them to conduct themselves with due rigour. I've sat in one SAGE meeting and it was considered and thoughtful, as are all government science meetings I attend. It's all very collegiate.

Except for the spirit cooking.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on June 10, 2021, 09:58:20 AM
I've sat in one SAGE meeting and it was considered and thoughtful, as are all government science meetings I attend. It's all very collegiate.
Unless you're from the Welsh or Scottish Governments in which case you're only allowed to attend as an observer.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on June 10, 2021, 10:00:17 AM
Was it SAGE or SPI-B that happily invited Cummings to sit and vet the conversation in 2020?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 10, 2021, 10:30:58 AM
Bit surprised I have to rely on my local paper to find this out:

Quote
Medical experts believe diarrhoea, hearing impairment and blood clots that can lead to gangrene have been linked to cases of infection from the Delta variant.

https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/national/uk-today/19362559.doctors-warn-3-new-covid-symptoms-linked-indian-variant/
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 10, 2021, 10:41:30 AM
Rare black fungus?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on June 10, 2021, 11:32:11 AM
Bit surprised I have to rely on my local paper to find this out:

https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/national/uk-today/19362559.doctors-warn-3-new-covid-symptoms-linked-indian-variant/

I think it's a bit non-news at the moment. Notice there's no attempt to quantify how common the "new symptoms" are. It's something that needs to be checked but it's been spun into a scare story. Everyone loves a bit of gangrene.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on June 10, 2021, 11:57:00 AM
I'm not sure they're exactly new. It's been known since early on that it infects your intestine and having a stomach upset is a well-established symptom. In a survey of people with long Covid, tinnitus was reported by 34% of people (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248802v2) along with other hearing issues. Covid toe and similar have also been reported for a long time but maybe sanitary conditions in some places in India make it more likely it could evolve into Gangrene?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 10, 2021, 11:03:52 PM
Brother being a tit about covid just because he wants to go on holiday to Greece. Please can someone point me to the latest predicting models concerning hospitalisations from a non-twitter social media source?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bakabaka on June 11, 2021, 08:34:55 AM
Brother being a tit about covid just because he wants to go on holiday to Greece. Please can someone point me to the latest predicting models concerning hospitalisations from a non-twitter social media source?
Mr. S? Shame on him.

This one on the BBC's story on it today (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57434493 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57434493)) is delightfully apocalyptic:
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/141DD/production/_118879328_continue_path2-nc.png)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on June 11, 2021, 08:40:32 AM
As Monday is the day when they are making the decision about further loosening restrictions I assume there will be a load of data released to support what is decided. I don't think there's been anything on the models from official sources in recent days.

That BBC story also makes the point that the infections and hospitalisations link is weakening.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 11, 2021, 08:48:53 AM
Unless you're from the Welsh or Scottish Governments in which case you're only allowed to attend as an observer.

or in my case, redacted from the minutes with zero glory.

What it has done is make the devolved administrations much more aggressive and proactive in their response. I dread to see the number of e-mails from Welsh government when I get back to work.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 11, 2021, 08:49:52 AM
Was it SAGE or SPI-B that happily invited Cummings to sit and vet the conversation in 2020?

If it wasn't for Cummings a lot of good stuff wouldn't have got green lit.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bakabaka on June 11, 2021, 09:11:44 AM
That BBC story also makes the point that the infections and hospitalisations link is weakening.

Shhh. He's looking for propaganda, not facts. A graph with a future line pointing to the sky is all that's needed; the accompanying text just muddies the water.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on June 11, 2021, 10:25:29 AM
If it wasn't for Cummings a lot of good stuff wouldn't have got green lit.
What the fuck is this? Long 'ViD?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 11, 2021, 10:37:45 AM
Shhh. He's looking for propaganda, not facts. A graph with a future line pointing to the sky is all that's needed; the accompanying text just muddies the water.

Not at all, I could have used the graphs from page 3 were that the case. All I am interested in highlighting is a) what exponential growth actually means and b) what a higher rate of transmission does for hospital numbers, hopefully from a reputable source that isn't using social media as a foghorn.

Ultimately we have gone into lockdown in the past to stop the NHS from being overwhelmed. If that's been the red line it still is the red line now, regardless of how much you want to fly to Greece or cough in people's faces on public transport.

The people clinging to the low death numbers and vaccine programme are the ones who appear to be in denial - not about the certainty of a fuckdown, but about the risk of one and the implications of it. Others of us want to find out what's happening and seek out information.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 11, 2021, 10:53:00 AM
What the fuck is this? Long 'ViD?

I sat in a meeting with his deputy (BW) and the guy was really supportive.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on June 11, 2021, 11:43:28 AM
Look forward to learning more. Maybe a short piece on The One Show?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 11, 2021, 09:21:37 PM
So going back to this graph then and the news today that Delta variant is 60% more transmissible.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3MWMDVWUAAxMmI?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on June 11, 2021, 11:57:47 PM
Wave 3 commences.

Hopefully, when the next deadly variant emerges, our government will bother to close the airports and borders, otherwise this will never end.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Natnar on June 12, 2021, 01:08:58 PM
I think they'll push "freedom day" back to July 19th, that'll be the first week of the kids summer holiday, there won't be schools worth of kids spreading stuff around to make the infection figure look as bad.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 12, 2021, 01:09:37 PM
Seems like a pretty sensible idea, to be honest.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on June 12, 2021, 01:37:58 PM
I think they'll push "freedom day" back to July 19th, that'll be the first week of the kids summer holiday, there won't be schools worth of kids spreading stuff around to make the infection figure look as bad.

Word is that's probably what they're going to do, with a (supposedly) data-dependent option to open up on July 5th to give people a bit of false hope.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 12, 2021, 01:45:13 PM
Word is that's probably what they're going to do, with a (supposedly) data-dependent option to open up on June 5th to give people a bit of false hope.

That was one week ago
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MrMrs on June 12, 2021, 02:05:50 PM
they obviously meant July ffs
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 12, 2021, 02:51:18 PM
they obviously meant July ffs

You again. Like clockwork. Mr and MrMrs show today
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on June 12, 2021, 04:00:50 PM
I obviously meant July ffs

(corrected)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 12, 2021, 05:22:43 PM
I obviously meant July ffs

(corrected)

Thanks.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: evilcommiedictator on June 13, 2021, 02:47:06 AM
Was reading an article in the Australian version of the BBC, talking to a Canadian about how they used to wish they were Australian (with the no COVID), but now with vaccinations they're getting back to normal and they're happy not to be us, and in the US they're down to less than 400 deaths a day, and I'm like, is this a plus?
Aren't you all getting ready for the Indian variant too, or have you cleverly blocked flights into greater North America (hahahaha)
Fingers crossed for you lot in the UK that it works out
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MrMrs on June 13, 2021, 09:54:05 AM
confused
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 13, 2021, 02:29:58 PM
Was reading an article in the Australian version of the BBC, talking to a Canadian about how they used to wish they were Australian (with the no COVID), but now with vaccinations they're getting back to normal and they're happy not to be us, and in the US they're down to less than 400 deaths a day, and I'm like, is this a plus?
Aren't you all getting ready for the Indian variant too, or have you cleverly blocked flights into greater North America (hahahaha)
Fingers crossed for you lot in the UK that it works out

It is far from normal in Canada, I don’t know anyone who thinks we’re getting back to that any time soon. My wife isn’t back at the office until September at the earliest and I’m not back in person at grad school until 2022.

We’re supposed to all have our 2nd shots by august (I think?) so improvements are on the way but I’ve only been allowed to leave my city for the last week.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MrMrs on June 14, 2021, 12:03:34 AM
Canada is a shit show?

worse position than the UK?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 14, 2021, 07:12:59 AM
Canada is a shit show?

worse position than the UK?

No
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chollis on June 14, 2021, 10:01:39 AM
Greggs now selling Cinnamon FUCKDOWN for 89p
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 16, 2021, 01:58:24 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/07/delta-variant-covid-england-vulnerable

Fuck, that's depressing.

Still, good someone is pointing out that it's not a case of 2 vaccines and off you go. By August it will have been several months since many vulnerable people's 2nd jab and they will already need to return for boosters ahead of winter.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 16, 2021, 05:26:54 PM
A prof at the uni where i worked is recovering from horrendous covid illness. Double vaxxed, under 60
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 16, 2021, 05:59:24 PM
Hope it's not that bad because I cbf getting a booster.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 16, 2021, 06:14:26 PM
Watching debate on BBC News. Lots of Tory MPs saying why they will vote against the extension and making cheap party political comments.

Not many ministers on the front bench
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 16, 2021, 07:33:30 PM
Extension went through 461 to 60
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 16, 2021, 07:49:47 PM
Over 9,000 cases today which will be in the top 10 globally, I think. Keep an eye on hospital numbers but if they do start to jump we are going back to April rules let alone opening everything up.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 17, 2021, 12:38:28 PM
List of Labour MPs who voted against the extension to restrictions

Quote
Bradshaw, rh Mr Ben
Gwynne, Andrew
Lewell-Buck, Mrs Emma
Spellar, rh John
Stringer, Graham
Twigg, Derek

The DUP were split on this like the Tories, with two DUP MPs voting for the extension and five against. Sausages Wilson voted against.

https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2021-06-16/division/5F1E0E94-7BD3-4C77-9F1F-2CF56416C72E/Coronavirus?outputType=Party#party-yesDemocraticUnionistPartyAyes
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 17, 2021, 04:05:08 PM
11,007 reported cases today
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 17, 2021, 05:37:06 PM
Not looking good
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on June 17, 2021, 08:13:32 PM
There's not gonna be another lockdown lads, people can't be fucked
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on June 17, 2021, 08:15:27 PM
Won't need to be, for everyone will be dead
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Blinder Data on June 17, 2021, 08:16:52 PM
There's not gonna be another lockdown lads, people can't be fucked

sadly I think you're sort of right. securing people's consent for another will be v difficult. "I've had my two jabs, sod the rules". boomers gonna boom.

I'm going to a fucking WEDDING next weekend. not one of these intimate small ones either now the limit on numbers has increased. no singing or drinking/eating upright. gonna be fucking weird
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on June 17, 2021, 08:21:58 PM
Have to say, if you'd have told the govt and the behavioural scientists back in March 2020 that the upper limit for people's tolerance for controls was somewhere around June/July 2021 they'd have been aghast. It's lasted far longer with far better adherence than anyone expected.

Even now the no mask cunts and the denier cranks are a minority but I get a real feeling people, normal people who have been wearing masks and not seeing their friends and so on have had it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 17, 2021, 09:13:12 PM
Hospital numbers don't work by consent. If it rages it rages, so you either protect the NHS and the vulnerable or learn what a real fuckdown looks like.

Consent will come by virtue of the circumstances presented, see January if in doubt. See Bovine masses if still in doubt.

Also, shitloads of cases increase the chances of further vaccine escaping variants. There are no palatable options, only the least shitty.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on June 17, 2021, 09:17:47 PM
Can't wait to see if he fucks up Christmas again.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 17, 2021, 09:22:38 PM
I'm having an operation in a month, will lock me down for about two months so get ready for some real Rear Window shit 😂😂😂
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on June 17, 2021, 09:34:34 PM
Hospital numbers don't work by consent. If it rages it rages, so you either protect the NHS and the vulnerable or learn what a real fuckdown looks like.

Consent will come by virtue of the circumstances presented, see January if in doubt. See Bovine masses if still in doubt.

Also, shitloads of cases increase the chances of further vaccine escaping variants. There are no palatable options, only the least shitty.

Oh the evidence from Sweden is that a good % of the population lock themselves down regardless of what the govt say and that'll happen if things get worse here, but the days of the govt telling us to do it are done.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: peanutbutter on June 17, 2021, 10:06:46 PM
I can kinda understand people being a bit pissed off right now but I sense a lot of it is coming from a fear that this will bleed into the far side of summer and then a rush of restrictions to try and "save Christmas" only for a Christmas exemption period to result in another 4-5 months of restrictions.

I can't see them increasing restrictions again from where they're at now unless it's to do with children going back to school after the break.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 17, 2021, 10:32:51 PM
Oh the evidence from Sweden is that a good % of the population lock themselves down regardless of what the govt say and that'll happen if things get worse here, but the days of the govt telling us to do it are done.

Brave preddo mate
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 17, 2021, 11:04:19 PM
There's not gonna be another lockdown lads, people can't be fucked

Yeah it’s done. “I got mine (vaccine) so sod the lot of you”.

Seriously doubt anywhere in the west has the political will to lockdown again - at this point we are getting our shots and taking our chances, delta variant or not.

Don’t know what the alternative is though. It’s all fucked. Entering TOTAL FUCKDOWN.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 17, 2021, 11:15:53 PM
Oh the evidence from Sweden is that a good % of the population lock themselves down regardless of what the govt say and that'll happen if things get worse here, but the days of the govt telling us to do it are done.

If the equivalent happens in the UK I will eat my collection of baseball caps.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MrMrs on June 17, 2021, 11:56:14 PM
Brave preddo mate

what's the point in posting this type of thing. stop shitting up the thread
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 18, 2021, 06:28:04 AM
what's the point in posting this type of thing. stop shitting up the thread

Sorry, will try to post more like you
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 18, 2021, 06:31:47 AM
Quote
Seriously doubt anywhere in the west has the political will to lockdown again -

It's not about political will, it's about actual present reality in terms of icu numbers, beds etc. The red line has been ensuring the health service doesn't collapse and will continue to be. Clearly there will be a degree of denial and dismay in the public and probably government to contend with.

I certainly hope it won't be necessary and certainly hope the tide turns against the Tories if it does.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 18, 2021, 06:35:04 AM
Cases DOUBLED from this time last week

Deaths MORE THAN DOUBLED from this time last week

Fair play, headed for the final fuckdown.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 18, 2021, 06:40:47 AM
Deaths still at the level of statistical noise
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MrMrs on June 18, 2021, 10:01:40 AM
Sorry, will try to post more like you

you could never
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on June 18, 2021, 10:25:02 AM
Cases DOUBLED from this time last week

Deaths MORE THAN DOUBLED from this time last week

Fair play, headed for the final fuckdown.

Where are you getting that death rate from?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 18, 2021, 01:19:50 PM
Can't remember, some idiot on Twitter
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 18, 2021, 07:27:05 PM
According to worldometers it's 42% up.

55 deaths last weeks 78 this week
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MrMrs on June 19, 2021, 12:05:42 AM
sounds sus
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: shiftwork2 on June 19, 2021, 12:57:03 AM
Well done on being a worse Remain Indoors poster than Chedney Honks.

That takes some push, some juice, some verve.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 19, 2021, 08:46:40 AM
Well done on being a worse Remain Indoors poster than Chedney Honks.

That takes some push, some juice, some verve.

Unlike bosto, they mean it
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on June 19, 2021, 02:10:43 PM
Brave preddo mate

I mean pretty clearly everyone in here won't be going out licking the handrails on the bus if we get back to 50k cases a day or whatever. That's a percentage. Whatever the percentage was in Sweden it was enough that their economy was just as fucked, maybe even more, as the Scandinavian lockdown countries.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 22, 2021, 11:29:57 AM
Handcock not seeming too arsed about case numbers in respect of the hospitalisations this morning. Hopefully vaccines are doing the job of greatly reducing serious illness, but there's a gap between some of the more doom-laden modelling I looked at and the general Gov messaging.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 22, 2021, 11:34:27 AM
https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1406375457105321986?s=19

There’s also this
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 22, 2021, 10:14:17 PM
I've kind of got the impression over the last few days that for a lot of people, possibly a majority of people, this pandemic is either officially over or in its last few weeks.

What could possibly go wrong now eh folks?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MrMrs on June 23, 2021, 12:03:07 AM
it is over, by and large
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 23, 2021, 06:07:38 AM
Tell that to Delta Plus, buddy.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7971273/covid-variant-delta-plus-india/

Get your TJ before it's too late.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 23, 2021, 07:08:29 AM
MrMrs will be alright, his soul already resides in hell
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 23, 2021, 08:41:07 AM
I've kind of got the impression over the last few days that for a lot of people, possibly a majority of people, this pandemic is either officially over or in its last few weeks.

What could possibly go wrong now eh folks?

Certainly seems to be the attitude on the buses. Barely anyone wearing a mask, but a few chins had extra protection. Very frustrating. Bus drivers round here don't enforce the mask rules.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 23, 2021, 08:44:10 AM
I enforce it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 23, 2021, 09:02:05 AM
UK 8th in the world for cases yesterday, stories about A&E's close to breaking point seemingly related to GP surgeries trying to avoid face to face consultations, and Covid related hospitalisations rising by 10-30% a week, albeit still from a low level.

I certainly hope the vaccine program accelerates from here and the vulnerable get their Clotbooster in the Autumn.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MrMrs on June 23, 2021, 09:05:15 AM
MrMrs will be alright, his soul already resides in hell

genuinely mental thing to say to someone
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on June 23, 2021, 09:54:00 AM
UK 8th in the world for cases yesterday, stories about A&E's close to breaking point seemingly related to GP surgeries trying to avoid face to face consultations

I went in my GPs yesterday to drop off my opt out forms and it was dead. Literally no one in the massive waiting room at all.

Either everyone's feeling great or they're all dead?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on June 23, 2021, 09:59:58 AM
Most GP surgeries doing phone triage now, you only go in if they decide it's necessary.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on June 23, 2021, 10:10:50 AM
Good point. Interesting to see how many of those previous appointments must've been unnecessary. Or have those who haven't got the patience to navigate the phone or online system given up trying to get through? My GPs eSystem isn't very user friendly. 
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on June 23, 2021, 12:00:40 PM
Good point. Interesting to see how many of those previous appointments must've been unnecessary. Or have those who haven't got the patience to navigate the phone or online system given up trying to get through? My GPs eSystem isn't very user friendly.

That's what the problems with Accident and Emergency would suggest. Unfortunately I think a lot of people won't be satisfied with a phone call, even if that is all they need.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on June 23, 2021, 12:48:03 PM
Do you think they are going to A&E as they can't get a GP appointment (for something that the GP surgery would've been able to handle) or they've left it too late for an appointment with the GP and it's now an emergency?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bakabaka on June 23, 2021, 01:03:16 PM
Do you think they are going to A&E as they can't get a GP appointment (for something that the GP surgery would've been able to handle) or they've left it too late for an appointment with the GP and it's now an emergency?
Yes.
Which is why A&Es are busier than they ever have been before.
Which is why they have more people with mental health problems going to A&E.
Which is why the government is bringing in legislation to put police in A&Es with specific remit to arrest people with mental health problems who are causing problems because A&Es don't have the staff to cope.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 23, 2021, 01:27:42 PM
Quote
NHS bosses have sounded the alarm over the number of people on ventilators in hospital in the UK, which has risen over the past week.

The deputy chief executive of NHS Providers, Saffron Cordery, said the number of Covid patients in hospital on ventilation beds had increased by 41% in the last week to 227, which she said was a strong indication Covid was having an impact on health services.

Cordery told BBC Breakfast: “Trusts on the frontline are really coming under huge pressure ... they have plans in place to tackle the backlog, but with more Covid cases and demand for emergency care going up, that’s really challenging.”

Cordery said NHS leaders were already worrying about the potential for a Covid surge to collide with other winter illnesses such as flu and respiratory viruses later in the year, posing “a significant challenge” to the health system...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/23/nhs-alarm-rise-number-uk-covid-patients-ventilators
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on June 23, 2021, 02:14:22 PM
I'm surprised they didn't do anything to increase hospital or ventilator capacity after the first wave. It's not like they haven't been telling us the whole time that there's another wave just around the corner.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on June 23, 2021, 02:15:12 PM
Yes.
Which is why A&Es are busier than they ever have been before.
Which is why they have more people with mental health problems going to A&E.
Which is why the government is bringing in legislation to put police in A&Es with specific remit to arrest people with mental health problems who are causing problems because A&Es don't have the staff to cope.

Well, at least they made it easier to section people under the new covid rules.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 23, 2021, 02:25:40 PM
I'm surprised they didn't do anything to increase hospital or ventilator capacity after the first wave. It's not like they haven't been telling us the whole time that there's another wave just around the corner.

I presume there was no chance of making the relative of a Tory MP or a Tory donor richer by doing this so they just didn't bother.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on June 23, 2021, 02:42:26 PM
I was under the impression that ventilator availability isn't the issue but rather the staff to provide 24he care to the people on them.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 23, 2021, 03:22:02 PM
I wouldn’t presume to tell people in the UK how it’s going (I’m not that fucking presumptuous) but I do feel a bit like I’m looking at different data than everyone else.

Cases are increasing, no question:

(https://i.imgur.com/uz5WQh1.jpg)

But it seems like the vaccination program is working well and deaths are staying low. I suppose they typically come 2-3 weeks after case spikes so maybe that’s why.

…well deaths are one thing, what about people getting severe cases (being admitted to hospital and straining the NHS)?

(https://i.imgur.com/D3dw72k.jpg)

They seem… not ideal, obviously, but manageable? I don’t know, I’m sure I’m missing something here because everyone is agreeing this is A Monster Fuckdown but so far it looks alright?

I’m not trying to downplay the severity of all this (and of course, waves look tiny before they spike very rapidly) but I think the July date to lift restrictions[1] is probably still on the table.
 1. while some stuff like masks, social distancing, regular testing, continuing the vaccine rollout etc etc should obviously continue where practicable
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 23, 2021, 03:22:58 PM
genuinely mental thing to say to someone

Anyone but you
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 23, 2021, 03:26:48 PM
I wouldn’t presume to tell people in the UK how it’s going (I’m not that fucking presumptuous) but I do feel a bit like I’m looking at different data than everyone else.

Cases are increasing, no question:

(https://i.imgur.com/uz5WQh1.jpg)

But it seems like the vaccination program is working well and deaths are staying low. I suppose they typically come 2-3 weeks after case spikes so maybe that’s why.

…well deaths are one thing, what about people getting severe cases (being admitted to hospital and straining the NHS)?

(https://i.imgur.com/D3dw72k.jpg)

They seem… not ideal, obviously, but manageable? I don’t know, I’m sure I’m missing something here because everyone is agreeing this is A Monster Fuckdown but so far it looks alright?

I’m not trying to downplay the severity of all this (and of course, waves look tiny before they spike very rapidly) but I think the July date to lift restrictions[1] is probably still on the table.
 1. while some stuff like masks, social distancing, regular testing, continuing the vaccine rollout etc etc should obviously continue where practicable

From what you’ve posted i would quite simply say “its off the table”
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 23, 2021, 03:33:51 PM
From what you’ve posted i would quite simply say “its off the table”

Interesting - why? You have much more experience at looking at these things so would be interested in your opinion (though feel free to tell me to push off or keep it brief), I’m a neophyte who sees a line going up and another one going down and feel like I’m not really grasping what they mean, or rather I know what they mean but not the potential future implications of it all.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 23, 2021, 06:55:53 PM
Quote from: Ferris
everyone is agreeing this is A Monster Fuckdown but so far it looks alright?

Has anyone, let alone everyone?

There's legitimate concern and the concern is that hospitalisations are rising during a period where A&E is being stretched for other reasons and UK cases are rising to a globally high level. Alone, takeoff like this brings concerns this will create new variants which vaccines don't cover as well.

In addition to this there is modelling from credible sources, that shouldn't be taken as a given, but isn't good.

What's happening now in terms of deaths and hospitalisations as relevant, as what today's numbers will produce in a fortnight, and more broadly, where we will be in mid-July into August.

I don't think there's enough information to make any kind of firm call but if I absolutely had to I predict there will be a shallow wave of hospitalisations and deaths going into 100+ per day at their peak and something new that comes along that weakens the defences (it has so far at least every 6 months). That might be containable without a further lockdown this summer, but either way it's right to take it seriously and not think 'it's over' or 'it's going to be alright'. Let's hang tight and stay cautious.

I agree and it isn't really contested that the vaccination program is suppressing serious illness and that we have and will feel the benefit of that regardless of what happens from here.

At least you're arguing in good faith and worth arguing with :)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 23, 2021, 07:12:01 PM
16,000 cases today.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 23, 2021, 07:59:03 PM
Blimey we're already got a Delta Plus variant in this country. This virus doesn't fuck about does it?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 23, 2021, 08:07:11 PM
Has anyone, let alone everyone?

There's legitimate concern and the concern is that hospitalisations are rising during a period where A&E is being stretched for other reasons and UK cases are rising to a globally high level. Alone, takeoff like this brings concerns this will create new variants which vaccines don't cover as well.

In addition to this there is modelling from credible sources, that shouldn't be taken as a given, but isn't good.

What's happening now in terms of deaths and hospitalisations as relevant, as what today's numbers will produce in a fortnight, and more broadly, where we will be in mid-July into August.

I don't think there's enough information to make any kind of firm call but if I absolutely had to I predict there will be a shallow wave of hospitalisations and deaths going into 100+ per day at their peak and something new that comes along that weakens the defences (it has so far at least every 6 months). That might be containable without a further lockdown this summer, but either way it's right to take it seriously and not think 'it's over' or 'it's going to be alright'. Let's hang tight and stay cautious.

I agree and it isn't really contested that the vaccination program is suppressing serious illness and that we have and will feel the benefit of that regardless of what happens from here.

At least you're arguing in good faith and worth arguing with :)

I pay so little attention to British media it’s like listening to a record but the needle only drops for a few seconds at a time, then trying to work out the chord progression to play along with - I’ll cheerfully admit I don’t have my finger on the pulse but I thought everyone was considering this Fuckdown Four Point Oh.

You’re right - we’ll all have to wait and see I suppose, but for the record yeah I think your shout of a few hundred goners a day is probably about right (which in fairness, is Fuckdown territory).
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 23, 2021, 08:12:38 PM
My cousin has had two AZ jabs and has tested positive for Covid today, with mild symptoms. He lives with his dad who's undergoing treatment for prostate cancer. Thanks very much, young people spitting directly into each other's mouths. Keep it up.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on June 23, 2021, 08:20:10 PM
Ha ha this is never, ever, going to end lol
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on June 23, 2021, 08:25:59 PM
Just get Covid done. Get it done.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on June 23, 2021, 08:28:16 PM
I went to the pub on Monday and sat inside drinking for ages. People cannot live like that. It must END. NOW.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on June 23, 2021, 09:09:56 PM
Feels fucking terrible to be British and to be at the bleeding edge of every single "oh fuck" moment in the pandemic doesn't it. Fucking hell. It's like we're in a horror movie and we get to the bit where everything seems ok and then the monster's eyes open but it happens over and over again. Fucking Boris.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 23, 2021, 09:52:32 PM
I don't know about you guys but I'm really optimistic that the end is in sight. Liberation day here we come.....

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E4l6v29XoAQMUfw?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 23, 2021, 10:10:48 PM
Very different trajectories due to our January lockdown measures so a very stilted and misleading graph.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 23, 2021, 10:16:18 PM
I don't know about you guys but I'm really optimistic that the end is in sight. Liberation day here we come.....

Them countries won't be laughing when they get Delta plus.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: katzenjammer on June 23, 2021, 10:16:43 PM
They covered the Delta variant and rising cases on this week’s More or Less. IIRC only 10% of hospitalisations are people vaccinated. Hospital admissions are generally younger than in previous waves so they tend to recover and stays are shorter. The reason for concern is that due to the large number of people who aren’t fully vaccinated hospitals might still get overwhelmed if the variant can spread fast enough.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 23, 2021, 10:42:32 PM
Sounds about right, also wide prevalence in the population puts vulnerable people closer to harm, even with their vaccinations (some of which were completed over 3 months ago now).

This is not something we want being carried by 100s of thousands of the population and we're dumb to assume a 60% complete vaccine campaign (that when finally complete leaves the most vulnerable the longest since they had a jab) automatically saves everyone and facilitates normal life.

First stage of dealing with bad news is getting past denial.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on June 23, 2021, 10:55:51 PM
Any other Delia Derbyshire fans hoping the government sets up a unit to investigate the Delta Plus variant?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 23, 2021, 11:54:01 PM
Sounds about right, also wide prevalence in the population puts vulnerable people closer to harm, even with their vaccinations (some of which were completed over 3 months ago now).

This is not something we want being carried by 100s of thousands of the population and we're dumb to assume a 60% complete vaccine campaign (that when finally complete leaves the most vulnerable the longest since they had a jab) automatically saves everyone and facilitates normal life.

First stage of dealing with bad news is getting past denial.

Yeah but all those people over 60 who reliably vote conservative are vulnerable and we must protect are probably mostly alright now so does Boris give two shits?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Beagle 2 on June 24, 2021, 11:31:30 AM
My colleague had both doses of the Pfizer vaccine and held a dinner party a couple of weeks back. Everybody present came down with the 'vid, some were vaxxed and some not. He does say that those who were vaxxed only got it mildly compared to the non-vaxxed though. Which is nice.

Still, masks off and full snog (https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-no-legal-compulsion-to-wear-face-masks-when-restrictions-are-lifted-minister-says-12340495)s in three weeks.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 24, 2021, 11:42:27 AM
Quote
Asked if he would continue to wear a face covering beyond that point, the minister replied: "I wouldn't, no. I have to be honest, once I'm told it's safe not to, I want to get back to normal.


"I think a lot of people will want to shed those masks.

That Sky article is really scary. It's stressful enough on buses as it is, and it'll be even more risky from the 19th July onwards if hardly anyone is wearing a mask. Linking not wearing a mask with getting back to normal makes me worry about how others will react when I continue to wear my mask. Hopefully I'll get my second dose on the 16th July but even then doesn't it take a few weeks for protection?

Quote
Speaking to MPs last week, Public Health England's Dr Susan Hopkins said there will be more emphasis on personal risk and responsibility once COVID restrictions are lifted.

"I think we will all need to make decisions for ourselves, particularly on wearing masks, using better ventilation, hand hygiene," she told MPs on the Commons Science and Technology Committee.

This ignores that deciding whether to wear a mask isn't just making a decision for yourself, it's about the people around you as well. They want to stop people working from home and have them commute into work but they also want to make their commute as risky as possible.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on June 24, 2021, 02:08:45 PM
My cousin has had two AZ jabs and has tested positive for Covid today, with mild symptoms. He lives with his dad who's undergoing treatment for prostate cancer. Thanks very much, young people spitting directly into each other's mouths. Keep it up.

My colleague had both doses of the Pfizer vaccine and held a dinner party a couple of weeks back. Everybody present came down with the 'vid, some were vaxxed and some not. He does say that those who were vaxxed only got it mildly compared to the non-vaxxed though. Which is nice.

Still, masks off and full snog (https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-no-legal-compulsion-to-wear-face-masks-when-restrictions-are-lifted-minister-says-12340495)s in three weeks.

I keep trying to rebook my 2nd pfizer to get it earlier, but honestly - is there any fucking point in these effluent-grade wastes of everyone's time.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on June 24, 2021, 02:22:39 PM
You can have a dinner party of six people can't you? Whether you should or not you are following government guidelines.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 24, 2021, 04:43:25 PM
Quote
Speaking to the Times's CEO summit, Mr Sunak was asked if he expected to stop wearing a mask when it became legal not do so.

"Yes, as soon as possible," he replied. "Things are looking good for 19 July... and my strong expectation is we can lift these major restrictions then and get back to normal."

In fairness the tourism minister (didn't know we had one) says he will still keep wearing a mask on the Underground.

Also, I'm not sure how Sunak can say things are looking good for 19th July with cases still rising, a jump of 5,000 cases yesterday.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: stonkers on June 24, 2021, 05:10:00 PM
I keep trying to rebook my 2nd pfizer to get it earlier, but honestly - is there any fucking point in these effluent-grade wastes of everyone's time.

The point of the vaccines is not primarily to stop people getting the vid (though they do reduce transmission), it's to stop them getting hospitalised / dying if they do get it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on June 24, 2021, 05:30:00 PM
HOPELESS
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 24, 2021, 05:38:29 PM
Use of long covid being replaced by persistent and substantial life altering illness in todays meeting
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Claude the Racecar Driving Rockstar Super Sleuth on June 24, 2021, 05:44:34 PM
The point of the vaccines is not primarily to stop people getting the vid (though they do reduce transmission), it's to stop them getting hospitalised / dying if they do get it.
A friend of mine flat refuses to get jabbed, apparently for no better reason than semantic quibbling. Last time we talked about it, they produced the dictionary definition of vaccine - "A substance which provides immunity to disease" - before confidently stating that the jabs aren't vaccines because they don't provide 100% immunity. I made much the same point about them keeping people out of the hospital, but it seemed to fall on wilfully deaf ears. I think some conspiraloon types may have been in their ear.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: stonkers on June 24, 2021, 05:55:44 PM
A friend of mine flat refuses to get jabbed, apparently for no better reason than semantic quibbling. Last time we talked about it, they produced the dictionary definition of vaccine - "A substance which provides immunity to disease" - before confidently stating that the jabs aren't vaccines because they don't provide 100% immunity. I made much the same point about them keeping people out of the hospital, but it seemed to fall on wilfully deaf ears. I think some conspiraloon types may have been in their ear.

That's not even semantics, it's just wrong. I don't know anything about this, like steveh I'm just selectively following people who do on Twitter, but as far as I understand it the Covid vaccines are some of the most effective vaccines ever produced for anything.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 24, 2021, 06:15:47 PM
Today's:

New cases
16,703, up 5,693 from this time last week

Hospital numbers
1533, up 304 from this time last week

Deaths
21 up 2 from last week

Weekly (from Worldometers)
UK 39th biggest rise in cases week on week (44%) and 9th highest total number of detected cases in the world.

101 deaths in last 7 days versus 66 last week.

Portugal currently reassessing admitting British tourists.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 24, 2021, 06:19:18 PM
A friend of mine flat refuses to get jabbed, apparently for no better reason than semantic quibbling. Last time we talked about it, they produced the dictionary definition of vaccine - "A substance which provides immunity to disease" - before confidently stating that the jabs aren't vaccines because they don't provide 100% immunity. I made much the same point about them keeping people out of the hospital, but it seemed to fall on wilfully deaf ears. I think some conspiraloon types may have been in their ear.

What kind of argument even is that? There is no connecting logic between that and "....so I won't be getting this injection".

I won't use condoms because they are 99.8% effective.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: peanutbutter on June 24, 2021, 06:22:47 PM
Producing the dictionary definition is some Ben Shapiro type shit, isn't it? doubtless have some really fucking dumb reasons for it but they know they'll be perceived that way so they're trying to talk around it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 24, 2021, 06:47:47 PM
Today's:

New cases
16,703, up 5,693 from this time last week

Hospital numbers
1533, up 304 from this time last week

Deaths
21 up 2 from last week

Weekly (from Worldometers)
UK 39th biggest rise in cases week on week (44%) and 9th highest total number of detected cases in the world.

101 deaths in last 7 days versus 66 last week.

Portugal currently reassessing admitting British tourists.

Last week's 'statistical noise' looking more and more like TFD4.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 24, 2021, 07:38:48 PM
Today's:

New cases
16,703, up 5,693 from this time last week

Hospital numbers
1533, up 304 from this time last week

Deaths
21 up 2 from last week

Weekly (from Worldometers)
UK 39th biggest rise in cases week on week (44%) and 9th highest total number of detected cases in the world.

101 deaths in last 7 days versus 66 last week.

Portugal currently reassessing admitting British tourists.

But man from TOURIST INDUSTRY on LOCAL 'NEWS' said "TRAVELLERS SHOULD HAVE NO CONCERNS AND SHOULD GET READY TO HAVE 'FUN IN THE SUN'"
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 24, 2021, 07:39:44 PM
Last week's 'statistical noise' looking more and more like TFD4.

(https://see.fontimg.com/api/renderfont4/vmWM/eyJyIjoiZnMiLCJoIjoxMzAsInciOjIwMDAsImZzIjo2NSwiZmdjIjoiIzAwMDAwMCIsImJnYyI6IiNGRkZGRkYiLCJ0IjoxfQ/Tm90IGFyc2VkLCBzaWcybm9pc2U/taco-salad.png)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 24, 2021, 09:58:25 PM
Graveraper: Summer of The Graveraper (2021)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 25, 2021, 09:16:25 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jun/25/ae-units-in-uk-report-rapid-rise-in-childrens-infections

Seems it is a mixture of parents worrying it might be covid and quite a high number that do in fact need serious attention.

Or over in the Telegraph you can enjoy Fraser Nelson's latest poison on why we are having restrictions for a 'largely defeated virus'.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 25, 2021, 09:23:26 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/25/israel-resumes-indoor-mask-requirement-after-rise-in-covid-cases

Due to the vaccine protection it is going to take a much higher number of cases and prevalence of covid in the general population to cause anywhere near similar hospitalisations. Enter the significantly more infectious Delta variant.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on June 25, 2021, 10:03:31 AM
There's a couple of new papers on the Delta Variant which confirm greater vaccine escape and also that it is resistant to one of the treatments used. Not as bad as the Beta Variant from South Africa but it is more transmissible than that.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.23.449568v1
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-637724/v1

While the connection between cases and hospitalisation is apparently gradually weakening, July would seem to be optimistic for reopening everything.

Had assumed before that long Covid cases were in much the same age range as those who had more severe disease, but there's a paper on it from Norway (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01433-3) that says half of 16-30yos who didn't need hospitalisation still have symptoms after 6 months.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 25, 2021, 10:53:05 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jun/25/ae-units-in-uk-report-rapid-rise-in-childrens-infections

Seems it is a mixture of parents worrying it might be covid and quite a high number that do in fact need serious attention.

Or over in the Telegraph you can enjoy Fraser Nelson's latest poison on why we are having restrictions for a 'largely defeated virus'.

Myocarditis appears to be a problem
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 25, 2021, 10:55:24 AM
There's a couple of new papers on the Delta Variant which confirm greater vaccine escape and also that it is resistant to one of the treatments used. Not as bad as the Beta Variant from South Africa but it is more transmissible than that.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.23.449568v1
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-637724/v1

While the connection between cases and hospitalisation is apparently gradually weakening, July would seem to be optimistic for reopening everything.

Had assumed before that long Covid cases were in much the same age range as those who had more severe disease, but there's a paper on it from Norway (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01433-3) that says half of 16-30yos who didn't need hospitalisation still have symptoms after 6 months.

Cant share the data but the major persistent symptoms we are seeing in Uk (and look ‘permanent’) are fatigue and breathlessness
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on June 25, 2021, 11:21:34 AM
That paper has for the whole survey population at 6 months:

Fatigue (37%)
Difficulty concentrating (26%)
Disturbed smell and/or taste (25%)
Memory problems (24%)
Dyspnea [breathlessness] (21%)

Those are people who had symptomatic illness at home.

15 months on from having Covid and my own breathing still isn't back to what it was before. With original SARS it took a decade for people to get full lung function back.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 25, 2021, 11:48:04 AM
That paper has for the whole survey population at 6 months:

Fatigue (37%)
Difficulty concentrating (26%)
Disturbed smell and/or taste (25%)
Memory problems (24%)
Dyspnea [breathlessness] (21%)

Those are people who had symptomatic illness at home.

15 months on from having Covid and my own breathing still isn't back to what it was before. With original SARS it took a decade for people to get full lung function back.

Hoping for a speedy recovery… just like Prince Phil in his CaB thread
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 25, 2021, 12:09:12 PM
Or over in the Telegraph you can enjoy Fraser Nelson's latest poison on why we are having restrictions for a 'largely defeated virus'.

Even I think this kind of reporting is dangerous guff. The US coverage similarly feels like it is beamed in from another reality (which I suppose in a way, it is).

American media descriptions of the virus could be applied to a CaBber’s hairline - receding, largely defeated, and to be taken less seriously than ever before.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on June 25, 2021, 12:10:12 PM
Any information yet on how vaccination affects the likelihood/severity/longevity of long-term symptoms?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on June 25, 2021, 01:06:17 PM
If nothing else, they're more likely if you're not dead.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 25, 2021, 04:58:19 PM
Today's:

New cases
15,810, up 5,334 from this time last week

Hospital numbers
1485, up 232 from this time last week

Deaths
18 up 7 from last week

In the last seven days, 90,511 people tested positive - an increase of 47.9% on the previous week. 110 people have died in the last seven days - a 52.8% rise on the previous week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57610999

BBC pushing that link is broken/weakened by vaccines between infection and hospitalisations + death. Uncontroversial statement but what really matters is by how much when factoring in this new much more infectious variant.

Weekly (from Worldometers)
UK 39th biggest rise in cases week on week (44%) and 9th highest total number of detected cases in the world.

101 deaths in last 7 days versus 66 last week.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 25, 2021, 05:11:27 PM
Quote from: Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organisation (WHO)
"New variants are expected and will continue to be reported – that’s what viruses do, they evolve - but we can prevent the emergence of variants by preventing #COVID19 transmission.
It’s quite simple: more transmission, more variants.
Less transmission, less variants"-@DrTedros

Or you could trust the libertarian poison being sold to you by the smegma-faced cunt Fraser Nelson of The Telegraph.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 25, 2021, 05:20:11 PM
Quote
Tedros, WHO director-general, has said that the global community is failing, making the same mistakes as with HIV-Aids, reports Reuters.

Having unprotected anal sex to amazing music?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 25, 2021, 05:21:32 PM
So thats me sent home from work to self isolate for 10 days. Work colleague was feeling unwell earlier in the week, said it was just a cold but tested positive yesterday, was double vaxxed a while ago. Now I'm home shoving a lateral flow test kit up all available orifices. 

I'm presuming I've got it and its just a matter of time before I feel unwell. I've had one vaccine dose but was in close proximity of said infected colleague over a few days. 
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on June 25, 2021, 05:22:38 PM
Any information yet on how vaccination affects the likelihood/severity/longevity of long-term symptoms?

Haven't seen anything with such a breakdown.

BBC pushing that link is broken/weakened by vaccines between infection and hospitalisations + death. Uncontroversial statement but what really matters is by how much when factoring in this new much more infectious variant.

Today's PHE report (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/996740/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf) quotes 96% vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation for the Delta Variant with two doses, 80% with one dose. Against symptomatic disease it's 79% with two doses, 35% with one.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 25, 2021, 05:46:45 PM
Got my eye on this new Lambda variant. Its a bit of a cheeky upstart amongst covid variants but its got the potential to show Delta who's boss.

 https://amp.thenationalnews.com/world/europe/lambda-variant-uk-finds-six-cases-of-new-coronavirus-strain-first-identified-in-peru-1.1248657?__twitter_impression=true

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 25, 2021, 05:53:33 PM
Yes, we picked that up 2 or 3 weeks ago in WW.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 25, 2021, 06:21:27 PM
So thats me sent home from work to self isolate for 10 days. Work colleague was feeling unwell earlier in the week, said it was just a cold but tested positive yesterday, was double vaxxed a while ago. Now I'm home shoving a lateral flow test kit up all available orifices. 

I'm presuming I've got it and its just a matter of time before I feel unwell. I've had one vaccine dose but was in close proximity of said infected colleague over a few days.

Sorry to hear that, mobias. I hope you don't get it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on June 25, 2021, 06:22:14 PM
First identified in Peru?

Llama variant more like!!!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 25, 2021, 06:30:23 PM
Sorry to hear that, mobias. I hope you don't get it.

Thanks. I'll get a week off work at least. Lots of gaming ahead I guess.

First identified in Peru?

Llama variant more like!!!

That did make me laugh.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Harry Badger on June 25, 2021, 08:28:05 PM
Yes, we picked that up 2 or 3 weeks ago in WW.

As a nit-picking query, how will it work with naming the variants? Will they go round the alphabet like they do with hurricanes? Is it optimistic for them to be using the Greek alphabet?

ETA - enjoy your week off Mobias. Please use it to take more photos of your cats.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 25, 2021, 09:27:25 PM
We dont name them. Is it a WHO thing?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: hamfist on June 26, 2021, 08:57:51 AM
it’s gonna start sounding like a US frat house. The kappa kappa phi variant.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 26, 2021, 04:20:36 PM
18,270 reported cases today.

The 7-day rolling rate of deaths per 100,00 people has gone up from 0.1 to 0.2

Many people still don't seem to care. I appreciate some people cannot wear masks but when you see the number of people wearing them off one ear or around their chin, it's clear some just don't want to.

I hear more people coughing on public transport than I used to. I'm double masking (a double layered cloth mask over a disposable mask) and am considering triple masking.

I just despair at a large section of English society, and how our press and political classes encourage their selfishness. It angers me how COVIDIOTS get away with it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 26, 2021, 04:38:44 PM
Covid-related hospitalisations definitely not yet joining the exponential rise in infections but with the vaccine programme not completing until into September (which will still need reinforcement through winter boosters then probably twice yearly boosters unless some longer lasting protection comes along) there is a fair old gap where we are not adequately covered against the Delta variant, so our government appear to be flirting with a faith-based position in planning to reopen everything in late July.

What's more, that final step will be accompanied by media confections like 'Freedom Day' and celebrations/mass gatherings at what may then be a critical point.

If by then hospitalisations are into the 3K+ per day format with A&E already at breaking point and these cunts emerge to indulgently rinse their new 'freedoms' for all they're worth to the expense of the NHS, I will slam those pot-and-pan banging, NHS clapping sheep and hypocrites into the fucking stone age - they will be picking their smashed hip bone up from the octagon of combat with a phantom limb.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on June 26, 2021, 04:40:34 PM
Personally can't wait for the 19th July date to be pushed back, idiots are gonna go crackers
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 26, 2021, 04:54:02 PM
That would be great, genuinely. 😂😂😂
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: shiftwork2 on June 26, 2021, 04:54:16 PM
Young people have short refractory times between erections and prolly don't have to get up in the night for a piss.  That's why I was annoyed to see loads of them queuing up today for a long-covid-avoiding jab.  It really comes to something when the health of these people trumps my lot getting their third go.  Blatant ageism.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 26, 2021, 05:15:29 PM
🏄🏼‍♂️
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on June 27, 2021, 05:32:33 PM
Personally can't wait for the 19th July date to be pushed back, idiots are gonna go crackers

Absolutely not going to happen. The Saj is a hawk on this, the kneecapping of Hancock was all about ensuring July 19th happens as advertised.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 27, 2021, 05:41:06 PM
Absolutely not going to happen. The Saj is a hawk on this, the kneecapping of Hancock was all about ensuring July 19th happens as advertised.

It's really bleak that ministers are determined to get rid of mask legislation on the 19th July, while at the same time trying to get as many people back in the office as possible even if they can do their job just as well from home. Mandating that people who can wear masks should seems common sense for the rest of 2021 at least. It doesn't hurt the economy and saves lives. If anything we should be tightening up on mask wearing with rising cases.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: buttgammon on June 27, 2021, 05:50:33 PM
TAKE THAT MUZZLE OFF YOUR FACE THIS ISNT FUCKING 1984 is going to be enshrined in law eventually.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on June 28, 2021, 08:31:15 AM
It's really bleak that ministers are determined to get rid of mask legislation on the 19th July, while at the same time trying to get as many people back in the office as possible even if they can do their job just as well from home. Mandating that people who can wear masks should seems common sense for the rest of 2021 at least. It doesn't hurt the economy and saves lives. If anything we should be tightening up on mask wearing with rising cases.

One of the reasons I'm now a militant cyclist even on the shittiest days is that I can't deal with the mask aggro anymore. Just absolute cunts. And it's going to get worse after July 19th even though wearing them is still a good idea, but it'll be the people not wearing them who'll be kicking off at people who are.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: katzenjammer on June 28, 2021, 11:57:06 AM
it'll be the people not wearing them who'll be kicking off at people who are.
They’ll be doing it for your freedom
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 28, 2021, 12:41:48 PM
124 deaths in the last 7 days versus 72 the previous 7. 72% rise which is climbing too.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on June 28, 2021, 12:45:50 PM
Open the (already open) pubs!!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 28, 2021, 01:44:42 PM
.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 28, 2021, 03:26:04 PM
https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1409453877431353348?s=19

Another scientist broken by the horror that is the UK news media.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 28, 2021, 05:52:38 PM
Interesting thread here. https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1409538187840704513  All in all if things keep going the way they are then we should have a shit ton of new daily infections just in time for opening up on the 19th of July. Delta can't wait I'm sure.

Things don't look good here in Scotland. Big outbreak at my work. Only me and one other out of seven of us so far are negative. One of my work colleagues, who's in his mid twenties and unvaccinated, is feeling quite seriously ill by the sounds of things. I was working in close proximity to him only on Friday.  I went for a PCR test earlier today so awaiting my result. My LFT's have all been negative so far but hearing Andrew Marr's story has me quite worried. I've heard similar stories from others too.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bakabaka on June 28, 2021, 06:00:24 PM
https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1409453877431353348?s=19

Another scientist broken by the horror that is the UK news media.

There's mention in that thread of Serco losing 600m tests. First I'd heard of it. Anyone know more about it?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on June 28, 2021, 06:04:47 PM
That cunt Javid is bleating on about MUH FREEDOMZ. Give me strength.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 28, 2021, 06:05:13 PM
Quote
"For me, 19 July is not only the end of the line but an exciting new journey for our country.

Fucking hell, that dickhead Javid not mincing his words.

By 19th July UK is on course for approx 500 deaths a week and in excess of 5,000 new hospitalisations a day. On what basis will that be a sensible position to remove even more restrictions? For a start, very few countries in Europe will agree to accept our infectious lot because their vaccine programme is further behind, so the vaunted 'summer holidays' will not happen.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Psybro on June 28, 2021, 06:13:27 PM
There's mention in that thread of Serco losing 600m tests. First I'd heard of it. Anyone know more about it?

When you order a pack of 7 lateral flow tests online or pick them up from a pharmacy or whatever, the instructions say to report the result online whether positive, negative or void. Every test has a unique bar code.

People aren't bothering, because if it's negative or void they probably don't see the point, or if it's positive they might quietly dispose of it, go back to work and cancel Sunday dinner with nan.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bomb_dog on June 28, 2021, 06:17:56 PM
We took lateral flow tests last week before visiting family, and because by daughter came home from preschool with a cough - they wouldn’t let her back without ‘evidence’ of a negative test.

The home-carried out negative test result was entered into the online gov site, then I was sent a text message of the result I’d just entered, which was enough to let her back into preschool the following Monday.



Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 28, 2021, 06:18:57 PM
Quote
Burgon says: "Given that the secretary of state has done very well out of the last year bagging hundreds of thousands of pounds during a national crisis, wouldn't it be the height of hypocrisy for the new health secretary to refuse our NHS staff the pay rise they so clearly deserve?"

Savid Javid replies with one line: "The honourable gentleman is going to have to try a lot harder than that."

Hoyle should have called Javid out for not answering the question.

Quote
Conservative Mark Harper asks Javid to rule out introducing restrictions in winter and autumn "as a mechanism for managing Covid".

Death cult.

On the other hand, John Redwood is a stopped clock.

Quote
Conservative MP John Redwood urges the health secretary to look at improving air extraction and cleaning systems to see what more can be done to stop disease transmission.

That's actually a good idea. First one Redwood's ever had?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 28, 2021, 06:50:26 PM
It’s all just shit isn’t it? I’ve had enough of it really. Supposed to be double vaxed in the next week or two but it feels a bit futile.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 28, 2021, 07:56:29 PM
22,868 cases today. We have hit 20k+ sooner than I expected.

1505 hospitalisations, up by 187 vs same time last week.



Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 28, 2021, 09:06:24 PM
Is there a way of measuring how long these waves/spikes last? It seems to be a finite amount of time, Like 3 or 4 weeks? There’s an interesting project in that somewhere. Would also give the rest of us something to count down to whenever a FUCKDOWN begins.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on June 28, 2021, 09:16:50 PM
Just looking at the graphs they tend to last about 6 weeks, but that's just from a very quick eyeball - and doesn't take into account preventative measures, which it seems like they're totalling ruling out this time so that's nice.

And anyway it can't be stressed enough that it's really only young people getting it now, so these cases don't count.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 28, 2021, 11:10:46 PM
A lot of them young people vote labour green so I suppose it’s not a huge issue if they get massive covid right up the arse.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: buttgammon on June 28, 2021, 11:39:09 PM
Of all the times for a libertarian cultist maniac to take over the Department of Health...
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 29, 2021, 07:01:02 AM
Of all the times for a libertarian cultist maniac to take over the Department of Health...

I’ll keep him in check.

Ps. Cuellar, its not just young people…
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on June 29, 2021, 07:40:29 AM
Mail and Express are very pleased with him. That bodes well.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 29, 2021, 07:50:57 AM
I’M RESIGNING IN PROTEST
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on June 29, 2021, 09:37:09 AM
FFor a start, very few countries in Europe will agree to accept our infectious lot because their vaccine programme is further behind, so the vaunted 'summer holidays' will not happen.
I think making it difficult for Brits to go abroad is part of our covid recovery plan, isn't it? All that money will be spent in the country on "staycations" or new houses etc instead.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 29, 2021, 09:48:08 AM

And anyway it can't be stressed enough that it's really only young people getting it now, so these cases don't count.

I can assure you thats absolutely not true. Young people are a larger percentage of cases and are certainly driving transmission but that is very quickly feeding up the chain into older people getting it. The key thing is older people aren't getting as seriously sick as before. Thats the big change now.

What happened last week in my work place is pretty common right now I think. Double vaccinated mother of two in her late 40's catches covid from kids, who caught it at school, then comes into work thinking she's only got a mild cold. She then passes it on to almost everyone else who are in various age groups and in various stages of vaccination, some single dose some none at all. Now various people are either mildly ill or very ill.

Its crazy that there are still SAGE scientists who believe schools don't drive transmission. I would have thought it a no brainer that the first thing you do in a pandemic is close schools. 
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 29, 2021, 10:49:03 AM
I think making it difficult for Brits to go abroad is part of our covid recovery plan, isn't it? All that money will be spent in the country on "staycations" or new houses etc instead.

I don't think it's in the Covid recovery plan to financially cripple UK airports, flight companies, Eurostar and ferry companies.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 29, 2021, 10:50:16 AM
Quote
comes into work thinking she's only got a mild cold

What fucking arsehole would do that?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 29, 2021, 10:52:05 AM
Quote
Its crazy that there are still SAGE scientists who believe schools don't drive transmission

Latest data shows school transmission is currently among the biggest drivers. End of term cannot come soon enough.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on June 29, 2021, 12:44:51 PM
I’M RESIGNING IN PROTEST

Keep it in the relevant thread please.

https://www.cookdandbombd.co.uk/forums/index.php/topic,87885.0.html
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 29, 2021, 02:07:26 PM
What fucking arsehole would do that?

Well indeed. I was just reading that another problem with the delta variant is that the blocked nose symptom is being mistaken for hay fever by some people who aren't otherwise feeling unwell.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cold Meat Platter on June 29, 2021, 02:25:35 PM
My nose doesn't get blocked with hayfever. Quite the opposite. Pretty easy to tell apart for me. I wonder if this is a post-hoc excuse for being caught not isolating/giving a fuck.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on June 29, 2021, 02:28:29 PM
So are the home tests only any good if you are symptomatic? Youngest is at home after case in her school. I've done lotavof tests but I'm double jabbed. If she sniffs do we have to take her for a PCR test?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 29, 2021, 03:10:54 PM
So are the home tests only any good if you are symptomatic? Youngest is at home after case in her school. I've done lotavof tests but I'm double jabbed. If she sniffs do we have to take her for a PCR test?

A PCR test is a good idea because its much more accurate. I went for one yesterday and got a negative result back this morning. There does seem to be a bit of growing feeling that the government wasted a lot of money investing so much in LFT's. They're not as accurate and people have to be sure they're doing it right.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Claude the Racecar Driving Rockstar Super Sleuth on June 29, 2021, 03:59:51 PM
The LFTs would probably be more accurate if they didn't put the swab on the end of a long, springy stick, which makes it nearly impossible not to touch the rest of your gob with it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on June 29, 2021, 05:04:11 PM
I don't think it's in the Covid recovery plan to financially cripple […] Eurostar .
I suspect in that specific case, the Westminster administration is entirely happy to fuck it over.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 29, 2021, 05:45:56 PM
The LFTs would probably be more accurate if they didn't put the swab on the end of a long, springy stick, which makes it nearly impossible not to touch the rest of your gob with it.

Can contamination with other biologics impact LFT?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Claude the Racecar Driving Rockstar Super Sleuth on June 29, 2021, 06:24:24 PM
It says in the instructions not to touch any part of your mouth, other than the tonsils. It's like playing one of those wire maze buzzer games.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Huxleys Babkins on June 29, 2021, 09:35:48 PM
What fucking arsehole would do that?

Good luck isolating with a runny nose and not getting a bollocking off your employer and potentially losing earnings if your test comes back negative. Government/NHS guidance still only has the cough, loss of smell/taste and fever as “valid” signs of COVID and that’s what most firms are following to the letter.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on June 29, 2021, 10:18:46 PM
Can contamination with other biologics impact LFT?

When I went for my PCR test yesterday I got chatting to the guy there and apparently one of the reasons the LFT's aren't as accurate and are frequently giving the wrong result is almost anything
can contaminate it. Laying the swab down onto a surface after you've opened it can void the result.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on June 29, 2021, 10:23:15 PM
I've done loads of them though, and I'm really not convinced I've done them all properly, but they've always been negative. Really not sure the children's were done properly, son wouldn't have up his nose for more than a couple of seconds. Never had a no result.
Presumably if you took it out of the packet and put it straight into the solution it'd be negative.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 29, 2021, 10:54:28 PM
First +200 day for hospitalisations.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 30, 2021, 06:54:17 AM
I remember reading that the new variant is more transmissible by kids and the older variants weren't as easily spread by them. Has that been confirmed? I would have assumed they'd all had it asymptomatically by now but seems the new wave cases are all kid age.

While I don't really care about 20yo, I do feel bad for kids because they don't have a choice.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 30, 2021, 07:02:10 AM
Yes. The Delta Plus is the worrying one now
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on June 30, 2021, 08:50:02 AM
Good luck isolating with a runny nose and not getting a bollocking off your employer and potentially losing earnings if your test comes back negative. Government/NHS guidance still only has the cough, loss of smell/taste and fever as “valid” signs of COVID and that’s what most firms are following to the letter.

Because it's better to go into work with Covid and spread it all around while doing your duty making money for The Man, than to be a malingering shirker lazing around at home while being over-cautious about something that might just be a cold.[1]
 1. (Sarcasm)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 30, 2021, 08:51:47 AM
Yes. The Delta Plus is the worrying one now

Fortified with vitamins and iron
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Huxleys Babkins on June 30, 2021, 09:29:51 AM
Because it's better to go into work with Covid and spread it all around while doing your duty making money for The Man, than to be a malingering shirker lazing around at home while being over-cautious about something that might just be a cold.[1]
 1. (Sarcasm)

Yes, this is government policy now.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: chveik on June 30, 2021, 03:01:19 PM
While I don't really care about 20yo, I do feel bad for kids because they don't have a choice.

i've been very careful during the pandemic and i'm finally going to have my first jab on friday, i don't think i deserve contempt
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on June 30, 2021, 04:27:09 PM
26,068 reported cases today
14 deaths within 28 days of a positive death today (which the BBC claim is "low")
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 30, 2021, 04:33:27 PM
Covid has just got all too real for me. Another one of my local ale houses is shut for 2 weeks due to a suspected infection.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 30, 2021, 07:03:55 PM
Covid has just got all too real for me. Another one of my local ale houses is shut for 2 weeks due to a suspected infection.


ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

The Snipemeister has struck again
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on June 30, 2021, 07:08:26 PM
i've been very careful during the pandemic and i'm finally going to have my first jab on friday, i don't think i deserve contempt

Sorry, mate. You certainly don't, but all the others do.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on June 30, 2021, 09:01:04 PM

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

The Snipemeister has struck again

Went somewhere else 2 minutes away
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on June 30, 2021, 09:12:15 PM
Went somewhere else 2 minutes away


boom! the cow and calf?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 01, 2021, 10:07:34 AM

boom! the cow and calf?

The Pig & Whistle
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: GMTV on July 01, 2021, 11:29:31 AM
ONS reporting 400k with long covid, and nearly 200k of those have found their life seriously limited. Yet absolutely no reason whatsoever to think about trying to limit the spread now, FUCKDOWN it is
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on July 01, 2021, 11:52:16 AM
ONS reporting 400k with long covid, and nearly 200k of those have found their life seriously limited. Yet absolutely no reason whatsoever to think about trying to limit the spread now, FUCKDOWN it is

While some people will certainly have long term effects from covid, it's really very hard to say whether long covid is a significant problem or not. The ONS figures are self reported and don't even require a positive covid test. It's very easy for people to attribute any symptoms they have, especially vague ones like fatigue or inability to concentrate, to the disease that's in the news all the time.

The fact that the number of people reporting long covid has gone down is I think an indication of how significant those numbers are.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 01, 2021, 01:25:16 PM
Long Covid is going to be denied. Sufferers will be branded as malingerers and unable to get sickness or disability benefits. Already many people including some doctors are saying they don't believe it exists and it's all in the mind (the post above this one essentially implies as much). I'll eat my hat if it's ever officially acknowledged as a problem, or any significant effort put into investigating whether it might be.

<edit> new page cunt - for "the post above this one" read "the post at the end of the previous page".
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: stonkers on July 01, 2021, 02:34:53 PM
All MojoJojo is saying is that self-reporting of symptoms alone is hugely unreliable. It's not really controversial that people are going to get post-viral symptoms. Yeah there will be deniers, but on the other side as the vaccines break the link between cases and deaths we are already seeing zero covid zoomers pivoting to long covid as a justification for eternal lockdowns and border closures. 
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Petey Pate on July 01, 2021, 05:03:24 PM
My housemate tested positive with a lateral flow test yesterday, redid it, and got the same result. He's been fully vaccinated with Pfizer whereas I've had one jab and have tested negative.  Either way, neither of us is ill but we're still isolating for the next nine days.

Supposedly the false positive rate of lateral flow tests is below 1% so I can't imagine the PCR test he's submitted will come back negative.  I'm curious as to whether I have it or will catch it off him.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on July 01, 2021, 06:16:01 PM
I've only had one vaccine dose but didn't catch it last week when covid broke out at my work. I've spent the entire week this week convinced at any moment I'm going start being really unwell. Its not been much fun. It seems very random. The lady at work who brought it in had been double dose vaccinated and was quite ill. Other people at work who caught it from her with very mild symptoms were a mixture of single dose and not vaccinated at all.

The news doesn't seem too great today. https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1410622822599254017
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 01, 2021, 06:26:02 PM
Best chance is if you previously had COVID and have had mRNA vaccine. Best immunity I mean.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bomb_dog on July 01, 2021, 06:32:43 PM
As the numbers go up again I’m invariably F5ing news feeds, these threads and twitter to fuck, and I’m finding there’s a distinct lack of ‘experts’ and guys like the lads at SAGE weighing in with the usual ‘speaking independently’ reckons.

I’ve come to the conclusion this week that now, more than over over the last few months, no-one’s got a clue what going to happen over the next few weeks and months, and theres a lot of hedge betting at the moment and traps keeping shut.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 01, 2021, 06:34:13 PM
As the numbers go up again I’m invariably F5ing news feeds, these threads and twitter to fuck, and I’m finding there’s a distinct lack of ‘experts’ and guys like the lads at SAGE weighing in with the usual ‘speaking independently’ reckons.

I’ve come to the conclusion this week that now, more than over over the last few months, no-one’s got a clue what going to happen over the next few weeks and months, and theres a lot of hedge betting at the moment and traps keeping shut.

We have some clues, but the bottom line is to proceed with extreme caution. I sit with a panel of the best in the country at this sort of thing and you are right that sometimes its 'let's wait and see as we can't really tell now'.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 01, 2021, 06:34:41 PM
Best chance is if you previously had COVID and have had mRNA vaccine. Best immunity I mean.

Yeah, that's a great comfort to those of us who've never had it and were jabbed with the crappy AZ. I've noticed recently all the news articles that mention vaccine efficacy seem to be using what I assume are average efficacy rates for all the vaccines (presumably supplied by the government), and failing to mention that a shitload of people have been given one that is significantly less effective than that.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 01, 2021, 06:37:28 PM
It's not so bad - still pretty high. Not sure against Delta - AY.1

An interesting comment today - "thank god for the vaccines" - implying WIPEOUT if we'd not had vaccinations and this new Delta was doing the carnage its threatening now.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 01, 2021, 06:45:46 PM
My comfort is that the figures given for AZ efficacy are for two weeks after the second jab, and I gather it keeps rising after that, although it doesn't seem to be known for how long it keeps rising or how high it ends up.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on July 01, 2021, 06:46:39 PM
We have some clues, but the bottom line is to proceed with extreme caution.

I think the worry is thats exactly what we appear not to be doing. I just heard there on the Scottish news that the fringe festival here in Edinburgh is going ahead in just over a month. This new delta variant is rubbing its hands in glee I'm sure.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 01, 2021, 06:56:50 PM
Anyone going to Latitude...word to the wise...don't
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 01, 2021, 07:00:45 PM
Quote
the fringe festival here in Edinburgh is going ahead in just over a month

Oh fuck no.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 01, 2021, 08:01:33 PM
Music festivals going ahead is fucking insane. The football going ahead is bad enough.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on July 02, 2021, 12:31:29 AM
https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1410622822599254017

Shoulders posted that earlier. It's not good, obviously, but it should be put in the context of a week where daily admissions barely raised.

My best guess is that you really have to dig into the regions and their demographics to make sense of the numbers.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Bernice on July 02, 2021, 10:58:30 AM
Anecdotally, this thing is running rampant through people I know right now, late 20s, early 30s types. I'm hunkering down and cycling everywhere while I desperately try to get a second jab in me early.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on July 02, 2021, 12:59:20 PM
I suppose this graph sums up why we're opening up and why the government say we're on track for July the 19th. Just as long as the bottom two trajectories stay that way....

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E5QuVgZXoAIZklP?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 02, 2021, 01:46:47 PM
Yeah I think that’s what covid will start to look like. The case counts will continue to go up and down but vaccines will do their job so case numbers will be less and less the focus of the story.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on July 02, 2021, 04:07:08 PM
Keep thinking about Andrew Marr's story. A guy in his 60s, a stroke and cancer behind him, double jabbed, gets covid and feels pretty rank for a week. I'm 30 years younger than him, no underlying conditions, not jabbed at the time, I got covid in January (presumably the much missed Alpha variant, rip) and felt pretty rank for a week. If that's the vaccines at work, then it's remarkable.

So maybe this is the exit wave? Maybe this is all fine? If a new illness appeared and it was making blokes in their 60s feel bad for a week and was killing a tiny % of people who get it would we have any restrictions at all? But then you look at the numbers and think...uh maybe not.

I’ve come to the conclusion this week that now, more than over over the last few months, no-one’s got a clue what going to happen over the next few weeks and months, and theres a lot of hedge betting at the moment and traps keeping shut.

Yeah I follow some really well informed people on Twitter who've been very good at calling what's going on have literally no idea atm.

Anyone going to Latitude...word to the wise...don't

Has anyone ever been to a festival and not come back with something. Absolute petri dishes when we're not in a pandemic.

EDIT: just remembered I read the thread over on efestivals about Download and all the posts after the weekend were "that was amazing, best festival ever" and then loads of the posts in the week after were "just been pinged by the app" or "just got called by Test and Trace" or "just got a positive LFT". Uh oh.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 02, 2021, 04:16:50 PM
Norovirus mutations on the horizon. Herd weakness against these suppressed common viruses. FUCKDOWN WINTER
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on July 02, 2021, 04:32:10 PM


So maybe this is the exit wave? Maybe this is all fine?

Norovirus mutations on the horizon. Herd weakness against these suppressed common viruses. FUCKDOWN WINTER

I watched a bit of the independent SAGE briefing today and one point made is that things may be ok-ish over the summer but the dangerous thing is we'll head into autumn with a large reservoir of the virus still out there in the population. People will be spending more time indoors again in early autumn as temperatures drop, the schools will go back and we may see a far bigger issue this time from older common viruses mixed with covid 19.

All of that is up against possible virus mutation, which may or may not happen, and vulnerable people who have been double jabbed having their vaccine effectiveness possibly wearing off a bit. So many unknowns....
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 02, 2021, 04:33:32 PM
To be clear, the bigger threat may be other diseases
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on July 02, 2021, 04:49:39 PM
Norovirus mutations on the horizon. Herd weakness against these suppressed common viruses. FUCKDOWN WINTER

Realtalk: noro is the virus that shits me up, due to my crippling emetophobia. If I get an indication it's doing the rounds it's FULL ON SELF IMPOSED FUCKDOWN for me.

To be clear, the bigger threat may be other diseases

Yeah assuming this is an exit wave and we don't have serious problems with covid in the winter there's potential for a v bad flu season isn't there due to an almost total lack of recent immunity. Could be grim.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: stonkers on July 02, 2021, 05:20:33 PM
Keep thinking about Andrew Marr's story. A guy in his 60s, a stroke and cancer behind him, double jabbed, gets covid and feels pretty rank for a week. I'm 30 years younger than him, no underlying conditions, not jabbed at the time, I got covid in January (presumably the much missed Alpha variant, rip) and felt pretty rank for a week. If that's the vaccines at work, then it's remarkable.

So maybe this is the exit wave? Maybe this is all fine? If a new illness appeared and it was making blokes in their 60s feel bad for a week and was killing a tiny % of people who get it would we have any restrictions at all? But then you look at the numbers and think...uh maybe not.


Yeah I follow some really well informed people on Twitter who've been very good at calling what's going on have literally no idea atm..

Yeah I am basically in the same boat of "no idea about this but follow people who appear to[1] on Twitter" and I've always understood it from fairly early on that you can't predict the pandemic but most people agree the endgame of this is that it ends up as an endemic seasonal virus with a large level of immunity via a combiantion of vaccines and infection. Marr's case is an example of the vaccines working exactly as they are meant to. 
 1. Ie. not the likes of Deepti Gurdasani or Christina Pagel
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on July 02, 2021, 05:26:33 PM
Nu-Ebola when

😅😅😅
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 02, 2021, 05:59:33 PM
Nu-Ebola when

😅😅😅

Imagine if 60% of the world just died horribly of Ebola lol.

You just know 90% survivors left would be Tory cunts.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 02, 2021, 06:14:27 PM
Nu-Ebola when

😅😅😅

Male on Male violence most likely to likely to kill you ATM, Chonks.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Bernice on July 02, 2021, 07:01:24 PM
He's just joking, it's suicide.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on July 02, 2021, 08:47:58 PM
Just been chatting to my ex who is an HDU nurse here in Edinburgh but also temps in hospitals in Fife and Glasgow. She says it doesn't look good, certainly here in the central belt of Scotland, which is currently pretty much the delta epicentre of Europe. There's been a lot of admissions of vulnerable seriously ill people in the last week, all of whom have been double vaccinated. She said it reminds her of when things started to get bad leading up to last Xmas.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 02, 2021, 09:43:36 PM
Imported from Wembley apparently
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Dusty Substance on July 03, 2021, 02:13:20 PM
Just been chatting to my ex who is an HDU nurse here in Edinburgh but also temps in hospitals in Fife and Glasgow. She says it doesn't look good, certainly here in the central belt of Scotland, which is currently pretty much the delta epicentre of Europe. There's been a lot of admissions of vulnerable seriously ill people in the last week, all of whom have been double vaccinated. She said it reminds her of when things started to get bad leading up to last Xmas.

FUUUUUUCCCKKKKKK.

It's never ever going to end in this fucking country, is it?

Weighing up my options and it's either suicide or emigration.
 
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 03, 2021, 04:36:58 PM
The vaccine isn't going to stop every case. But for every seriously ill person double vaccinated, there are 19 others who would have been too if they hadn't been double vaccinated.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Petey Pate on July 03, 2021, 05:48:10 PM
My housemate (age 28) has been double vaccinated and is still infected but so far has only lost his sense of smell (I've yet to test positive - waiting on a PCR result - but I've just felt a little tired by comparison).  This isn't to knock the vaccines but more people should be aware that they don't grant you full immunity, and that you definitely should continue wearing masks after 19 July. 
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on July 03, 2021, 08:38:26 PM
I think the thing people need to remember is that our NHS system operates on the edge of its capabilities at the best of times. It takes very little to bring it to its knees. Thats always been the problem. If this bloody government hadn't wasted those billions on a crap test and trace system and developing those home lateral flow tests, which are basically pointless, then it could have put that money towards rushing through the construction of a few more hospitals here and there.

But hey the last thing this government wants is to invest in the NHS. A few more hospitals would only have to be staffed by all those pesky foreigners we've sent packing. 
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on July 03, 2021, 08:47:19 PM
A few more hospitals would only have to be staffed by all those pesky foreigners we've sent packing. 
Indeed - capital expenditure isn't, really, a huge problem in the NHSs compared to the staffing crises and recurrent funding tied up with those staffing crises.

(Arguably, we wouldn't have some the capital expenditure needs that we do if we didn't have the staffing crises, since it's these that have - in part - driven centralisation of acute services and building massive new hospitals in the middle of nowhere to enable this.)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 04, 2021, 09:57:53 AM
Apparently mask wearing is no longer going to be mandatory from 19th July, and people will be expected to use their common sense, because look how well that worked out.
Because it's better to go into work with Covid and spread it all around while doing your duty making money for The Man, than to be a malingering shirker lazing around at home while being over-cautious about something that might just be a cold.[1]
 1. (Sarcasm)
I lost two days' pay when I had tonsillitis one year because I'd used up all my sick leave. Sometimes you are caught between a rock and a hard place, and it's not just about 'the man', it's about being able to pay the bills and eat.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on July 04, 2021, 11:39:43 AM
In the European championships of covid delta infection Scotland really is roaring ahead of everyone. If a new variant evolves out of Dundee that goes on to wipe out mankind I won't be the least bit surprised.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E5XH4DbXIAEA-jW?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on July 04, 2021, 01:07:44 PM
Get the impression that while Matt Hancock may have been dim he had at least eventually grasped the properties of the virus. Going by today's piece in the Mail and a return to comparisons with the flu, Sajid Javid has yet to do that or doesn't care.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on July 04, 2021, 01:27:18 PM
Going by today's piece in the Mail and a return to comparisons with the flu, Sajid Javid has yet to do that or doesn't care.

I get the impression that Javid is the personification of a growing line of thinking by even some relatively moderate people what we have to open up now come what may. More people may die but we just have to accept that as a price we have to now pay. We have to accept a level of suffering and death and get on with things. Its all gone on too long.

I've never been more acutely aware of the division between some scientists, probably a majority of scientists, who advise extreme caution right now and politicians and commentators who are saying enough is enough. We're all going to die eventually so deal with it. Its very depressing.

There's been a lot of pile ons on Twitter I've noticed over this weekend with pretty much that sentiment.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on July 04, 2021, 01:39:01 PM
Christopher said he didn't like it - but he had to go along with it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 04, 2021, 01:45:53 PM
Christopher said he didn't like it - but he had to go along with it.

Coming around to your thinking now. Fuck.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Petey Pate on July 04, 2021, 02:33:39 PM
I've never been more acutely aware of the division between some scientists, probably a majority of scientists, who advise extreme caution right now and politicians and commentators who are saying enough is enough. We're all going to die eventually so deal with it. Its very depressing.

This isn't really anything new, just look at how climate change has been treated for the past thirty-plus years.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 04, 2021, 05:05:59 PM
Coming around to your thinking now. Fuck.

Can’t put the genie back in the bottle now. If people can travel internationally and go to football matches for a good old infection, then it’ll be pretty difficult to impose any restrictions. With deaths and hospitalizations staying low, I don’t see any other way forward except easing restrictions and hoping for the best. What else can be done?

The case numbers will jump but it’s an infectious virus and there’s only so much you can do about that. Unless severe cases have a proportional increase then that’s how this ends - fully vaccinate everyone you can, continue tracking variants and caseloads, and work on annual booster shots but after that, what? We’ve found a way to keep people (mostly) safe (albeit without eradicating the virus) and that was the goal all along - buy time until the vaccines come. The alternative is welding every single person’s front door shut in every country on the planet with complete compliance for a month and that’s just not going to happen.

Ferris preddo - by September, the new normal is here. I said it before; unless deaths go through the roof there just isn’t the political will to continue with lockdowns any more.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 04, 2021, 05:15:19 PM
Javid is terrifying.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: checkoutgirl on July 04, 2021, 05:23:36 PM
Apparently mask wearing is no longer going to be mandatory from 19th July, and people will be expected to use their common sense

Oh..

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/621e5e298fd9f4a889be2a75d2ecf4512b93a324/0_304_5184_3110/master/5184.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=a701bd92433e1bffb865f2d38d966e81)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 04, 2021, 05:24:42 PM
Can’t put the genie back in the bottle now. If people can travel internationally and go to football matches for a good old infection, then it’ll be pretty difficult to impose any restrictions. With deaths and hospitalizations staying low, I don’t see any other way forward except easing restrictions and hoping for the best. What else can be done?

The case numbers will jump but it’s an infectious virus and there’s only so much you can do about that. Unless severe cases have a proportional increase then that’s how this ends - fully vaccinate everyone you can, continue tracking variants and caseloads, and work on annual booster shots but after that, what? We’ve found a way to keep people (mostly) safe (albeit without eradicating the virus) and that was the goal all along - buy time until the vaccines come. The alternative is welding every single person’s front door shut in every country on the planet with complete compliance for a month and that’s just not going to happen.

The middle way would be to encourage people to social distance when out and about and to keep mandating masks on buses and in shops and bring back masks in schools. Require masks in workplaces as well. Even if hopsitaisations dont overwhelm the NHS, we need to keep case numbers lower to avoid a mutation and lower the number of cases of Long Covid. We should also be requiring bus windows to be locked open unless if it is heavy rain to increase ventillation.

Making it easier to tell between people who cannot wear masks and people who cant be bothered would also help. Hire extra NHS admin staff and have exemption card issued for people who cant wear them and properly enforce mask wearing on buses, trains and in shops.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 04, 2021, 05:26:45 PM
On Mum s net people are talking about burning their masks. Most of them are looking forward to July 18th while complaing about people not wanting to return to the office (almost as if the lack of a mask mandate on public transport might put some off).
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 04, 2021, 05:29:43 PM
The next few decades are going to be absolutely fucking unbearable.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 04, 2021, 05:33:59 PM
The middle way would be to encourage people to social distance when out and about and to keep mandating masks on buses and in shops and bring back masks in schools. Require masks in workplaces as well. Even if hopsitaisations dont overwhelm the NHS, we need to keep case numbers lower to avoid a mutation and lower the number of cases of Long Covid. We should also be requiring bus windows to be locked open unless if it is heavy rain to increase ventillation.

Making it easier to tell between people who cannot wear masks and people who cant be bothered would also help. Hire extra NHS admin staff and have exemption card issued for people who cant wear them and properly enforce mask wearing on buses, trains and in shops.

Sorry - yes absolutely, I meant to say this kind of basic and simple stuff should continue regardless (that’s what I meant by “easing restrictions” rather than removing them entirely but you’re right, I wasn’t clear). Mask wearing and social distancing should continue wherever it makes sense for the reasons you gave.

Is Javid proposing removing all of that? For what purpose? Politics I suppose, but that seems unnecessarily bonkers.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 04, 2021, 05:36:12 PM
The next few decades are going to be absolutely fucking unbearable.

Well the last few have been a right laugh so it only seems fair.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Catalogue Trousers on July 04, 2021, 05:43:15 PM
Quote
Is Javid proposing removing all of that? For what purpose?

As I've said elsewhere, it's all being done with the most weasel of words, just like almost all of the Covid advice has been. 'These are just guidelines, nobody's forcing you to do anything' (well maybe in a situation like this you fucking should be chum). And the implicit subtext 'so, if you breach them and you get the 'vid, don't come crying to us'.

Just the same with this. 'Nobody's got to wear masks any more after July 19th! Er, unless any of you want to wear them in certain places still. But hey! It's your choice, you lucky little citizen, you!'
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 04, 2021, 05:48:07 PM
The whole "personal responsibilty" bullshit they come out with ignores that mask wearing protects others as well as the wearer, and Javid is giving people the go ahead to put others at risk. Wonder how many deaths and cases of Long Covid Javid will be responsible for. I'm sure he will think it was worth it though as he is a minister again. When things get bad again he will be the next fall guy.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 04, 2021, 05:53:11 PM
Welcome to Pandemic Handling by Ayn Rand.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 04, 2021, 06:00:50 PM
The whole "personal responsibilty" bullshit they come out with ignores that mask wearing protects others as well as the wearer, and Javid is giving people the go ahead to put others at risk. Wonder how many deaths and cases of Long Covid Javid will be responsible for. I'm sure he will think it was worth it though as he is a minister again. When things get bad again he will be the next fall guy.

Yeah the masks and social distancing are largely to protect other people from me, not the other way round and it costs fuck all. Who is so worked up about wearing a mask? Honestly. As vaccination rates increase, cases may “cost” less in that they’re far more likely to be mild but they are still a net negative and should be avoided where possible.

Arguing against masks is like maintaining the right to turn my headlights off while driving - I can still see everyone because you’ve all helpfully put your lights on, but I’m an absolute liability for everyone else.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 04, 2021, 06:01:38 PM
The Euros should really have been postponed for another year. Nearly 2000 cases from Scottish football fans travelling to London alone. It is a bread and circuses style distraction from the failure of governments, in particular the Westminster one, so of course it went ahead. Although maybe watching football gives people something to do  at home given how little decent stuff there is on TV, I might be biased as I am not a fan of football or competitive sport on a national level.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 04, 2021, 06:45:16 PM
Javid is terrifying.

Fucking tell me about it - looking forward what shit he's going to throw at the 'shit programme' next week. "Thanks for all your hard work, you can fuck off now. Fuck off to the Department for Trade or something as we can't fire you"
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 04, 2021, 06:46:38 PM
China 101st in number of cases, 65th in deaths. What a hell of a success story for the World's richest country.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 04, 2021, 07:03:48 PM
Fucking tell me about it - looking forward what shit he's going to throw at the 'shit programme' next week. "Thanks for all your hard work, you can fuck off now. Fuck off to the Department for Trade or something as we can't fire you"

You are our last hope BlodwynPig. The responsibility falls squarely on you. Yes this is unfair and unjust, but some have greatness thrust upon them and now is your moment. You need to disable Javid completely.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 04, 2021, 07:12:42 PM
On Mum s net people are talking about burning their masks. Most of them are looking forward to July 18th while complaing about people not wanting to return to the office (almost as if the lack of a mask mandate on public transport might put some off).
They should just chuck them in the bin. Better for the environment. But this IS Mumsnet so everything has to be a drama. And yes, there is a lot of ‘well, if football fans can travel, why can’t we go to little Jimmy’s sports day?’ For a site obsessed with resilience they aren’t half whiny.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 04, 2021, 07:14:07 PM
The comforts of perpetual victimhood.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 04, 2021, 07:18:03 PM
You are our last hope BlodwynPig. The responsibility falls squarely on you. Yes this is unfair and unjust, but some have greatness thrust upon them and now is your moment. You need to disable Javid completely.

The irony is, if I succeed, you will never know about it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on July 04, 2021, 07:23:23 PM
The alternative is welding every single person’s front door shut in every country on the planet

Ahhhhh, bliss.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 04, 2021, 10:08:52 PM
Well the last few have been a right laugh so it only seems fair.

Well in the west at least. An entire civilisation brought to its knees by infighting, wokerati and a relatively tame virus.


Can you imagine what the consequences of climate change are going to do to us? People almost killing each other over fucking bog roll.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 04, 2021, 10:28:38 PM
Hate all the adverts you get these days where the message is, either implicitly or explicitly, "Cor what a time that was! We really pulled together, didn't we? Back then, when it was bad? Phew! We came through it!"
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on July 04, 2021, 10:47:25 PM
Ex-banker Javid is extremely dangerous and worrying. A financial shark running UK health, with zero medical knowledge, is the worst of all worlds. The UK has a massive incidence of cases, but does nothing, indeed does the opposite by reversing distancing and mask measures.

Christ almighty, we are fucked. Or rather, we proles are fucked, as we are cattle-prodded back into our work places by the bosses (whom Javid, being ex-JP Morgan, clearly represents). I am appalled and disgusted :-(

Hancock eventually was doing the right thing and being cautious and careful. Javid by contrast is an aggressive hedge fund manager who will do a lot of damage. As the pandemic soars in the UK, we will become pariahs to the rest of the world, and rightly so, destroying our economy. What does the financial genius Javid make of that, given that all he cares about is money? Dangerous, incompetent twat.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Helvetica Scenario on July 04, 2021, 11:37:10 PM
Fucking tell me about it - looking forward what shit he's going to throw at the 'shit programme' next week. "Thanks for all your hard work, you can fuck off now. Fuck off to the Department for Trade or something as we can't fire you"

Your meetings are still via Teams/Zoom, presumably, blods.?

On an entirely unrelated note, I do hope your boss never accidentally leaks independently recorded evidence of his callous, uninterested take on protecting the country's health and his wanton dismissal of expert opinion.  The silly sausage could take the rest of the government down with him!

Edited: to remove unintentional reference to dumplings.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 05, 2021, 07:55:10 AM
Hate all the adverts you get these days where the message is, either implicitly or explicitly, "Cor what a time that was! We really pulled together, didn't we? Back then, when it was bad? Phew! We came through it!"

“Except Grandma Pat, oh and Uncle Joe and his diabetes. Ah and Cousin Molly has terrible lung problems and they’ve just discovered the bodies of your neighbours after 6 months. But, now you can enjoy the cool refreshing taste of Inch’s Cider while watching your favourite indie bands like Keane and Razorlight in the park with your mates in straw boaters and ankle socks. THIS IS LIFE, THIS IS NATWEST”
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 05, 2021, 07:56:19 AM
Your meetings are still via Teams/Zoom, presumably, blods.?

On an entirely unrelated note, I do hope your boss never accidentally leaks independently recorded evidence of his callous, uninterested take on protecting the country's health and his wanton dismissal of expert opinion.  The silly sausage could take the rest of the government down with him!

Edited: to remove unintentional reference to dumplings.

;)

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on July 05, 2021, 09:10:46 AM
Find the messaging about "personal responsibility" combined with "lads, I'm taking off my mask forever" chat from ministers extremely off tbh. Like, open the night clubs fine, that is a personal responsibility thing, fine. But immunocompromised people, or people who couldn't have the jab for other reasons have to get on the bus too. Maybe while cases are rising we could, perhaps, continue to ask the bare fucking minimum.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 05, 2021, 09:34:04 AM
Profit before life.

Psychopaths hailed as heroes. Can't stand it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: buttgammon on July 05, 2021, 10:33:39 AM
Is this even worse than the psychopathic way they handled the virus in the early days? They have over a year of hindsight, the advice from the scientists is there, and yet this studied ignorance is still there, all just to find another way to put profit above human life. It's some Randian wet dream.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on July 05, 2021, 11:14:14 AM
We've seen similar lunacy from the Brazilian and Indian leaders previously, and we know how that turned out. But no Western democracy is behaving gung ho in this manner. The US is probably closest, with removal of restrictions in NYC, California etc, but that's in the context of few new cases and flat numbers, not an exponential increase in cases.

The medical and scientific advice is clear regarding continuing to wear masks and socially distance. It's common sense. Which makes the current gung ho proposals from the government hedge fund managers extremely concerning. We are in a Twilight Zone episode entitled "The Variant Factory".
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 05, 2021, 11:31:19 AM
Psychopaths hailed as heroes. Can't stand it.

Wasnt there a very small period last year where people were trying to get a 'clap for Boris' thing going?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 05, 2021, 11:44:30 AM
They have over a year of hindsight, the advice from the scientists is there, and yet this studied ignorance is still there, all just to find another way to put profit above human life.

I think it would take way longer than a year to change their entire ideology. Covid has been a blip in their pursuit of cuntishness. Normal service was always going to resume as soon as possible.

The US is probably closest, with removal of restrictions in NYC, California etc, but that's in the context of few new cases and flat numbers, not an exponential increase in cases.

Without going too tin foil, the US aren't counting cases in vaccinated people any more so their numbers are going to be flatter than ours until we start doing the same.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 05, 2021, 02:45:30 PM
How is a sociologist a public health expert and why do the BBC continue to quote one?

BBC commentators, in particular Nick Triggle, seem very pro lifting all remaining restrictions. They totally ignore that masks protect other people as well as the wearer.

Meanwhile our government ignores the advice of the World Health Organisation:

Quote
The World Health Organization on Friday urged fully vaccinated people to continue to wear masks, social distance and practice other Covid-19 pandemic safety measures as the highly contagious delta variant spreads rapidly across the globe.

“People cannot feel safe just because they had the two doses. They still need to protect themselves,” Dr. Mariangela Simao, WHO assistant director-general for access to medicines and health products, said during a news briefing from the agency’s Geneva headquarters.

“Vaccine alone won’t stop community transmission,” Simao added. “People need to continue to use masks consistently, be in ventilated spaces, hand hygiene ... the physical distance, avoid crowding. This still continues to be extremely important, even if you’re vaccinated when you have a community transmission ongoing.”..

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/25/delta-who-urges-fully-vaccinated-people-to-continue-to-wear-masks-as-variant-spreads.html
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on July 05, 2021, 03:14:31 PM
Triggle is a fucking cunt and has been throughout. Weasel word fuck.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 05, 2021, 03:27:21 PM
Has there actually been any science on the masks though?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on July 05, 2021, 03:32:04 PM
Loads and loads, you must be joking.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: chveik on July 05, 2021, 03:59:53 PM
unbelievable. a year and there are still posts like this
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: metaltax on July 05, 2021, 04:16:06 PM
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/masking-science-sars-cov2.html
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 05, 2021, 04:47:56 PM
I guess it's still up for debate as you can just as easily find studies for and against

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33205991/
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on July 05, 2021, 04:55:17 PM
"Against" is a strong word there.

I think you also have to consider the cost of wearing masks (close to zero), the broad credibility of a mechanism by which they might help (decent), and the risks that masks might be thought to pose (not non-existent, certainly in some populations - there are concerns about handling them for example - but low).
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 05, 2021, 04:56:04 PM
It's also easy to find responses to that trial

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/11/24/covid-19-controversial-trial-may-actually-show-that-masks-protect-the-wearer/

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4586
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bomb_dog on July 05, 2021, 04:57:50 PM
Quote
Conclusion: The recommendation to wear surgical masks to supplement other public health measures did not reduce the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate among wearers by more than 50% in a community with modest infection rates, some degree of social distancing, and uncommon general mask use. The data were compatible with lesser degrees of self-protection

19th July will likely have very little social distancing. The limitations on that paper are also quite damning to be able to draw that conclusion from it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on July 05, 2021, 05:00:15 PM
I always used to assume people were being ironic or trolling but, increasingly, I realise it's neither.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: metaltax on July 05, 2021, 05:00:55 PM
I guess it's still up for debate as you can just as easily find studies for and against

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33205991/

Interesting example, that. The study I posted was about whether wearing a mask blocks transmission of the virus. The study you posted was about whether mask wearing reduced the risk of catching it. The outcome of the 2 studies broadly shows what the official line is - mask wearing protects other people from you more than it protects you from other people, and this is why the Government's line on "take individual responsibility" is a load of bollocks because it reinforces people's mistaken belief that they only have to take responsibility for their own health.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 05, 2021, 05:09:38 PM
I always used to assume people were being ironic or trolling but, increasingly, I realise it's neither.

Now you realise how the rest of us feel!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Captain Z on July 05, 2021, 05:17:29 PM
I guess it's still up for debate as you can just as easily find studies for and against

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33205991/

Still going with this one huh? Literally all you have to do is read the sentence under "Conclusions" and you should realise that this isn't actually supporting your opinion.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 05, 2021, 05:25:28 PM
Whitty and Valance standing there while this psycho makes himself hard thinking about the right-wing press' headlines tomorrow.

Fuck them all.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bomb_dog on July 05, 2021, 05:29:53 PM
Joris’ example of when it’s ok to not wear a mask is an empty train carriage late at night.
Hmmmm

And yes the other two says WEAR MASKS. This is basically a 3-month window they think they can get out of paying furlough before the next lockdown kicks in for the winter.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 05, 2021, 05:32:10 PM
Quote
Whitty says the winter is likely to be tricky. It might get “very difficult” for the NHS because of Covid and other respiratory diseases.

So why spend summer rolling out the red carpet for a worse variant?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 05, 2021, 05:39:14 PM
I guess it's still up for debate as you can just as easily find studies for and against

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33205991/

Please enter plague pit
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on July 05, 2021, 05:56:58 PM
Now you realise how the rest of us feel!

Here's a guide:

Movies forum - sincere.
Games - very much depends on who I'm replying to and on what topic.
GB - largely can't bear the topics on there these days or the pontificating so probably just taking the piss out of someone, but sometime sincere.
Music - no interest in talking about music any more, just listen to the bloody stuff.
Comedy - as above.
Covid - only post for the camaraderie, I know too many people who died from it to engage in any serious discussion.
HS Art - sincere, and affectionate.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 05, 2021, 06:34:03 PM
Fucking enraged at the stupidity and venality of our government and really hoping we don't need a winter lockdown like the previous one. And if we do, all the Tories waving away our objections now will just say "Captain Hindsight! Captain Hindsight!"

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 05, 2021, 07:03:22 PM
Whitty should be dominating these cunts. Disappointing he and Vallance have gone into bat for them in the press conferences over and over again, occasionally spouting fundamentally incomplete and dishonest statements to try and square the fact they don't agree with what the government are doing but can't come out and say it. Yes, they got served a shit sandwich, I get that, and there's no way to win, but for the sake of your own integrity stop the obsequious deference and speak your minds on the key issues clearly. They look flustered and terrified, which gives the impression they wilt under pressure.

Obviously this is all the government's fault and I don't forget that for a second.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 05, 2021, 07:12:00 PM
Why would there be a requirement for a winter lockdown? Cases are skyrocketing in the UK (but deaths remain low) so they’re plowing ahead with the reopening. If that happens in December I don’t think you’d get a different government response.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 05, 2021, 07:19:47 PM
 The red line is the NHS being overwhelmed, whether that's through death or any other reason. That has always been the case from the start.

Because of the expectation of an explosion of other non Covid illnesses people are exposed to and the dice roll of potential new variants and harsh winter, with high staff attrition on top of an existing staffing crisis and Brexit based issues with recruitment it is highly likely the NHS will be stretched unless it is protected.

I expect another winter lockdown or similar even if that isn't what it's officially called. That was an early call I made last February. Be delighted to be wrong.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 05, 2021, 07:26:11 PM
Here's a guide:

Movies forum - sincere.
Games - very much depends on who I'm replying to and on what topic.
GB - largely can't bear the topics on there these days or the pontificating so probably just taking the piss out of someone, but sometime sincere.
Music - no interest in talking about music any more, just listen to the bloody stuff.
Comedy - as above.
Covid - only post for the camaraderie, I know too many people who died from it to engage in any serious discussion.
HS Art - sincere, and affectionate.

Sport - Rabid Roy Chubby Brown
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 05, 2021, 07:27:49 PM
The red line is the NHS being overwhelmed, whether that's through death or any other reason. That has always been the case from the start.

Because of the expectation of an explosion of other non Covid illnesses people are exposed to and the dice roll of potential new variants and harsh winter, with high staff attrition on top of an existing staffing crisis and Brexit based issues with recruitment it is highly likely the NHS will be stretched unless it is protected.

I expect another winter lockdown or similar even if that isn't what it's officially called. That was an early call I made last February. Be delighted to be wrong.

New hospitalizations were an order of magnitude higher in the UK 5 months ago, and the healthcare system muddled through with varying levels of success. Deaths were 1,000 a day on average - what’s that, 50x higher than the middle of this wave? I doubt there will be another lockdown anywhere in the west - it’s a vote loser unless there is a very major change in events that makes the need for it patently and undeniably obvious for every Joe Soap reading his copy of the Sun.

Even if you and I think the need for certain restrictions is obvious, unless it is obvious in a way that even the most perma-beleaguered tory voter cannot deny, they won’t be implemented (and requests for them will be rebuffed with cloying “we’ve been through darker times” images of captain tom and blitz spirit 2020 bullshit). Time will tell I suppose.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 05, 2021, 07:30:16 PM
We're all going to die lads.

Or at the very least never breathe properly again.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 05, 2021, 07:31:53 PM
Why would there be a requirement for a winter lockdown? Cases are skyrocketing in the UK (but deaths remain low) so they’re plowing ahead with the reopening. If that happens in December I don’t think you’d get a different government response.

90,000 infections per day by Freedom day, a percentage of those will be dead shortly after, a percentage and not insignificant number will be seriously ill and have lasting consequences, the majority will be selfish fucks gurning on their tik toks and telling me to shut the fuck up you fucking masked poofter as they did today.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 05, 2021, 07:42:15 PM
I just don't see how the government can be wrong again.


I know they haven't got a great track record but they, including Whitty have had enough experience with it now to know whether it's safe or not.

The NHS survived last winter when there were covid cases in hospitals. Now there are hardly any cases in hospital in comparison, where's the issue?

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 05, 2021, 07:43:06 PM
I just don't see how the government can be wrong again.


Oof.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 05, 2021, 07:44:59 PM
But hasn't Whitty specifically said 'keep wearing masks and social distancing, even after the 19th' whereas every Tory seems to be saying 'go mental, I'm not wearing a mask after the 19th'
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 05, 2021, 07:47:20 PM
I just don't see how the government can be wrong again.


I know they haven't got a great track record but they, including Whitty have had enough experience with it now to know whether it's safe or not.

The NHS survived last winter when there were covid cases in hospitals. Now there are hardly any cases in hospital in comparison, where's the issue?

*nods sagely* - oh wise one, how can I enter the gates of Samsara?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 05, 2021, 07:47:52 PM
I'm sure he'd quit if he felt that strongly about it?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 05, 2021, 07:49:13 PM
The NHS survived? Only a reprieve until Javid gifts it to his pals.

And even if the NHS did survive ten of thousands of people didn't.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 05, 2021, 07:49:31 PM
90,000 infections per day by Freedom day, a percentage of those will be dead shortly after, a percentage and not insignificant number will be seriously ill and have lasting consequences, the majority will be selfish fucks gurning on their tik toks and telling me to shut the fuck up you fucking masked poofter as they did today.

People are cunts, sorry you had to deal with that.

90k a day seems incredibly high, would be interested to know what that’s based on. I’m thinking of that graph posted a few weeks ago predicting 14k people per day doing into hospital by the end of June with a big “WE ARE HERE” label on it - there has undeniably been an explosion in cases, but his prediction has been objectively bang wrong by several orders of magnitude.

It’s an example that proves a wider point - I think people can fixate on the worst possible outcome without acknowledging that it is not nailed on (or in some cases, even realistic). That has consequences on people’s mental health - you’ll remember that specific graph pissed me off because I knew it would contribute to 2 family members’ anxiety, and it did. They were really worried about it all and made themselves fairly unwell, but it was anxiety inducing nonsense.

That was sort of my point at the time - now the doom-mongering in the guardian and BBC has moved onto “well, we may have been wrong about that, but what about variants that might come into existence then? Eh? Eh?!” and at a certain point I just switch off because what if a piano fell from the sky while walking my dog[1]?

I understand there are risks (and I’m being quasi-facetious of course) but there seems to be this perverse attitude in certain aspects of the British media that is hoping for the absolute worst for everyone. Case in point - I see 5 million people are “BANNED” from Europe because of where their vaccine was manufactured under license… but are they actually? Of course not - some boffin in a government department will fax something over to the EU and the protocols will be updated. But did I hear about it from worried family members and how it might impact seeing family on the continent? You bet I did.

I find it all very grating, and every so often I vent about it on here (for which I apologize, though if you read all that you only have yourself to blame). I hope that doesn’t sound like it was aimed at you Blods, it wasn’t at all. I’m just interested in knowing where figures come from and the underlying thinking so I can prepare myself for them coming to pass (or the probability of them not happening).
 1. I don’t have a dog
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 05, 2021, 07:51:01 PM
Based on SPI-M models, which have been pretty accurate so far.


Your rants are coming from a good place. I do wonder if Canada is facing the same strife. I would imagine you and (Can) family are very safe, located where you are? Is this untrue?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 05, 2021, 07:56:48 PM
I just don't see how the government can be wrong again.


I know they haven't got a great track record but they, including Whitty have had enough experience with it now to know whether it's safe or not.

The NHS survived last winter when there were covid cases in hospitals. Now there are hardly any cases in hospital in comparison, where's the issue?

Last year the flu was practically a non-issue due to lockdowns. With all restrictions lifted, we'll have to contend with huge numbers of Covid patients alongside a normal flu season.

Add that to the huge backlog of treatments as well as all of the NHS workers who have loads of holiday carried over from last year that they need to take before a certain point.

The NHS needs a period of recovery.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 05, 2021, 07:58:32 PM
Probably a worse than normal flu season as usually anyone who had it the previous year has some carried-over immunity.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on July 05, 2021, 08:00:06 PM
I understand there are risks (and I’m being quasi-facetious of course) but there seems to be this perverse attitude in certain aspects of the British media that is hoping for the absolute worst for everyone. Case in point - I see 5 million people are “BANNED” from Europe because of where their vaccine was manufactured under license… but are they actually? Of course not - some boffin in a government department will fax something over to the EU and the protocols will be updated. But did I hear about it from worried family members and how it might impact seeing family on the continent? You bet I did.
If so, that's in part of because of [Westminster] press pressure, I suggest.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on July 05, 2021, 08:02:06 PM
If we're lucky, sort of, we'll have reduced flu deaths for a couple of years (despite the possibility of rampant spread if vaccines don't work out well) because we just killed almost everyone really vulnerable to respiratory illnesses.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on July 05, 2021, 08:05:03 PM
Obviously this is all the government's fault and I don't forget that for a second.
One thing that the last year should have made clear is that we cannot draw a neat dividing line of culpability between the ostensibly political and administrative parts of the British state. The prejudices go very deep, and the tolerance of these even deeper still.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 05, 2021, 08:09:13 PM
Based on SPI-M models, which have been pretty accurate so far.


Your rants are coming from a good place. I do wonder if Canada is facing the same strife. I would imagine you and (Can) family are very safe, located where you are? Is this untrue?

I hope they don’t come across as rants! More venting than anything. And I hope I’m not being callous either - I’m frustrated on the basis of concern for family in the UK and what all this news coverage is doing. I can see it impacting them and there’s nothing I can do about it, and occasionally that compels a long post from me. We’re also far from risk-free, I’ll remind you which basket case plague-nation is over the border and will likely be allowed visa free access again in the next 2 weeks…

Nova Scotia has had very low case counts since mid June, though April and May were very bad (driven by the UK variant) and our vaccine program was several months behind were the UK is now. Peak was around 170 cases per 100k of population with about 20% of the population with one dose - probably a lower case count than the UK, but far more dangerous because the vaccination level meant basically everyone under 65 was unprotected, and those over 65 likely only had one dose. We shut down everything for 2 months and ramped up vaccinations, which are now about on par with Britain. We’re also keeping common sense stuff in place like testing inbound passengers, masks and social distancing basically forever.

The UK seems torn between one half of the media muttering darkly about how everyone is doomed, and the other half suggesting that not licking doorknobs is somehow unpatriotic, and I worry about the impact that has on people. Though I’m probably being overly paternalistic and should just let it go.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 05, 2021, 08:10:04 PM
If we're lucky, sort of, we'll have reduced flu deaths for a couple of years (despite the possibility of rampant spread if vaccines don't work out well) because we just killed almost everyone really vulnerable to respiratory illnesses.

Every cloud!

Christ it’s all so bleak.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: SpiderChrist on July 05, 2021, 08:11:40 PM
I just don't see how the government can be wrong again.

:-/

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on July 05, 2021, 08:15:01 PM
Christ it’s all so bleak.
One of my favourite tidbits of epidemiology is that this - giving rise to the cycles of low and high years of flu deaths - is apparently known as "harvesting".
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 05, 2021, 08:27:44 PM
One of my favourite tidbits of epidemiology is that this - giving rise to the cycles of low and high years of flu deaths - is apparently known as "harvesting".

That is wonderfully bleak.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: metaltax on July 05, 2021, 08:44:00 PM
I just don't see how the government can be wrong again.

They're not wrong as much as they're willingly ignoring overwhelming evidence (and, arguably, common sense) to choose the least-right option because it'll make them look good to their rich and powerful mates today. The fallout of that is tomorrow-them's problem, and they've already set things up to lay the blame at the feet of those who do get sick because they didn't make the right personal choices.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on July 05, 2021, 09:01:12 PM
Sport - Rabid Roy Chubby Brown

Hopefully much worse than that.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 05, 2021, 09:07:45 PM
One thing that the last year should have made clear is that we cannot draw a neat dividing line of culpability between the ostensibly political and administrative parts of the British state. The prejudices go very deep, and the tolerance of these even deeper still.

Yes fair, I was not attempting a full postmortem with that throwaway remark, though.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 05, 2021, 09:11:03 PM
New hospitalizations were an order of magnitude higher in the UK 5 months ago, and the healthcare system muddled through with varying levels of success. Deaths were 1,000 a day on average - what’s that, 50x higher than the middle of this wave? I doubt there will be another lockdown anywhere in the west - it’s a vote loser unless there is a very major change in events that makes the need for it patently and undeniably obvious for every Joe Soap reading his copy of the Sun.

Even if you and I think the need for certain restrictions is obvious, unless it is obvious in a way that even the most perma-beleaguered tory voter cannot deny, they won’t be implemented (and requests for them will be rebuffed with cloying “we’ve been through darker times” images of captain tom and blitz spirit 2020 bullshit). Time will tell I suppose.

This doesn't seem to have addressed the factors I highlighted or their potential. Whitty has flagged this today, 6 months ahead of time which should alone provide pause for thought.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 05, 2021, 11:14:47 PM
This doesn't seem to have addressed the factors I highlighted or their potential. Whitty has flagged this today, 6 months ahead of time which should alone provide pause for thought.

You said the red line is protecting the NHS (with which I agree), and I pointed out people aren’t dying or having severe cases in the same magnitude they were a few months ago (ergo the NHS has gone through worse and will probably survive this bump). Then I added on why I didn’t think lockdowns were going to happen in future.

Not sure what else there was to address. Whether or not the winter will be harsh? Staffing concerns I suppose, but those would be there regardless of covid.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 05, 2021, 11:15:33 PM
Compulsory mass fucking in the haystacks has coincided with the lamda variant.

That worse or nicer than the Delta?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on July 05, 2021, 11:19:02 PM
I was not attempting a full postmortem with that throwaway remark, though.
Understood, and I'm sorry for coming across like I was having a go.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 06, 2021, 07:12:47 AM
Compulsory mass fucking in the haystacks has coincided with the lamda variant.

That worse or nicer than the Delta?

Cursory glance at journos pretending to know science is ‘worse’ (vaccine evading) but i’ll wait for steveh rather than listen to clickbaiters in suits
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on July 06, 2021, 09:07:58 AM
Don't think there's enough data yet for the Lambda Variant to make strong conclusions, but while it possibly has a slight edge on Delta in transmissibility, this paper (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.02.450959v1) says current vaccines remain protective with only a minor impact. As I posted before, the virus appears to have more evolutionary space to develop ways to improve transmission than it does ways to evade the vaccine.

With the UK axing restrictions, we now have high rates of transmission in an unvaccinated population of children mixing with a vaccinated or partially-vaccinated population, which could flush out some further evolutions that do manage more effective vaccine escape.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 06, 2021, 09:14:08 AM
Quote
Health Secretary Sajid Javid says it will be up to shops and transport operators to have their own policy on masks.

"It shouldn’t be a central diktat," he tells BBC Breakfast.

"It’s about relying on sensible guidance as we move to a world that feels much more like normal."

Just imagine this - Bus company A which serves Farttown does still require masks but Bus Company B which serves Farttown does not.  One supermarket requires masks, one does not. How many people will bother taking note of which shop and public transport company requires masks and which one does not? No doubt the ones that still require masks will see protests from anti-mask idiots.

If Javid dislikes "central diktats" so much, will he restore more powers to local government?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Old Thrashbarg on July 06, 2021, 09:17:38 AM
Just imagine this - Bus company A which serves Farttown does still require masks but Bus Company B which serves Farttown does not.  [...] How many people will bother taking note of which [...] public transport company requires masks and which one does not?

Best option in this scenario is to avoid Huddersfield completely.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 06, 2021, 09:18:16 AM
Javid today

Quote
This is uncharted territory for anyone, any country in the world. As you go further out, week by week, then the numbers in terms of projections are even less reliable. But I said this in parliament yesterday, that by the time we get to 19 July we would expect the case numbers by then to be at least double what they are now – so around 50,000 new cases a day. As we ease and go into the summer, we expect them to rise significantly and they could go as high as 100,000 case numbers. We want to be very straightforward about this, what we can expect in terms of case numbers. But what matters more than anything is the hospitalisation and death numbers, and that is where the link is really weak.

How many deaths will this mean? How many young people with a lifelong debilitating condition?

It's insane. He's fucking showing off about how much he is going to fuck us all. These people need to be locked away where they can't harm anyone else.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 06, 2021, 09:31:02 AM
Meanwhile Nick Triggle's latest OPEN THE PUBS bullshit is on the BBC News front page: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57678942

Only one sentence on Long Covid.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 06, 2021, 09:35:34 AM
So is the plan to get a big wave going now, then have a nice natural dip before Christmas, then another massive wave post-Christmas?

If we wait and open in a few months instead, we'll have a mega wave before Christmas and that will make everyone sad.

Just imagine this - Bus company A which serves Farttown does still require masks but Bus Company B which serves Farttown does not.  One supermarket requires masks, one does not. How many people will bother taking note of which shop and public transport company requires masks and which one does not? 

I guess that's the free market at work. Let people vote with their wallets and the "best" one will win. It's Javid's wet dream.

But as you say, how will people know which company has which rules...
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 06, 2021, 09:39:28 AM
#takeoffyourmask is trending on Twitter. I hate people.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 06, 2021, 09:43:59 AM
tbf the first one I saw was quite good: https://twitter.com/one_jason/status/1412154447992700931
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on July 06, 2021, 09:52:22 AM
Here's the thing though, and the thing these cunts absolutely never, ever, ever get: things can't get back to normal if we have 100,000 new cases a day. That's 100,000 people self isolating, plus whoever they live with, plus anyone they're having close contact with. That's not normal. That's the local pub being shut for a week numbers, sorry we're understaffed in Tesco numbers, sorry the post can't be delivered today numbers, sorry we're very stretched in A&E so you'll be waiting a while numbers. We'll be lucky if the country fucking functions.

Again and again these people believe they can just wave a magic wand and be done with it. We need some mitigations here, while everyone can be jabbed and simply to prevent everything being swamped. Why not wait a month to take the edge off this?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 06, 2021, 09:55:35 AM
I agree, although I think they plan to replace isolation for close contacts with daily lateral flow tests. It's bizarre that businesses aren't worried about how they will operate with the potential for many of their staff having to isolate.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Old Thrashbarg on July 06, 2021, 10:06:43 AM
Why not wait a month to take the edge off this?

The danger with this is that it pushes the exit wave, which is inevitable if restrictions are removed before virtually full vaccine coverage, into the autumn when other respiratory diseases are likely to flare up. Obviously there would be a month's worth of additional vaccinations administered as well, which you'd expect would help reduce the size of the wave, but it's a balancing act.

Not that we'd have to do any more opening up until significantly greater vaccination coverage if there was proper financial support in places for industries that are currently unable to function fully.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 06, 2021, 10:41:30 AM
I guess the plan is to do away with isolation. Use your common sense etc. If you're sick but not that sick, go about your business like the old normal. If you're too ill to be productive, you can have a day at home.

Regarding unlocking now We're going to have a winter wave regardless but if we have a mini wave now, the winter wave won't be as bad. Two small waves is better than one big wave.

It's not ideal but it makes sense.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Bernice on July 06, 2021, 10:45:16 AM
I guess the plan is to do away with isolation. Use your common sense etc. If you're sick but not that sick, go about your business like the old normal. If you're too ill to be productive, you can have a day at home.

The severity of your symptoms has no bearing on how contagious you are, though?

If we genuinely come out of all this with people still going into the office when they're sick, there is absolutely no hope for humanity to ever learn a fucking thing.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 06, 2021, 10:51:26 AM
Quote
If we genuinely come out of all this with people still going into the office when they're sick, there is absolutely no hope for humanity to ever learn a fucking thing.

100%

Not only sick but sick with something capable of wrecking someone's life, not just feeling sniffly and under the weather.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 06, 2021, 10:55:12 AM
The severity of your symptoms has no bearing on how contagious you are, though?

If we genuinely come out of all this with people still going into the office when they're sick, there is absolutely no hope for humanity to ever learn a fucking thing.

Who knows. Not saying that's what I would recommend but it seems like that or lockdown. If you have the middle ground of loads of cases and isolation but trying to have everything open, it's going to be carnage.

Look at the shit show in Sydney with that hospital where they made 100s of medical staff isolate over 1 case. No one wants that sort of over reaction.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: metaltax on July 06, 2021, 10:56:34 AM
All of this only means freedom for some people. My Mum, who's immuno-compromised thanks to medication but can go about her business carefully but normally under current restrictions, now faces having to essentially lock down again because she daren't put herself into a situation where people are maskless and not social distancing, and it's not like that situation's going to get any better anytime soon.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 06, 2021, 10:59:05 AM
#takeoffyourmask is trending on Twitter. I hate people.

Twitter is a cesspit of OPEN THE PUBS accounts.

A lot of anti-maskers seem to respond on Twitter and on local newspaper comment sections to any reasoned argument for keeping masks and other COVID mitigation measures with nonsense like "DO YOU WANT TO HIDE BEHIND THE SOFA FOR THE REST OF YOUR LIFE" As if doing that and opening up fully are the only two options.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: buttgammon on July 06, 2021, 11:11:41 AM
All of this only means freedom for some people. My Mum, who's immuno-compromised thanks to medication but can go about her business carefully but normally under current restrictions, now faces having to essentially lock down again because she daren't put herself into a situation where people are maskless and not social distancing, and it's not like that situation's going to get any better anytime soon.

This is an important point, but as ever, the word 'freedom' is being entirely abused. If people are allowed to engage in selfish behaviour with no consequences, that doesn't mean freedom for everyone.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Bernice on July 06, 2021, 11:16:42 AM
Who knows. Not saying that's what I would recommend but it seems like that or lockdown. If you have the middle ground of loads of cases and isolation but trying to have everything open, it's going to be carnage.

I'm talking about not going into the office when you're sick, which is a no-brainer. Even with minor respiratory illnesses before this pandemic people should have been expected to stay at home and effectively isolate themselves, as much as possible, when ill.

The future of contact tracing is a different question, and I imagine that will very much hinge on the likely severity of COIVD once herd immunity (via vaccinations and infection) sets into the population.

To reiterate what has been said a thousand times before, and people still somehow fail to grasp: the real trade-off is not between economic activity and protective public health measures. This is a daft way of framing it. If a highly transmissible and deadly virus is tearing through the population, everyday life ceases to function normally. Social distancing, contact-tracing, quarantine etc are measures that allow for some normal activity to continue as best it can under those circumstances.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on July 06, 2021, 11:17:59 AM
The severity of your symptoms has no bearing on how contagious you are, though?

No. There are some people who happen to have physical characteristics that make them especially good spreaders and it's only a couple of days prior to the onset of symptoms to a few days after that people are especially contagious (https://theconversation.com/covid-19-when-are-you-most-infectious-150760), which doesn't correspond with when people are most ill.

There was a statistic I saw recently that at any one time, 2% of the people with Covid have 80% of the virus particles due to the phase of illness they are in and being good spreaders. That explains why you can get such sudden explosions in cases.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 06, 2021, 11:22:34 AM
If we genuinely come out of all this with people still going into the office when they're sick, there is absolutely no hope for humanity to ever learn a fucking thing.

Yeah surely that can’t be the plan, that’s ludicrous.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 06, 2021, 11:25:29 AM
Twitter is a cesspit of OPEN THE PUBS accounts.

A lot of anti-maskers seem to respond on Twitter and on local newspaper comment sections to any reasoned argument for keeping masks and other COVID mitigation measures with nonsense like "DO YOU WANT TO HIDE BEHIND THE SOFA FOR THE REST OF YOUR LIFE" As if doing that and opening up fully are the only two options.
Fucking nuance, how does it work? I've visited my parents, on Saturday I went for lunch with friends I hadn't seen in over a year, I go shopping, I go for walks, I'm hardly hiding behind my fucking sofa just because I wear a mask.
I guess the plan is to do away with isolation. Use your common sense etc. If you're sick but not that sick, go about your business like the old normal. If you're too ill to be productive, you can have a day at home.

Regarding unlocking now We're going to have a winter wave regardless but if we have a mini wave now, the winter wave won't be as bad. Two small waves is better than one big wave.

It's not ideal but it makes sense.
Sure, but do we trust the majority of the British public to use their common sense?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 06, 2021, 11:28:13 AM
The obese are elderly spread covid more than anyone else. Should they be forced to isolate more than skinny young people (or whoever spreads it the least). Doesn't seem fair.

I know science doesn't care about my feelings etc but I can see why they've taken the blanket approach to restrictions even if it has been very unscientific.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 06, 2021, 11:34:05 AM
Obese people spread covid more than anyone else?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Bernice on July 06, 2021, 11:35:31 AM
I think that might be not a fact.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 06, 2021, 11:37:25 AM
Obese people spread covid more than anyone else?

“Just more of me to love incubate a virus.”
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 06, 2021, 11:41:44 AM
I thought it was more that fat people were more likely to suffer from COVID because their bodies are less equipped to handle the 'rona.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 06, 2021, 11:44:52 AM
BBC News hiding this article down near the bottom of the page:

Quote
The end of England's lockdown rules on 19 July has been dubbed "Freedom Day" - but for some people, it's becoming a day to dread.

"For us it's not freedom day, is it?" says Rosie Duffin, 74, from Fareham, in Hampshire. "It's 'becoming a hermit day' once again. It might be freedom for others, definitely not for us."

The retired NHS worker has secondary breast cancer and is considered clinically extremely vulnerable. Although she's been vaccinated, she says she was horrified when she heard that face masks may no longer be required. "It doesn't make sense really, does it?" she says.

"I don't see the problem with wearing face masks. When it comes to my own protection, and the protection of others, surely it's a small thing to do."

Rosie says she is now planning to cancel trips and events she had planned. "I've got a theatre trip booked but there's no way I'm going to be sitting in a theatre next to people who are not wearing masks," she says.

And she will no longer travel to London to see family, who she hasn't seen since 2019. "It's frightening that freedom from masks will inevitably diminish my freedom to participate in daily life."...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57643063
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 06, 2021, 11:47:57 AM
I thought it was more that fat people were more likely to suffer from COVID because their bodies are less equipped to handle the 'rona.

And therefore would be more symptomatic and spread it more.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 06, 2021, 11:51:59 AM
Does being symptomatic mean you spread the virus more?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Bernice on July 06, 2021, 12:05:48 PM
If the symptoms are coughing/sneezing then yes, in theory. Equally, the more symptomatic you are, the more likely you'd be to stay at home.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 06, 2021, 12:13:47 PM
Worth a read https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1412348342923845633.html
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Blinder Data on July 06, 2021, 12:30:55 PM
ahead of an inevitable wave of COVID plus whatever else this autumn/winter, it makes sense to relax more restrictions during good weather/school holidays. I don't know what the alternative would be - stay with the status quo until we lock down in the autumn till Spring 2022? and then what? talk of the last set of relaxations being "irreversible" no longer applies now though, surely - unless winter is better than everyone expects

the UK gov advice on face masks and social distancing is horrendous and I genuinely feel for people who are vulnerable. but there has to come a point in time where we learn to live with it in some respects - not in a mad Javid way obvs! I'm not saying the point in time to end all restrictions in England is in two weeks; honestly I couldn't tell you what the solution is, but the public's consent is required to make this work so it's no point having endless lockdowns which nobody follows due to fatigue.

it seems the UK gov is thinking "give people some summer fun and we'll see how the dust settles in autumn". let's hope the vaccines keep working their magic

I'm meant to be going to a wedding in England in August. I fully expected it to be restricted somehow - a pre-COVID style wedding next month is a disconcerting concept
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 06, 2021, 12:33:56 PM
If the symptoms are coughing/sneezing then yes, in theory. Equally, the more symptomatic you are, the more likely you'd be to stay at home.

I suppose, one could argue asymptomatic hay fever sufferers or people with persists coughs are way more dangerous than us fatties.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 06, 2021, 12:42:43 PM
Obese people spread covid more than anyone else?

Yes, I'm afraid so.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/elderly-and-overweight-are-the-real-covid-super-spreaders-0w0zxlrp7

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/8/e2021830118
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on July 06, 2021, 12:44:43 PM
Looks like the rest of this year is wiped. After getting this far, I don't intend to catch Covid now just because of a machiavellian investment banker health minister twat.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 06, 2021, 12:45:18 PM
I thought it was more that fat people were more likely to suffer from COVID because their bodies are less equipped to handle the 'rona.

They expell more aerosols apparently.

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/8/e2021830118

So as well as getting sicker, they also spread it more. Thank god for eat out to help out!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 06, 2021, 12:50:18 PM
Worth a read https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1412348342923845633.html

China test for covid so differently to us that you cannot compare at all. They've not been using a single PCR test to confirm a case for so long now.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 06, 2021, 01:37:20 PM
Another thought - isn't announcing the end of masks on the 19th July so early going to lead to even less compliance between now and the 19th July?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Psybro on July 06, 2021, 02:15:03 PM
If hospitalisations get out of hand we'll see Health minister Mr Lizard confirms the view of the Secretary of State, Another Mr Lizard, that "you did it".
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 06, 2021, 04:20:19 PM
37 deaths within 28 days of a positive COVID test today.

406 patients admitted with COVID on the 30th June.

Yet still we plan to get rid of all restrictions on the 19th July.

First dose vaccinations seem to have slowed as well.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bomb_dog on July 06, 2021, 04:55:31 PM
It’s all fine. Watch the football.

Even the BBC has an big article along the lines of ‘oh well’.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on July 06, 2021, 05:05:29 PM
Average age of new cases is 24. Does it surprise anyone that the people who will suffer the most due to this gung ho 'freedom day' on 19th July will be young people?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 06, 2021, 05:16:28 PM
We need to get more young people out and voting. Labour used to have a leader who appealed to young people but now we have a leader who appeals to no-one.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 06, 2021, 05:17:09 PM
We need to get more young people out and voting. Labour used to have a leader who appealed to young people but now we have a leader who appeals to no-one.

John Bercow would beg to disagree.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pranet on July 06, 2021, 05:49:26 PM
We need to get more young people out and voting. Labour used to have a leader who appealed to young people but now we have a leader who appeals to no-one.

Yeah but Harold Wilson has been dead for years.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 06, 2021, 07:39:29 PM
ahead of an inevitable wave of COVID plus whatever else this autumn/winter, it makes sense to relax more restrictions during good weather/school holidays. I don't know what the alternative would be - stay with the status quo until we lock down in the autumn till Spring 2022? and then what? talk of the last set of relaxations being "irreversible" no longer applies now though, surely - unless winter is better than everyone expects

the UK gov advice on face masks and social distancing is horrendous and I genuinely feel for people who are vulnerable. but there has to come a point in time where we learn to live with it in some respects - not in a mad Javid way obvs! I'm not saying the point in time to end all restrictions in England is in two weeks; honestly I couldn't tell you what the solution is, but the public's consent is required to make this work so it's no point having endless lockdowns which nobody follows due to fatigue.

it seems the UK gov is thinking "give people some summer fun and we'll see how the dust settles in autumn". let's hope the vaccines keep working their magic

I'm meant to be going to a wedding in England in August. I fully expected it to be restricted somehow - a pre-COVID style wedding next month is a disconcerting concept
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 06, 2021, 07:41:21 PM
They expell more aerosols apparently.

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/8/e2021830118

So as well as getting sicker, they also spread it more. Thank god for eat out to help out!

Pfft (aerosol exhale). Who listens to Harvard/MIT academics anyway.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 06, 2021, 08:37:06 PM
From the Guardian:

Quote
Where does this leave clinically vulnerable people or those not yet vaccinated?

Essentially, at the mercy of others’ goodwill, or having to avoid crowded spaces. Downing Street says people will have to “use their personal judgement based on their individual circumstances”, with possible ideas for vulnerable people to only travel on public transport at quieter times of the day. Similarly, there will be no specific protection for clinically vulnerable people who feel they cannot return to their workplace if others there are not wearing masks or socially distancing.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 06, 2021, 09:03:50 PM
Unleash the hounds of despair, THE TORY PARTY ARE BACK IN TOWN!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on July 07, 2021, 12:20:30 AM
Basically, the sensible will have to avoid the stupid, and adjust behaviour. If maskless selfish bastards in shops are now spreading Covid aerosols, upgrade your mask to an N95 that filters the air, for example.

I feel sorry for those vulnerable to Covid, as they will be back to lockdown on 19th July, when the dumbasses are let loose to kickstart the pandemic again, and will have to be avoided.

The hedge fund manager government is letting us all down very badly. No sensible government in other countries would behave like this :-( Other countries are watching this with mouths agape in shock. Unbelievable.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 07, 2021, 07:13:20 AM
Except Brazil.

Boss advised the same to me. Buy those filter masks. Also rumblings that we’ll have to return to office meaning i may have to move to London or Leeds if Sajid is not stopped
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 07, 2021, 07:48:34 AM
And as I have said up thread, that task has been assigned to you. And if you do not find a way, no one will.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 07, 2021, 08:36:25 AM
I'm sure the vulnerable have been wearing proper n95 masks up until now any way. If you were at risk from covid you wouldn't take a chance on a piece of cloth you got from a clothes shop would you? They even say on the package they're not for medical use.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 07, 2021, 08:40:26 AM
I don't know much about N95 masks, how much do they cost and how often do you need to replace them?

Also, there may be some vulnerable people who would struggle to wear an N95 mask.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: metaltax on July 07, 2021, 08:44:33 AM
I'm sure the vulnerable have been wearing proper n95 masks up until now any way. If you were at risk from covid you wouldn't take a chance on a piece of cloth you got from a clothes shop would you? They even say on the package they're not for medical use.

How sure are you? It was incredibly difficult to get hold of N95 masks for at least a good chunk of last year (if it isn't still). You could find them at massively overinflated prices on Amazon and eBay but then you're taking your chances as to whether they're the real thing. I think people who were at increased risk (because we were all at risk to some degree) took their chances with whatever they could get their hands on, or stayed out of the way.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: buttgammon on July 07, 2021, 08:47:37 AM
I don't know much about N95 masks, how much do they cost and how often do you need to replace them?

Also, there may be some vulnerable people who would struggle to wear an N95 mask.

This article (https://www.wired.co.uk/article/what-are-n95-and-ffp2-face-masks) is from February and contains some info about pricing and availability in British pharmacies. I really hope they don't start jacking up the price on N95 masks if this becomes a widely discussed issue, as I suspect it will.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on July 07, 2021, 09:17:03 AM
FT today has a piece about how nervousness over the growing Covid wave has meant people already spending less:

Quote
But while economists predict the July reopening could deliver another boost to the recovery, they noted that measures of economic activity such as consumers’ mobility, bank transactions and restaurants bookings, fell throughout June or stalled despite eased restrictions as the Delta variant continued to spread.

...

The decline in consumer activity “could reflect increased nervousness as new infections rise”, said Kallum Pickering, senior economist at the bank Berenberg. He added that “even without new restrictions, the caution factor may drag on demand”.

https://www.ft.com/content/7d958f5d-879f-4704-b14f-9b1e7a21dc90 (FT paywall hint: click on link, select title, do Google search for it, click on results link to article.)

People have consistently been more cautious than the government allowed and throwing things open in July seems like it has the potential to hit the economy more than it helps.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 07, 2021, 09:19:20 AM
Easy solution: just stop publishing the covid data.

"It's time to move on"
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 07, 2021, 09:49:40 AM
Maybe the government have doing reverse psychology on us? No one trusts them so when they say it's bad, people think it's good. Now they're saying it's good, people think it must be terrible. They know people will stay in now, especially with their "it's time to move on (and forget about the deaths)" mantra

I'm a bit like that. I was all for opening everything up. But then when people like Javid and Boris say it's time to open up, I do wonder if I'm on the wrong side of the fence!

How sure are you?

True. I'm probably wrong as at the start of all this, I was sure the unfit, obese, type 2 diabetic, self inflicted metabolically compromised etc, people would've done all they could to get to a healthy state over the last 18 months but it doesn't seem to be the case.

I knew the Great British public were apathetic but I was a bit surprised that they/we took that approach to our/their health during a global pandemic as well.

I must admit, the idea of personal responsibility in general does appeal to me a bit. But most people really don't seem to give a fuck and are happy to crash the NHS rather than wear a mask/eat less shit food so maybe it's not the best approach for England. But then what's the alternative?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 07, 2021, 09:52:27 AM
Easy solution: just stop publishing the covid data.

"It's time to move on"

I read that some Tory MPs had suggested this. It just makes us gloomy you see. I can't find the source though.


Took a test yesterday - negative. Is it even worth reporting the result online. Does anyone give a shit?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 07, 2021, 09:58:05 AM
Quote
True. I'm probably wrong as at the start of all this, I was sure the unfit, obese, type 2 diabetic, self inflicted metabolically compromised etc, people would've done all they could to get to a healthy state over the last 18 months but it doesn't seem to be the case.

Many of these people will have complicated reasons for why their health is bad. I'm not sure what you expect them to do - the only things people can change are diet (not always easy when you are on a budget or when you are feeling low) and exercise (during lockdown, it's really demotivating to walk/run round the same old areas week after week, plus the failure of many to keep a 2 metre distance will have put a lot of people off).
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: metaltax on July 07, 2021, 10:01:13 AM
I'm probably wrong as at the start of all this, I was sure the unfit, obese, type 2 diabetic, self inflicted metabolically compromised etc, people would've done all they could to get to a healthy state over the last 18 months but it doesn't seem to be the case.

I knew the Great British public were apathetic but I was a bit surprised that they/we took that approach to our/their health during a global pandemic as well.

I must admit, the idea of personal responsibility in general does appeal to me a bit. But most people really don't seem to give a fuck and are happy to crash the NHS rather than wear a mask/eat less shit food so maybe it's not the best approach for England. But then what's the alternative?

You say that like it's fact but you're just making sweeping statements that have about as much validity as "all single mothers are a drain on the welfare system" and "unemployed people are all lazy and don't want to work"

It's not the vulnerable people who are the problem; it's the ones who are absolutely fine but are determined to go about their business as normal because they're not worried about Covid who need a good kicking.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on July 07, 2021, 10:05:02 AM
FT today has a piece about how nervousness over the growing Covid wave has meant people already spending less:

Purely anecdotal but we went for Sunday lunch at the local this week (in the garden of course) and there were five other tables in use, wasn't even half full. Did the same in May and it was full. Been cycling back from work at about 7ish all this week and last week and the only day the pubs were full was the England v Germany game. Definite drop on April/May.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 07, 2021, 10:08:14 AM
My parents are over later. My partner suggested we go for lunch on the High Street.

Hadn't even occured to me. Why would I do that when we can eat at home without inviting a load of cunts in to spray Covid over us?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 07, 2021, 10:16:36 AM
Hopefully it's a sign that our civilization is winding down. No more lunches out at shit restaurants. No more going to pubs. No more buying. No more adverts.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on July 07, 2021, 10:17:46 AM
Easy solution: just stop publishing the covid data.

"It's time to move on"

It's a bit annoying that the SAGE reports only come out after the government has made decisions.

Looking back at the last one though, hospitalisations are looking good (in the sense that a lot of worse scenarios were modelled).
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Blinder Data on July 07, 2021, 10:19:19 AM
"Sajid Javid earlier"

I'm sure you do amazing work IRL but your posting on here is often incomprehensible snide shite. Am I fuck like Sajid Javid. Less incomprehensible snide shite if you could Blodders, cheers
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 07, 2021, 10:27:03 AM
Purely anecdotal but we went for Sunday lunch at the local this week (in the garden of course) and there were five other tables in use, wasn't even half full. Did the same in May and it was full. Been cycling back from work at about 7ish all this week and last week and the only day the pubs were full was the England v Germany game. Definite drop on April/May.

That's weird. So during tighter restrictions, people were happier to go out, but now that we've got more "freedom" people are going out less?

Maybe people went out and they realised that it's not worth it when you have to book a table, order via an app, wear a mask to the toilet etc. Or maybe they spent all their money earlier on and are now skint? Or the rising cases put them off? Who knows...

It's not the vulnerable people who are the problem; it's the ones who are absolutely fine but are determined to go about their business as normal because they're not worried about Covid who need a good kicking.
It's probably a bit of both.

In other news, 9 out of 10 adults in England have antibodies in the week beginning 14 June 2021, "suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated." Surely that's good news? Only 1 in 10 of the adult population in England can get covid and they can't get it from 9 tenths of the population. What are the chances of catching it now? Surely it's going to burn it self out very quickly in the next few weeks. If 90% of adults being having antibodies isn't enough to stop it, will we ever stop it?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/7july2021
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: DrGreggles on July 07, 2021, 10:30:12 AM
It's probably a bit of both.

Good people on both sides...
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 07, 2021, 10:32:45 AM
Quote
That's weird. So during tighter restrictions, people were happier to go out, but now that we've got more "freedom" people are going out less?

I imagine a lot of people are put off by cases being much higher than in April and May.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Old Thrashbarg on July 07, 2021, 10:38:04 AM
In other news, 9 out of 10 adults in England have antibodies in the week beginning 14 June 2021, "suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated." Surely that's good news? Only 1 in 10 of the adult population in England can get covid and they can't get it from 9 tenths of the population. What are the chances of catching it now? Surely it's going to burn it self out very quickly in the next few weeks. If 90% of adults being having antibodies isn't enough to stop it, will we ever stop it?

Having antibodies doesn't mean you can't be infected or pass it on.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 07, 2021, 10:55:05 AM
Having antibodies doesn't mean you can't be infected or pass it on.

So what does stop you from getting infected or passing it on?

https://newsinhealth.nih.gov/2021/04/antibodies-protect-against-covid-19-reinfection
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 07, 2021, 11:01:50 AM
So what does stop you from getting infected or passing it on?

https://newsinhealth.nih.gov/2021/04/antibodies-protect-against-covid-19-reinfection

Staying away from people with covid and subsequently not getting covid
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on July 07, 2021, 11:21:04 AM
So what does stop you from getting infected or passing it on?

https://newsinhealth.nih.gov/2021/04/antibodies-protect-against-covid-19-reinfection

Antibodies* reduce the chance you'll pass it on, and most importantly reduce the chances you'll get seriously ill. No way of 100% stopping getting infected or passing it on short of isolation.

(*noting that antibodies aren't the be all or end of immunity)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 07, 2021, 11:36:15 AM
ECONOMY.

Just the thought of the ECONOMY opening up again has made me fucking jizz.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 07, 2021, 11:40:34 AM
OPEN THE PUBS
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Uncle TechTip on July 07, 2021, 11:55:52 AM
Tim Wetherspoons agrees. He just wishes he could find some staff.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 07, 2021, 12:51:56 PM
Aye. It's great to see house prices rocketing up. Gives me a warm feeling inside.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Captain Z on July 07, 2021, 01:18:39 PM
Footfall's coming home
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on July 07, 2021, 01:48:53 PM
N95 = FFP2 < FFP3

"N95 and FFP2 are approximately equivalent and are the minimum advised for working with aerosol producing procedures with COVID-19 positive patients". From:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7248188/

"FFP3, FFP2, N95, surgical masks and respirators: what should we be wearing for ophthalmic surgery in the COVID-19 pandemic?".
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on July 07, 2021, 01:58:35 PM
A good medical supply site used by the NHS & doctors, and also open to the public, is Medisave.

https://www.medisave.co.uk/search/?q=ffp3

I bought FFP3 masks earlier in the year, which arrived ok. Not the cheapest, but you know you're buying quality and not fake. I wouldn't trust Amazon for this.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Old Thrashbarg on July 07, 2021, 02:05:26 PM
So what does stop you from getting infected or passing it on?

https://newsinhealth.nih.gov/2021/04/antibodies-protect-against-covid-19-reinfection

As has been said, what stops you passing it on is not being infected. And what stops you being infected is not having any of the virus particles enter your body.

Antibodies are a part of your immune system, which can help to neutralise the virus after you're infected. For some people their immune system is effective enough that the virus might be completely neutralised very quickly. Or the amount of particles of the virus that enter their body might be small enough that it doesn't take much of an immune response to neutralise them. At which point they will probably not become ill from the virus and the chances of them being infectious are reduced as there's less infectious material left for them to pass on.

But for some people they might have a less effective immune system, so that even having antibodies present in their system is not enough to neutralise the virus if enough of it enters their body. Or previous infection/vaccination might not provoke enough of a response for a sufficient amount of antibodies to be created. And the virus is then able to replicate, spread throughout their body and likely cause illness. Which also means there is more infections material for them to pass on to others.

Obviously an extremely simplified version of what happens, but the important bit is that having antibodies does not mean you're immune from illness. And being immune from illness does not mean you're not infectious.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 07, 2021, 03:45:51 PM
Quote from: Chris Whitty
Since there’s a lot of Covid at the moment and the rates are going up I regret to say I think we will get a significant amount more long Covid, particularly in the younger ages where the vaccination rates are currently much lower.

Fundamentally the two ways to prevent long Covid in my view are to keep Covid rates right down and make sure everyone is vaccinated so they get very mild disease and I think we really just need to push hell for leather for those two.

The deaths from Covid I think are mercifully going to be much lower in this wave compared to the previous ones as a proportion of cases but long Covid remains, I think, a worry.

We don’t know how big an issue it’s going to be but I think we should assume it’s not going to be trivial.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 07, 2021, 03:57:07 PM
Harvesting the old crop and planting the seeds for a sickly, entropied crop.

Welcome to the Tory farm.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 07, 2021, 04:24:51 PM
32,548 reported cases
33 deaths within 28 days of a positive test
Under 100,000 first doses given again
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 07, 2021, 05:49:43 PM
The vaccine numbers are shocking. It doesn't seem like supply is the issue as there are plenty of pop-up vaccine centres and I've not heard anything anything about a drop in demand from the final 12% or so. It seems like they are just fucking up with distribution and not getting the jabs to the places they need to be.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 07, 2021, 05:55:30 PM
Oxford Central is one of the COVID epicentres in England now, in the seven days to 2nd July it had 376 cases with a case rate per 100,000 people of 2067.2. East Central Oxford had 154 cases in the seven days to 2nd July with a case rate per 100,000 people of 1,452.4.

99 people tested positive in Oxford (not just Oxford Central) today alone. Yet still the idiots on the Oxford Mail's comments section post utter COVID denier nonsense or claim they don't care.

In Oxford, 60.2% have their 1st dose and 35.1% have their second dose.

People here are more interested in football than FUCKDOWN (I know the two are not exclusive). Someone drove past with a full size St George's Cross flying from the roof of their car.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 07, 2021, 05:59:20 PM
I don't know much about N95 masks, how much do they cost and how often do you need to replace them?

Also, there may be some vulnerable people who would struggle to wear an N95 mask.

95 pence
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 07, 2021, 06:02:02 PM
Maybe the government have doing reverse psychology on us? No one trusts them so when they say it's bad, people think it's good. Now they're saying it's good, people think it must be terrible. They know people will stay in now, especially with their "it's time to move on (and forget about the deaths)" mantra

I'm a bit like that. I was all for opening everything up. But then when people like Javid and Boris say it's time to open up, I do wonder if I'm on the wrong side of the fence!

True. I'm probably wrong as at the start of all this, I was sure the unfit, obese, type 2 diabetic, self inflicted metabolically compromised etc, people would've done all they could to get to a healthy state over the last 18 months but it doesn't seem to be the case.

I knew the Great British public were apathetic but I was a bit surprised that they/we took that approach to our/their health during a global pandemic as well.

I must admit, the idea of personal responsibility in general does appeal to me a bit. But most people really don't seem to give a fuck and are happy to crash the NHS rather than wear a mask/eat less shit food so maybe it's not the best approach for England. But then what's the alternative?

Prick pricks again
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 07, 2021, 06:04:04 PM
I'm sure you do amazing work IRL but your posting on here is often incomprehensible snide shite. Am I fuck like Sajid Javid. Less incomprehensible snide shite if you could Blodders, cheers

The fuck you come across as. Load of cunts like drygate who deserve opprobrium . Just wind down your invalid points

Edit: read your post again. I think my post was a joke. Not Javid, more slackjaw
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 07, 2021, 06:05:23 PM
A good medical supply site used by the NHS & doctors, and also open to the public, is Medisave.

https://www.medisave.co.uk/search/?q=ffp3

I bought FFP3 masks earlier in the year, which arrived ok. Not the cheapest, but you know you're buying quality and not fake. I wouldn't trust Amazon for this.

Got a pack of 5 for 3.95. Con job?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 07, 2021, 06:12:30 PM
Netherlands are considering reversing reopening after their recent relaxations have caused a large spike in infections.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 07, 2021, 06:23:28 PM
2446 in hospital with Covid-related illness. That's +717 vs same time last week. Rate of increase has more than doubled very quickly. That's pretty alarming.


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/07/living-with-the-virus-uk-vaccinated-covid-cases

As for 'learning to live with it', no surprise what qualified professionals think of people parroting that nonsensical, ignorant received opinion. Shame on the milquetoast centrists now parroting it because it sounds convenient for their holiday plans.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 07, 2021, 06:41:10 PM
Im afraid that looks like a reversal will be needed pronto. Heard a great talk from quebec where they have a rapid response decision making process in place for the displaced and those without permanent abode. Pretty neat targeting known risk areas and sampling wastewater around shelters and known outdoor latrines. 3 day warning ahead of testing means they can pool resources to identify vulnerable population and get them all - infected or not - treatment / safe spaces
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: buttgammon on July 07, 2021, 06:47:05 PM
As for 'learning to live with it', no surprise what qualified professionals think of people parroting that nonsensical, ignorant received opinion. Shame on the milquetoast centrists now parroting it because it sounds convenient for their holiday plans.

It's such a childish phrase. The Irish government actually adopted it last year and it's been repeated by the usual suspects ever since; when they were forced to put the country back into lockdown after repeatedly ignoring their own scientific advisors, every conspiracy theorist, Ayn Rand fuckwit and selfish businessman would start screaming and crying "but I thought we were supposed to live with it! This isn't living" whenever the new restrictions inconvenienced them in some way.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 07, 2021, 06:49:30 PM
Im afraid that looks like a reversal will be needed pronto.

Sadly, with this government, just because something is needed doesn't mean we're going to get it. Not until at least a couple of weeks after we should have had it, anyway.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 07, 2021, 06:56:45 PM
Please please please please push back 'Freedom Day'. All I want in life is to see fucking idiots lose it on twitter.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on July 07, 2021, 07:21:24 PM
The Army seem to be getting a bit more visible again, off the back of Manchester it seems.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 07, 2021, 07:37:11 PM

.

Have they said anything about a connection between severity of covid and chances of getting long covid?

The last I read, they was a link. So if the vaccines keep the cases mild, won't that reduce the number of long covid cases?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: metaltax on July 07, 2021, 07:40:56 PM
Have they said anything about a connection between severity of covid and chances of getting long covid?

This page https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/long-term-effects-of-coronavirus-long-covid/

says

Quote
The chances of having long-term symptoms does not seem to be linked to how ill you are when you first get COVID-19.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 07, 2021, 07:52:02 PM
Thanks. So vaccinated people with mild symptoms could still get long covid. I wonder if they get a milder form of long covid.


Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 07, 2021, 07:52:15 PM
.

Have they said anything about a connection between severity of covid and chances of getting long covid?

The last I read, they was a link. So if the vaccines keep the cases mild, won't that reduce the number of long covid cases?

As with many illnesses, getting ill, in and of itself, take a toll - short-term and often long-term. If we are getting 100,000 cases per day, that's a hell of a lot of illness (even if its 10% who are symptomatic). Loss of productivity, mental health, impact on carers, support groups, the 'great unknown', triggering of complications with other long-term illnesses people may have. Although I don't think I've had Covid. The oedema I have looks likely to be from vaccination. I'm ok with it now - in the hope its an effect of the vaccine - but its causing a lot of mental stress and tiredness and lack of exercise that I sorely need. I am sure its far far worse for many who actually get the disease.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 07, 2021, 07:54:32 PM
Stop Javid
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 07, 2021, 07:55:20 PM
Stop Javid

Every saboteur needs a wingman (a getaway car, and a bolt hole)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bomb_dog on July 07, 2021, 08:11:11 PM
England losing tonight will likely save countless lives and long-covid sufferers through a reduction in unnecessary over-exuberant hugging.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on July 07, 2021, 08:14:37 PM
Every saboteur needs a wingman (a getaway car, and a bolt hole)

At the end of this, we will all be alone with the things we have done.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on July 07, 2021, 08:15:30 PM
Especially Christopher Whitty.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on July 07, 2021, 11:14:17 PM
Assuming current doubling time of 10 days, we'll be at about 65,000 cases per day by 19th July. But will it change anything? The hedge fund managers seem hell bent on 'Free Covid Day' happening. The low vaccine rate currently (5th now in Europe?) is worrying, if that's all the hedge fund government is offering.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on July 07, 2021, 11:21:42 PM
Got a pack of 5 for 3.95. Con job?
The vast majority of masks are made by unknown Chinese companies, so who knows? I try to buy 'trusted' well-known brands like 3M or Honeywell, in case that helps, but everything is made in China so again who knows. CE marks may help, but might be faked, particularly in a high-demand market as now.

I bought some 3M FFP3 masks which seemed genuine and well made on inspection. I don't wear anything sub-FFP3 anymore since Delta, and indeed avoid crowded places/shops as much as possible anyway. Paranoia > FFP3 ?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 08, 2021, 07:13:37 AM
Back into lockdown then
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on July 08, 2021, 07:22:46 AM
Lot of scientists signing an article in The Lancet opposing the government's plans:

Quote
As the third wave of the pandemic takes hold across England, the UK Government plans to further re-open the nation. Implicit in this decision is the acceptance that infections will surge, but that this does not matter because vaccines have “broken the link between infection and mortality”. On July 19, 2021—branded as Freedom Day—almost all restrictions are set to end. We believe this decision is dangerous and premature.

...

In light of these grave risks, and given that vaccination offers the prospect of quickly reaching the same goal of population immunity without incurring them, we consider any strategy that tolerates high levels of infection to be both unethical and illogical. The UK Government must reconsider its current strategy and take urgent steps to protect the public, including children. We believe the government is embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment, and we call on it to pause plans to abandon mitigations on July 19, 2021.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01589-0/fulltext
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 08, 2021, 07:59:35 AM
Especially Christopher Whitty.

Come on now, this was Johnson's doing. Whitty just meekly stood next to him backing him up despite knowing what was to come. Great lad
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 08, 2021, 08:14:57 AM
Lot of scientists signing an article in The Lancet opposing the government's plans:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01589-0/fulltext

Deepti was on Novara a few days ago. Sadly, dont think this will have traction.

Whitty’s Last Stand
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on July 08, 2021, 08:39:05 AM
Sign the petition. Over 139,000 have so far.

https://www.change.org/p/uk-government-keep-legal-requirement-to-wear-a-face-covering-in-shops-supermarkets-etc-after-july-19th/
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on July 08, 2021, 08:47:38 AM
The WHO aren't mixing their words. The “Moral emptiness and epidemiological stupidity” of the UK's current covid policy

https://twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/1412911843631411203

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: metaltax on July 08, 2021, 09:00:27 AM
You only have to look at the Facebook comments at the bottom of the petition posted above to see what we're going to be up against out and about in a couple of weeks.

The depressing thing is that the Government could do a complete U-turn at this point, admit they got it wrong and keep restrictions until they'd at least double-jabbed everyone, but it's too late. They've given the stamp of approval to no masks and no social distancing so that's what we're going to get, never to return.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 08, 2021, 09:06:19 AM
but Boris said 'data not dates'
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on July 08, 2021, 09:11:20 AM
When will this actually end then. Back of my mind during the January wave, knowing about vaccines, I thought 'end of the summer' but that seems unlikely. We're looking at next spring for real normality aren't we? A two year long haul of a fucker.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 08, 2021, 09:34:51 AM
Not even then I wouldn't have thought.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 08, 2021, 09:41:08 AM
I know people on here hated Avenue 5 but I really enjoyed it, partly because it reflects how stupid so many people in England are. Rewatching a couple of episodes and I really do feel like we are being governed by the Avenue 5 characters. Judd is Johnson, Karen Kelly could be any one of the pundits who cheer on Johnson, Billie McEvoy could be Whitty, Valance and Van Tamm.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on July 08, 2021, 09:46:29 AM
Papers on current modelling for exit from Imperial and Warwick are here (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/imperial-college-london-evaluating-the-roadmap-out-of-lockdown-modelling-step-4-of-the-roadmap-in-the-context-of-b16172-delta-9-june-2021). Only skimmed them but most scenarios show a small exit wave in January.

I can't see there not being local flare-ups beyond that, especially in deprived areas with low vaccine uptake. Newham I think was being quoted as one of the lowest in the country with only 30% having had the first dose, so it's not going to vanish in somewhere like that.

Don't understand the reticence to vaccinate children given that the reports of trials in the US say they have gone well and millions of adults have been done by now further assuring their safety.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 08, 2021, 09:47:52 AM
Petition to keep masks on public transport: https://the.organise.network/campaigns/keep-masks-on-public-transport

46,797 signed so far. Let's get that number up.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on July 08, 2021, 10:04:22 AM
Papers on current modelling for exit from Imperial and Warwick are here (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/imperial-college-london-evaluating-the-roadmap-out-of-lockdown-modelling-step-4-of-the-roadmap-in-the-context-of-b16172-delta-9-june-2021). Only skimmed them but most scenarios show a small exit wave in January.
Quote
. In the most optimistic scenario considered (low immune escape and 150% increased transmissibility, and central R after NPI lifting), an additional 26,854 (95% CrI:11,639, 54,990) deaths could occur by 1 June 2022, with a wave of hospitalisations similar in magnitude to the last wave. In the most pessimistic scenario considered (high immune escape and 170% increased transmissibility), additional deaths could reach 136,377 (95% CrI: 94,307, 189,456). Should transmissibility after Step 4 be higher, there could be up to 203,824 (95% CrI: 179,600, 241,116) additional deaths by 1 June 2022.

..sigh.. they recommend delaying the end of lockdown, even a few weeks makes a significant difference. I think we should have probably stayed in the previous phase of lock down a couple more weeks, we'd be in a much better situation now.

The one side that sort of makes ending lockdown OK is that the main determinant of the third wave size is the level of immunity escape, which is highly uncertain, and not ending lockdown is essentially a "oh fuck" response. At what point do we end lockdown? By the time we've double jabbed everyone there could easily be another variant.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: metaltax on July 08, 2021, 10:16:53 AM
At what point do we end lockdown?

It's a valid question, but it would be nice if they hadn't ended EVERYTHING in one big bang. Face masks and social distancing allow some degree of protection and, more importantly, act as a reminder that we're not out of the woods yet.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on July 08, 2021, 12:09:38 PM
As the government wants to leave Covid behavioural decisions to The People rather than relying on rules and laws, can they do the same with tax, please?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 08, 2021, 12:51:38 PM
They do don't they? Nice tax situation for the ultra rich to employ an accountant to easily circumvent tax liabilities.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 08, 2021, 02:11:22 PM
Has there been anymore talk of booster shots?

If they're needed, sorting that out could be a massive spanner in works couldn't it?

Did anyone hear Gary Neville after the match slam the government? #southgateforpm
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 08, 2021, 04:44:05 PM
Under 100,000 1st doses again today.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Huxleys Babkins on July 08, 2021, 05:29:06 PM
Loads of people at work panic-booking their first jabs now that they can see a route back to foreign travel. All their concerns about mercury and microchips just suddenly vanished. Funny that.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 08, 2021, 05:53:08 PM
They can't track you abroad. Too far away.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 08, 2021, 06:55:01 PM
Papers on current modelling for exit from Imperial and Warwick are here (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/imperial-college-london-evaluating-the-roadmap-out-of-lockdown-modelling-step-4-of-the-roadmap-in-the-context-of-b16172-delta-9-june-2021). Only skimmed them but most scenarios show a small exit wave in January.

I can't see there not being local flare-ups beyond that, especially in deprived areas with low vaccine uptake. Newham I think was being quoted as one of the lowest in the country with only 30% having had the first dose, so it's not going to vanish in somewhere like that.

Don't understand the reticence to vaccinate children given that the reports of trials in the US say they have gone well and millions of adults have been done by now further assuring their safety.

Some child deaths reported with vaccines plus heart problems. 2 in a million though.

Positivity up from 0.39 to 0.69% in a week

Hospitalisations and vents ticking up along similar trajectories with Sept/Oct. caveat - ‘we are in a different world’
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 08, 2021, 06:57:49 PM
Has there been anymore talk of booster shots?

If they're needed, sorting that out could be a massive spanner in works couldn't it?

Did anyone hear Gary Neville after the match slam the government? #southgateforpm

Change.org petition for bank holiday if england win euros
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 08, 2021, 08:35:14 PM
Has there been anymore talk of booster shots?

If they're needed, sorting that out could be a massive spanner in works couldn't it?

I didn't get a flu shot, as I think I've already mentioned, because the only options were cramped little local pharmacies, and I reckoned I'd be better off just staying home and taking my chances. If those same cramped little local pharmacies are going to be where the covid booster shots are administered, and in addition the requirement for masks is gone, I might just stay home and take my chances again.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 08, 2021, 09:37:27 PM
Loads of people at work panic-booking their first jabs now that they can see a route back to foreign travel. All their concerns about mercury and microchips just suddenly vanished. Funny that.

If that's what's required then so be it
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 08, 2021, 09:38:31 PM
Hospital numbers up 831 vs this time last week.

It's happening isn't it?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 08, 2021, 10:10:53 PM
Hospital numbers up 831 vs this time last week.

It's happening isn't it?

Yes from what i see.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: DrGreggles on July 08, 2021, 10:42:12 PM
Looks like the pop quiz will be back though, so it's not all bad news.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on July 08, 2021, 10:57:20 PM
Loads of people at work panic-booking their first jabs now that they can see a route back to foreign travel. All their concerns about mercury and microchips just suddenly vanished. Funny that.

Honestly, it's good the govt are starting to suggest there are actual, tangible benefits to getting the jab for that crowd. For too long the message was "get your jab and then go straight home and stay there because nothing will change" which is dangerously close to an anti-vaxx argument really isn't it. Khan giving away a seat at the Euros final to someone who gets jabbed this week is another great idea. Get them into arms by any means necessary.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on July 08, 2021, 11:04:29 PM
A lottery would help motivate the selfish greedy to get a jab. Whatever works. Do it, Javid. You of all people understand greed and avarice.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 08, 2021, 11:05:48 PM
Anybody who hasn't had the vaccine should be hunted down and have nonce tattooed on their forehead if they don't agree to get it. If they get it after the tattoo then they be allowed to change the n to a b.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on July 09, 2021, 02:45:34 AM
Honestly, it's good the govt are starting to suggest there are actual, tangible benefits to getting the jab for that crowd. For too long the message was "get your jab and then go straight home and stay there because nothing will change" which is dangerously close to an anti-vaxx argument really isn't it. Khan giving away a seat at the Euros final to someone who gets jabbed this week is another great idea. Get them into arms by any means necessary.

Hire them guys that did for the Bulgarian fella.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Harry Badger on July 09, 2021, 09:39:17 AM
I realise this has probably been answered a million times but what is the perecentage needed to be double-jabbed to achieve herd immunity?

And if the numbers vaxxed cap out at significantly below that, despite whatever carrots and sticks the governement offers, what then? Serious question, what happens if there are 20% just refusing for whatver reason?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on July 09, 2021, 09:39:49 AM
I expect we will avert a total NHS crisis and another lockdown but that thousands more people will die needlessly to fatten their libertarian overlords.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 09, 2021, 09:53:31 AM
https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1412182736572399623?s=19

Here's a few models only a few days old. In summary (from what I gathered) potentially significant serious problems if opening goes ahead and small but not discountable chance of catastrophic hospitalisations and loss of life.

75% confidence of 6k-15k deaths in the exit wave and peak hospitalisations between 8k-20k a week.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 09, 2021, 09:54:04 AM

And if the numbers vaxxed cap out at significantly below that, despite whatever carrots and sticks the governement offers, what then? Serious question, what happens if there are 20% just refusing for whatver reason?

We are limping towards 90% of adults being single jabbed. Assume slightly less will get the second.

I think originally it was considered around 70% of the population as the herd immunity point but that is higher with the delta variant. So basically we won't reach it through vaccines unless we jab kids too which they seem resistant to.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Huxleys Babkins on July 09, 2021, 10:00:59 AM
I realise this has probably been answered a million times but what is the perecentage needed to be double-jabbed to achieve herd immunity?

COVID is so easily caught and spread, even by those with antibodies, that herd immunity is basically impossible/irrelevant.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 09, 2021, 10:35:12 AM
From that Twitter thread, it nearly all adults were double vaccinated, why are there so many hosptial cases in his prediction?

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1412184390940102659

Quote
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E5kWMGuXoAIXzLL?format=png&name=900x900)

One other question to explore:  does delaying opening to the start of September, by when nearly all adults will be double-vaccinated, help significantly?  Well in the central case, a little bit, but not a lot (reducing deaths and peak hospitalisations by around 20%).   14/n

Is that vaccinated people getting hospitalised?

Hospital numbers up 831 vs this time last week.

It's happening isn't it?

It's coming home.

Sky News reporter catches Covid interviewing football fans at Wembley (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/presenter-worried-freedom-day-after-24479166)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: metaltax on July 09, 2021, 10:54:31 AM
From that Twitter thread, it nearly all adults were double vaccinated, why are there so many hosptial cases in his prediction?

When you say "nearly all" is that referring to his 90% figure? If so I think it's because 10% of adults not double-jabbed represents something like 5 million people, so still a very large number.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Norton Canes on July 09, 2021, 11:05:32 AM
I see Tyson Fury now has the 'vid. Don't want to wish harm on the lad but if someone like him, famed for his resilience and iron constitution got really ill with it, people might sit up and take notice.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 09, 2021, 11:11:42 AM
Footballers have had the 'rona and that hasn't stopped people being idiots about it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Dusty Substance on July 09, 2021, 11:14:45 AM
Netherlands are considering reversing reopening after their recent relaxations have caused a large spike in infections.

Read that twice as "Neanderthals"
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on July 09, 2021, 11:23:38 AM
Delta variant herd immunity is at around 80-85% of the population. Of the entire population (including under 18s) we're at 51.3% having received two doses.

In theory herd immunity can be lower than the basic R-number derived figure because the population is not homogenous and some people mix more than others, but despite a load of papers last year suggesting this significantly lowered the figure I think the consensus now is that this effect is small.

There's also overshoot to take into account. The herd immunity threshold is the point at which people infect fewer than 1 other person on average so once you've hit the threshold cases still take some time to drop.

A proportion of people who are vaccinated are still getting ill and passing it on, though at reduced levels, so herd immunity may not be possible even if the number vaccinated hits the required percentage so we'll likely keep seeing localised outbreaks.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 09, 2021, 11:30:19 AM
Tim Spector (the Zoe app guy) reckons already 700 people/day are getting long covid - 200 of whom are vaccinated.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 09, 2021, 11:34:40 AM
How can you get stats on people getting Long Covid on a day to day basis? Isn't Long Covid just Covid that still fucks you up months down the line? It's not a specific variant, is it?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 09, 2021, 11:39:01 AM
How can you get stats on people getting Long Covid on a day to day basis? Isn't Long Covid just Covid that still fucks you up months down the line? It's not a specific variant, is it?

It's an estimate of how many people currently getting infected will end up with long covid, based on past data combined with the number of people reporting particular combinations of symptoms on a day to day basis in the app.

Presumably they have some statistical basis for saying that over a quarter of long covid sufferers will have caught covid after being vaccinated, which is the part of it that concerns me the most.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 09, 2021, 11:39:16 AM
I see
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 09, 2021, 11:44:01 AM
The only crumb of comfort at the moment is that the Zoe study seems to indicate that the speed of growth is slowing which may indicate we are approaching a peak in daily infections. The only problem is that we'll then throw some more fuel to the fire by opening more.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 09, 2021, 11:46:23 AM
I think with the Zoe app, people report their symptoms each day and if they keep having symptoms for a certain number of days, it's long covid. Right?

I think in that BBC doc on long covid a few months ago, they said they thought there were 3 main types of long covid they were seeing.

One that that causes general fatigue and there's no test to see if someone has it apart from the symptoms they report, one where organs are damaged and they can see that on scans, blood tests etc, and I can't remember the third!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 09, 2021, 11:46:26 AM
Anybody who hasn't had the vaccine should be hunted down and have nonce tattooed on their forehead if they don't agree to get it. If they get it after the tattoo then they be allowed to change the n to a b.

Bobce?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on July 09, 2021, 12:02:50 PM
Long Covid does seem to conflate several things together. The Zoe app counts any symptoms after 4 weeks as long covid, while what the scary thought is it's going to cause permanent, life time damage.

I really hate the phrase Long Covid. It's so vague as to be almost meaningless, and it makes me want to dismiss all reports of it out of hand even though I know that's not rational.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: katzenjammer on July 09, 2021, 03:06:32 PM
Anecdote alert! A 32 year old friend of mine had covid badly, got over the initial symptoms but in total was off work for six months having chest x rays and various checks for an elevated heart rate. I understand that sounds pretty terrible, it was, but the good news is that he is now fully recovered. I think it’s important to remember that long covid does not mean lifelong covid. That’s all.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: GMTV on July 09, 2021, 03:23:40 PM
I'm more fearful of covid for the long bit, rather than thinking I'd be in trouble with the acute early deathy bit.

About 10 years ago I had a norovirus and ended up with post viral symptoms for about a year afterwards. Had the initial joy of firing bodily fluids out of both ends, but then that stopped and after a day or so felt better. But a week later I could hardly move, more or less bed ridden for a month. Then for around a year every time I exerted myself I'd feel awful afterwards and again almost bed ridden for a few days. I was able to keep working, my work were good with me in that they allowed me a bit of slack at times. But it impacted my life during that time as I stopped most social activities, lost all fitness and became quite unfit, and generally fairly miserable.

Luckily enough went away and I've been fine since. Went to the doctors and had blood tests etc, found nothing and there was quite a lot of scepticism. Pull your socks up there's nothing wrong with you. Certainly not the worst malady to befall someone but it felt bad to me, and it wasn't helped by the general shrugging of shoulders I encountered.

I do get the rolling of the eyes at the terminology of long covid, but I think it's an issue that will impact many people over considerable and varying lengths of time.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 09, 2021, 04:08:48 PM
This might be the doc I mentioned earlier about long covid. It's C4 not BBC:

https://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-truth-about-long-covid-dispatches

Although the Beeb have one too:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000nx44/panorama-has-covid-stolen-my-future

Bit of light relief for the weekend...
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 09, 2021, 04:43:23 PM
England's coronavirus R number has risen to between 1.2 and 1.5. The BBC describe this rise as "slightly". I don't have the R numbers for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, because the BBC decided not to give them.

ONS Infection Survey Findings:

Quote
In England, one in 160 people had the virus - up from one in 260 in the previous week and the highest level since the week to February 19
In Scotland, it was one in 100 people - up from one in 150 and the highest level since the week to January 16
For Wales, it was one in 340 people - up from one in 450 and the highest level since the week to February 27
In Northern Ireland it was one in 300 people - up from one in 670 and the highest since the week to April 3
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on July 09, 2021, 04:55:32 PM
I don't have the R numbers for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, because the BBC decided not to give them.
The four nations of the UK don't all publish updated estimates at the same time covering the same period of data, which complicates things.

They're all in much the same ball park, I believe, just as most of the English regions are all pretty similar. (North West England looks a bit cheerier? Wales also maybe a bit cheerier, but I'm struggling to find an up-to-date estimate to be honest because WG's website is poor.)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 09, 2021, 05:31:19 PM
R number is 1.89 (ONS), with margin around 1.5 - 2.1 from memory
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on July 09, 2021, 05:36:41 PM
Emphatically not what it is being put out on gov.uk
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-value-and-growth-rate#latest-r-and-growth-rate-for-england
( or gov.scot or health-ni.gov.uk for that matter)
in the last few days.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 09, 2021, 05:41:22 PM
Mayor of Johannesburg has just died from Covid at 53.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 09, 2021, 05:51:07 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/09/vaccines-working-as-expected-in-preventing-covid-deaths-say-experts

Quote
Prof Christina Pagel, the director of UCL’s Clinical Operational Research Unit, said: “I don’t think that the deaths [in the latest PHE report] are a sign that something is happening that we’re not expecting. But I think we definitely know that infections are bad because they will inevitably lead to more hospitalisations and deaths, not at the same scale that we had before, but a significant number.”

She predicted the UK would end up “with well over 1,000 hospitalisations a day this summer”.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 09, 2021, 06:15:53 PM
Emphatically not what it is being put out on gov.uk
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-value-and-growth-rate#latest-r-and-growth-rate-for-england
( or gov.scot or health-ni.gov.uk for that matter)
in the last few days.

Curious. Normally the figures are the same as what I see on a Thursday.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 09, 2021, 09:11:40 PM
Anecdote alert! A 32 year old friend of mine had covid badly, got over the initial symptoms but in total was off work for six months having chest x rays and various checks for an elevated heart rate. I understand that sounds pretty terrible, it was, but the good news is that he is now fully recovered. I think it’s important to remember that long covid does not mean lifelong covid. That’s all.

Long covid is not inevitably a lifelong condition. We don't yet know whether or not it is ever a lifelong condition. There's some evidence that a part of it in many cases is ME, which in most cases is a lifelong condition.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 09, 2021, 09:53:03 PM
Its a lifelong condition for those who’ve died from it
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 09, 2021, 09:57:08 PM
Its a lifelong condition for those who’ve died from it

They can still hold out for a cure.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 09, 2021, 11:24:24 PM
with what remaining limbs?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 09, 2021, 11:45:46 PM
Whichever one Sir Captain Sir Tom Sir Moore was using to congratulate England on Twitter the other day.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 10, 2021, 06:42:55 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/09/dread-and-anxiety-among-nhs-staff-as-covid-cases-surge-again
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 10, 2021, 07:30:30 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/09/employers-face-masks-social-distancing-england-covid

They want us to die.

Although fuck knows how that helps the economy.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: katzenjammer on July 10, 2021, 07:47:38 AM
Long covid is not inevitably a lifelong condition. We don't yet know whether or not it is ever a lifelong condition. There's some evidence that a part of it in many cases is ME, which in most cases is a lifelong condition.

I did consider putting ‘inevitably’ in my post, but that somehow made it sound more probable than it might be. All I’m trying to say (badly) to anyone with long lasting covid symptoms is not to lose hope that they won’t eventually go away.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Milo on July 10, 2021, 08:30:44 AM
Its a lifelong condition for those who’ve died from it

The longest covid.

I've been incredibly run down since getting my second jab about two weeks ago. Was Pfizer so no virus component to it so don't suppose it can be a post-viral thing.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Psybro on July 10, 2021, 09:06:40 AM
Wife and I both felt shagged for a fortnight after second AZ but it's really hard to tell if it's just staying indoors and not seeing anyone for the best part of 18 months doing that.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Milo on July 10, 2021, 09:18:00 AM
Aye, there's that and it's not exactly unheard of for me to feel like shit in any given random week anyway. Unless I've had long covid for the past two decades.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 10, 2021, 11:11:08 AM
It's the spike protein that messes you up isn't it? Whether they're from the covid or the vax. It doesn't matter.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Norton Canes on July 10, 2021, 05:44:10 PM
Wife and I both shagged for a fortnight after second AZ but it's really hard to tell if it's just staying indoors and not seeing anyone for the best part of 18 months doing that.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Bernice on July 10, 2021, 09:47:37 PM
Wife and I shagged for a fortnight after second AZ but it's really hard to tell if it's just staying indoors and not seeing anyone for the best part of 18 months doing that.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: vanilla.coffee on July 10, 2021, 10:27:36 PM
Wife and I shagged for a fortnight before second AZ but it's really hard to tell if it's just staying indoors and not seeing anyone for the best part of 18 months doing that.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 10, 2021, 10:28:32 PM
I haven't had sex in months
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 10, 2021, 10:29:33 PM
Years for me. Lockdown was child's play.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 11, 2021, 12:55:27 AM
Same. I’ve even thought of going to swinger clubs because I have a complex about it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: idunnosomename on July 11, 2021, 01:41:22 AM
wish i could have sex
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: chveik on July 11, 2021, 01:43:48 AM
wish i could have sex

go on then
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on July 11, 2021, 07:13:36 AM
Heard some 90yo woman died from two concurrent variants. Not been jabbed, of course, because she was Belgian and they haven't got a clue what they're doing.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 11, 2021, 08:26:13 AM
Heard some 90yo woman died from two concurrent variants. Not been jabbed, of course, because she was Belgian and they haven't got a clue what they're doing.

ONWARD CHRISTIAN SOLDIERS!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: drummersaredeaf on July 12, 2021, 02:41:36 AM
Anyone has this Delta variant? Started with a stuffy nose and sore throat a night or two ago and now my legs are starting to ache. Few hot flushes at times but nothing quite like a fever. Talked myself into thinking I've got it but a couple of lateral flows have been clean. A mate of mine had similar symptoms a few days before and got a negative proper test. Have I caught a summer cold and I'm being a fanny about it or what?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: evilcommiedictator on July 12, 2021, 04:06:37 AM
Delta is like normal, but you keep your sense of smell and taste
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Huxleys Babkins on July 12, 2021, 11:01:11 AM
Friend of mine just had (presumably) the delta. Had a mild headache for five days, whilst her boyfriend was in bed with heavy flu symptoms. Thought it was going to be a right doss. Then it hit her like a train. Flu symptoms just like the boyfriend. Was in bed for another four days after her isolation period had officially ended.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 12, 2021, 01:36:57 PM
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

Who would look at that admissions data after all we've been through and the nature of the previous errors and conclude 'best remove all remaining restrictions'?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 12, 2021, 02:12:32 PM
The ZOE study continues to provide positive signs that we have hit a peak. Hopefully people acting like things are already open means the reopening next week will not have an impact.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 12, 2021, 03:42:33 PM
Javid's just started address the House of Commons on lifting the restrictions.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Harry Badger on July 12, 2021, 03:44:49 PM
Front bench all wearing masks. At the given signal, they'll whip them off a la The Full Monty
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 12, 2021, 04:53:07 PM
Only 42,000 first doses given out yesterday, but I presume that the fact it was a Sunday when England were in the final of the Euros was the main reason for this.

Johnson to give a COVID briefing around 5pm.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 12, 2021, 04:57:25 PM
The ZOE study continues to provide positive signs that we have hit a peak. Hopefully people acting like things are already open means the reopening next week will not have an impact.

Got a link?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 12, 2021, 05:07:59 PM
His hair looks quite neat for a change.

Chris with the slides now.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 12, 2021, 05:41:54 PM
Why ask Johnson about the World Cup bid? He's now giving a long rambling answer to this to reduce the amount of time there is to ask him about COVID.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 12, 2021, 06:24:53 PM
Starmer saying keep masks and keep working from home. I guess difficult to disagree with.

Predictions of 700-1400 deaths a week at the summer peak. Fucking hell.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 12, 2021, 06:26:59 PM
Quote
PM: Moving to personal responsibility on masks

Ben Kentish from LBC asks about people wearing masks.

He asks why, in the middle of a global pandemic, are people being expected to wear coverings rather than told that they must do so.

The PM says we are following the principle of moving towards personal responsibility and thinking about others.

We must exercise extreme caution, he says, as we continue to fight the disease.

People will be expected to wear masks on crowded Tube trains he adds.

ARGH this is so shit.

"They will be expected", but won't be "told". What?!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 12, 2021, 06:31:06 PM
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2021/7/12/09d34db3-78b4-4e7d-ab7f-d5751d847f7d.jpg)

The main thing to focus on is that the admission rate alone (if it reaches a certain level) is sufficient to cripple the NHS and require a further lockdown.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 12, 2021, 06:33:32 PM
Got a link?

You can find the ZOE website here. (https://covid.joinzoe.com/data) I follow the daily analysis on Reddit. Today's is here (https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/oipyn9/120721_zoe_covid19_study_update/) which shows a doubling time for cases of nearly 159 days.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 12, 2021, 06:35:20 PM
The ZOE study continues to provide positive signs that we have hit a peak. Hopefully people acting like things are already open means the reopening next week will not have an impact.

Its the poorest metric though
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 12, 2021, 06:36:40 PM
For example Zoe had Re at 1.1 last week but REACT was 1.89
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 12, 2021, 06:37:15 PM
You can find the ZOE website here. (https://covid.joinzoe.com/data) I follow the daily analysis on Reddit. Today's is here (https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/oipyn9/120721_zoe_covid19_study_update/) which shows a doubling time for cases of nearly 159 days.

Cheers for that
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 12, 2021, 06:37:39 PM
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2021/7/12/09d34db3-78b4-4e7d-ab7f-d5751d847f7d.jpg)

The main thing to focus on is that the admission rate alone (if it reaches a certain level) is sufficient to cripple the NHS and require a further lockdown.

Good to remember this is a new world and like for like comparisons should be approached with caution
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 12, 2021, 06:51:06 PM
Its the poorest metric though

It broadly has gotten the trajectory of the virus right up to now though.

Here is the ZOE chart up to this point:
(https://i.imgur.com/zT7mWPE.jpg)

Here is the government data for cases (this goes back a few months more than the ZOE study):
(https://i.imgur.com/U0p6FpU.jpg)

The levelling off might just be a blip or perhaps might be undone by the lifting of more restrictions, but at least it is a reason not to be utterly in despair of the situation.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 12, 2021, 07:18:42 PM
Not saying its bad, just performs poorly when compared with other data, including wastewater.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on July 12, 2021, 08:28:18 PM
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1414616738231164929?s=21

Quote
Exclusive: Masks Will Be Optional For MPs But *Compulsory* For Parliament Staff From July 19

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/mask-wearing-optional-for-mps-but-compulsory-for-parliament-staff_uk_60ec5e9fe4b0a771e7fbfe12
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: H-O-W-L on July 13, 2021, 02:42:12 AM
I honestly wonder when we're going to take a genuine population hit from this. Surely the world at large has taken a pretty sharp knock to population, especially in developing countries, compared to 2019's "IT'S ALL UP FROM HERE BAY BEE"?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 13, 2021, 11:49:29 AM
I don't think it's that dramatic, Peru is the big outlier. 200,000 deaths in a population of 33 million is 0.6% gone.

Pretty fucking bad. Might even have swung the election not long back.

Clearly had there been no efforts to contain the spread it would have been horrific, but there always would have been. The clear and present danger of the pandemic is infrastructure collapse, above total loss of life, as horrific a thing to say as that seems, because once infrastructure collapses you get knockon effects that are several scales of magnitude more awful.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on July 13, 2021, 12:19:07 PM
So I was going to have 3 people over this weekend. Two of them have been in contact with someone who has now tested positive for Covid. Everyone involved is vaccinated.

I guess this is going to be the norm for a while. Or it should be, I suspect a lot of people won't be bothering with testing and isolating.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 13, 2021, 02:14:13 PM
I don't think it's that dramatic, Peru is the big outlier. 200,000 deaths in a population of 33 million is 0.6% gone.

Pretty fucking bad. Might even have swung the election not long back.

Clearly had there been no efforts to contain the spread it would have been horrific, but there always would have been. The clear and present danger of the pandemic is infrastructure collapse, above total loss of life, as horrific a thing to say as that seems, because once infrastructure collapses you get knockon effects that are several scales of magnitude more awful.

Basically 25% of people > 65
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 13, 2021, 04:06:37 PM
50 deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported today.

Rate per 100,000 people now 0.3

Another low number of 1st doses given yesterday, 54,296.

Javid won't U-turn on requiring masks on public transport and in shops though. Can't upset the Tory backbenches.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 13, 2021, 04:11:38 PM
Alpha had dey time
Delta havin dey time

Who next got dey time?

Amma say Lamder
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on July 13, 2021, 04:19:18 PM
Nice bring back, love it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JesusAndYourBush on July 13, 2021, 04:36:30 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/yn0jH8r.jpg)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on July 13, 2021, 04:59:38 PM
I can understand opening things up.  Covid is here for good and life has to go on sometime.  Not requiring masks in shops and on public transport, nor requiring covid passes for nightclubs, is fucking mental though.  These are easy things we can do while continuing to life a normal and fully-opened life!

The govt's new "Expects and Recommends" catchphrase has so far resulted in all public transport bodies saying they won't be requiring masks.  Surprised Pikachu face
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 13, 2021, 05:48:21 PM
Alpha had dey time
Delta havin dey time

Who next got dey time?

Amma say Lamder

I said that today as delta impact in ww looks like its waning. Could be dodgy data though as its fresh out of lab
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 13, 2021, 05:49:24 PM
I can understand opening things up.  Covid is here for good and life has to go on sometime.  Not requiring masks in shops and on public transport, nor requiring covid passes for nightclubs, is fucking mental though.  These are easy things we can do while continuing to life a normal and fully-opened life!

The govt's new "Expects and Recommends" catchphrase has so far resulted in all public transport bodies saying they won't be requiring masks.  Surprised Pikachu face

If it was highly transmissible ebola would you have the same opinion?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 13, 2021, 05:51:40 PM
If it was highly transmissible ebola would you have the same opinion?

OPEN THE LAVS
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on July 13, 2021, 06:00:02 PM
If it was highly transmissible ebola would you have the same opinion?

Aye

Too many people on the planet, need more graves!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 13, 2021, 06:02:50 PM
Aye

Too many people on the planet, need more graves!

So not:

Too many people on the planet, consume less.

Just get em killed.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bakabaka on July 13, 2021, 06:55:15 PM
Rate per 100,000 people now 0.3
That's 0.3%, or 300 per 100,000.

Officially it's 277, according to the government, though round here it's 564. Which is loads better than last week when we had over 1,000 per 100,000 in my little student-filled neighbourhood.

Edited to put in percentage and hopefully sound less cunty.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: flotemysost on July 13, 2021, 09:10:38 PM
Was planning on seeing my mum in person soon, for the first time in about 18 months. I was gonna get a test and lie low for a couple of days beforehand (she's double vaxxed, as I will be by the time I go, but I still don't wanna fuck about as she and my dad are both over 70 and have had a few health issues recently) - but I don't drive, and if no cunt's gonna be wearing a mask on the train then I might fork out for a taxi.

It won't be cheap and I'm privileged enough to be able to afford it, but it's just an example of a situation where many people would have been forced to compromise their own psychological comfort, as well as their and others' physical safety of course, if they had no option other than public transport (obviously that's to say nothing of anyone who has no choice other than public transport for work etc. etc.). Sheer contempt. Absolute cunts.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: peanutbutter on July 13, 2021, 10:37:56 PM
Would the numbers be drastically better right now if it wasn't such a miserable damp summer weather wise? Like, were we super lucky that a big chunk of last summer was scorching?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: The Culture Bunker on July 13, 2021, 10:39:03 PM
Was planning on seeing my mum in person soon, for the first time in about 18 months. I was gonna get a test and lie low for a couple of days beforehand (she's double vaxxed, as I will be by the time I go, but I still don't wanna fuck about as she and my dad are both over 70 and have had a few health issues recently) - but I don't drive, and if no cunt's gonna be wearing a mask on the train then I might fork out for a taxi.
A few weeks ago I took a train from Manchester up North to visit my own parents (we're all double vaxxed and in general good health). I did wear a mask, but I'd say about 30/40% of others on the (very crowded up to Preston) train weren't. The extent of enforcement was an announcement asking people to mask up, but when the conductor went checking tickets he didn't chance any follow up.

They've pretty much given up on patrols checking for mask wearing on the Metro here too. It's one thing going into work at 7.10am when it's not so busy, very different for the trip home and presumably more so starting next week.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 14, 2021, 07:22:22 AM
Would the numbers be drastically better right now if it wasn't such a miserable damp summer weather wise? Like, were we super lucky that a big chunk of last summer was scorching?

I dont think so.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 14, 2021, 07:52:05 AM
Quote
Masks debate is particularly obvious in Westminster. Staff manning coffee shops are fully masked while the libertarian Tories march around with their faces uncovered, bristling whenever officials remind them of the very guidelines the govt put into law.

Quote
Minister on why masks were scrapped: “Colleagues have reached the end of their tether with restrictions. We couldn’t have got [restrictions] through on Tory votes and there’s no way we could have passed with Labour. It would have been the end of Boris.”

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1415017181348253698
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 14, 2021, 07:59:06 AM
Burn it all down. Our fault of course, we didnt burn it down with Guy Fawkes and we have failed to burn it down ever since
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: ASFTSN on July 14, 2021, 09:21:21 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-57826331 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-57826331)

Masks still compulsory on London transport. Khan actually doing something. Kind of. I'd say it's only around 60-70% of people I see actually wearing masks in London so it's clearly not enforced and this won't be either, obviously. Still at least the messaging's there.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on July 14, 2021, 10:01:11 AM
The tube stations all have posters up with how many people were ejected from the system or fined in the previous period for not wearing masks, while about one journey in ten I've seen British Transport Police doing enforcement on the tube or Overground. Have seen it said though that enforcement will be more complicated when wearing a mask is a condition of carriage rather than a law.

Given that polls show a majority of people are more comfortable travelling when people are wearing masks it seems daft to jeopardise getting people using public transport. They seem to keep doing that, like with not extending railcards even though people have been unable to make use of them for long lockdown periods and introducing those rather rubbish part-time season tickets.

The mayor's powers are pretty limited and since the bail-out of TfL a lot more control has gone to central government so he has even less power now.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 14, 2021, 10:14:52 AM
I wonder if they'll use this as an excuse to cut railway services in consistencies outside London that are safe Labour/Lib Dem seats.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 14, 2021, 10:43:26 AM
Quote
Netherlands sees 500% rise in cases after scrapping all restrictions
There’s news out of the Netherlands this morning that some are calling a worrying sign of what may be in store for England once restrictions are dropped. Sky News report that:

The Netherlands has seen a huge surge in cases after it scrapped nearly all remaining restrictions and reopened nightclubs in late June. Nightclubs have been closed again until at least 13 August and bars will have to shut at midnight.

Nearly 52,000 people in the Netherlands tested positive for Covid-19 over the past week – increasing by more than 500%. Officials said that of the infections that could be tracked to their source, 37% happened in a hospitality venue such as a bar or club.

One positive sign though is that hospital admissions in the Netherlands have risen only by 11%, which equates to just 60 patients. Nevertheless it does suggest that the see-saw between reopening and restrictions may continue across Europe for some time to come.

Similar rates of vaccination as us too.

This is going to be brilliant!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 14, 2021, 11:03:54 AM
Would the numbers be drastically better right now if it wasn't such a miserable damp summer weather wise? Like, were we super lucky that a big chunk of last summer was scorching?

It seems as though the delay in cases climbing last year was due to timing. The infection rate got nearly wiped with a relatively strict lockdown and because the virus wasn't as infectious as this variant. The good weather helped people be outdoors more and for buildings to be better ventilated. There was also a lot more fear and reticence to venture back out until August with Sunak's Eat Out To Fuck Down. Possibly a degree of immunity from so many people getting it in March 2020.

Vitamin D levels (within the normal band we get in the UK) don't appear to be a crucial variable, even less now if it is one due to Delta's infectiousness.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 14, 2021, 11:40:56 AM
https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1414961672616357894?s=19

Some more on hospitalisations
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 14, 2021, 01:32:01 PM
Johnson sinks to new low:

Quote
Labour's Peter Kyle calls on the PM to roll out Covid vaccination for teenagers over the summer, if the idea is signed off as safe by the JCVI, the UK's expert vaccination committee.

He says 800,000 students are currently self-isolating and even with changes to the rules, the autumn term could be "very severely affected" by disruption.

Boris Johnson doesn't answer the question, instead saying the JCVI's advice is a matter for them and accusing Mr Kyle of wanting to "go against" its suggestions.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 14, 2021, 04:28:32 PM
Transport disruption too and from Cowes

Quote
Ferry passengers are facing disruption due to staff shortages on a cross-Solent ferry.

Red Funnel said it had been forced to cancel vehicle ferry sailings because 30% of staff were unable to work.

The ferry firm said many staff were having to isolate because they had been pinged by the NHS app or had come into close contact with someone with Covid.

Six sailings have been cancelled each way between Southampton and East Cowes on Wednesday and Thursday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-57833248
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 14, 2021, 04:50:51 PM
Quote
UK figures for 14 July 2021: 42,302 new cases | 49 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test

Although the update is delayed due to a processing issue, they've added the above in the yellow bit on the government website.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on July 14, 2021, 04:53:05 PM
Lot of cases.  Wonder if we'll see 60k by freedom day...

Death number not to pretty either.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 14, 2021, 06:10:02 PM
So much for the plateauing, though I guess we will find out more this week.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 14, 2021, 07:09:15 PM
Hospitalisations up 1165 vs same time last week so that rate of growth is picking up too.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Old Thrashbarg on July 14, 2021, 07:16:47 PM
I don't think there's been any suggestion that cases are plateauing, more that the growth rate of cases might be starting to plateau. i.e. cases viewed on a log scale are starting to flatten.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6RZ-gcXEAUkDnJ?format=png&name=small)

But it's still probably too early to say for certain.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 14, 2021, 07:36:57 PM
Transport disruption too and from Cowes

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-57833248

Gonna be choppes
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 14, 2021, 07:37:59 PM
I don't think there's been any suggestion that cases are plateauing, more that the growth rate of cases might be starting to plateau. i.e. cases viewed on a log scale are starting to flatten.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6RZ-gcXEAUkDnJ?format=png&name=small)

But it's still probably too early to say for certain.

We've seen it tailing quite dramatically - in fact I'll probably know by 4pm tomorrow if this an anomaly or trend.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on July 14, 2021, 09:02:18 PM
It's been level on ZOE for a week, which usually predicts official figures by a week or so, but it's never a guarantee and did go up again today.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: drummersaredeaf on July 14, 2021, 09:22:06 PM
Based on ZOE, my area is absolutely riddled. Around 29k/million. Even the North East which was on the news earlier was under 20.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: flotemysost on July 14, 2021, 10:59:15 PM
Gonna be choppes

Big LOL at this.

Big cry at everything else in this thread :(
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: non capisco on July 15, 2021, 12:13:34 AM
Based on ZOE, my area is absolutely riddled. Around 29k/million. Even the North East which was on the news earlier was under 20.

Seems like only yesterday I was enjoying registering on the ZOE app in the morning and watching cases drop daily into the low double figures. That was the sort of landscape it seemed faintly reasonable to start dropping restrictions in, not like now when I look on the ZOE app and wonder if there's anyone in Bromley that isn't crawling with Delta.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 15, 2021, 09:37:36 AM
I don't think there's been any suggestion that cases are plateauing, more that the growth rate of cases might be starting to plateau. i.e. cases viewed on a log scale are starting to flatten.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6RZ-gcXEAUkDnJ?format=png&name=small)

But it's still probably too early to say for certain.

Sorry plateauing of growth rate is what I meant, should have been specific.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 15, 2021, 10:11:35 AM
Given that polls show a majority of people are more comfortable travelling when people are wearing masks it seems daft to jeopardise getting people using public transport.

I guess people will get used to people not wearing masks as quickly as they got used to people wearing them.

Remember the outcry at the beginning of restrictions "us plucky Brits will never follow restrictions (lockdowns, masks, etc), Blitz spirit etc". But pretty much everyone did and was happy to do so for nearly 1.5 years.

I think it will switch back to normal as quickly as it switched to not-normal.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 15, 2021, 10:20:24 AM
I'd say a large minority have refused to obey COVID rules during the pandemic. A lot of people used Cummings, Ferguson and Hancock breaking the rules as a way of making themselves feel less guilty about doing the same.

There has been a very vocal COVID denier/anti-vax movement with support from people in the establishment. I've encountered several people who clearly don't care about COVID. Social distancing outside has pretty much disappeared.

I really don't think you can say that "pretty much everyone did and was happy to do so for nearly 1.5 years". Plenty of people have broken the rules on occasion and some people have ignored them throughout the pandemic. This suits the government who have supported "letting it rip" throughout the pandemic and only locked down when it was clear that the alternative would be total societal collapse.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: metaltax on July 15, 2021, 11:18:38 AM
I think it will switch back to normal as quickly as it switched to not-normal.

I think it'll seem like it's switched back to normal very quickly because suddenly a large number of people will act like it's 2019. Then quite soon after that we'll see the knock-on effect of that behaviour and we'll be back to restrictions in a situation that could have so easily been avoided.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 15, 2021, 11:38:39 AM
I thought all the studies said that most people followed the rules most of the time, and it was generally considered high compliance with the rules?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 15, 2021, 11:43:25 AM
I imagine a lot of people who have broken COVID regulations (e.g. not wearing a mask on the bus but able to wear one, having a party indoors during March) wouldn't feel comfortable admitting to it to a stranger. I don't know how these studies were carried out but if it's just asking people some are going to lie.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 15, 2021, 11:49:18 AM
Quote
The high number of people being sent alerts by the NHS Test and Trace app has hit production at Nissan's Sunderland car plant after hundreds of staff were told to isolate.

It is understood that some 700 workers have been sent home from the plant, about 10% of the total workforce.

Aren't businesses going to be a bit worried about how lifting restrictions will affect them if more and more workers have to isolate? I know most businesses don't care about their workers but it will hit productivity at places like Nissan where many staff can't work from home.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 15, 2021, 01:45:06 PM
I guess they're hoping they can wait it out until the gov turns down the sensitivity on the app or encourages people to stop using it all together.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 15, 2021, 05:09:08 PM
Up 16k on last week
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 15, 2021, 05:24:04 PM
63 deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

Meanwhile the rate of 1st doses continues to be very slow. How do we reach that remaining 12.5% of adults? Unless they are concentrating on second doses at the moment.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Old Thrashbarg on July 15, 2021, 06:00:47 PM
I think first doses are likely to remain low for another couple of weeks at least. Firstly, the pool of people available for a first dose is decreasing, with them not opening up to any younger age groups currently. Secondly, those under 40 aren't being offered the AstraZeneca vaccine, reducing the available vaccinations for those still needing a first dose. And thirdly, the amount of Pfizer doses available isn't much more than the amount needed to fulfil the necessary second doses for those who have already have a first dose of Pfizer. So until the next delivery in August (I believe) it probably won't be given out as a first dose for many people, further reducing the available vaccinations.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Milo on July 15, 2021, 08:39:13 PM
Have we got a new variant in the north-east? I've seen whispers of it and curiously low sequencing activity there but don't know if it's sequencing not being reported or a mundane reason for less sequencing.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on July 15, 2021, 08:53:07 PM
It would seem that ZOE is a load of bollocks again.  Which is a shame as it's by and large tracked the pandemic very well but it has these moments (generally before someone there goes "aha!" and finds out what's fucking up the algorithm) when it's just not matching up with reality at all, and floating around 30-32k over the past couple of weeks does not match up with the reality of it doing a rocket impression.

The only theory I have "in its favour" is that when the virus finds a pocket to infect, such as a school, potentially it's huge and the actual tested numbers are huge, whilst the overall ZOE study remains a proportional one relying on the same small handful of people reporting in each area.  Plus, those reporting are unlikely to be kids, who have better things to do than mess with that covid app that dad uses.  They try to account for things like that, but it may not be enough if there's a huge outbreak.


On the more amusing side:
(https://i.imgur.com/HVQnCON.jpg)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 15, 2021, 09:05:06 PM
Have we got a new variant in the north-east? I've seen whispers of it and curiously low sequencing activity there but don't know if it's sequencing not being reported or a mundane reason for less sequencing.

Not that we can tell. Delta has been picked in every wastewater sample location we monitor (~70% of population of England) as of today. Sequencing is about 45% in clinical (due to low prevalence - there is a lag period for results to come back).
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Milo on July 15, 2021, 09:08:35 PM
Thanks, blodwyn.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 16, 2021, 08:38:21 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57858864

Whitty hinting that we are  a month and a half away from hospitalisation fuckdown.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: EOLAN on July 16, 2021, 10:34:13 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57858864

Whitty hinting that we are  a month and a half away from hospitalisation fuckdown.

Don't worry - your new Health Secretary spent his first day rigorously crunching the data. So I am sure he is well able for any potential outcome. All we need is certainty and inevitability.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on July 16, 2021, 10:37:59 AM
My partner tried to contact their Occupational Health department at a major London (England) acute hospital trust yesterday.

Phone system unable to add them to the queue, because it was already too long.

Email address gave them an automated response asking them to not try contacting again for another 48 hours.

Hope that IP&C has a bit more capacity…
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: katzenjammer on July 16, 2021, 11:04:47 AM
On the more amusing side:
(https://i.imgur.com/HVQnCON.jpg)
Good job they circled that
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 16, 2021, 11:48:27 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57858864

Whitty hinting that we are  a month and a half away from hospitalisation fuckdown.

Based on ferguson model i mentioned up thread
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on July 16, 2021, 12:52:48 PM
Meanwhile it's extremely clear that particular regions' acute services are already fucked.

But who gives a shit about Manchester and Liverpool, so long as there are beds in the tidier parts of London?

Edit: Birmingham also gone.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 16, 2021, 12:54:46 PM
Quote
Boris Johnson’s plan to lift virtually all of England’s pandemic restrictions on Monday is a threat to the world and provides fertile ground for the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants, international experts say.

At an emergency summit on Friday government advisers in New Zealand, Israel and Italy sounded alarm bells about Downing Street’s policy, while more than 1,200 scientists backed a letter to the Lancet journal warning that the strategy could allow vaccine-resistant variants to develop.

The letter said: “We believe the government is embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment, and we call on it to pause plans to abandon mitigations on July 19, 2021.”...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 16, 2021, 01:31:26 PM
Meddlesome scientists!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: thelittlemango on July 16, 2021, 02:24:16 PM
Reading that kind of thing makes me want to stamp my feet like a frustrated toddler and curse that I live on this island.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Bernice on July 16, 2021, 02:31:32 PM
Fucking hell. Makes you proud. Nice one Britain, called out by the world.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: GMTV on July 16, 2021, 02:33:01 PM
Fucking hell. Makes you proud. Nice one Britain, called out by the world.

Not the whole world, only 1200 international expert scientists
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: metaltax on July 16, 2021, 02:37:48 PM
Quote
We believe the government is embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment

They'll be laughing on the other side of their faces when they see the utopia that Britain has become once The Purge burns itself out.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 16, 2021, 03:26:50 PM
Quote
Health bosses in Sunderland have asked staff to postpone holidays as the local trust is "under extreme pressure" due to a surge in coronavirus cases.

Staff at South Tyneside and Sunderland NHS Foundation Trust, an area which has one of the highest infection rates in the country, are seeing hospital cases double week-on-week.

Bosses told staff earlier this week there were 80 patients receiving treatment - while there were just two exactly a month previously.

In the internal memo, they asked for staff to work additional shifts, with a £250 bonus for staff who could work an extra week of overtime spread over the next six weeks...

I expect we'll be encouraged to start clapping for the NHS once a week again so the government can disguise just how overworked and at risk NHS staff are.

Quote
In the UK overall, the ONS's random weekly testing helps it suggest that 650,000 people in private households in the UK had Covid in the week to 10 July, up from 400,000 people the previous week.

This is 1% of the population – or one in 100 people.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 16, 2021, 03:27:18 PM
Fucking hell. Makes you proud. Nice one Britain, called out by the world.

Maybe there should be T-shirts that people can buy with Boris Johnson's stupid face on saying "Not My Prime Minister" like you could buy for George W Bush with "Not My President. Never felt so embarrassed to be English.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 16, 2021, 03:35:44 PM
Also, nightclubs are confused as to what they should be doing to keep people COVID-safe

Quote
...Government guidance has been scarce with clubs encouraged to clean, improve air flow in poorly ventilated areas while staff who are unwell are advised to stay at home.

An update late on Wednesday encourages use of the NHS contact app but it will not be a legal requirement, and the same goes for showing proof of being vaccinated – with four in five clubs saying they will not ask for verification. The biggest nightclub chains – including Rekom UK – have said they will not ask for vaccine passports either.

The Fabric co-founder Cameron Leslie described the staggered government guidance for nightclubs as being like “someone throwing a hand grenade into a room and shutting the door”. The club will reopen on the weekend of 23 July and clubbers will not be asked to present their vaccination passports.

He says: “It’s complicated to put the new guidance into practice and communicate that effectively to our audience. Suddenly now we’ve got a whole layer of additional measures that we need to adapt to.”...

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2021/jul/16/nightclubs-confusion-uk-covid-rules-freedom-day
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 16, 2021, 04:08:28 PM
If you’re going to a nightclub, you are not covid safe and there is basically no way to make that happen.

They might as well mandate drawing healing symbols on your hands with biro for all the good it will do.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 16, 2021, 04:21:40 PM
51,870 reported cases today
49 deaths within 28 days of a positive test
717 patients admitted with COVID to hospitals today

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 16, 2021, 04:46:29 PM
Rate of hospitalisations rising. This isn't going to be pretty in 4 weeks time.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on July 16, 2021, 04:58:53 PM
It's pretty ugly already if you're one of the hundreds if not thousands of people in the North West of England or West Midlands having already delayed interventions cancelled again at short notice.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 16, 2021, 04:59:13 PM
If I was in the nightclub business I'd get into a different business because it's NEVER COMING BACK
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on July 16, 2021, 05:28:41 PM
Boris is committing the peacetime equivalent of a war crime by lifting Covid restrictions on Monday, that will make any Wuhan lab leak (if that ever happened of course) look like bat's piss. The acceleration of death and misery that will result is entirely avoidable.

Vaccine-immune Covid- what a gift to the world that would be :-(

Not only is Boris incompetent, but he should be prosecuted for this.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 16, 2021, 06:41:10 PM
Apparently the thinking behind the divergence in the ZOE figures has to do with the demographics of ZOE users. ZOE users are significantly more likely to be vaccinated. So whilst the ZOE figures have been bang on throughout the pandemic, they now don't really represent the full population due to skewing towards the fully vaccinated proportion of the population.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuntbeaks on July 16, 2021, 07:03:47 PM
God bless Are Brave Boris, he has sacrificed so much for this majestic island. He is giving us are freedom back on Monday like Churchill wood have done.

Freedoms Coming Home, thank you Boris.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 16, 2021, 07:27:46 PM
Michael Walker is a fucking nob
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Bernice on July 16, 2021, 08:02:39 PM
No u
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 16, 2021, 08:56:41 PM
Apparently the thinking behind the divergence in the ZOE figures has to do with the demographics of ZOE users. ZOE users are significantly more likely to be vaccinated. So whilst the ZOE figures have been bang on throughout the pandemic, they now don't really represent the full population due to skewing towards the fully vaccinated proportion of the population.

I assumed it was because ZOE only counts symptomatic cases, and as more people are vaccinated the proportion of asymptomatic cases increases.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 16, 2021, 09:02:52 PM
No u

OPEN UP THE NIGHTCLUBS
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on July 17, 2021, 01:19:19 AM
Vaccine-immune Covid- what a gift to the world that would be :-(,

It's 1 o'clock Saturday, but I don't see how easing restrictions now really affects the likelihood of vaccine-immunity developing.

It's not simple. Relaxing restrictions now means the peak will be higher but narrower. Does that make vaccine escape more likely?

And it's not a good reason, but it's not like the US are going to lockdown again. Or that most of Africa can lockdown effectively. Some amount of vaccine escape is inevitable.

I say this as someone who thinks the May relaxations should have been delayed.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on July 17, 2021, 01:41:51 AM
Fortunately a completely vaccine-avoiding variant is unlikely.. it's something about it can only mutate so much before it makes itself useless through the binding receptors not working.  But we could still end up gifting the world with a more refined covid that makes it ever harder for everyone, which is just lovely...

Apparently the thinking behind the divergence in the ZOE figures has to do with the demographics of ZOE users. ZOE users are significantly more likely to be vaccinated. So whilst the ZOE figures have been bang on throughout the pandemic, they now don't really represent the full population due to skewing towards the fully vaccinated proportion of the population.

That would make sense.  So it's levelling off in the vaccinated, which is something...

They need to be tweaking the algorithm.  They always seem a bit late to it, but I suppose they need to be sure what they're doing before changing things.

Good job they circled that

Hahaha

There's a Reddit for that: https://www.reddit.com/r/uselessredcircle/
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 17, 2021, 09:15:34 AM
It's 1 o'clock Saturday, but I don't see how easing restrictions now really affects the likelihood of vaccine-immunity developing.

It's not simple. Relaxing restrictions now means the peak will be higher but narrower. Does that make vaccine escape more likely?

And it's not a good reason, but it's not like the US are going to lockdown again. Or that most of Africa can lockdown effectively. Some amount of vaccine escape is inevitable.

I say this as someone who thinks the May relaxations should have been delayed.

The more exposure to the virus = the more likelihood a vaccinated person will get the virus.

This is why it is important that as many people as possible get the vaccine. And why people who can get it but don't should be looked on as the scum of the earth.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on July 17, 2021, 09:29:05 AM
I don't see how easing restrictions now really affects the likelihood of vaccine-immunity developing.


Anything that contributes to more people catching the virus and spreading it also contributes to the likelihood of a variant evolving. Doing so against a partially vaccinated population increases that likelihood again.


Fortunately a completely vaccine-avoiding variant is unlikely..

I don't think complete vaccine evasion is the worry though. A variant that was say 50% vaccine evadable is enough to cause serious problems. A variant evolving out of the current situation which was a mix of the attributes of the beta and delta variants would mean big trouble for the world right now.

From todays Guardian

Quote
The Beta variant of the coronavirus spreading in France may evade vaccines, a scientist involved in advising the government has warned.

The government has said travellers returning from France – unlike other amber list destinations – must continue to self-isolate even if they are fully vaccinated.

Professor John Edmunds, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said ministers were right to be concerned, PA news reports.

He told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme:

The Beta variant has remained a threat throughout. It is probably less infectious than the Delta variant that is spreading here in the UK at the moment. Where it has an advantage is that it is able to escape the immune response to a better extent.

As the population here becomes more and more immune, the conditions are right then for the Beta variant to get an advantage, so I can understand the concern.

Of the variants that are out there and are known about, that one has always been a threat to us. There is some good evidence from South Africa that it can evade the immune response generated by the AstraZeneca vaccine more efficiently.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on July 17, 2021, 09:32:16 AM
The more exposure to the virus = the more likelihood a vaccinated person will get the virus.

But locking down doesn't reduce the total number of people exposed. It just spreads it out over a longer period of time

I mean, I don't know either way, but people seem to be assuming relaxing lockdown will increase the chance of variants of concern without any basis. I think it's a pretty complex question to answer.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 17, 2021, 10:48:24 AM
I can't wait for all the 'FREEDOM DAY' bullshit on Monday. Ugh.

My GP surgery is still insisting on masks, but that's it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 17, 2021, 12:12:59 PM
But locking down doesn't reduce the total number of people exposed. It just spreads it out over a longer period of time

It does reduce the number of people exposed, since it gives time for more people to be vaccinated, which means fewer people catching and spreading the virus, which means fewer people being exposed to it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on July 17, 2021, 12:43:01 PM
I'm not convinced that any difference in the number of people exposed caused by more people being vaccinated is significant. The vaccines are much better at preventing symptoms rather than infection. Also we're talking about the difference England's actions can have on the development of variants when you've got to think about the whole world.

Unlocking might be a mistake, but more likely because it leads to the NHS being overwhelmed than because it leads to a new variant evolving when there are 6 billion odd people for that to happen in.

Do we know what's going on with the remaining un-vaxed? Are they anti-vaxxers or what.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 17, 2021, 01:49:42 PM
I'm not convinced that any difference in the number of people exposed caused by more people being vaccinated is significant. The vaccines are much better at preventing symptoms rather than infection.

They reduce the viral load, which means even if you do get infected you're less infectious than if you were unvaccinated. I don't know the exact figures offhand, but it does make a significant difference.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on July 17, 2021, 04:38:42 PM

Unlocking might be a mistake, but more likely because it leads to the NHS being overwhelmed than because it leads to a new variant evolving when there are 6 billion odd people for that to happen in.



Worth remembering though that the alpha variant, what used to be known as the Kent variant, which caused all the trouble earlier this year until delta took over, was so called because it emerged in.... wait for it....Kent. 

There are virologists concerned that a new variant already might be emerging in the North East of England. It just hasn't been sequenced yet. Cases there are abnormally high.

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1416040863222878213

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: stonkers on July 17, 2021, 04:42:41 PM
They reduce the viral load, which means even if you do get infected you're less infectious than if you were unvaccinated. I don't know the exact figures offhand, but it does make a significant difference.

Yeah but AIUI the reasoning is that even with the vaccines reducing transmission there's decent odds everyone's eventually going to get it, same as you're going to get a common cold coronavirus sooner or later.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Head Gardener on July 17, 2021, 04:43:00 PM
Freedom Day my Birthday more like
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 17, 2021, 04:54:57 PM
The Metropolitan Line and parts of the Picadilly and District Line have been suspended until 9pm due to control room staff having to isolate. Which also means more people on fewer trains. The BBC claims the staff received isolation alerts via the app.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 17, 2021, 06:44:41 PM
Freedom Day my Birthday more like

A very happy birthday HG.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 17, 2021, 09:40:03 PM
Happy birthday nice to know that your birthday will appear in the annals of history written by whoever survives as the day human civilization began its collapse, like in terminator how they all remember the date skynet was turned on or whatever
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Alberon on July 17, 2021, 10:01:29 PM
Happy birthday nice to know that your birthday will appear in the annals of history written by whoever survives as the day human civilization began its collapse, like in terminator how they all remember the date skynet was turned on or whatever

Which, funnily enough, is my birthday.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: peanutbutter on July 17, 2021, 11:04:50 PM
Went on a big massive walk today and was kinda surprised to find hubs with lotsa bars seemed to be drastically more crowded than the various parks I went through. Parks weren't really that different to summer last year from what I saw asides from the occasional large gathering.

Passed by Camden and it seemed absolutely stuffed in particular
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Bernice on July 17, 2021, 11:05:26 PM
Happy birthday nice to know that your birthday will appear in the annals of history written by whoever survives as the day human civilization began its collapse, like in terminator how they all remember the date skynet was turned on or whatever

Terminator 2: The date skynet was turned on or whatever
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 18, 2021, 10:08:50 AM
Johnson and Sunak not isolating despite having been in close contact with Javid, sending a clear message that isolating after being in contact with an infected person is optional now.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 18, 2021, 10:13:49 AM
A more classic case of British exceptionalism and elitism you couldn't find.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Rich Uncle Skeleton on July 18, 2021, 10:32:19 AM
Fucked.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: metaltax on July 18, 2021, 10:57:35 AM
U-turn on the not-isolating.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: The Mollusk on July 18, 2021, 10:58:51 AM
Passed by Camden and it seemed absolutely stuffed in particular

Camden is a cesspool of stupid fucking cunts.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: SpiderChrist on July 18, 2021, 11:17:11 AM
Had to pop to Sainsburys this morning - absolutely fucking rammed, spotted a few folks without masks and nobody making any attempt at social distancing. Fucking hell. Feels like we're on the verge of something spectacularly nasty.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: flotemysost on July 18, 2021, 11:21:59 AM
Had to pop to Sainsburys this morning - absolutely fucking rammed, spotted a few folks without masks and nobody making any attempt at social distancing. Fucking hell. Feels like we're on the verge of something spectacularly nasty.

Feels like it's been that way for ages, same on TfL transport, except as of tomorrow when I glare at people and move away from them apparently I'm the cunt
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 18, 2021, 12:04:36 PM
At least masks are mandatory in Gp practices and hospitals, thankfully.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: The Mollusk on July 18, 2021, 02:57:37 PM
Had an email from Transport for London the other day saying they will be keeping the rule of compulsory mask wearing on trains and buses and will exercise the right to ask people without masks who aren't exempt to leave the stations or services. Fuckin as if that's ever going to happen or has ever happened so far. They don't have the authority and police/government don't give a fuck.

I travel to multiple destinations per day on the London transport network and already over the last month or two I've seen an increase of about 20% more people going maskless. Fucking dreading my commute tomorrow, really glad I was able to bump my second jab appointment from August 19th to July 29th but it's a minor consolation.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: flotemysost on July 18, 2021, 04:15:50 PM
There are lots of places offering walk-ins in London, likewise I've moved my second jab forward by a month (26th for me) but I still might see if I can squeeze in before then, given the way things are headed.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: The Culture Bunker on July 18, 2021, 05:58:17 PM
Manchester Metro have had to reduce services due to (Covid related) staff shortages, and have reduced capacity on my nearest line from four carriages to mainly two. Was out for a walk yesterday, and a passing tram was completely rammed, looked like plenty not wearing masks.

Email to all staff on Friday was gleefully banging on about the return to the office at least one day a week for all staff.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 18, 2021, 06:11:32 PM
I did hope that the Metropolitan Line having to close yesterday might have made Johnson a little worried given how most of the stations in his consistency are Metropolitan Line, meaning many of his constituents would have had a taste of how infrastructure might face issues if cases continue to rise. Clearly not.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: SpiderChrist on July 18, 2021, 07:32:49 PM
A friend's son has tested positive. A classmate at his school went home early during the week cos he felt unwell. Turns out this classmate went to the Euro2020 semi-final and the final with his parents, both of whom subsequently got Covid but continued to send their son to school like a pair of cunting arseholes.

Let's face it - relying on people to do the right thing in a country that has positively encouraged selfish individualism for the past 42 years is never going to work - and the cunts in charge know this full well.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 18, 2021, 09:20:48 PM
Exactly. This 'masks are optional, use your common sense' thing is not going to work and they know it, because of the amount of people going 'BUT MUH FREEDOMZ' or acting like wearing a mask is like wearing a yellow star in Nazi Germany. That way they can say 'well, we warned you'.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: dissolute ocelot on July 19, 2021, 08:27:57 AM
BBC Breakfast this morning lots of celebrations of clubs opening and full-contact weddings. Some utter arses who are going to a wedding this week: one of the women in the bridal party locked her daughter in her bedroom for 9 days after the daughter's friend got COVID so she could go on the hen night and to the wedding. Ban weddings full stop.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: frajer on July 19, 2021, 08:35:48 AM
Yeah after not being sure whether it was going ahead, a colleague of mine has booked 2 days off this week to travel to a wedding, and I can’t foresee a cat in hell’s chance he won’t be bringing a lovely slice of Covid back to the office for everyone to enjoy.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 19, 2021, 08:47:17 AM
The restrictions have been eased at the swimming pool. To be honest I don't think the restrictions would have done much anyway, the changing rooms are a classic badly ventilated black hole of Cov-cutta, but still some gleeful faces and additional reckless endangerment today by the scum elements.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Paul Calf on July 19, 2021, 09:14:18 AM
I'm amazed that anyone's gong to public swimming pools at the moment. They're filthy, poorly-lit-and-ventilated, foul-reeking, disease-infested, piss-flooded sweatpits at the best of times.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: checkoutgirl on July 19, 2021, 09:21:00 AM
but continued to send their son to school like a pair of cunting arseholes.

I'm wondering what the legality of that is, will we get lawsuits? Reckless endangerment, indirect manslaughter, that kind of thing. If something lethal happened and it could be easily traced to a pair of stupid cunts acting the fuckwit I imagine I'd want vengeance.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bomb_dog on July 19, 2021, 09:42:22 AM
…Reckless endangerment, indirect manslaughter…..

I had to check the quote above to see if this was a comment on current government policy. Perhaps if you’d mentioned genocide…
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MrMrs on July 19, 2021, 09:42:56 AM
I'm amazed that anyone's gong to public swimming pools at the moment. They're filthy, poorly-lit-and-ventilated, foul-reeking, disease-infested, piss-flooded sweatpits at the best of times.

sounds like Shoulders' prefect environment
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on July 19, 2021, 09:59:31 AM
He is probley drinking a bier in the shallow end

🤣🤣🤣
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 19, 2021, 10:42:21 AM
My gym's still keeping the sprays and cloths for wiping down the equipment. Thank fuck. I haven't been for a swim since lockdown started last year, it's a nightmare trying to find a slot because of all the swimming lessons.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on July 19, 2021, 10:53:04 AM
Don't think we should be hammering people going to clubs, weddings or even going maskless on public transport. They're doing what they're allowed to do, by the government and following the cues of the government. That's where fault lies here.

I did hope that the Metropolitan Line having to close yesterday might have made Johnson a little worried given how most of the stations in his consistency are Metropolitan Line, meaning many of his constituents would have had a taste of how infrastructure might face issues if cases continue to rise. Clearly not.

This is the thing I don't think they have quite got. Uncontrolled spread through the population, even with high vax rates, but still with (correct) obligation to isolate if you have it or were in close contact means services will start dropping out. It's extremely predictable. What isn't predictable is which services, and when!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on July 19, 2021, 11:09:31 AM
I really don’t know how to handle these situations, going forward. The government and media WANT us blaming each other. But how can we not? The information is out there and not hard to find: the virus isn’t going anywhere, being vaccinated is no guarantee of anything but a potential reduction in illness and avoidance of hospitalisation. And yet people are quite happy to flock to unlock despite this, with not even the slightest concessions to basic non-onerous safety precautions (masking, distancing, ventilation). They can’t all be rabid antivaxxers, lockdown sceptics etc. I have a real low tolerance for stupidity. So how do I avoid blaming stupid people for prolonging a situation that is going to indirectly fuck up my life in ways I’m taking steps to avoid doing myself directly?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 19, 2021, 11:12:17 AM
Don't think we should be hammering people going to clubs, weddings or even going maskless on public transport. They're doing what they're allowed to do, by the government and following the cues of the government. That's where fault lies here.

I disagree. People should be able to use basic common sense to figure out how trustworthy their government is and what their motivators are. The Tories have been in power since 2010 and it should be obvious that they want to break the NHS, only care about the rich and especially don't care about clinically vulnerable people. Also, if people are following the cues of the government they should be still wearing masks as the government are advising this, just not mandating this.

Going to clubs in particular seems like a sure way to get COVID. With 1 in 95 people in England having it, and limited ventillation in sweaty clubs and people getting close to one another, you may as well put up a sign outside a club saying "Get infected here". No doubt most people who go to clubs will use public transport to get home, so even if they isolate for 10 days afterwards (and I imagine most won't) they are still being very selfish.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Norton Canes on July 19, 2021, 11:16:01 AM
The Tories have been in power since 2010 and it should be obvious that they want to break the NHS, only care about the rich and especially don't care about clinically vulnerable people

And ultimately with this they're dividing the country, which has always been their primary aim. 
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: katzenjammer on July 19, 2021, 11:18:02 AM
The information is out there and not hard to find

There is an incredible amount of information out there from a plethora of sources, of variable quality, which has been constantly changing since the pandemic started. It's not reasonable to expect anyone to search this stuff out, revise it regularly and then make rational decisions whilst dealing with everything else going on in their lives.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Beagle 2 on July 19, 2021, 11:30:22 AM
I can't get annoyed at young people for going out and taking risks given my attitude to booze and chemicals at the same age.

Covid at my son's school so they're all out until the end of the summer now. Mother in law had to cancel her visit due to coming down with a cough and not being organised enough to have any tests in, just a sudden realisation that getting on a plane with a hacking cough might not go down well.

Freedom day!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 19, 2021, 11:38:55 AM
Pictures of scenes in nightclubs making me feel a bit sick.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 19, 2021, 11:39:49 AM
From my anecdotal experience of living in two areas of high/low fuckdown risk, if people live in a very low covid area everyone sticks pretty religiously to the rules - everyone can see them working and no one wants the shame of being traced as the person who was a cunt. In places where covid is already rife, nobody is arsed about restrictions - if someone doesn’t get it off me, they’ll get it off the next person so why am I locking myself in my house for 2 weeks? It’s everywhere already.

There’s a sociology PhD in that somewhere.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on July 19, 2021, 12:01:32 PM
And that’s what I’m really trying to get straight in my head. How do you NOT end up resenting these cunts?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 19, 2021, 12:05:01 PM
I went shopping earlier and was surprised to see people still wearing masks. At least it made me feel less self-conscious about wearing mine.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on July 19, 2021, 12:07:59 PM
That’s something at least, glad you had a non-unpleasant experience! Who knows, maybe people will be sensible and considerate after all…[1]
 1. Nah.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 19, 2021, 12:09:16 PM
Have the government thought about how things are going to stay open in the event of 1,000,000 new cases a week?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 19, 2021, 12:13:33 PM
That’s something at least, glad you had a non-unpleasant experience! Who knows, maybe people will be sensible and considerate after all…[1]
 1. Nah.
I don't know how big antivaxx/anti-mask culture is in Manchester, but I see more people wearing masks than not wearing them. My parents, who live down south, are going to keep wearing theirs. I don't know if I'll wear mine to gigs but I will on public transport, I think they prefer you to up here anyway, and it's mandatory for hospital/GP visits.

Thank fuck I work from home.
Have the government thought about how things are going to stay open in the event of 1,000,000 new cases a week?
No. Or alternatively, yes, but who cares if people get sick?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 19, 2021, 12:19:27 PM
I'm amazed that anyone's gong to public swimming pools at the moment. They're filthy, poorly-lit-and-ventilated, foul-reeking, disease-infested, piss-flooded sweatpits at the best of times.

They have been limiting numbers considerably, and probably never been cleaner since opening, but yes, I injured my spine while running a few months ago and swimming is helping with rehab (and in general).

The pool was perfectly ok April-June. Thankfully no kids either, but yes, since cases have gone up I'm nervous about going more so now the few measures in place have been lifted. Shit situation all round.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 19, 2021, 12:22:05 PM
I don't want to go clubbing in this weather anyway, it's as hot as Satan's ringpiece. I went to see Mark Lanegan at the Ritz a few years ago and it was the height of summer, and we had to stand next to a mahoosive fan because it was so ridiculously hot and I was sweating like a beast. Bob Vylan is going to be the same and IIRC it's in a smaller venue.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: SpiderChrist on July 19, 2021, 12:56:00 PM
There's no fucking way I'm going to a gig. Fuck that.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: scarecrow on July 19, 2021, 01:13:28 PM
My flatmates are all mad for it. Don't know what to do.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 19, 2021, 01:17:41 PM
There's an anti-lockdown protest taking today in Parliament Square, with the police and anti lockdown protestors fighting. The protestors claim they stand for peace, justice , equality and love and have leaflets comparing Johnson to Hitler. A three day campout outside the House of Parliament is planned.

The COVID denier crowd have got almost everything they want and they are still kicking off. Johnson cannot appease them no matter how he tries.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Bernice on July 19, 2021, 02:26:50 PM
What are they protesting, it literally just ended.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 19, 2021, 02:29:55 PM
Johnson's useful idiots. Scream "fascism" about things that have nothing to do with it and deflect from the real repression. I fucking hate them.

One of them has a sign informing us that the police will be after us next. They already are you cunts. Why don't you protest that? Oh yes, because you're far-right too.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on July 19, 2021, 02:41:37 PM
This is a fun read

Was Ebola a near miss?

https://lessonsfromthecrisis.substack.com/p/was-ebola-a-near-miss
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on July 19, 2021, 03:39:22 PM
The COVID denier crowd have got almost everything they want and they are still kicking off. Johnson cannot appease them no matter how he tries.

Oh, he’ll try…
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 19, 2021, 03:41:36 PM
Why are Labour and the Tories vying for the votes of a minority of people further to the right than their base electorate who wouldn't ever vote for them?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 19, 2021, 03:42:08 PM
Quote
Speaking at today's anti-lockdown, anti-vaccine protest in Parliament Square, retired police officer Mark Sexton says if all Covid restrictions are not lifted and vaccinations are not ceased, citizens have a right to arrest ministers and MPs by force and set up common law courts.

https://twitter.com/Shayan86/status/1417111838119108616

Fucking terrifying. Isn't saying that inciting violence? Or is it ok because he isn't left-wing?

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 19, 2021, 03:43:23 PM
Oh, he’ll try…

Indeed, he is already trying. Dropping the restrictions on July 19th is partly about trying to make sure these people, many of whom are probably Tory supporters, still vote for him in 2024 rather than for an openly far-right party.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 19, 2021, 03:44:40 PM
Wouldnt mind setting up common law courts and dragging half those cunts out and hanging em.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: The Culture Bunker on July 19, 2021, 03:49:15 PM
https://twitter.com/Shayan86/status/1417111838119108616

Fucking terrifying. Isn't saying that inciting violence? Or is it ok because he isn't left-wing?
Dead within two years, she says? Fuck it, I wouldn't normally drink on a work night, but I might as well have a few tonight if my days are numbered so few.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 19, 2021, 04:15:37 PM
https://twitter.com/Shayan86/status/1417111838119108616

Fucking terrifying. Isn't saying that inciting violence? Or is it ok because he isn't left-wing?

or a woman mourning another woman murdered by a police officer
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 19, 2021, 05:10:49 PM
Indeed, he is already trying. Dropping the restrictions on July 19th is partly about trying to make sure these people, many of whom are probably Tory supporters, still vote for him in 2024 rather than for an openly far-right party.
As with Keith courting the Blue Labour crowd, it won’t work.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on July 19, 2021, 05:25:26 PM
Proof of vaccination required for clubbers from the end of September.   Phrases involving closing stable doors and bolting horses spring to mind, but hey, if it gets them jabbin...
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on July 19, 2021, 05:30:50 PM
ANDREW LLOYD WEBBER'S CINDERELLA CANCELLED BY ViD-FACISM.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 19, 2021, 05:32:48 PM
Proof of vaccination required for clubbers from the end of September.   Phrases involving closing stable doors and bolting horses spring to mind, but hey, if it gets them jabbin...

Hahaha...back to not know what to laughing at, the ludicrousness or the basic school-level incompetence.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 19, 2021, 05:37:26 PM
People in the US advised not to travel to the UK.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 19, 2021, 05:51:46 PM
That was ages ago wasnt it? A grim low point, whenever it was.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 19, 2021, 05:54:03 PM
My gym's still keeping the sprays and cloths for wiping down the equipment. Thank fuck. I haven't been for a swim since lockdown started last year, it's a nightmare trying to find a slot because of all the swimming lessons.

Let nature be your gym
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 19, 2021, 05:54:40 PM
Not sure, it came up on the BBC just now. Might be that they've raised the UK to the highest thread level recently but brought in the don't travel advice before that.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 19, 2021, 05:57:55 PM
I went shopping earlier and was surprised to see people still wearing masks. At least it made me feel less self-conscious about wearing mine.

??? Why be self-conscious about doing the right thing. Should be proud
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 19, 2021, 06:00:35 PM
Quote
At the Egg nightclub in London, reveler Alex Clark acknowledged feeling “a bit of apprehension and uncertainty.”

Fellow clubgoer Kevin Ally felt no such qualms. “There’s zero concern,” he said. “The only concern is why we haven’t been here for a year and a half. It’s been a very long time since we’ve been out.

“It’s good to be back, and we’re here to dance.”

I think Kevin is missing a W before his surname.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 19, 2021, 06:04:32 PM
Contempt. Not part of any decent society. Destroy him.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on July 19, 2021, 07:42:28 PM
Proof of vaccination required for clubbers from the end of September.   Phrases involving closing stable doors and bolting horses spring to mind, but hey, if it gets them jabbin...
Should do what Macron did in France, and require proof of double vaccination before being allowed into <insert, but definitely including nightclubs>. Would ensure more people get vaccinated. In France the number of people registering for a jab went up from hundreds of thousands to millions in one day.

Waiting until end-September to do this for nightclubs here is utterly ridiculous- needs to be done immediately.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/07/14/why-vaccine-shy-french-are-suddenly-rushing-to-get-jabbed

"The government’s decision to allow only the fully vaccinated to enter restaurants, bars, trains and other spaces has caused a spike in inoculations".

(https://www.economist.com/img/b/1000/591/90/sites/default/files/20210717_WOC850.png)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Rev+ on July 19, 2021, 09:30:37 PM
Got back from SAINO'S about an hour ago and they've already stripped out the minimal protections they had.  There was never a one way system but they did have one set of doors designated as an entrance and another as an exit, but that's been fucked off.  Screens between self-checkouts have all been removed and they've all been switched back on rather than having alternate machines disabled, meaning you're pretty much standing shoulder-to-shoulder.  Sign out the front now says 'wearing a mask is now optional', and maybe a third of the people inside were bothering.

Just in time for the traditional 'sunburned blokes going in shirtless and dripping sweat all over the fruit and veg' which shouldn't have been bloody tolerated at the best of times.  This is all just going to go so well.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 19, 2021, 10:06:21 PM
Thoughts and prayers with Andrew Lloyd Webber tonight
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Beagle 2 on July 19, 2021, 10:07:48 PM
Why would they remove the screens? Went out shopping today and it was all the same as usual, everyone masked up. Sainsbury's still stopping people going in if it was getting full. Guess that's up to the discretion of the staff as well! 
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: druss on July 19, 2021, 10:30:02 PM
Loving freedom day, licked a banister then coughed on some kids at the swimming pool, have waited so long for this.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: DrGreggles on July 19, 2021, 10:52:37 PM
People in the US advised not to travel to the UK.

Yeah, today's 'update' was "everything remains the same".
Quite rightly and all that, but I was hopeful regardless.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pranet on July 19, 2021, 10:55:43 PM
Why would they remove the screens? Went out shopping today and it was all the same as usual, everyone masked up. Sainsbury's still stopping people going in if it was getting full. Guess that's up to the discretion of the staff as well!

There has been some talk that the screens are counter productive, in that they reduce air flow. Relicts of the days when it was all about droplets rather than aerosols.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: flotemysost on July 19, 2021, 10:56:25 PM
https://twitter.com/Shayan86/status/1417111838119108616

Fucking terrifying. Isn't saying that inciting violence? Or is it ok because he isn't left-wing?

Ah, the old "drinking children's blood" accusation, where have I heard that one before?

I can really feel the peace, love, harmony and antisemitism radiating (in a non-5G way, of course) from these brave souls.

Also #itstime is a fucking shite hashtag to try and get trending for their "cause" - the main results for it seem to be about the Uluru Statement, baseball, and (wonderfully) people getting their vaccine.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: checkoutgirl on July 19, 2021, 11:30:10 PM
non-unpleasant

pleasant?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on July 19, 2021, 11:36:39 PM
Well, yes, but the pleasantness was more in the specific, noticeable lack of unpleasantness, so…
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Rev+ on July 20, 2021, 12:47:15 AM
There has been some talk that the screens are counter productive, in that they reduce air flow. Relicts of the days when it was all about droplets rather than aerosols.

I've always been 50/50 on the self-checkout screens, because the set-up at my local one involves two banks of machines that face away from each other.  Good enough while you're scanning your shopping, but the screens jutted out so much that once you'd finished you turned around to a narrow corridor of about two feet across, and social distancing went completely to the bollocks.  Not to mention the attendant who had to buzz up and down dodging people to approve sales of booze and paracetamol.

It was how quickly they ripped all of that out that struck me today.  Some real 'freedom day' shit from the store manager no doubt.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: checkoutgirl on July 20, 2021, 01:10:14 AM
Well, yes, but the pleasantness was more in the specific, noticeable lack of unpleasantness, so…

Glad you didn't have an unpleasant experience?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: checkoutgirl on July 20, 2021, 01:17:07 AM
Freedom day sounds suspiciously American to me. The septics are absolutely obsessed with that word and concept as it justifies all sorts of petulant, selfish and downright dangerous behavior.

Coal rolling. Anti masking. Anti vaccing. Conspiracies. Pig ignorance. Whinging and complaining. Ranting and raving. All in the name of freedom.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 20, 2021, 01:54:06 AM
Anyone who calls masks muzzles or face nappies needs a good shoeing.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 20, 2021, 07:22:24 AM
Freedom day sounds suspiciously American to me. The septics are absolutely obsessed with that word and concept as it justifies all sorts of petulant, selfish and downright dangerous behavior.

Coal rolling. Anti masking. Anti vaccing. Conspiracies. Pig ignorance. Whinging and complaining. Ranting and raving. All in the name of freedom.

Pink Floyd’s Animals rewrite, all bark no bite
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Huxleys Babkins on July 20, 2021, 11:57:39 AM
I've always been 50/50 on the self-checkout screens, because the set-up at my local one involves two banks of machines that face away from each other.  Good enough while you're scanning your shopping, but the screens jutted out so much that once you'd finished you turned around to a narrow corridor of about two feet across, and social distancing went completely to the bollocks.  Not to mention the attendant who had to buzz up and down dodging people to approve sales of booze and paracetamol.

It was how quickly they ripped all of that out that struck me today.  Some real 'freedom day' shit from the store manager no doubt.

My local's got rid of them too, so it's likely company policy rather than an overzealous store manager.

Asda and Tesco have apparently kept all their screens and such in place and I had an email from Tesco saying that they'd be encouraging customers to wear masks as well as having quiet hours, so I'll be looking to do my post-Aldi mop ups there for now.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Dr Rock on July 20, 2021, 12:03:03 PM
Report from Muswell Hill - shopkeeper says it's about 50/50 people choosing to not wear masks in his shop. fucking twats.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 20, 2021, 12:15:46 PM
Business minister undermining the self-isolation rules today.

Quote
Earlier, business minister Paul Scully told the BBC that he would encourage people to make "informed decisions" if they were pinged by the NHS Covid app.

He said the app was a "really important tool" and that he would "encourage people to use it" but pointed out that the official guidance meant that people did not have a legal obligation to isolate if they were pinged.

It is an obligation in certain scenarios - such as when people are a close contact of a Covid case and called and told to isolate by test and trace.

However, shortly afterwards a Downing Street spokeswoman said it was “crucial” to self-isolate when told and business should be supporting employees to do so.

She added: "Given the risk of having and spreading the virus when people have been in contact with someone with Covid, it is crucial people isolate when they are told to do so, either by NHS Test and Trace or by the NHS Covid app.

“Businesses should be supporting employees to isolate, they should not be encouraging them to break isolation.”
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: chveik on July 20, 2021, 12:59:22 PM
everyone is still obligated to wear masks in shops here
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: SpiderChrist on July 20, 2021, 01:10:51 PM
Had an email from Sainsburys yesterday:

Quote
From today, Monday 19th July, wearing a face covering is now a personal choice in England.

    The safety of our customers and colleagues remains our highest priority, so we will be encouraging everyone to continue wearing face coverings if they can.
    We plan to retain screens between customers and colleagues at checkouts.
     We will also be retaining hand sanitiser stations and all strict cleaning regimes such as the thorough cleaning of baskets and trollies, as well as deep cleaning overnight.
    Other covid measures will gradually be removed from store in line with government guidance.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 20, 2021, 01:18:11 PM
Went to Home Bargains to buy some discounted grief matter. Majority of shoppers wearing masks, some seemingly following others. No staff wearing masks. Can see why wearing those 8 hours a day would be fucking horrible, so even more important the customers wear them.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 20, 2021, 01:20:52 PM
Most people in the Co-Op were wearing masks, me included.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: katzenjammer on July 20, 2021, 01:52:46 PM
Can see why wearing those 8 hours a day would be fucking horrible, so even more important the customers wear them.
Staff or customer they should be wearing masks. I find wearing one for 8 hours a day a bit annoying at worst
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on July 20, 2021, 03:13:01 PM
My retail experiences so far this week:

B&Q: mostly masked
Selco: didn’t notice, was in & out so quick
Spar: about half and half
Aldi: hardly any masks
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on July 20, 2021, 03:14:58 PM
Predictably, the Asda here is by far the most maskless.  It always was full of absolute skanks.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 20, 2021, 05:19:23 PM
My local's got rid of them too, so it's likely company policy rather than an overzealous store manager.

Asda and Tesco have apparently kept all their screens and such in place and I had an email from Tesco saying that they'd be encouraging customers to wear masks as well as having quiet hours, so I'll be looking to do my post-Aldi mop ups there for now.

I got that email from Tesco, it said the quiet hours are "for customers who need or want a quieter shopping experience" and I thought "That'll do for me," but I looked on the website for my local store and it's just one hour a week for elderly and vulnerable customers.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: monkfromhavana on July 20, 2021, 05:28:19 PM
Here in the thriving metropolis that is Coventry, the Tesco was around 60/40 in favour of the no masks.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 20, 2021, 06:27:47 PM
96 deaths today

Arrrgh
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 20, 2021, 06:30:23 PM
Had an email from Sainsburys yesterday:

Not their highest priority. Boycott the Trump of supermarkets
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 20, 2021, 06:31:09 PM
Staff or customer they should be wearing masks. I find wearing one for 8 hours a day a bit annoying at worst

They should be allowed mask breaks outside
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 20, 2021, 06:52:08 PM
Anyone else switching to online delivery now masks are optional in some supermarkets? The delivery drivers don't always seem to wear masks (although maybe this depends on which supermarket you get your delivery from) so you may want to wear a mask (or even double mask) when you open the door. Still feels safer than going into a supermarket full of sweaty maskless people though.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 20, 2021, 07:10:56 PM
Highly doubt they are regularly washing or sanitising their hands either.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 20, 2021, 07:55:45 PM
No service on the Circle or Hammersmith and City Line from 10pm tonight due to unavailability of service control room staff (which I presume is COVID related). Currently severe delays on the H&C and Circle clockwise due to train cancellations.

I presume both lines will run properly again tomorrow but we'll see more and more of this over the next few weeks. It's also going to mean more people on fewer trains again
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on July 20, 2021, 08:13:21 PM
96 deaths today

Arrrgh

100-150 deaths per day are already "baked in" by the recent case numbers sadly
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Dr Rock on July 20, 2021, 08:56:03 PM
Who got a postman today? I didn't. Royal Mail say many areas down to deliveries every other day due to Covid and isolating.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bomb_dog on July 20, 2021, 08:57:37 PM
I’ve been getting post delivered on a Sunday morning recently.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 20, 2021, 09:19:32 PM
100-150 deaths per day are already "baked in" by the recent case numbers sadly

More than that the rate its I'd have thought, given the feed through time and daily cases continuing to increase by 40% week on week. We are on course for around 475 deaths this week.

Before long that will translate to 250-350 a day using the figures we already have. But no lockdown, in fact even less lockdown.

Now it's everyone's personal responsibility to remain alive I guess they will turn the electricity and water off too.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: The Mollusk on July 21, 2021, 09:30:10 AM
Predictably, the Asda here is by far the most maskless.  It always was full of absolute skanks.

lol, bit classist. People from all walks of life have had their brains scrambled by the flip-flopping government guidance, not just tHe PoOr
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: peanutbutter on July 21, 2021, 01:20:32 PM
Got an email just there outlining a nearish club's attempts to integrate testing for this weekend. here's the email: https://madmimi.com/p/e6e0a21

Man...  to try and add your own rules 2 days before reopening seems like a recipe for a lot of very angry people at the door. But like, all these places are just gonna have no staff on week 2 with the way things are going
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on July 21, 2021, 02:46:03 PM
lol, bit classist. People from all walks of life have had their brains scrambled by the flip-flopping government guidance, not just tHe PoOr

Nice strawman but it's got nothing to do with whether they're poor or not.  The prices in Asda are on par with Tesco and Morrisons, and Aldi is cheaper still but it's only Asda that seems to attract people with poor hygiene, manners, etc, at least around here.

Surely it's more classist to assume I'm talking about the poor when discussing skanky people.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 21, 2021, 04:00:04 PM
Quote
The BBC Proms will go ahead at full capacity this year, with audience members "strongly encouraged" to wear masks.

They will also be required to provide a negative lateral flow test, a positive PCR test or proof of double vaccination.

Promming tickets, where audience members can stand in the arena or gallery areas of the Royal Albert Hall, will also be available on the day of each concert...

The BBC says: "The safety of our audiences is our main priority and we are taking every step we can to open the Proms safely without social distancing."

Audience members over the age of 18 will be asked to provide a negative lateral flow test taken within 48 hours of the performance, or evidence of double vaccination provided via the NHS app or a letter provided by the NHS.

They can also offer proof of natural immunity based upon a positive PCR test taken within 180 days of the performance.

Under 18s will be asked for verbal confirmation from a parent or guardian that they have not received a positive test.

I hope it's made clear to potential audience members that anyone who had a positive PCR test within 10 days of the Proms should be isolating and not turning up at the Proms.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: The Mollusk on July 21, 2021, 05:39:00 PM
Nice strawman but it's got nothing to do with whether they're poor or not.  The prices in Asda are on par with Tesco and Morrisons, and Aldi is cheaper still but it's only Asda that seems to attract people with poor hygiene, manners, etc, at least around here.

Surely it's more classist to assume I'm talking about the poor when discussing skanky people.

Classist was the wrong word, I’ll admit, but it’s unnecessarily snobbish to draw parallels/assumptions that “predictably” the type of people you’re describing would also by default be too thick or ignorant to wear a mask. Yeah sure you can say “but I saw it with my own eyes” but the reality is more a completely random draw of who’s making those decisions, and on that sense the point I made in my post still stands. Since being back at work in February and commuting across the city every day I’ve seen all manner of people from Canary Wharf city boy cunts to homeless people on the street either wearing or not wearing masks.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 21, 2021, 05:57:26 PM
Do rich cunts shop at ASDA regularly?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 21, 2021, 06:06:39 PM
73 deaths today up from only 24 same time last week.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: flotemysost on July 21, 2021, 06:26:20 PM
Re: ASDA etc. - from what I've seen, mask wearing and distancing has been consistently patchy (if that's not too much of an oxymoron) in pretty much every supermarket. Co-Op is generally one of the pricier ones, but I posted a couple of months ago about the idiot in my local branch brazenly gulping from a mug of tea as he browsed the aisles as if it was his living room.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: peanutbutter on July 21, 2021, 06:53:57 PM
I thought "skanky" implied lower class status in general? Like, even if it were someone who was wealthy the implication would be that their origin or their preferences are tacky in manner that's in line with the tackiness of some people in a lower class status.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: katzenjammer on July 21, 2021, 06:58:24 PM
Do rich cunts shop at ASDA regularly?

Probably. What you see turning up to Waitrose in their Range Rovers are more likely debt cunts
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on July 21, 2021, 07:01:51 PM
I went to buy a car the other day and they were fucking desperate for me to over commit to some cunt wagon which would make my neighbours and colleagues build a fucking noose. I literally couldn't give less of a fuck, just my old car died, so I left with something which disappointed everyone but me.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on July 21, 2021, 07:02:07 PM
Back at work after a couple of days off, and the stairs have been returned to normal traffic from the one-way system that was in use. Bit disconcerting the first time you go down a stairwell you’re used for the past year only to go up.

And almost everyone masked! Saw two women not wearing masks, everyone else was abiding by senior leadership’s request to keep using them when moving around the building. And those two could easily have had exemptions I guess (not that I saw anyone exercising an exemption when masks were mandatory…).
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on July 21, 2021, 07:14:54 PM
73 deaths today up from only 24 same time last week.

On the bright side, the North West and North East are showing signs of dipping in case numbers along with Scotland. Shame about the rest of England.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Psybro on July 21, 2021, 08:36:57 PM
Probably. What you see turning up to Waitrose in their Range Rovers are more likely debt cunts

Last March locally Waitrose was the first one to get hit by bog roll boogaloo. All the tissues were gone too which means people must've been planning to wad them up and wipe their arses with them.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 21, 2021, 08:44:31 PM
The one thing the middle classes can't stand is the thought of not being able to wipe their arse.

Please Satan, take my tiny pots of Zhoug and my wild oregano dispenser, don't deprive me of the shitrags
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 21, 2021, 09:04:10 PM
I remember telling my dad that he could always wash his arse with a flannel and soap if he didn't like it if he couldn't get hold of any bog roll and he sounded as if I'd just given him the secret of alchemy
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Alberon on July 21, 2021, 09:28:18 PM
Just get one of those fancy Japanese toilets that washes and dries your bum for you.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: hamfist on July 21, 2021, 11:47:19 PM
the truly posh wipe their arses on baby white rabbits then throw them in a waste disposal grinder
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on July 22, 2021, 01:32:14 AM
Do rich cunts shop at ASDA regularly?

That or Aldi.  I know the odd rich person (doctor who owns the practice etc) and they're the tightest people I know in terms of spending money on day to day stuff.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: gib on July 22, 2021, 01:53:13 AM
can someone get the stats for M&S
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: buttgammon on July 22, 2021, 08:37:18 AM
can someone get the stats for M&S

For what it's worth, I was in an M&S for the first time in ages the other day and couldn't remember the last time I saw so many people not wearing masks in a shop.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 22, 2021, 09:58:33 AM
Speaking of supermarkets, has anyone else noticed gaps in shelves? The freezer in my local Co-Op was empty in places and apparently it's because lorry drivers keep getting pinged and have to isolate.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: SpiderChrist on July 22, 2021, 10:02:55 AM
It's all going so well. SO well. The natural party of government are in charge.

The empty shelves are apparently one of the symptoms of the "pingdemic"*


*apologies for using that cunty word but I'm in a hurry
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Quote on July 22, 2021, 10:13:19 AM
No doubt the Tory press (egged on by the Tory party) will start calling for a total abandonment of any lingering half arsed efforts at containment, as a common sense solution to the ‘pingdemic’.

People are getting pinged because our hopeless government willingly allowed the virus to run riot, yet again. That’s the problem - not the app doing what it’s meant to do.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on July 22, 2021, 10:16:27 AM
Supply chains for meat seem to be most at risk, additionally made worse by high vacancy levels due to Brexit: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-food-supply-chains-edge-failing-meat-industry-says-2021-07-21/.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: SpiderChrist on July 22, 2021, 10:42:57 AM
People are getting pinged because our hopeless government willingly allowed the virus to run riot, yet again. That’s the problem - not the app doing what it’s meant to do.

This ^^^ is so obvious it feels daft to point it out, but the narrative that seems to being pushed is "blame the app". Not terribly surprising, though.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 22, 2021, 12:24:30 PM
It's almost like Remainers warned this sort of thing would happen.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 22, 2021, 02:17:47 PM
No doubt the Tory press (egged on by the Tory party) will start calling for a total abandonment of any lingering half arsed efforts at containment, as a common sense solution to the ‘pingdemic’.

People are getting pinged because our hopeless government willingly allowed the virus to run riot, yet again. That’s the problem - not the app doing what it’s meant to do.

Yes, this from the article posted by steveh:

Quote
On Monday, England's car plants, railways, supermarkets and pubs warned the government that the COVID-19 tracing app, which has told hundreds of thousands of workers to isolate, was wrecking the recoveryand pushing supply chains to the brink of collapse

is annoying and stupid. "This fire alarm is making it awfully hard for people to work. Let's just disconnect it"
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 22, 2021, 02:50:42 PM
I hate this "we don't want government by central diktat" which is the excuse of ministers for getting rid of the mask mandate. So they don't want a diktat for keeping people safe but they want to ban removing statues. I really do think that people who still support this government should be ashamed of themselves.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on July 22, 2021, 03:37:42 PM
This ^^^ is so obvious it feels daft to point it out, but the narrative that seems to being pushed is "blame the app". Not terribly surprising, though.

Welcome to the world of software developers, “but it’s doing exactly what we asked for, why is it doing that, make it do a different thing!”
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 22, 2021, 03:45:49 PM
Apparently the thinking behind the divergence in the ZOE figures has to do with the demographics of ZOE users. ZOE users are significantly more likely to be vaccinated. So whilst the ZOE figures have been bang on throughout the pandemic, they now don't really represent the full population due to skewing towards the fully vaccinated proportion of the population.

They've corrected for this now, and consequently their daily new cases estimate rose from 30 something thousand yesterday to 60 thousand today.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 22, 2021, 05:58:29 PM
Cases down 8.5k from last week.

Open the nightclubs!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 22, 2021, 10:19:47 PM
Cases down 8.5k from last week.

Open the nightclubs!

How's that? It says up 63,391 (24.2%) on the last 7 days.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 22, 2021, 10:32:39 PM
How's that? It says up 63,391 (24.2%) on the last 7 days.

It's just a comparison between today's cases and last Thursday's case.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 22, 2021, 10:42:54 PM
How's that? It says up 63,391 (24.2%) on the last 7 days.

Daily new cases vs total active cases I think?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 23, 2021, 07:19:19 AM
It's just a comparison between today's cases and last Thursday's case.

Which is not the correct way to interpret the data, of course
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Bernice on July 23, 2021, 08:00:05 AM
Which is not the correct way to interpret the data, of course

It's not really 'data' unless you're wearing a monocular loupe and tearing apart clods of stranger turds with your bare hands.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: vanilla.coffee on July 23, 2021, 08:44:45 AM
Food delivery depot workers and drivers can ignore the tracking app and won’t need to isolate now.
It’s still not the Enya video we were all hoping for yet is it?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 23, 2021, 01:57:45 PM
So instead of being off work because they've been pinged by the app and might have Covid, they'll be in work and the small proportion of them who do have Covid will spread it around, and eventually more people will be off work because they definitely do have Covid than would have been off work because they'd been pinged.

Meanwhile, the main thing causing shortages of delivery drivers is Brexit. The "pingdemic" is just another blame-shifting exercise.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 23, 2021, 02:03:34 PM
It's not really 'data' unless you're wearing a monocular loupe and tearing apart clods of stranger turds with your bare hands.

I took part in a debate last night on this very topic, coincidentally. To be aired in August
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 23, 2021, 05:30:40 PM
Another fall in cases vs. same time last week. Wild swing, any particular reason?

Hospitalisations and deaths similar to last few days.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Big Mclargehuge on July 23, 2021, 05:54:32 PM
New Variation's just been confirmed. 16 cases and counting. Classic Boris.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on July 23, 2021, 06:12:44 PM
Covid is done. Put a few pins in the cunt.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 23, 2021, 06:32:42 PM
Another fall in cases vs. same time last week. Wild swing, any particular reason?

Hospitalisations and deaths similar to last few days.

Lower testing
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on July 23, 2021, 08:47:42 PM
Another fall in cases vs. same time last week. Wild swing, any particular reason?

Schools broke up, so no more regular testing of kids for a bit.  Expect a new wave when they go back if this one dies down
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 24, 2021, 09:01:22 AM
Some Underground lines are closed on weekends due to engineering work, and the spread of COVID has closed even more lines today. Due to staff shortages the Hammersmith and City and Circle lines are closed and the Central Line is running with severe delays due to train cancellations.

There's also no service between Edgware Road and High Street Kensington on the District Line between 06:45 and 11:00 due to staff shortages. Northern Line has minor delays due to train cancellations.

No service on the Metropolitan Line until 12 - not sure if this is COVID related, I presume not if replacement buses are operarting.

And that's with masks being required on the tube - imagine how many more staff would need to isolate if that hadn't been put in place.

I imagine delays also help spread COVID as people will be on the Tube for longer.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 24, 2021, 07:06:21 PM
Lower testing

Looks like a little over 1m tests a day that I can see, highest level since April 29.

Could be the end of the wave? Or beginning of the end anyway. At a certain point it just runs out of people to infect I suppose.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on July 24, 2021, 09:03:42 PM
Looks like a little over 1m tests a day that I can see, highest level since April 29.

Could be the end of the wave? Or beginning of the end anyway. At a certain point it just runs out of people to infect I suppose.

Depends on mutation ability and reinfection rate. Having the flu one year doesn't stop you getting it the next.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 24, 2021, 09:35:16 PM
Owen Jones has got it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 25, 2021, 07:27:24 AM
Owen Jones has got it.

A relief, a man in the pub said Owen Jones was more right wing than Hitler.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 25, 2021, 09:33:09 AM
Tfl have closed Aldgate, Barbican and Temple stations "Due to the temporary unavailability of station staff."

All these stations have other stations nearby, but one wonders how much more disruption there will be to the tube due to COVID.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 25, 2021, 10:21:44 AM
Looks like a little over 1m tests a day that I can see, highest level since April 29.

Could be the end of the wave? Or beginning of the end anyway. At a certain point it just runs out of people to infect I suppose.

Yes, I realised its not a testing thing the next day when I was told it wasn't a testing thing.

It would be odd that Freedom day results in the end of the wave - unless Delta has burned out? (as you say). This is where wastewater data will be critical. That showed a massive spike over the last 7 days across all regions after a strange dip and plateau the preceding week(s) [across majority of regions, NE had a shorter dip more lately]
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kankurette on July 25, 2021, 10:51:41 AM
A relief, a man in the pub said Owen Jones was more right wing than Hitler.
I missed the bit where Owen Jones did a genocide.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on July 25, 2021, 11:02:24 AM
Personally I find him an odious little twerp, but he’s on the right - er, correct side so, I dunno, thoughts & prayers or whatevs.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 25, 2021, 11:06:12 AM
Yes, I realised its not a testing thing the next day when I was told it wasn't a testing thing.

It would be odd that Freedom day results in the end of the wave - unless Delta has burned out? (as you say). This is where wastewater data will be critical. That showed a massive spike over the last 7 days across all regions after a strange dip and plateau the preceding week(s) [across majority of regions, NE had a shorter dip more lately]

I think what I’ve taken from spikes is that there doesn’t seem to be a logical end point for them (or there is, but it’s opaque or possibly a combination of factors that we don’t know about or at least I don’t).

The spikes can’t continue indefinitely. I think waves make certain people vulnerable - usually the young and working class because that’s who has to travel on public transit to go to work every day while Mr and Mrs Beige slide on their suburban loafers, put a teabag in their “Keep Calm & Carry On!” mug and work from home.

At a certain point, everyone who’s at risk basically gets it, the wave dies back, and the oldies come out of semi-hibernation which keeps the low levels of virus ticking over until another wave starts. That said, if this is the end then I don’t think we’ll see restrictions anywhere. It’ll be painted as a success because “only” however many hundreds of people died and this is just the cost of business.

Grim stuff.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 25, 2021, 11:52:09 AM
The spikes can’t continue indefinitely.

Remind me, how long has flu been spiking every winter? (Except last year, for very relevant reasons.)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on July 25, 2021, 11:59:38 AM
Flu has significant advantages for being able evade existing immunity on an annual basis that coronaviruses in general do not, if we're looking for reasons to be optimistic.

(Although ensuring that we build large reservoirs amongst both the young and the global south seem like a decent start at levelling the playing field.)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 25, 2021, 12:27:17 PM
Remind me, how long has flu been spiking every winter? (Except last year, for very relevant reasons.)

Sorry, I didn’t word that clearly - spikes will keep happening, but the individual spikes themselves cannot continue to grow exponentially and indefinitely because you eventually run out of people and while there will always be some transmissibility, everyone in the country isn’t meeting everyone else in the country every single day so there’s a daily infection limit at some point.

I was making the point that a line going up can’t go up forever, basically, so each spike must have an end point, so what determines that.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 25, 2021, 12:34:50 PM
Sorry, I didn’t word that clearly - spikes will keep happening, but the individual spikes themselves cannot continue to grow exponentially and indefinitely because you eventually run out of people and while there will always be some transmissibility, everyone in the country isn’t meeting everyone else in the country every single day so there’s a daily infection limit at some point.

I was making the point that a line going up can’t go up forever, basically, so each spike must have an end point, so what determines that.

but it can become asymptotically stable (it won't)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: katzenjammer on July 25, 2021, 02:01:26 PM
but it can become asymptotically stable (it won't)

Is it possible and had anyone considers engineering it to be? I’m guessing this would be a terrible idea by the way
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Milo on July 25, 2021, 02:05:40 PM
What you've got there is Snowpiercer but with viruses rather than climate change.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 25, 2021, 04:51:55 PM
Is it possible and had anyone considers engineering it to be? I’m guessing this would be a terrible idea by the way

Plenty of papers - skim reading, the last one may be the easiest to read.

https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2021278?viewType=HTML (https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2021278?viewType=HTML)

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32989381/ (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32989381/)

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211379720321203 (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211379720321203)

https://advancesindifferenceequations.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s13662-020-02958-6 (https://advancesindifferenceequations.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s13662-020-02958-6)

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphy.2021.634251/full (https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphy.2021.634251/full)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Barry Admin on July 25, 2021, 05:33:25 PM
I'm presuming this thread is about a third wave.

My Mum's been telling me today about the calls going out from the hospital's here. Two of them are asking extra staff to come in, and she says it's the first time she's seen that in ages. Everyone getting dressed up in full PPE again too.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on July 26, 2021, 08:04:07 AM
It's about whether there will be any further lockdown in 2021.

Seems as long as the under 30s drag their heels getting jabbed, there's every chance this will require some further steps to hopefully quash it. Shame we run out of Moderna and Pfizer just when things are opening up.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 26, 2021, 09:12:20 AM
450 dead in the UK last week, 59% up on previous 7 days. At same rate of growth we are back to around 100+ dead a day very soon.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on July 26, 2021, 09:20:59 AM
Yes, I realised its not a testing thing the next day when I was told it wasn't a testing thing.

It would be odd that Freedom day results in the end of the wave - unless Delta has burned out? (as you say). This is where wastewater data will be critical. That showed a massive spike over the last 7 days across all regions after a strange dip and plateau the preceding week(s) [across majority of regions, NE had a shorter dip more lately]

Potentially schools/universities starting summer holidays? Although I think it's a little soon for that to be showing up, primary schools round here have only just broken up.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Old Thrashbarg on July 26, 2021, 10:40:23 AM
The Euros seem to have been the main driver of the surge in infections, with noticeable peaks in cases, particularly amoungst younger age groups and males, four days after each England game. And now, since the conclusion, cases are dropping.

The thread starting at https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1419427681440043008 is a reasonable summary of that data. With the following demonstrating the impact of the final:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E7LV3AcXIAMLxQk?format=png&name=small)

The impact of the easing of restrictions against the impact of schools closing is probably yet to be seen.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 26, 2021, 04:54:25 PM
https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1419683023193247744?s=19

Here's the latest on hospital admissions

Never been so unsure what's happening or going to happen now.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 27, 2021, 04:16:58 PM
131 deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported today. Cases going down (23,511 reported today) but so is testing (810,459 tests reported yesterday).
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on July 27, 2021, 05:23:05 PM
I don't think the reduced testing can explain the fall in cases though. I'm a bit astonished by how rapid cases are dropping off.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on July 27, 2021, 05:37:39 PM
I think people have just had enough of covid
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 27, 2021, 06:41:48 PM
I don't think the reduced testing can explain the fall in cases though. I'm a bit astonished by how rapid cases are dropping off.

Spikes seem to fall as quickly as they rise[1]. It’s very odd.
 1. though they keep a long tail so a low level of cases rumbles on
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Huxleys Babkins on July 27, 2021, 07:19:56 PM
I suspect the sheer number of people who’ve been double jabbed or have already had it means that most getting it now don’t realise it and are carrying on as normal and putting any symptoms down to a cold or hay fever and therefore not getting tested. Add to that the ignorant twats who have the “classic” symptoms but don’t give a fuck/are in denial and are not getting tested either.

So you’re effectively left with those having to lateral flow for work/travel/leisure, those who have the “classic” symptoms who do report and those who end up hospitalised as the only people staying on the radar.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 27, 2021, 07:45:14 PM
B.1.621 for the autumn wave
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on July 27, 2021, 07:59:48 PM
Can I recommend another cool name for it?

EFD variant.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: chveik on July 27, 2021, 09:14:52 PM
just GET COVID DONE for fucks sake
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Theremin on July 27, 2021, 09:24:56 PM
OPEN THE PUBS
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on July 27, 2021, 11:32:37 PM
I suspect the sheer number of people who’ve been double jabbed or have already had it means that most getting it now don’t realise it and are carrying on as normal and putting any symptoms down to a cold or hay fever and therefore not getting tested. Add to that the ignorant twats who have the “classic” symptoms but don’t give a fuck/are in denial and are not getting tested either.

None of that has really changed though, except the number of people vaccinated. And that's been dropping for awhile. Although I haven't tried to count the delay before that has an effect in.

My problem is it's the first time we've had a peak that couldn't be timed to a lockdown - cases are going down without tighter restrictions being imposed. I'd guess if I knew how to do the maths this could be predicted from the vaccine reducing transmission.

An peak not linked to lock down does give hope we're done with lockdown.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Huxleys Babkins on July 28, 2021, 07:40:24 AM
None of that has really changed though, except the number of people vaccinated. And that's been dropping for awhile. Although I haven't tried to count the delay before that has an effect in.

My problem is it's the first time we've had a peak that couldn't be timed to a lockdown - cases are going down without tighter restrictions being imposed. I'd guess if I knew how to do the maths this could be predicted from the vaccine reducing transmission.

An peak not linked to lock down does give hope we're done with lockdown.

Even though vaccination numbers are going down, the vast majority of those still not vaccinated are young people and we know that severity of symptoms reduces with age. We also know that the delta strain, whilst more infectious, generally comes with different, less severe symptoms and therefore won’t necessarily prompt people to test.

Without wanting to jump the gun as we’re still a few days out from seeing what the effects of “Freedom Day” are, this does very much feel like how I’m expecting “living with the virus” to feel like.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on July 28, 2021, 09:01:42 AM
We also know that the delta strain, whilst more infectious, generally comes with different, less severe symptoms and therefore won’t necessarily prompt people to test.

Not sure about less severe symptoms - perhaps symptoms that make it more likely to be mistaken for a cold in its milder form. There are symptoms in some patients that have been reported to be noticeably worse than earlier variants, including hearing loss, greater gastrointestinal issues and an increased risk of blood clots.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Huxleys Babkins on July 28, 2021, 09:34:12 AM
Less severe in the vast majority of cases, though, which is what's keeping the numbers down. Even with those symptoms you've mentioned, you wouldn't automatically think "I must get tested" if you suffered hearing loss or stomach pain without any of the "usual" symptoms.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 28, 2021, 09:54:50 AM
At this point numbers in hospital are the thing to focus on, even if the infections get no higher than 20,000 a day from here, the feed through continues, the NHS breaking point threshold is lower than winter due to staff absences and demand in other areas.

The death toll yesterday was the worst for months yet covered over by the general euphoria over the dip in infections.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on July 28, 2021, 12:47:25 PM
At this point numbers in hospital are the thing to focus on, even if the infections get no higher than 20,000 a day from here, the feed through continues, the NHS breaking point threshold is lower than winter due to staff absences and demand in other areas.

The death toll yesterday was the worst for months yet covered over by the general euphoria over the dip in infections.

This seems unnecessarily negative. There are about 5k patients in hospital, compared to 40k in January. New admissions should start to drop soon, assuming it tracks cases. The number of people in hospital has gone up by 1300 in the last week. Even if admission stay at current levels, it would take 6 months to reach the January level.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 28, 2021, 01:03:16 PM
And hospitalizations lag cases by a week or two from what I’ve seen, so if anything you’d expect them to decline along with deaths (as long as cases keep dropping). It seems like this wave is receding, but who knows if it’ll be the last one.

Also worth noting if you take the start of this wave to be mid June, the UK has doled out 11m vaccines since then (and gained protection from 8m more that were given in early June that needed two weeks to build immunity), on top of however many hundreds of thousands of resolved cases. That’s a lot of additional protection in the general population.

I doubt there will be more waves like this, and I doubt even more that the government will do anything about them in future - hospitals have survived and Joe public has determined not enough people going in the ground to change behaviour so I think this is what living with the virus looks like. As boosters come along and more people get their first/second shots, they will get less and less impactful (if they occur at all).
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on July 28, 2021, 01:25:47 PM
Really hope the uptake of flu vaccinations is high this year as well, as there are concerns that low prevalence over the past months could lead to a drop in immunity among the population, and flu stretched the NHS most winters even pre-pandemic.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 28, 2021, 01:33:11 PM
Still, you have to laugh.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmkiCUWWMAMfUV5.jpg)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on July 28, 2021, 06:24:56 PM
This seems unnecessarily negative. There are about 5k patients in hospital, compared to 40k in January. New admissions should start to drop soon, assuming it tracks cases. The number of people in hospital has gone up by 1300 in the last week. Even if admission stay at current levels, it would take 6 months to reach the January level.

It doesnt have to reach January levels or even close to. NHS breaking point is dependent on staffing levels and what else is affecting the service. It's well publicised what the current issues are and the service is currently less capable of dealing with an influx, anecdotally staff are already reporting that it feels like how it was in January. A continuing rise to 10,000+ through the next 4 weeks and that becomes a critical problem.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Milo on July 28, 2021, 06:33:36 PM
if you suffered hearing loss

Hearing loss is one? Shit, I've been using Otex because the telly has been seeming really quiet on the usual volume and I assumed my ears were a bit clogged.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Bernice on July 28, 2021, 07:24:17 PM
Ha, had the same reaction on reading this before and instantly did a lateral flow test. I don't think it's a particularly common symptom.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 28, 2021, 08:34:44 PM
Hearing loss is one? Shit, I've been using Otex because the telly has been seeming really quiet on the usual volume and I assumed my ears were a bit clogged.

what's that?

Love the eternal optimism on here. There will be another wave. The severity of which may be less but when co-mingled with your norovirus and your influenza A, a dark winter awaits the weak and vulnerable... goodbye folks.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on July 28, 2021, 08:45:43 PM
What's the efficiency of the flu jabs?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 28, 2021, 10:24:11 PM
What's the efficiency of the flu jabs?

Effectiveness varies from year to year, but has ranged from 10% to 60%, with an average around 40%.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: purlieu on July 28, 2021, 10:50:32 PM
Hearing loss is one? Shit, I've been using Otex because the telly has been seeming really quiet on the usual volume and I assumed my ears were a bit clogged.
I know of an independent musician who's basically had to call it a day on his career because of Covid-related hearing loss. It was the first I'd heard of it, but it was an eye opener, especially given that my tinnitus came from a very bad cold.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on July 29, 2021, 08:50:48 AM
I still have tinnitus from Covid last year and it's really annoying at times. The long Covid symptom reporting surveys put some level of it or some degree of hearing loss at about 20% of cases.

There hasn't been a great deal of research into Covid related hearing problems so far. Suggestions of what is happening include direct damage by the virus because of the presence of ACE2 receptors in the ear, damage from the immune system response, it depleting a chemical needed to maintain the hair cells and damage to the neural pathway to the ear.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: The Mollusk on July 29, 2021, 10:09:51 AM
Love the eternal optimism on here. There will be another wave. The severity of which may be less but when co-mingled with your norovirus and your influenza A, a dark winter awaits the weak and vulnerable... goodbye folks.

Honestly man I love you but you are quite relentlessly and brutally negative in your composure on this subforum. Like, I get it, your concerns are very much real and valid and but when combined with thick-skinned facetiousness it is quite exhausting for the casual reader. I know it's hard to dial that stuff back but if you could try I'd appreciate it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Echo Valley 2-6809 on July 29, 2021, 10:30:07 AM
There will be another wave. The severity of which may be less but when co-mingled with your norovirus and your influenza A, a dark winter awaits the weak and vulnerable...
(https://i.imgur.com/TFAjW6j.png)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 29, 2021, 11:19:01 AM
what's that?

Love the eternal optimism on here. There will be another wave. The severity of which may be less but when co-mingled with your norovirus and your influenza A, a dark winter awaits the weak and vulnerable... goodbye folks.

If this thread looks like eternal optimism then existing in the UK must bleaker than I suspected.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on July 29, 2021, 02:14:41 PM
I have days like that and days where I get torn a new one for being too optimistic :)  Covid has been pretty wild for mood swings.  It doesn't help the number of times that (I probably overdo this analogy) the light at the end of the tunnel has turned out to be a freight train on collision course.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 29, 2021, 02:33:35 PM
I’m guessing this time it actually is a light at the tunnel. This wave is unique, in that it’s the first one that hasn’t put a load of people in the hospital or in the morgue[1].

There is also a huge increase in protection in the population via mass vaccination and resolved cases even since June, and that has probably put the kibosh on this UK wave as much as anything else. I think if cases are declining even though all restrictions are gone and the euros happened, then I don’t see a spike happening again without a significantly new variant.

I look forward to being proved wrong of course, but I reckon optimism is a reasonable outlook at this point. Just my opinion, other opinions are available.
 1. yes, people are dying and needing medical care, but at massively reduced rates
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on July 29, 2021, 03:00:26 PM
I'm running with "cautious optimism" at the moment.  If it was going to hit 200k/day then this would be worrying as it goes back to "strain on the hospitals" territory, but so far even the less optimistic ZOE figure is at least leveling off, if not showing a slight decrease.  It's all to play for in the coming days as the "Freedom Day" effect hits and it could still go to shit, hence the caution, but I think it would've shown up on ZOE by now if so.  Estimates were it'd show up in the government figures by about Friday.

Who knows what will happen when the schools go back.  Unless we start jabbing children it's pretty inevitable it'll spread around them IMO but hopefully just similar localised "Mexican Waves" to what we've been seeing and virtually no one in hospital.

Flu... hmmm... some argue that immune systems are weakened due to all the avoidance of viruses and stuff like that will spread like mad.  I'm not sure, I don't know enough but would hypothesise that all this vaccination we've been doing has been generally keeping immune systems going!  And with a bit of luck if covid, flu or even colds start circulating around that time, enough people will be wearing masks and practicing hand hygiene to keep it under control.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 29, 2021, 03:02:05 PM
Mind you, we have open travel with a plague-province that has just determined that if you test positive (via hospitalization, the only way to get a test after August in the province because they are closing all their testing centres), there are no restrictions. They will recommend you stay home, but you can go wherever you like while knowingly having the virus.

Mad old world isn’t it.

The full litany of bonkers policy is here (https://www.alberta.ca/release.cfm?xID=7962654912AD7-EFD7-89F5-1AA4E31447E892D2) if anyone fancies a look.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: chveik on July 29, 2021, 03:18:46 PM


no offence but you were saying the same thing and being cautiously optimistic ages ago iirc.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on July 29, 2021, 03:37:51 PM
no offence but you were saying the same thing and being cautiously optimistic ages ago iirc.

Hmm possibly? I try and stay optimistic on the basis that it makes no external difference but makes life happier, and some of the doom-takes in this thread and elsewhere have been miles off the mark.

We will see how accurate my preddo is I guess, but I feel fairly confident about it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 29, 2021, 05:03:12 PM
Once the plague is over, then there will be war.

Once the war is over, there will be a great famine.

Once the famine is over, the world will burn, choke and drown.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: drummersaredeaf on July 29, 2021, 05:39:49 PM
But after that it will be ok?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: vanilla.coffee on July 29, 2021, 06:24:40 PM
(https://www.irishcentral.com/uploads/article-v2/2020/8/140916/cropped_enya___getty.jpg?t=1597690763)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Milo on July 29, 2021, 06:43:39 PM
what's that?

I SAID HEARING LOSS

I wonder if the message should be if you get any sort of unusual symptom you should test. Although it's quite a rare day that I don't have at least one of the symptoms on the zoe app questionnaire.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: stonkers on July 29, 2021, 06:44:21 PM
I’m guessing this time it actually is a light at the tunnel. This wave is unique, in that it’s the first one that hasn’t put a load of people in the hospital or in the morgue[1].
 1. yes, people are dying and needing medical care, but at massively reduced rates

I think there's a lot of talking at cross purposes and different expectations of what the end looks like. Once you've vaxxed as many people as you reasonably can then what more can you do? OK, masks in certain settings long term, fair enough, that's been common in China, Japan etc. for ages, at least seasonally. But criminalising social contact and shutting borders is not justifiable at a certain point once you have vaxxed enough people, particularly if you have high vaccine coverage among the most vulnerable.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Bernice on July 29, 2021, 08:52:59 PM
Once the plague is over, then there will be war.

Once the war is over, there will be a great famine.

Once the famine is over, the world will burn, choke and drown.
(https://external-preview.redd.it/Fnkh-B6ZuQai8gMlQFeHCEvciM-I_Y2rY-c5WShEg7I.jpg?auto=webp&s=51acab9ae568c1c5bc5a49ef554d02775009d5c2)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Rainbow Moses on July 29, 2021, 09:11:37 PM
Once the plague is over, then there will be war.

Once the war is over, there will be a great famine.

Once the famine is over, the world will burn, choke and drown.

Do you just not come with an off switch? At least write like a semi-normal person for a change.

The idea that you work for SAGE worries me.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bomb_dog on July 29, 2021, 09:26:26 PM
As my dear old dead Nan would say, “it’s being so cheerful keeps him going”.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: chveik on July 29, 2021, 10:00:52 PM
Do you just not come with an off switch? At least write like a semi-normal person for a change.

The idea that you work for SAGE worries me.

try the ignore list you buffoon
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 29, 2021, 10:14:51 PM
Do you just not come with an off switch? At least write like a semi-normal person for a change.

The idea that you work for SAGE worries me.

Oh do please fuck off

Explain to me why its so objectionable or shut up with your personal attacks.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 29, 2021, 10:16:38 PM
As my dear old dead Nan would say, “it’s being so cheerful keeps him going”.

I am cheerful. Blind ignorance will be the death of rainbow moses. Wilful ignorance.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 29, 2021, 10:18:08 PM
I dont work for Sage and why would it worry you. This is s fucking comedy forum not Nature
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: thelittlemango on July 29, 2021, 10:42:31 PM
People complaining about negativity in a thread called 'The Final FUCKDOWN' is quite funny though.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 30, 2021, 01:30:43 AM
Do you just not come with an off switch? At least write like a semi-normal person for a change.

The idea that you work for SAGE worries me.

Yeah you'd think someone working this government would be pretty happy and positive overall.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on July 30, 2021, 02:20:25 AM
It's true though, in general you want people working on risk assessment for major catastrophes to be on the optimistic side.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: chveik on July 30, 2021, 02:21:33 AM
nah you want them to be competent
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: confettiinmyhair on July 30, 2021, 07:59:20 AM
I've long suspected Blodwyn is Carrie Symonds.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 30, 2021, 10:31:30 AM
It's true though, in general you want people working on risk assessment for major catastrophes to be on the optimistic side.

No, I don't think that's true at all. Risk assessment ought to be about preparing for the worst, not hoping for the best. Look at where the latter approach has got us.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on July 30, 2021, 01:22:28 PM
*whoosh*

Don't worry, it happens to everyone
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on July 30, 2021, 01:46:27 PM
In my defence, the evidence of millions of comments from across the internet shows that recognising sarcasm is near impossible.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 30, 2021, 03:20:07 PM
I've long suspected Blodwyn is Carrie Symonds.

If only ;)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on July 30, 2021, 03:57:36 PM
nah you want them to be competent
No, I don't think that's true at all. Risk assessment ought to be about preparing for the worst, not hoping for the best. Look at where the latter approach has got us.

Funnily enough, I’m scoping a response to a specific scenario posited in the “We’re all fucked” thread in GB (the one where the British Isles are one of the few habitable places left on Earth) that I hope people will find interesting and informative. I just need to find time to sit down with a laptop and write it, no way am I trying to do it on an iPhone…
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: monkfromhavana on July 30, 2021, 03:57:58 PM
I've long suspected Blodwyn is Carrie Symonds.

Given his love of rooting around in poo, I thought Gillian McKeith would be a better bet.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cold Meat Platter on July 30, 2021, 04:52:53 PM
Given his love of rooting around in poo

I think he's fallen out of love for it. He's just going through the motions at this point.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: monkfromhavana on July 30, 2021, 06:16:53 PM
I think he's fallen out of love for it. He's just going through the motions at this point.

He was getting a bit BOGged down with all the (loo) paper work.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on July 30, 2021, 07:20:19 PM
Everyone in this thread loves covid negativity don't they? I thought it was why we're all here?

Anyway on that subject Sage published a covid impacts report, moving forward, today and they say its 'realistically possible' there will be a variant with near 100% vaccine avoiding ability that would put us straight back to where we were in March last year.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E7jEqF6XsAw8k-U?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: chveik on July 30, 2021, 07:37:13 PM
Everyone in this thread loves covid negativity don't they? I thought it was why we're all here?

quite, there's no false advertisement
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on July 30, 2021, 08:04:21 PM
Yes, it’s not like the thread is called

Hooray! Another Lockdown - or as I like to call it, LOCKFUN
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on July 30, 2021, 10:01:09 PM
I regret coining the word fuckdown. I feel I almost went mental over the last year but now it's over, and I still have two eyes, I just want to forget all about it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on July 31, 2021, 10:04:48 AM
It was a difficult time, Cheds. Don’t feel bad. Having that Long Fuckdown Remorse is miles better than having Long COVID.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on July 31, 2021, 10:16:14 AM
Anyway on that subject Sage published a covid impacts report, moving forward, today and they say its 'realistically possible' there will be a variant with near 100% vaccine avoiding ability that would put us straight back to where we were in March last year.
Let's not borrow trouble, eh?

They've presented that in an annoying way. It's reasonable likely that a spike protein from a common virus gets copied. The impact is bad if it's a spike protein from a rare virus.

I'm not sure if the latter scenario is any more likely because of covid. There are always millions of strains of viruses circulating, and there is always a risk a new one will emerge which is effective at spreading and there is little latent immunity to.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on July 31, 2021, 10:46:09 AM
Daily Mail is reporting a SAGE advisor as saying that we should cull all cats just to be on the safe side.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 31, 2021, 11:02:19 AM
Daily Mail is reporting a SAGE advisor as saying that we should cull all cats just to be on the safe side.

Good to see a lot of anti-scientist sentiment creeping into this thread now (not you Steveh, I assume the above was parody).
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on July 31, 2021, 11:10:09 AM
Let's not borrow trouble, eh?


Actually yes lets.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on July 31, 2021, 11:33:19 AM
Good to see a lot of anti-scientist sentiment creeping into this thread now (not you Steveh, I assume the above was parody).

Culling cats is what the Mail is actually reporting, although unless I've missed it there's no mention of this in the original report, which from discussion on Twitter seems to be unreviewed hypotheticals from one SAGE subcommittee.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-26-july-2021
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on July 31, 2021, 11:43:59 AM
Culling cats is what the Mail is actually reporting, although unless I've missed it there's no mention of this in the original report, which from discussion on Twitter seems to be unreviewed hypotheticals from one SAGE subcommittee.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-26-july-2021

This bit?

Quote
Monitor for reverse zoonoses and if necessary, consider animal vaccination,
slaughter, or isolation policies.

Herding cat immunity?

edit: also notes 36 and 37
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on July 31, 2021, 11:51:38 AM
Ah yes, though from the general context it comes across more like something for consideration with things like mink farms, rather than the evil government scientists coming for Tiddles as the Mail claims.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: The Mollusk on July 31, 2021, 12:11:53 PM
Oh do please fuck off

Explain to me why its so objectionable or shut up with your personal attacks.

Read your own posts compared to everyone else’s. You’re not the sane voice of reason with a wry smile in the corner, you’re not Quint running his fingernails down the chalkboard, you’re the tedious voice of despair. In my previous post which you ignored, I observed that your tone is one of excessive facetiousness and I can see some shred of humorous intent behind the barrage of bleakness, but it’s still intensely overwhelming even then. Like, I love Wonder Showzen but I wouldn’t choose to eat a whole sheet of acid and binge watch both seasons. You don’t seem to have any way of regulating your posts about this stuff (and speaking as someone who has immense difficulty regulating emotional response, I can relate), and when challenged about it you’re boorish and insensitive. It’s very unpleasant.

Even though this subforum was originally created so that people didn’t have to be subjected to COVID news/chat in the other subs, 18 months down the line when “living with the virus” is a concept floating about in the great British subconscious, more and more people are going to become casual readers of this sub for news, developments, whatever, and everyone is going to see this one guy who’s just constantly like WE ARE FUCKED, KISS YOUR FAMILIES GOODBYE. You might think that stuff is darkly amusing but to me and I dare say a good number of others it’s an absolute chore.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on July 31, 2021, 12:24:52 PM
The tedious voice of despair probably comes from the fact that he is actually doing work that is related to this pandemic and knows more than we do?

Easier to be happy and positive when you're ignorant I suppose.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: The Mollusk on July 31, 2021, 12:41:19 PM
I don't really think that excuse cuts it. My fiancee works for a disaster response charity alongside the government and for the last 18 months she's been coordinating international aid response programs for COVID, including a 5 week period last year where she was deployed overseas to help directly oversee one such program. She's entrenched in this stuff and also has to suffer the incremental shitshow of funding cuts to overseas aid which immediately and directly affects the tireless work efforts of herself and her company. Alongside all this, she's had to cope with not being able to see her elderly and physically disabled parents for extended periods of time during the worst of the lockdowns (where before she'd visit once or twice a week). In spite of all this, she is a continually strong-willed, pragmatic and loving person with an endless resolve to make things better and to compassionately understand the plight of others.

I know this:

It's true though, in general you want people working on risk assessment for major catastrophes to be on the optimistic side.

was intended as sarcasm, but it's compassion that works in these roles, not optimism. Optimism can be - and often is - a fruitless endeavour, but you've got to try and understand what other people are going through. If you're constantly jumping on the internet to be like BAD STATISTICS, LOL GRANNY'S GONNA DIE, BEER AND A BURGER during a global pandemic which has ravaged the physical and mental health conditions of millions of people worldwide, with almost no trace of irony visible to the casual reader who doesn't realise you're actually the forum king of black comedy, your levels of compassion need some work.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on July 31, 2021, 01:03:08 PM
Daily Mail is reporting a SAGE advisor as saying that we should cull all cats just to be on the safe side.

Because that helped so much during the Black Death (which the Mail probably has an infobox on, explaining to the readership that it was so-called because people caught it from black people).
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on July 31, 2021, 03:26:38 PM
Daily Mail is reporting a SAGE advisor as saying that we should cull all cats just to be on the safe side.

Sudden surge of interest in the environs of Hartlepool, “get out the ropes Steve!”.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on July 31, 2021, 03:30:09 PM
I don't really think that excuse cuts it. My fiancee works for a disaster response charity alongside the government and for the last 18 months she's been coordinating international aid response programs for COVID, including a 5 week period last year where she was deployed overseas to help directly oversee one such program. She's entrenched in this stuff and also has to suffer the incremental shitshow of funding cuts to overseas aid which immediately and directly affects the tireless work efforts of herself and her company. Alongside all this, she's had to cope with not being able to see her elderly and physically disabled parents for extended periods of time during the worst of the lockdowns (where before she'd visit once or twice a week). In spite of all this, she is a continually strong-willed, pragmatic and loving person with an endless resolve to make things better and to compassionately understand the plight of others.

I know this:

was intended as sarcasm, but it's compassion that works in these roles, not optimism. Optimism can be - and often is - a fruitless endeavour, but you've got to try and understand what other people are going through. If you're constantly jumping on the internet to be like BAD STATISTICS, LOL GRANNY'S GONNA DIE, BEER AND A BURGER during a global pandemic which has ravaged the physical and mental health conditions of millions of people worldwide, with almost no trace of irony visible to the casual reader who doesn't realise you're actually the forum king of black comedy, your levels of compassion need some work.

Perhaps we need different threads then, one for sharing, support and empathy and another, this one, for brutal honest appraisal of how things may well go. Personally I want to know how bad it might get as I’m risk averse and tend to plan for the worst.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on July 31, 2021, 05:30:21 PM
Perhaps we need different threads then, one for sharing, support and empathy and another, this one, for brutal honest appraisal of how things may well go. Personally I want to know how bad it might get as I’m risk averse and tend to plan for the worst.

Spot on. I feel the same.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: thelittlemango on July 31, 2021, 11:02:18 PM
I don't really think that excuse cuts it. My fiancee works for a disaster response charity alongside the government and for the last 18 months she's been coordinating international aid response programs for COVID, including a 5 week period last year where she was deployed overseas to help directly oversee one such program. She's entrenched in this stuff and also has to suffer the incremental shitshow of funding cuts to overseas aid which immediately and directly affects the tireless work efforts of herself and her company. Alongside all this, she's had to cope with not being able to see her elderly and physically disabled parents for extended periods of time during the worst of the lockdowns (where before she'd visit once or twice a week). In spite of all this, she is a continually strong-willed, pragmatic and loving person with an endless resolve to make things better and to compassionately understand the plight of others.


No offence, your fiancee sounds like she's doing sterling work under great pressure, but it's not really relevant in this case when comparing to The Blodwyn Pig.

One is in disaster relief, dealing with the after effects of covid 19 and managing that, and the other is on the analysis side and first-hand studying rates of infection in the general publics rancid turds in various parts of the UK on a daily basis.

It makes sense that your fiancee has a more positive viewpoint as that is beneficial in that role, but Blodwyn is involved in data and trends and so there's little scope to give a positive outlook if all signs are pointing towards various shades of fuckdown.

And this is from someone who is still embarrassed on Blodwyn's behalf for his Buelligan-esque flounce during Mafia.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on August 01, 2021, 09:55:31 AM
Read your own posts compared to everyone else’s. You’re not the sane voice of reason with a wry smile in the corner, you’re not Quint running his fingernails down the chalkboard, you’re the tedious voice of despair. In my previous post which you ignored, I observed that your tone is one of excessive facetiousness and I can see some shred of humorous intent behind the barrage of bleakness, but it’s still intensely overwhelming even then. Like, I love Wonder Showzen but I wouldn’t choose to eat a whole sheet of acid and binge watch both seasons. You don’t seem to have any way of regulating your posts about this stuff (and speaking as someone who has immense difficulty regulating emotional response, I can relate), and when challenged about it you’re boorish and insensitive. It’s very unpleasant.

Even though this subforum was originally created so that people didn’t have to be subjected to COVID news/chat in the other subs, 18 months down the line when “living with the virus” is a concept floating about in the great British subconscious, more and more people are going to become casual readers of this sub for news, developments, whatever, and everyone is going to see this one guy who’s just constantly like WE ARE FUCKED, KISS YOUR FAMILIES GOODBYE. You might think that stuff is darkly amusing but to me and I dare say a good number of others it’s an absolute chore.

I don't write for others to enjoy or hate. So take of it what you will. But don't preach to me. I hate it. The aloof posturing is boring. I write the posts for myself and no-one else. So call in the attack dogs and skip my posts.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on August 01, 2021, 09:59:53 AM
The tedious voice of despair probably comes from the fact that he is actually doing work that is related to this pandemic and knows more than we do?

Easier to be happy and positive when you're ignorant I suppose.

The funny thing is, I feel no despair about COVID. We're on a long journey out, there will be far fewer deaths. It is what comes after that will be the real danger. The slip into totalitarianism that we are already seeing - the battle lines drawn down many issues. Climate change and inevitable war will do for us. Disease is just one other symptom of a collapsing Earth. We can address these at a local or regional scale, but I don't see any real efforts at national or global scales. Stop tub-thumping about China and Russia, stop giving voices to climate change deniers, anti-vaxxers, destroy Rupert Murdoch and anything that will come in his wake. Overthrow the Australian government.

Not going to happen very easily. Find happiness in your own way.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on August 01, 2021, 10:01:26 AM
I don't really think that excuse cuts it. My fiancee works for a disaster response charity alongside the government and for the last 18 months she's been coordinating international aid response programs for COVID, including a 5 week period last year where she was deployed overseas to help directly oversee one such program. She's entrenched in this stuff and also has to suffer the incremental shitshow of funding cuts to overseas aid which immediately and directly affects the tireless work efforts of herself and her company. Alongside all this, she's had to cope with not being able to see her elderly and physically disabled parents for extended periods of time during the worst of the lockdowns (where before she'd visit once or twice a week). In spite of all this, she is a continually strong-willed, pragmatic and loving person with an endless resolve to make things better and to compassionately understand the plight of others.

I know this:

was intended as sarcasm, but it's compassion that works in these roles, not optimism. Optimism can be - and often is - a fruitless endeavour, but you've got to try and understand what other people are going through. If you're constantly jumping on the internet to be like BAD STATISTICS, LOL GRANNY'S GONNA DIE, BEER AND A BURGER during a global pandemic which has ravaged the physical and mental health conditions of millions of people worldwide, with almost no trace of irony visible to the casual reader who doesn't realise you're actually the forum king of black comedy, your levels of compassion need some work.

I am compassionate. if you met me in person, I would be compassionate. find your own way, my friend.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on August 01, 2021, 10:09:05 AM
No offence, your fiancee sounds like she's doing sterling work under great pressure, but it's not really relevant in this case when comparing to The Blodwyn Pig.

One is in disaster relief, dealing with the after effects of covid 19 and managing that, and the other is on the analysis side and first-hand studying rates of infection in the general publics rancid turds in various parts of the UK on a daily basis.

It makes sense that your fiancee has a more positive viewpoint as that is beneficial in that role, but Blodwyn is involved in data and trends and so there's little scope to give a positive outlook if all signs are pointing towards various shades of fuckdown.

And this is from someone who is still embarrassed on Blodwyn's behalf for his Buelligan-esque flounce during Mafia.

Yes, Mollusk's fiancee is indeed to be applauded. I am not splurging out what I really do on here, but its far more than just data analysis. We (that is a big We) have worked tirelessly in delivering an array of knowledge and support to decision-makers in the UK and internationally, from sampling strategies, to lab analysis methods, to modelling. Most of the time this was at a hare's pace and there were mistakes made, or we were ignored by higher-ups. Now those higher-ups are confident there is no need for our input and are choking the funding, so we are having to work harder than ever to demonstrate the worth of the programme beyond the pandemic - which is where it will be truly revolutionary for a range of stressors (pathogenic, mental health, antimicrobial resistance etc). The EU are doing similar work on their Sentinel system. That is where the optimism lies, having massive buy in from public and private sectors has been amazing. the new SOS, however, is apparently trying to torpedo this. but what I have found amazing, is that no-one hangs their heads and gives up, the CS is remarkably adaptable and adept in reimagining purpose as a noose gets tighter. So there is a lot of positivity in general. I really hope that this positivity and passion filters upwards. MH*nc*ck would have been so much better in ensuring delivery, for all his failings.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jfjnpxmy on August 01, 2021, 04:30:30 PM
The tedious voice of despair probably comes from the fact that he is actually doing work that is related to this pandemic and knows more than we do?


Fairly obviously isn't and doesn't, though. He's never demonstrated knowledge above a "reasonably smart bloke who's skimmed an abstract" level, and whenever anyone asks him for actual insight or analysis he immediately disappears into a puff of obtuse nonsense or goes all "woah mate top secret more than my job's worth", since his role apparently hits the incredibly specific band of secrecy where constant doomy hints and namedropping are fine, but actually saying anything is verboten..

He's just Some Cunt. Crazy that he's suckered so many ostensibly clever folks.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: BlodwynPig on August 01, 2021, 06:13:57 PM
Fairly obviously isn't and doesn't, though. He's never demonstrated knowledge above a "reasonably smart bloke who's skimmed an abstract" level, and whenever anyone asks him for actual insight or analysis he immediately disappears into a puff of obtuse nonsense or goes all "woah mate top secret more than my job's worth", since his role apparently hits the incredibly specific band of secrecy where constant doomy hints and namedropping are fine, but actually saying anything is verboten..

He's just Some Cunt. Crazy that he's suckered so many ostensibly clever folks.

What the fuck is this? This is offensive. Apologise. If this was a major scientific conference or even a symposium, I'd understand, but last time I looked, no-one was paying me to do a job here. I post what I feel like, and I'm not arsed otherwise, I'm too tired doing my proper job to pander to the sensitivities of your ilk. If you don't like it fine, I accept that, but to get personal like this is abhorrent. Horrible stuff.

That stuff in bold is brutal and in reality far from reality. Now please stop this roasting.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on August 01, 2021, 09:31:58 PM
Spotted on facebook:

(https://scontent-lcy1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/p180x540/228885391_10159451664466142_8835213043665509975_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=5rp-LcY1n_gAX8F9N_j&_nc_ht=scontent-lcy1-1.xx&oh=094ba54cfe1c75ba82e87f03bcbe8e67&oe=612BF193)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on August 01, 2021, 09:42:04 PM
hee-hee, that's very good :-)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MrMrs on August 01, 2021, 10:01:50 PM
U OK little baby?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on August 02, 2021, 09:20:20 AM
Overthrow the Australian government.

Any reason why them over any other government?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mobias on August 02, 2021, 02:49:12 PM
Really good short interview with Prof John Edmunds here https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=544376463428144

He makes the interesting point that looking at the bigger picture there's really only been one wave of covid so far and we're coming out of it now.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: evilcommiedictator on August 03, 2021, 05:02:23 AM
Any reason why them over any other government?

"Australian coal burnt overseas creates nearly twice the nation’s domestic emissions"
Quote
Emissions from coal mined in Australia but exported and burnt overseas were almost double the nation’s domestic greenhouse gas footprint in 2020, according to new data.

Australia and Indonesia were the biggest exporters of coal for making steel and burning in power stations, together accounting for 59% of the world’s seaborne coal market.

When countries report their national emissions to the United Nations, only fossil fuels burned domestically are counted. But the impacts of the CO2 on the climate are the same, whether they are burned in Australia or overseas.
A quiet main road in Sydney’s northern beaches in December 2020 during the coronavirus lockdown.
Covid sent Australia’s carbon emissions plummeting in 2020 to lowest levels in 30 years
Read more

Earlier this week the government’s latest emissions data showed greenhouse gas emissions had dropped to a 30-year low of 499Mt of CO2e, thanks mostly to the Covid-19 pandemic and increasing amounts of renewable energy replacing coal.

But the new data, compiled by the UK-based pro-renewables thinktank Ember, says emissions from Australian coal burned overseas released 895Mt of CO2 into the atmosphere, with 460Mt of that coming from coal used in power stations.

Quote
The Climate Change Performance Index ranked Australia last out of 57 countries responsible for more than 90% of greenhouse gas emissions on climate policy.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on August 04, 2021, 08:07:57 AM
Relieved for NHS staff to see the new hospitalisations tailing off a bit. Not the end with autumn and winter on the way but to know it isn't going to reach the heights it could have, and that current activity which is close to being back to normal (+ sensibles wearing masks) is in the next 6 weeks anyway, not going to make anything massively worse.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on August 06, 2021, 08:23:17 PM
Even the one thing Johnson boasts about in parliament and tries to link the Conservative Party to as much as possible isn't going as well as in several countries in the EU: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/06/six-eu-states-overtake-uk-covid-vaccination-britain-rollout-slows
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on August 07, 2021, 04:47:13 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/07/coronavirus-further-covid-lockdowns-in-uk-are-now-unlikely-says-neil-ferguson

Let’s see if he’s right.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on August 08, 2021, 08:11:38 AM
The drop off in UK cases has stopped dropping off and started increasing again so looks like the Euros was a spike within a spike.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Bronzy on August 08, 2021, 10:41:53 AM
(https://img.gifglobe.com/grabs/partridgecloud/S02E02/S02E02-mCqv44BS.jpg)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on August 08, 2021, 12:38:04 PM

Let’s see if he’s right.
he's got to be right once!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on August 08, 2021, 02:06:47 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/07/coronavirus-further-covid-lockdowns-in-uk-are-now-unlikely-says-neil-ferguson

Let’s see if he’s right.

If someone that notoriously pessimistic says they're unlikely, I think we're finally clear.  *touch wood etc*
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on August 08, 2021, 02:10:20 PM
I hope so.

I know I err on the optimistic side in here, but I’m really hopeful we can move towards normality. Not a massive fan of the levelling of UK case numbers though.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on August 08, 2021, 02:12:54 PM
I hope another lockdown won't be needed but I can imagine that masks on public transport and in shops might need to be brought back this winter. It was very stupid of the government to get rid of the mask mandate in the first place given that people who really couldn't wear a mask were exempt. Perhaps if we'd kept masks on public transport and in shops less people might be having to isolate now.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MrMrs on August 09, 2021, 12:08:08 AM
There never was a fucking mandate
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: metaltax on August 09, 2021, 07:46:06 AM
There never was a fucking mandate

I'd like to see your definition of a mandate.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on August 09, 2021, 08:07:25 AM
Two fellas at a restaurant?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jake thunder on August 09, 2021, 10:23:10 AM
Excellent
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on August 09, 2021, 06:13:28 PM
Genuine question cos I don't know but: what's the deaths per day from flu in a bad flu season?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: gib on August 09, 2021, 07:16:52 PM
Quote
In a bad flu year on average around 30,000 people in the UK die from flu and pneumonia

https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/one-year-on-three-myths-about-COVID-19-that-the-data-proved-wrong
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Alberon on August 11, 2021, 11:18:22 PM
COVID 19 is going to be with us for decades. Is it going to be mostly taking its deaths each year from the group most likely to die of flu or are we going to see roughly a doubling of seasonal virus deaths each year?

The family next door were going to France yesterday to visit relatives, but the mother tested positive and today so did their eight year old daughter. Fortunately, they’ve had no symptoms, but it’s really the first time since Mrs Alberon probably had it early last year that it has felt this close to us.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on August 11, 2021, 11:37:59 PM
COVID 19 is going to be with us for decades. Is it going to be mostly taking its deaths each year from the group most likely to die of flu or are we going to see roughly a doubling of seasonal virus deaths each year?
I'd vaguely imagine that if we're lucky it's going to be something closer to the former, but the possibility of simultaneous or sequential infection will add another load of deaths. But we do see considerable variation in "winter" deaths every year already, via luck with flu strains and vaccination to some extent, but also harvesting and the fundamental tendency to produce waves. (This speculation completely ignores how limited the 'ViD vaccines seem to be at containing spread.)

But long-'ViD adds a rather different dimension to all this.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on August 12, 2021, 09:21:54 AM
But long-'ViD adds a rather different dimension to all this.

Is there more long covid than other types of post viral issues?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on August 12, 2021, 09:31:04 AM
Long covid is so badly defined it's basically impossible to give a meaningful answer to that.

(as I've previously mentioned, the coverage of long covid is so bad I struggle not to dismiss it out of hand. Apologies to all those suffering.)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on August 12, 2021, 11:26:58 AM
That definitely seems to be the case.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: thugler on August 12, 2021, 06:00:13 PM
COVID 19 is going to be with us for decades. Is it going to be mostly taking its deaths each year from the group most likely to die of flu or are we going to see roughly a doubling of seasonal virus deaths each year?

How is that going to work? Are people just going to be getting it over and over again? I thought the idea was that we could now update the vaccine for new variants more quickly and give boosters to vulnerable people. Is there no possibility of it being eliminated at least to the extent that it's not a constant concern? I'm not trying to sound flippant, I have friends and family who are struggling to make any antibodies after both jabs for medical reasons so I had hoped they might eventually be able to return to somewhat of a normal life.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on August 12, 2021, 06:26:17 PM
That definitely seems to be the case.

You can just say 'I wish it were the case' or 'the information I have chosen to look at seems to confirm my prejudice'.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on August 12, 2021, 07:15:07 PM
Concern trolling 101 😂😂😂
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Alberon on August 12, 2021, 08:25:45 PM
How is that going to work? Are people just going to be getting it over and over again? I thought the idea was that we could now update the vaccine for new variants more quickly and give boosters to vulnerable people. Is there no possibility of it being eliminated at least to the extent that it's not a constant concern? I'm not trying to sound flippant, I have friends and family who are struggling to make any antibodies after both jabs for medical reasons so I had hoped they might eventually be able to return to somewhat of a normal life.

The problem is that the vaccines as they are don't really seem to stop you catching Covid-19 it just stops it being so severe most of the time. But of course the older you are the less effective most vaccines are.

As I said on the last page the family next door has caught it despite both parents having both jabs. I suppose the rate of transmission is lower, but to what degree I don't know.

As I understand it what we call the flu is actually several different coronaviruses. Covid-19 is just joining them. I haven't a clue what difference it will make to the mortality rate going forward.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on August 12, 2021, 08:29:45 PM
What's the record number of times someone has been infected since the outbreak? Feels like we should find them and humiliate them for being so weak
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on August 12, 2021, 08:31:33 PM
I presume the boffins are still actively working on making the vaccines better, they're not sitting back in their chairs saying 'job done' and lighting cigars with 50s
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on August 12, 2021, 09:35:35 PM
I presume the boffins are still actively working on making the vaccines better, they're not sitting back in their chairs saying 'job done' and lighting cigars with 50s

The pharmaceutical industry's boffins are doubtless working hard on vaccines that protect against the current variants whilst not suppressing the spread of the virus sufficiently to stop it mutating so that we (or the Government, or whoever gives them money) will have to buy more vaccines from them to protect against next year's variants.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on August 12, 2021, 09:39:48 PM
The pharmaceutical industry's boffins are doubtless working hard on vaccines that protect against the current variants whilst not suppressing the spread of the virus sufficiently to stop it mutating so that we (or the Government, or whoever gives them money) will have to buy more vaccines from them to protect against next year's variants.

Heh, yes. I'm glad you said that as now I don't feel as much of a crank for suspecting the same thing.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on August 13, 2021, 04:05:40 AM
We've vaccinated less than a fifth of the world's population so far with the vaccines we already have.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on August 13, 2021, 07:32:42 AM
We've vaccinated less than a fifth of the world's population so far with the vaccines we already have.

Not sure why that makes the idea incompatible.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on August 13, 2021, 07:56:18 AM
Not a direct reply to you or olliebean, though not irrelevant. My thoughts are whatever is done in terms of vaccine development is probably largely irrelevant to "not suppressing the spread of the virus sufficiently" when failures in production and delivery means that there is an absolutely huge churning reservoir of the virus regardless.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on August 13, 2021, 09:24:08 AM
Some kind of anti viral treatment might be next?

Something everyone takes each week, as well as being jabbed, sort of like Ivermectin but obviously approved for use with covid.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on August 13, 2021, 10:21:47 AM
Is there more long covid than other types of post viral issues?

Covid causes damage in basically any organ with ACE2 receptors: lungs, kidneys, heart, lower intestine, brain and neurological pathways, testicles, ears... Unless you've had it very mildly then it will take time for that damage to be repaired. The fatigue part is more difficult to diagnose: some may be due to that organ damage, some may be a post-viral ME-like condition (there have been suggestions of the immune system continuing to try and defeat the virus even though it has gone or the virus lurking in places the immune system can't clear), a few cases may be psychosomatic (though that shouldn't be dismissed either).

I had Covid with moderate symptoms 18 months ago. Last month as part of a health check they found my lung function is still below what it should be though each month it feels like it improves. We're only at the beginning of understanding what Covid does to a body and what the long-term consequences are likely to be.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on August 13, 2021, 10:40:54 AM
The problem is that the vaccines as they are don't really seem to stop you catching Covid-19 it just stops it being so severe most of the time. But of course the older you are the less effective most vaccines are.

As I said on the last page the family next door has caught it despite both parents having both jabs. I suppose the rate of transmission is lower, but to what degree I don't know.

PHE figures currently show something like 85% effectiveness at stopping symptomatic illness with the Delta Variant with all the current vaccines. If you do get it then onward transmission is reduced by around half. There has been some research saying that the viral load for people who catch it is the same whether you have been vaccinated or not but other research is less clear on this and people who do catch it that have been vaccinated clear the virus much faster so infect fewer people.

The current vaccines are really good and the effectiveness is way better than many of those for other diseases. There may be tweaked versions down the line which improve it further for the variants like Beta that do have greater vaccine escape. As Zetetic says, getting them to people in the rest of the world will make the most difference now.

As I understand it what we call the flu is actually several different coronaviruses. Covid-19 is just joining them. I haven't a clue what difference it will make to the mortality rate going forward.

The other coronaviruses cause colds rather than flu. There's some evidence for one of them having caused substantial mortality in the past but now being typically caught in early childhood it only causes severe illness in a small number of cases.

Have only skimmed it so far, but this from the usually excellent Ed Yong covers how the pandemic might end: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/08/delta-has-changed-pandemic-endgame/619726/.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on August 13, 2021, 11:00:25 AM
As I understand it what we call the flu is actually several different coronaviruses. Covid-19 is just joining them. I haven't a clue what difference it will make to the mortality rate going forward.

To be pedantic, flu is caused by influenza viruses. The practical difference is that influenza viruses can evade immunity by changing a particular protein through antigenic shift. Which is why you can get flu multiple times and why vaccines need to be changed every year.

The covid vaccine works against the spike protein, and from what I understand this can't change much while still allowing the virus to mutate. So there is more hope that corona can be limited than flu, although time will tell.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on August 13, 2021, 11:41:08 AM
The belief that the spike protein has gotta be super-heavily conserved seems, while well-founded (as far as I can judge such a thing), incredibly optimistic and it would be best if we didn't go out of our way to test it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Alberon on August 13, 2021, 12:18:19 PM
The developed world really needs to put large sums into vacinating the whole planet. It's in our interests as much as in those of the poorer countries of the world.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: katzenjammer on August 13, 2021, 12:57:04 PM
Have only skimmed it so far, but this from the usually excellent Ed Yong covers how the pandemic might end: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/08/delta-has-changed-pandemic-endgame/619726/.

Thanks for that steveh, a good read, and also for all your other posts on Covid, I for one appreciate them.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on August 13, 2021, 01:27:15 PM
The developed world really needs to put large sums into vacinating the whole planet. It's in our interests as much as in those of the poorer countries of the world.

The Delta variant is going to be scary when it hits the poorest countries. The poorer countries largely have a significantly younger population which has limited the fatalities in other variants. The Delta variant seems to impact young people much more.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on August 13, 2021, 04:02:08 PM
Quote
The Delta variant seems to impact young people much more.
I think the jury's still out on that.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on August 13, 2021, 04:33:33 PM
I think the jury's still out on that.

Children's hospitals are filling up with COVID patients in America. 1600 children hospitalised with COVID last week according to the CDC.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on August 13, 2021, 04:36:07 PM
Children's hospitals are filling up with COVID patients in America. 1600 children hospitalised with COVID last week according to the CDC.

It's not really clear whether that's because so many kids are catching it or whether because it causes worse symptoms in children than other variants.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on August 17, 2021, 05:44:50 PM
You'd think advising people to wear masks during football matches - when while it is outdoors there is lots of singing and shouting - would be logical but Jenrick still goes for the "personal responsibility" line.

“Our message as a government is that we should all be cautious, because it is clear that the number of cases is high and is going to rise, but that these things should be a matter of personal responsibility and we trust the public to come to a sensible, pragmatic conclusion."

From what I've seen the public can't be trusted to come to a sensible, pragmatic conclusion.

https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/local-hubs/shrewsbury/2021/07/20/football-fans-should-use-their-own-judgement-on-masks---minister/
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on August 17, 2021, 06:07:56 PM
Become one of those lunatics who bothers customer service personnel to no useful end, in this particular case by asking a train operating company to show me their risk assessments.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: falafel on August 18, 2021, 07:16:59 AM
The pharmaceutical industry's boffins are doubtless working hard on vaccines that protect against the current variants whilst not suppressing the spread of the virus sufficiently to stop it mutating so that we (or the Government, or whoever gives them money) will have to buy more vaccines from them to protect against next year's variants.

I know this is a consciously playful throwaway statement but if I can take it a little bit seriously for a minute    As ever, I'm tickled by the suggestion that pharmaceutical R&D could be so exacting and predictable that you could wilfully underpower a therapy to maximise profit without fucking yourself up the arse. And equally, the thought  that the 'boffins' have any interest at all in making long-term revenue streams 'for the company' rather than just making something that works... why would they care? Even the big chiefs of the major pharma companies would rather chase a blockbuster that demonstrates massive advantages over the competition even if it destroys any given market, that way they can retire with a fat wallet from the short-term revenue and their reputation intact. Bear in mind in the normal world it can take decades for a drug to get to market, most people who work for the companies don't get to see any of the money that comes in.

Consciously optimising to keep people just sick enough to keep shelling out doesn't just not happen, it wouldn't be worth the effort and would likely result in less revenue overall. Have you seen the attrition rates for new drug candidates as they are? Through the roof.

Now there's a case to be made for capitalism systematically undermining the pace of development, and for a company's relationship with investors and analysts having an undue effect on corporate strategy.

I generally believe that most of the evils in this world are not down to people rubbing their hands together and deliberately feeding the money machine, but ordinary people being put into a position where they unconsciously or regretfully contribute to something destructive or counterproductive.

Even the people trying to turn Philip Morris into a pharma company and 'end smoking forever'. I firmly believe not only that the company needs to die as soon as possible, but also that they really think they are doing the right thing. Delusion is far more powerful and pervasive than actual conscious money-grubbing maniacal-laughter level evil.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: falafel on August 18, 2021, 07:29:05 AM
I guess what I'm suggesting is that you can be suspicious by all means, just consider whether you're being suspicious of the right thing. There seem to be to be in the world not so many actual conspiracies but an awful lot of accidental coalitions of the deluded and the incompetent. Arguably a harder problem to solve.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on August 18, 2021, 08:19:33 AM
I haven't actually seen any suggestions (aside from my own, which was as you say "consciously playful") that vaccines are being deliberately designed to be less than 100% effective for the express purpose of keeping the virus circulating and mutating, thus requiring repeated vaccination with updated vaccines. The thing I did see seriously suggested, which was what put the idea into my head, was that pharma companies had been lobbying government to enact policy liable to encourage new variants that could require updated vaccines. I'd be inclined to rank this as conspiracy theory, although it's not exactly hard to believe that this is something our current government could be bamboozled into doing.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on August 18, 2021, 08:32:44 AM
Thankfully the policy of not giving a shit about at least half the rest of the world aligns neatly a wide set of existing objectives for most national governments.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: falafel on August 18, 2021, 08:56:35 AM
I haven't actually seen any suggestions (aside from my own, which was as you say "consciously playful") that vaccines are being deliberately designed to be less than 100% effective for the express purpose of keeping the virus circulating and mutating, thus requiring repeated vaccination with updated vaccines. The thing I did see seriously suggested, which was what put the idea into my head, was that pharma companies had been lobbying government to enact policy liable to encourage new variants that could require updated vaccines. I'd be inclined to rank this as conspiracy theory, although it's not exactly hard to believe that this is something our current government could be bamboozled into doing.

Right, I haven't seen this sort of suggestion bandied around for the vaccines so much but it's something you see a lot in relation to oncology for example.

Re the other theory... I can see how someone looking for answers would buy into that, especially when you look at how much Pfizer has made out of the vaccine for example. It's q good example of how conspiracy theory does often need you to ignore some quite obvious counterpoints and throw Occam's razor out of the window though. Like, whether pharma companies would want to continue to see negative effects on clinical trials and drug sales in other disease areas as a consequence of the pandemic, the risk that governments might eventually introduce the kinds of procing controls that they ahould have done from the very start, that more not-for-profit vaccines could emerge quite quickly in such an environment now more time has passed and we understand the disease better... even if people want to believe that the employees and leaders want to amorally suck the planet dry of cash and resources, there are much better ways of doing it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Beagle 2 on August 18, 2021, 01:23:46 PM
Today seems to be THE DAY THE MASK SLIPPED round these parts, which is to say I've seen almost 100% of people carrying on wearing them up to now and when I went out at lunchtime it was suddenly about one in eight, some people going as far as dangling them off their chin playfully.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on August 18, 2021, 02:42:57 PM
Tory ministers and most Tory MPs not wearing masks in packed House of Commons: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/18/ministers-accused-of-putting-staff-at-risk-by-not-wearing-masks-in-commons
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on August 18, 2021, 04:58:18 PM
I saw a poll somewhere the other day saying that something like 70+% of people had said they were still wearing masks every time they leave the house. Based on what I've seen when I've been out, a lot of people must have been lying.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on August 18, 2021, 05:50:33 PM
I saw a poll somewhere the other day saying that something like 70+% of people had said they were still wearing masks every time they leave the house. Based on what I've seen when I've been out, a lot of people must have been lying.

It’s a polling thing. People know they should do XYZ, so they tell the pollster they do even if it’s cobblers.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Kelvin on August 19, 2021, 06:38:06 PM
I think it's also fairly likely that a lot of people are still wearing them, just less than they did. Busy places, sure, but a lot less in places that feel safe. So when I go into a small store, most people are wearing masks, but when I go to a large supermarket there's much fewer people wearing them because it "feels" more spacious and safe.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on August 20, 2021, 09:01:03 AM
I think it's also fairly likely that a lot of people are still wearing them, just less than they did. Busy places, sure, but a lot less in places that feel safe. So when I go into a small store, most people are wearing masks, but when I go to a large supermarket there's much fewer people wearing them because it "feels" more spacious and safe.

Yep
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on August 24, 2021, 09:23:21 AM
Recorded UK Covid deaths has reached an average of 100 a day again.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on August 24, 2021, 10:04:43 AM
Who cares? It's over

CaB meet!!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on August 24, 2021, 03:07:50 PM
Highest number of daily cases since records began in Scotland.

Depressing preview for England given that we tend to follow their stats a couple of weeks later.

No longer entirely convinced it is "The Final FUCKDOWN"
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Norton Canes on August 24, 2021, 03:15:47 PM
Cornwall asking tourists to stay away, Cumbria asking prospective visitors to take lateral flow tests - which elicited a spectacularly poorly-worded reply from Alison Magee-Barker, who 'works with tourism and hospitality firms' in the county:

"Potentially it could put people off and we're coming up to a winter season where we really fight for guests. We've had such a hard time in the hospitality industry over the last 18 months with restrictions and guidelines. This could be another nail in the coffin"

Could. Not. Make. It. Up.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on August 24, 2021, 03:20:32 PM
Cornwall and Cumbria eh? They may as well just form their own nations at this point.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: ajsmith2 on August 24, 2021, 03:24:35 PM
Ignore: wrong thread.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on August 24, 2021, 03:25:46 PM
If anyone is put off by being asked (not made) to take a test to detect if they have asymptomatic coronavirus, that's tough. Far better than people spreading covid around Cornwall. The requirements for international holidays (which are much stricter) don't seem to have put that many off. If people are that worried about having to take an lft, they should try to limit their interactions as much as possible in the 10 days before their holiday (not always easy, I know).

AMB is also quoted as having said the following

Quote
"Yes, it would be quite handy to make sure we could keep our county safe. However, who is going to police it?

"We've already had 'Freedom Day' and the releasing of restrictions yet we're then forcing them on again."

So on the one hand she's concerned it could put people off and on the other hand she's worried who would police it. It's a request - if people want to offer proof they could take a photo of their negative test with a newspaper and/or clock next to it.

"it would be quite handy to make sure we could keep our county safe". 18 months into a pandemic.

When you consider all the people who've been taking tests before social events and twice a week for work, asking people to take a test before travelling for a holiday isn't too much to ask.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on August 24, 2021, 03:29:34 PM
I do get that people in the tourism industry are struggling financially but it's in everyone's interest to keep covid cases low in Cornwall.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on August 24, 2021, 04:34:59 PM
Quote
Far better than people spreading covid around Cornwall.

I think that will be happening regardless.

Mixed feelings as they have benefited from staycations this year and there has been a lot of price-gouging going on.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on August 24, 2021, 04:43:42 PM
Meant to be going Cornwall at the end of the week. It's all booked though, so that seems to be fine for some reason(?). And it's been expensive so those yokels and hicks down there can lump it, I'm arriving,
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: GMTV on August 24, 2021, 04:53:39 PM
Highest number of daily cases since records began in Scotland.

Depressing preview for England given that we tend to follow their stats a couple of weeks later.

No longer entirely convinced it is "The Final FUCKDOWN"

Could've done a without wee nic's clickbaity tweet this morning prior to the latest covid update.

You won't want to miss this HUGE update today. Join me at 12pm for a MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT

https://mobile.twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1430071083768627200 (https://mobile.twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1430071083768627200)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Uncle TechTip on August 24, 2021, 06:25:49 PM
I think that will be happening regardless.

Mixed feelings as they have benefited from staycations this year and there has been a lot of price-gouging going on.

They'd call it demand management.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Milo on August 24, 2021, 09:44:42 PM
Tory ministers and most Tory MPs not wearing masks in packed House of Commons: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/18/ministers-accused-of-putting-staff-at-risk-by-not-wearing-masks-in-commons

Don't have to in workplaces although they can be required by risk assessments which require reasonable measures to minimise transmission. Huge scope for interpretation there and also puts the requirement under health and safety law which isn't likely to be punitive on the employee. Which is to say if you don't comply with the risk assessment as an employee/MP it's a disciplinary matter rather than a legal one.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on August 25, 2021, 10:06:53 AM
Recorded UK Covid deaths has reached an average of 100 a day again.

Kids in Scotland have already been back a week and it's going nuts there, preview of the future in England. Maybe. Who the fuck knows to be honest.

I do think mask adherence is way down, and it has to be partly because of stuff like full football stadiums. I guess to a lot of people wearing a mask in a not that crowded train carriage or in Tesco feels a bit silly when they're going home to watch a game from a full Old Trafford on the telly. Pandemic is over mate.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on August 25, 2021, 10:32:49 AM
We went into lockdown last November when there were 1400 people on ventilation in Hostipals in Greabiturn.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

Current number is 942.

As well as the total number they will be looking for the rate of increase and what they think hospitals will cope with.

It is time to be pessimistic about autumn and winter, I'm afraid.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on August 25, 2021, 10:35:08 AM
The NHSs are in a worse situation in many other ways at this point, setting aside ventilation capacity.

The elective care backlogs are longer and far more dangerous, and unscheduled care is increasingly[1] fucked from non-COVID causes.
 1. As ever, but still.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on August 25, 2021, 10:36:17 AM
Very much looking forward to dying of an otherwise easily treatable malady come November
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: katzenjammer on August 25, 2021, 12:32:40 PM
Does anyone seriously think this government would lockdown again?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on August 25, 2021, 12:44:29 PM
Does anyone seriously think this government would lockdown again?

It isn't a dynamic where they would have a choice. No government will survive the total collapse of their health service, especially if there was an alternative which was 'wear a mask and don't go to pubs or abroad for several weeks'. The Tories are full of some of the harshest, least caring free trade selfish money obsessed people in the entire world but they are also into self-preservation.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: scarecrow on August 25, 2021, 12:48:19 PM
Does anyone seriously think this government would lockdown again?
Yup. We're going to be in and out of lockdown until a serious suppression strategy is adopted. That's what's so frustrating about the situation - nevermind the avoidable deaths, the cunts are just wasting everyone's time while they delay the inevitable.

Don't know if you caught the Scottish COVID briefing yesterday, but the SNP are clearly open to reimposing restrictions if things get too bad to ignore - which I suspect they will next month.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on August 25, 2021, 12:48:39 PM
There's already talk of suspending a tonne of elective care for months again, as the least of a few evils.

What counts as a collapse at this point is unclear, I guess.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on August 25, 2021, 12:56:07 PM
What counts as a collapse at this point is unclear, I guess.

Really? It doesn't actually need spelling out, surely.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on August 25, 2021, 01:12:23 PM
If you're having to shut down vast swathes of secondary care for months year after year, at some point that's not a health service. NI's unscheduled care would look like a collapse in most of the rest of the UK.

I appreciate there are situations that clearly are a "total collapse" but, short of Threads, I reckon there's a lot of elasticity (in part wrought by the last decade, particularly in England and in Wales) that the governments of the UK have to play with and that makes it trickier to know what will convince each of them to take action in society rather than fiddling with service to keep it crawling for a bit longer.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Psybro on August 25, 2021, 01:26:53 PM
No government will survive the total collapse of their health service


The conditions in the United Kingdom currently seem well set up to seriously test that hypothesis.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on August 25, 2021, 01:28:34 PM
And there's always the issue that much of this is fundamentally regional - the government in Westminster will (arguably is, right now) happily let most of England run to a dreadful state if London's A&Es are just about coping (let alone the other countries of the union).
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on August 25, 2021, 02:34:02 PM
Does anyone seriously think this government would lockdown again?

Sure, if the hospitals get that bad again, which it's looking like they will.

I know Boris has said all that about last lockdown ever, or by god let the bodies pile high, etc - but rule number 1: Boris U-turns.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on August 25, 2021, 02:44:44 PM
It will probably follow what has been seen in previous lockdowns:

Hospitalsations and deaths get really high
People start calling for lockdowns. Some people stop visiting pubs/nightclubs/dogging spots/orgy rooms
Johnson says no and uses a couple of long words
Hospitalisations and deaths rise further, major incidents declared at some hospitals. Some people stop visiting non-essential shops.
Labour calls for lockdown
Johnson says no and makes some shitty quip
Hospitalists and deaths rise further. Major disruption to supply chain. Couple of Tory talking heads call for lockdown
Johnson says no
Two days later
Johnson finally locks down
His supporters claim he couldn't have known another lockdown was needed and call people who criticise him "Captain Hindsight"
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on August 25, 2021, 02:52:31 PM
Sure, if the hospitals get that bad again, which it's looking like they will.

I know Boris has said all that about last lockdown ever, or by god let the bodies pile high, etc - but rule number 1: Boris U-turns.

Indeed, quite why anyone believes a word he says is astonishing.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on August 25, 2021, 04:13:21 PM
What counts as "major disruption to supply chain?" I thought we already had that from Brexit.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on August 25, 2021, 04:17:21 PM
I would say disruption bad enough that there's a shortage of basic items, people can still find enough food to feed themselves but every part of the supermarket is affected. Might see the odd fight over certain goods.

I mean, this may very well not happen but if cases do get really bad I imagine there will be very reduced choice in shops for most people. Aside from the super-rich who will still be able to enjoy their caviar and duck eggs on their Zoom calls with Prime Minister Blood on Hands.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Alberon on August 25, 2021, 05:15:41 PM
I don’t think there will be another lockdown. I’m not saying there won’t be a need for one, but I don’t think one will happen.

They might ban social gatherings, night clubs and audiences at sports again, but there will be no lockdown.

No matter how bad things get.

Masks will remain optional and you will be told to go out to work.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on August 25, 2021, 05:34:48 PM
Meanwhile Taiwan, a sensible country, has reported zero coronavirus cases today.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on August 25, 2021, 06:34:59 PM
I don’t think there will be another lockdown. I’m not saying there won’t be a need for one, but I don’t think one will happen.

They might ban social gatherings, night clubs and audiences at sports again, but there will be no lockdown.

No matter how bad things get.

Masks will remain optional and you will be told to go out to work.

Yup I said it in June (?) and still think it’s about right - in order for a lockdown, you’d need real carnage. Not 900 people on vents but 5,000 and rising. Not 100 people going into the ground a day but 2k+.

I don’t think there’s the political will to do it again, unless it gets so patently awful that it’s the only option left. That isn’t to say there won’t be a need for it, but unless the need is so undeniable that even Joe soap reading the express thinks it is a good idea, that’s yer lot.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on August 25, 2021, 10:36:36 PM
Yep and those numbers you're talking about are really feasible going into December.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on August 25, 2021, 10:51:32 PM
Their endgame has to be running the NHS into the ground. Already started seeing the puff pieces about people choosing to go private for procedures because of the waiting lists.

Disclosure: my dad was one of them. But he has dementia and my mum was struggling to cope unless he had his cataracts seen to. Not enthused about it, guess I’m not getting an inheritance after all, but it’s their money.

Next it’ll be the jaunty ads from the insurers. “Why wait?” says the friendly reassuring actor or the BUPA or Nuffield commercial. Then more puff pieces about how all the fearmongering about US-style health insurance was precisely that, and the promise of tax cuts (with no NHS to pay for) “just when we all need it the most” will say the actor in party political broadcast who’s pretending to budget for Christmas.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on August 25, 2021, 10:58:47 PM
Yep and those numbers you're talking about are really feasible going into December.

And once (if?) the UK gets there, then there will be a lockdown[1].

Call it the Littlejohn test - if some self appointed arsehole tabloid columnist calls for a lockdown, then it will mean there’s a popular groundswell of support for it, so the powers that he will take notice. Until then, I just don’t see it.
 1. though I don’t think it will get that bad. Preddos of 14k daily hospitalizations and 100k cases by July never materialized despite the removal of restricitons (which I think was fucking stupid and everyone involved is getting lucky rather than making a cunning calculation), and with 95% of the population having some form of antibody for the virus then it would take a pretty significant variant to change that
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on August 26, 2021, 02:34:13 PM
There won't be another lockdown. Don't forget that the vaxx fundementally changes the dynamic of it all. We won't ever be in a March 2020 situation again. But you can see a slow churn of cases at a high number increasing hospital numbers bit by bit and we might hit Jan 2021 levels again, at which point some restrictions surely come back in. Not lockdown because we don't need them anymore but events behind closed doors, capacity limits in pubs etc.

On the other hand the current tactic is to basically let the virus roll through in the summer to reduce the size of an outbreak in winter. At some point it runs out of people to infect.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Huxleys Babkins on August 26, 2021, 03:00:59 PM
The bigger concern is flu, I think. All we need is for the flu vaccine to miss the dominant strain like it did a few years back and the health service is in deep shit and that's before you add COVID to the mix.

The worrying thing is that we usually follow what's happened in Australia to decide which strains to vaccinate against, but as Oz has been in semi-lockdown all year, I'm not sure how confident we can be that we'll get it right.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on August 26, 2021, 03:20:20 PM
On the bright side we did just have a little event called the COVID-19 PANDEMIC that killed a bunch of people prone to dying from respiratory infections.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on August 26, 2021, 05:06:08 PM
On the bright side we did just have a little event called the COVID-19 PANDEMIC that killed a bunch of people prone to dying from respiratory infections.

And also left a bunch of people with lung damage that makes them more susceptible to respiratory problems. Plus energy bills are way up, meaning it will be more difficult for people on low incomes to heat their homes adequately this winter, and a cold home increases the risk of flu developing into pneumonia.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on August 26, 2021, 05:11:43 PM
There won't be another lockdown. Don't forget that the vaxx fundementally changes the dynamic of it all. We won't ever be in a March 2020 situation again. But you can see a slow churn of cases at a high number increasing hospital numbers bit by bit and we might hit Jan 2021 levels again, at which point some restrictions surely come back in. Not lockdown because we don't need them anymore but events behind closed doors, capacity limits in pubs etc.

On the other hand the current tactic is to basically let the virus roll through in the summer to reduce the size of an outbreak in winter. At some point it runs out of people to infect.

No it doesn’t. Immunity wanes, virus mutates, the cycle of reinfection continues.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on August 26, 2021, 05:22:03 PM
Yes, when I hear people saying “Oh, it’ll just become the new ‘flu” I think, well, we’ve still got the old ‘flu too, and in fact there are loads of different/new ones prevalent every year. I think people hope they’ll just be able to shrug off/ignore people dying of COVID just like they do the ‘flu every year.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: stonkers on August 27, 2021, 04:44:14 PM
Yes, when I hear people saying “Oh, it’ll just become the new ‘flu” I think, well, we’ve still got the old ‘flu too, and in fact there are loads of different/new ones prevalent every year. I think people hope they’ll just be able to shrug off/ignore people dying of COVID just like they do the ‘flu every year.

Specifically we've still got the Spanish flu strain, which killed a shiteload more people than Covid has so far. Covid isn't going anywhere and yeah at some point we have to accept there is going to be a certain level of illness and death and there's only so much you can reasonably do about it, which mainly means vaccinating as many people as possible. 
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on August 27, 2021, 04:45:55 PM
No it doesn’t. Immunity wanes, virus mutates, the cycle of reinfection continues.

Immunity seems to last at least six months tho, probably more. Second infections are a tiny % of all known infections. Our best guess at the moment is that second infections will be, in the main, a lot milder than first infections for most of us.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on August 28, 2021, 08:06:56 AM
Quote
Specifically we've still got the Spanish flu strain, which killed a shiteload more people than Covid has so far

I love the vague implication that one can do a flat comparison of those two pandemics without the need to investigate any sort of factors other than numbers dead.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: stonkers on August 28, 2021, 08:54:54 AM
I love the vague implication that one can do a flat comparison of those two pandemics without the need to investigate any sort of factors other than numbers dead.

I was just responding to mothman's flu comparison, although I don't think comparing two global respiratory disease pandemics is unreasonable. Saying "it's just the flu" in March 2020 was stupid, saying it when you have a population with widespread immunity from a combination of infection and several extremely effective vaccines is a different story (and I'm not syaing we're at that point yet).
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on August 28, 2021, 04:17:14 PM
Just to be clear though, I’m not the one comparing/equating the flu in general, or the Spanish Flu in particular, with COVID.  It seems to be COVID deniers, antivaxxers etc. who do so.[1] They would very much like to pretend it’s just this minor unremarkable thing that happens to other people every year.
 1. I doubt many of them know anything about the Spanish Flu epidemic, and certainly not that the name itself represents one of the most cynical (but successful) rebranding campaigns ever, blaming an epidemic that killed millions, but likely started in the US, on another country.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: evilcommiedictator on August 30, 2021, 11:21:10 PM
Ah good, rationing test tubes now lads!
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1431829158179622912
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E97hBy8XEAA8HFd?format=jpg&name=large)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on September 01, 2021, 10:17:36 AM
Just to be clear though, I’m not the one comparing/equating the flu in general, or the Spanish Flu in particular, with COVID.  It seems to be COVID deniers, antivaxxers etc. who do so.[1] They would very much like to pretend it’s just this minor unremarkable thing that happens to other people every year.
 1. I doubt many of them know anything about the Spanish Flu epidemic, and certainly not that the name itself represents one of the most cynical (but successful) rebranding campaigns ever, blaming an epidemic that killed millions, but likely started in the US, on another country.

I really really recommend Laura Spinney's "Pale Rider" which is on the subject of the "Spanish flu". The reason it was the "Spanish" flu was because, as a neutral party in World War 1, their press was uncensored so was reporting what was actually happening, while the media in the UK, France, Germany etc didn't.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: A Hat Like That on September 01, 2021, 12:18:31 PM
Will second the recommendation of Pale Rider. It's a great book, mixes the history, science, geography etc really well.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on September 04, 2021, 08:59:25 AM
Back into the 40k a day territory, hospital numbers still rising steadily. Autumn on the way.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on September 04, 2021, 09:22:09 AM
"steadily" is not rapidly though. And at under 10k in hospital we're a long way from the 40k peaks we've had before. And it looks like case numbers are levelling off.

It's really hard to see how it ends better than this.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Alberon on September 04, 2021, 09:44:43 AM
At the moment it's in the 'very bad' rather than the 'catastrophic' zone. There's two hurdles to come. Schools and universities going back and then the winter.

The major issue with hospitals is not really if Covid hospilisations reach previous peaks (which, unless we're really unlucky with a new variant, they won't), but if they can cope with Covid and all the normal stuff they do, large amounts of which has had to be postponed during large parts of the pandemic.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on September 04, 2021, 10:06:35 AM
Yep, critically important to bear in mind.

Most of the predictions re Delta chart a curve but surely with colder weather and different activity on the way, along with the continuing tailoff of public vigilance re: distancing and mask wearing, we are looking at something more like waves with the 'tidemark' or water line increasing as we move through the next 6 months.

What is conceivably going to stop that other than all of: winter period of lockdown/reinstatement and reinforcement of public behaviour/better vaccines/boosters?

I believe vaccines have weakened the link between infections and serious illness deaths but not capped the potential impact sufficiently to ride everything out, which is what we were hoping for.

What news indicates otherwise, I would be interested to read it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on September 04, 2021, 05:46:07 PM
Is it all riding on better vaccines coming out and/or the booster approach working and being able to be rolled out in time for Xmas?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Alberon on September 04, 2021, 07:58:41 PM
I dunno about better vaccines. They might have to tinker with them as COVID mutates like they do with the flu shots each year, but I don’t think they’ll ever get substantially better than they are now.

Everyone is waiting to see how long immunity lasts with the current vaccines.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: ElTwopo on September 04, 2021, 08:24:32 PM
At the moment it's in the 'very bad' rather than the 'catastrophic' zone. There's two hurdles to come. Schools and universities going back and then the winter.

I wonder how many offices are also going to be re-opening. Ours does next week (we're required to go in once a week, but no more if we don't want to), and I imagine others will follow suit when furlough ends at the end of the month.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on September 04, 2021, 09:01:41 PM
The vaccines as they currently protect are an absolute miracle. Seems churlish to dismiss what science has achieved with them.

Yes they will improve with booster shots but they have already saved millions upon millions of lives and brought us significantly closer to ending the pandemic. Might not be enough on their own (almost certainly won't be) but the achievement is one of the greatest in human history.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on September 04, 2021, 09:27:14 PM
It seems to be affecting older people again as the "layer 1" immunity wears off, the interesting thing will be to see if it translates to hospitalisations.  Maybe they will even go down if (I don't have the stats) it was catching more of the younger/unvaccinated.  If the "layer 2" (vs. Severe illness) immunity holds which all indications show it doing, then now it's returning to people who are at less risk of hospitalisation.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on September 05, 2021, 12:16:15 AM
The vaccines as they currently protect are an absolute miracle. Seems churlish to dismiss what science has achieved with them.

Yes they will improve with booster shots but they have already saved millions upon millions of lives and brought us significantly closer to ending the pandemic. Might not be enough on their own (almost certainly won't be) but the achievement is one of the greatest in human history.

Where is this happening, sorry?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Old Thrashbarg on September 05, 2021, 01:12:00 AM
Where is this happening, sorry?

Things like asking "is it worth waiting until better vaccines come out?". Questions asked by otherwise reasonable people who see the headline stories saying 40% of infections are in vaccinated people, or whatever.

It has not been made clear enough in the media that these are some of the most effective and efficient vaccines ever created, turned around in just a few months thanks to the advancement in the science of vaccination.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on September 05, 2021, 08:27:19 AM
if they can cope with Covid and all the normal stuff they do, large amounts of which has had to be postponed during large parts of the pandemic.
The health services of the UK haven't been able to cope with all the normal stuff for several years.

And perhaps the most significant impact of COVID-19 now is capacity, not demand. Almost every single part of the service is now in a novel acute workforce crisis on top of the decades-long workforce crises.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on September 05, 2021, 09:16:17 AM
This is good on waning immunity and why you shouldn't currently worry: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/09/waning-immunity-not-crisis-right-now/619965/.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on September 07, 2021, 06:44:03 AM
https://inews.co.uk/news/covid-lockdown-government-plans-october-firebreak-restrictions-hospital-admissions-1185533

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on September 07, 2021, 09:58:56 AM
Predictably the people most outraged about this are the ones who won't do things to help avoid flooding the hospitals like get jabbed or wear a mask on the train. Cunts.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chollis on September 07, 2021, 10:53:40 AM
One final fuckdown, for the lads?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on September 07, 2021, 03:52:01 PM
One final fuckdown, for the lads?

Could be on for a chekky fuckdown yeah
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on September 07, 2021, 03:52:50 PM
Close the pubs so we can OPEN THE PUBS
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: poo on September 07, 2021, 04:27:34 PM
nailed-on fuckdown this winter
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on September 07, 2021, 04:35:54 PM
Rate of new vaccinations seems to be getting lower. I suspect a large proportion of the other 10.2% of over 16s who have not had one jab will be the anti-vaxxers.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on September 07, 2021, 04:40:19 PM
When my eldest went for her first, she was told she might not get the second anytime soon/at all, to ensure there were sufficient stocks to give everyone at least one jab…
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on September 08, 2021, 08:43:18 AM
When my eldest went for her first, she was told she might not get the second anytime soon/at all, to ensure there were sufficient stocks to give everyone at least one jab…

Seriously? I thought it had been established that one jab is pretty much useless against Delta. Sounds like it's more about bumping up the numbers of people who've "had the jab" rather than ensuring people are fully vaccinated.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on September 08, 2021, 03:52:41 PM
Less than 5% of people wearing masks on the bus into Oxford. Lots of White Rose stickers around Cowley Road by the Plain. Less than 5% of people wearing masks on the bus out of Oxford, and this bus was really full as a previous bus had broken down.

I suppose most people don't pay attention to the hospitalisations or deaths any more. 191 deaths within 28 days of a positive test today, 933 patients admitted with covid. How can you see that and not wear a mask on the bus (unless medically exempt) to protect others.

The White Rose crew have won.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on September 08, 2021, 05:00:02 PM
I’d guess apathy has won, more than anything. It’s hard to make everyone alter their behaviour and once it slips, that’s sort of it.

It’s one of the reasons I am so utterly opposed to removing mask mandates in my little corner of Canada that has had fuck all cases and zero community spread for months - once you say “ok, we won’t make you do this but for the safety of your fellow citizens we ask you to do it voluntarily” people in general will read the first half of the sentence and call it a day. Back to normal lads! And case counts and deaths become background noise to be handily ignored (until it affects you personally). That’s human nature.

What has been fascinating for a sociology nerd like me is that the pandemic has largely stopped all travel and migration, so every country’s citizens have largely stayed within their own borders and developed their own informal rule sets and codified actions for their day to day life. Example - my parents came to stay with us from the UK to Canada and they’re some of the most anxious people I know about covid.

…and yet! They were unfamiliar with certain kinds of masks and regularly forgot to bring them places, were baffled when people politely declined their cash and requested card payments, and said things like “oh well I’m only going to nip inside for a few minutes so surely I don’t need a mask for that”. They’re not idiots, they’ve just lived the last 18 months in the UK and have adopted British social behaviours that seemed really different (and frankly, more lax and bad) from the ones I have lived with for the same time period. By the same token, their talk of R-rates was alien to me because we don’t do that though it’s probably a better way to think about it.

It’s the first time in modern history that countries have evolved their own protocols from scratch for the same problem with minimal outside input, and the differences are really interesting (to me, anyway). There’s a PhD in that somewhere.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on September 08, 2021, 05:13:06 PM
Yeah this ‘back to normal’ thing is just illusion over facts isn’t it? There’s no consistency over the reaction to infection rates, it’s like a collective sticking their fingers in their ears and going la la la.

Winter’s going to be a fucking disaster and people will die unnecessarily but who fucking cares eh, we need to fun stuff again. Maybe we should start to charge people with manslaughter.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on September 08, 2021, 05:37:25 PM
I was thinking while seething inside on the bus, what would help would be a lot of LED display boards driven around local areas with the most recent case counts, number of deaths and number in hospital. Perhaps "192 died on the 8th September from COVID" might make people realise how serious the situation is.

And/or some billboards telling people how bad things really are.

And no doubt many of the maskless people I saw on the bus today will refuse to comply if there is another lockdown, causing it to be extended further and further.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on September 08, 2021, 06:51:42 PM
we need to fun stuff again

I mean, we actually do have to at some point.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on September 08, 2021, 06:54:35 PM
I mean, we actually do have to at some point.

When it’s safe to do so. My fun should not contribute to another’s death, these are not notions that should ever be part of a balancing calculation.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on September 08, 2021, 06:58:46 PM
I mean, we actually do have to at some point.

But do we, that's the thing though. Do we really? What was fun?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on September 08, 2021, 07:23:55 PM
I do wonder when I will ever feel safe going to a pub or for an indoor meal again, two things I have not done since Feb 2020, partly because of people who refuse to wear masks or have windows open on buses keeping the case count high. These people are helping to damage the economy, they don't care about other people but you'd think they'd worry about the economy which affects them.

I do go into non essential shops but I always double masks and keep a distance from others.

No orgies, same as before the pandemic
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on September 08, 2021, 07:31:26 PM
When it’s safe to do so. My fun should not contribute to another’s death, these are not notions that should ever be part of a balancing calculation.

Everything has a consequence. Where do you draw the line?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on September 08, 2021, 07:50:35 PM
Everything has a consequence. Where do you draw the line?

This one's obvious, we stop doing voluntary fun activities and let more live. It's a stark choice.

We need to buy time until we get more people vaccinated and we know more about the longitudinal outlook.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on September 08, 2021, 09:49:18 PM
What do you consider voluntary fun activities?

It's tricky as things like socialiaing and exercise have positive health benefits. Under what circumstances should they be banned?

Why not call for the vaccine rollout to be stepped up rather than banning things?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: gib on September 08, 2021, 09:53:08 PM
But do we, that's the thing though. Do we really? What was fun?

your mum
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: gib on September 08, 2021, 09:53:50 PM
What do you consider voluntary fun activities?

Cuellar's mum
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on September 08, 2021, 10:19:09 PM
Pretty valid answer
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: The Mollusk on September 09, 2021, 06:46:56 AM
I’d guess apathy has won, more than anything. It’s hard to make everyone alter their behaviour and once it slips, that’s sort of it.

Yeah, this and normalisation. Seeing other people not wearing a mask or social distancing just breeds apathy. It’s easier to do nothing, even though wearing a mask and social distancing is only a fucking tiny little bit more than doing nothing.

I commute all over London every day for my work - often several bus/tube journeys per day - and I’ve never not worn a mask as soon as I set foot inside a station or a bus and the same applies for every shop or pub or restaurant. But in the last couple of weeks when inspecting properties for work if a contractor has turned up unexpectedly I have caught myself not putting my mask on when they arrive. A subconscious culmination of there only being two of us in this empty property, rarely being in the same room or near one another, and I always open the windows when I get to a place anyway. But that’s where it starts. If I let myself stop taking that extra step of safety it’s inevitably downhill from there. And on the vast majority of other occasions when I have put the mask on, the people entering the property will often have an “oh, yep, of course” response and put theirs on too. This stuff needs constant reinforcement.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on September 09, 2021, 09:10:46 AM

…and yet! They were unfamiliar with certain kinds of masks and regularly forgot to bring them places, were baffled when people politely declined their cash and requested card payments, and said things like “oh well I’m only going to nip inside for a few minutes so surely I don’t need a mask for that”. They’re not idiots, they’ve just lived the last 18 months in the UK and have adopted British social behaviours that seemed really different (and frankly, more lax and bad) from the ones I have lived with for the same time period.

That sounds pretty bad by my UK standards. My guess would be that's less to do with different culture, and more to do with them actually getting out the house/country for the first time.

If they're anything like my parents, they hardly left the house since it began. Which is the right thing to do, but means they won't have developed the same "keys, phone, wallet, mask" habits that non-retirees have had to develop.

Then they leave the house and country, which is already a bit disorienting, and get stuff wrong.

I'm obviously guessing a lot, but I think the things you mention aren't things that someone who is covid aware in the UK would think are OK.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on September 09, 2021, 09:40:38 AM
What do you consider voluntary fun activities?

It's tricky as things like socialiaing and exercise have positive health benefits. Under what circumstances should they be banned?

Why not call for the vaccine rollout to be stepped up rather than banning things?

How would you suggest we step up the vaccine rollout? It looks like supply of the vaccine is the main issue holding things back, I imagine about 10% of the country will be against having the vaccine and we're nearly at 90% for one jab, so we may not get that many more people having their first jab.

Better publicity of the amount of people in hospital without a covid jab might help, 75% according to Johnson. He doesn't say how many of the other 25% only had one jab.

Quote
The number of unvaccinated people ending up in hospital with Covid is "concerning", Boris Johnson has said.

Three quarters of those hospitalised had not had a Covid jab, with a "higher proportion" of younger people now being affected, he said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58494842

We also need to encourage as many people as possible to get a flu jab as well as their covid jabs to reduce the number of people in hospital with flu.

Socialising and exercising can be done outside if the weather is ok or if not in a well venitllated room , that would be one way to reduce the risk. The more dangerous activities are things like going to a nightclub, going to a pub, travelling abroad, going to a football game etc.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: checkoutgirl on September 09, 2021, 10:03:19 AM
I woke up in a pile of sweat the other night. I couldn't sleep and my lungs felt a tiny bit weird so naturally I started to panic a bit. This is it this is it. Temperature was normal so squeegeed myself off and eventually went back to sleep.

Was fine in the morning but it's that worry in the back of the mind. So many psychological issues happening. I was in a shop today was it there I got it? Was it the cinema on Saturday? Oh no I'm a gonner even though fully vaccinated. Argh!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on September 09, 2021, 10:48:53 AM
My guess would be that's less to do with different culture, and more to do with them actually getting out the house/country for the first time.

I did wonder this also - it’s hard to draw generalizations from 2 people and my observations may well be worthless. Still, I found them interesting so I shared them here though you’re right, I should add a massive “2 people does not equal a very good dataset” caveat.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on September 09, 2021, 07:18:47 PM
When it’s safe to do so. My fun should not contribute to another’s death, these are not notions that should ever be part of a balancing calculation.

You mean risk rather than contribute, and I think if you cast your mind back, or even just looked at it impassively, you have probably asympotmatically carried other diseases and unwittingly transmitted them to others, some of whom could have been particularly vulnerable to them, long before Covid came along. Some may have been treasured family members.

There is a balance of risk I'm afraid, the risks of mixing and morality around that is a grey area. Simple conscientious acts around others is good, but someone is looking at those people and going 'they should be indoors until this all passes over'...
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on September 09, 2021, 07:33:52 PM
You mean risk rather than contribute, and I think if you cast your mind back, or even just looked at it impassively, you have probably asympotmatically carried other diseases and unwittingly transmitted them to others, some of whom could have been particularly vulnerable to them, long before Covid came along. Some may have been treasured family members.

There is a balance of risk I'm afraid, the risks of mixing and morality around that is a grey area. Simple conscientious acts around others is good, but someone is looking at those people and going 'they should be indoors until this all passes over'...

Yes you’re right of course but some things are such an obvious imbalance in risk/benefit analysis that they shouldn’t be allowed e.g going to clubs, festivals, restaurants and the like. Can anyone argue that those type of activities are worth the risk of adding to the damage?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: katzenjammer on September 09, 2021, 08:14:59 PM
It looks like supply of the vaccine is the main issue holding things back

Do they announce vaccine deliveries in the UK?[1]It’s weird, at the start of the rollout they were all like ‘check us out with our gazillion vaccines whilst the EU have got fuck all. See how great Brexitlandia is?’ Now all the EU seem to have more than they know what to do with and have long since overtaken the UK. What happened?

 1. Like this (https://twitter.com/sanidadgob/status/1434780910965174272?s=20)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: JamesTC on September 09, 2021, 08:39:59 PM
We've sent 4 million unused Pfizer doses to Australia in a swap deal last week.

It seems demand is the constraint, not supply.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: evilcommiedictator on September 10, 2021, 02:36:43 AM
We've sent 4 million unused Pfizer doses to Australia in a swap deal last week.

It seems demand is the constraint, not supply.

Australia will give back 4 million later on - they'll expire before the UK can use them
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on September 10, 2021, 08:37:26 AM
Yes you’re right of course but some things are such an obvious imbalance in risk/benefit analysis that they shouldn’t be allowed e.g going to clubs, festivals, restaurants and the like. Can anyone argue that those type of activities are worth the risk of adding to the damage?

Could you argue that they shouldn't be allowed? How do you define the risk? Surely it's on the person asking for the measure to be put in place to prove the risk?

---


The latest BBC More or Less Podcast has some info on whether the vaccine effect is waning based on Israel data. (they might be but it's probably not a big deal ).

Vaccine waning, hot dogs and Afghanistan
More or Less: Behind the Stats
How worried should we be about antibodies? Plus food that shortens life.
 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p09v9z48)

I thought it was funny for them to to say that the data is hard to read as in Israel, because if you go to hospital for any reason and have symptoms for covid, they will do a test. If you test positive, then you're counted as a hospitalized covid case, even if you were hospitalized for something else, like a a heart attack.

Due to this, it's hard to get an accurate sense of covid hospitalizations.

Hasn't this been the case all along? Even in the UK? If you have a positive test when in hospital, it's counted as a covid hospitalization? Same as if you die within 28 days of a positive test it's a covid death?

It's weird how this is now looked at, whereas before vaccines anyone who queried it was a covid denier.

It also said that Pfizer wanes faster than AZ so after about 5 months they are about the same, but Pfizer could continue to wane, making it worse than AZ.

UK 1 - US 0.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pranet on September 10, 2021, 12:21:06 PM
On More Or Less they mentioned, briefly, that when you are in hospital and you have covid symptoms they test you for covid, as one of the factors "muddying the waters" when you try to draw a link between covid hospital numbers and waning immunity.

It has always been the obvious case that some people who had covid were in hospital for other reasons that the covid, and indeed that some people caught covid in hospital. Saying that would not get you called a covid denier. Saying that and then going on to say that this proves covid conspiracy theories would get you called a covid denier.

Ref pfizer waning, they were talking about antibodies, which are only part of the protection given by the vaccine.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on September 12, 2021, 10:24:44 AM
True.

A big chunk of people caught covid in hospital so it's not a trivial amount of people in the covid hospitalizations column who were in hospital for something else but tested positive while in there.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/26/40600-people-likely-caught-covid-while-hospital-inpatients-in-england

One in seven patients treated for Covid between 1 August 2020 and 21 March got it while in hospital
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on September 12, 2021, 10:38:50 AM
I'm not sure how that's relevant. It doesn't change that it kills people, as shown by the excess mortality numbers.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on September 12, 2021, 03:39:41 PM
I think we’ve already established that no fucks are given about people dying. ‘We have to get back to normal!’ is the new ‘get Brexit done!’ it seems.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on September 15, 2021, 12:32:06 PM
Winter fuckdown is coming.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/14/bring-in-measures-soon-or-risk-7000-daily-covid-cases-sage-warns

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on September 15, 2021, 12:53:16 PM
Get in. I've agreed to 'go to the darts' at Ally Pally on the 16th of Dec and I really hope it gets cancelled because I don't want to go.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: The Culture Bunker on September 15, 2021, 02:19:15 PM
I think we’ve already established that no fucks are given about people dying. ‘We have to get back to normal!’ is the new ‘get Brexit done!’ it seems.
Staff email from the boss for us today with the line "Returning to site needs to be a priority for all", so, yeah.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on September 15, 2021, 02:22:13 PM
Get in. I've agreed to 'go to the darts' at Ally Pally on the 16th of Dec and I really hope it gets cancelled because I don't want to go.

I’m delighted the trip to the Montréal Grand Prix in June 2020 was similarly axed.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: poo on September 15, 2021, 03:19:07 PM
Christmas is over. Forever.


Yes!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on September 15, 2021, 08:21:08 PM
I wouldn’t mind. Last Christmas it was by necessity just the four of us, and it was brilliant. My youngest being autistic means she hates crowds and a big family meal inevitably sees her go and eat in her own. But instead we all sat at the table together, she laughed and joked and joined in. I know I won’t see many more Christmases with my parents so should make the most of it, but that Christmas Day meal with my little girl there and enjoying herself is a memory to treasure and I’d like more. Apols for being soppy!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MrMrs on September 15, 2021, 11:18:30 PM
That's beautiful
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on September 16, 2021, 01:32:15 AM
Christmas is over. Forever.


Yes!

Finally a positive side to COVID!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: chveik on September 16, 2021, 02:13:45 AM
I wouldn’t mind. Last Christmas it was by necessity just the four of us, and it was brilliant. My youngest being autistic means she hates crowds and a big family meal inevitably sees her go and eat in her own. But instead we all sat at the table together, she laughed and joked and joined in. I know I won’t see many more Christmases with my parents so should make the most of it, but that Christmas Day meal with my little girl there and enjoying herself is a memory to treasure and I’d like more. Apols for being soppy!

nah that's lovely
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on September 16, 2021, 10:31:47 AM
I know positivity isn't encouraged here, but new cases are dropping rapidly. 7 day average on the 5th was 38925, and on the 12th 29173, and the dailies since then seem to be continuing the trend. That's a 25% drop in a week. I'm not saying the case rate won't go up again, but considering that's with no restrictions it does look like we've reached the self limiting point with covid.

Lets hope it's low enough that the number in hospital starts going down...
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: poo on September 16, 2021, 12:11:31 PM
I wouldn’t mind. Last Christmas it was by necessity just the four of us, and it was brilliant. My youngest being autistic means she hates crowds and a big family meal inevitably sees her go and eat in her own. But instead we all sat at the table together, she laughed and joked and joined in. I know I won’t see many more Christmases with my parents so should make the most of it, but that Christmas Day meal with my little girl there and enjoying herself is a memory to treasure and I’d like more. Apols for being soppy!


Also had a great Christmas in the immediate family bubble 👍
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on September 16, 2021, 12:37:51 PM
I know positivity isn't encouraged here, but new cases are dropping rapidly. 7 day average on the 5th was 38925, and on the 12th 29173, and the dailies since then seem to be continuing the trend. That's a 25% drop in a week. I'm not saying the case rate won't go up again, but considering that's with no restrictions it does look like we've reached the self limiting point with covid.

Lets hope it's low enough that the number in hospital starts going down...

Have you read the report? They are saying the plateau in cases (taken over a longer period than 7 days) is a consequence of home working and people being outdoors more in their leisure time, and the numbers are still shocking, 1000+ dying a week even in summer.

We are entering autumn with more cases than we had last year, more people in hospital than this time last year and a series of conditions which encourage infection, along with a back to the office push which means more commuting and more people in the same buildings during worse weather.

The existing level of infections and their effect on hospitalisations which continue increasing are easily sufficient to break the NHS by December even if none of the above factors tell on the figures.

It isn't about positivity or negativity. I was dismayed to see how quickly cases rose even before the final measures were removed
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on September 16, 2021, 01:05:43 PM
Scottish government considering bringing in the military to help the ambulance service.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: poo on September 16, 2021, 01:07:14 PM
Sage predicting 7,000 hospitalisations per day at the next expected peak mid-late Oct. contrasts with what is going on right now with rates falling across all age groups in most parts of UK. Not cold yet though is it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: poo on September 16, 2021, 01:09:02 PM
What to do then?


Frig like christing cunting fuck while you’ve got the lungs.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on September 16, 2021, 01:15:53 PM
Scottish government considering bringing in the military to help the ambulance service.

Unless they're going to dig mass graves out the back of the hospitals to speed discharges up, I can't see how they're going to have much impact after the first couple of hours.

(It'd be good practice for the death squads as well.)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on September 16, 2021, 01:16:12 PM
Sage predicting 7,000 hospitalisations per day at the next expected peak mid-late Oct. contrasts with what is going on right now with rates falling across all age groups in most parts of UK. Not cold yet though is it.

Well they’re saying there might be 2k-7k at a peak of a hypothetical wave (if it happens).

I’m not saying it won’t, but Sage is hardly saying “7k a day definitely” is nailed on either, for whatever that’s worth.

Frig like christing cunting fuck while you’ve got the lungs.

That’s my plan. Cases rocketing up again here, boy at home with a 104f fever pending our PCR tests, trying to work and do my MA all at the same time, in the shit, loving it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: poo on September 16, 2021, 01:22:05 PM
No sorry that was the mid-range scenario
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on September 16, 2021, 01:27:50 PM
No sorry that was the mid-range scenario

Was it? Fuckdown Forecast has been updated since last I looked!

Full speed ahead, I say.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on September 16, 2021, 03:04:29 PM
We are entering autumn with more cases than we had last year, more people in hospital than this time last year and a series of conditions which encourage infection, along with a back to the office push which means more commuting and more people in the same buildings during worse weather.

Comparing in this fashion doesn't really make sense, and it's the rate of change that's more important than absolute numbers. Yes, the Sage report is worrying, but sage were also predicting 10000 admissions a day by the beginning of August - which isn't to say it should be ignored, just not to abandon all hope. And yes, everything isn't fine and dandy, the number in hospital needs start going down instead of up.

What is true is that instead of all the numbers steadily creeping up seeming to point to an inevitable wave and lockdown, one of the numbers is going down, leading to some hope that we might be through the worst of it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Alberon on September 16, 2021, 03:19:10 PM
No one really knows what a vaccinated Autumn and Winter look like yet. In the spring we'll have a much better idea of what the future will be like.

I'm not that fearful, but I expect we'll be bumping along at a 1,000 dead a week for a long while yet.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on September 16, 2021, 03:37:03 PM
Looking at the NHSE death stats, they don't look much different in terms of proportion by age to how they have always looked.

Aren't most older people vaccinated now so are these people who have been vaccinated but are still vulnerable dying?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on September 16, 2021, 04:35:38 PM
Quote
What is true is that instead of all the numbers steadily creeping up seeming to point to an inevitable wave and lockdown, one of the numbers is going down, leading to some hope that we might be through the worst of it.

I'm afraid such short term data is so limited in use that it doesn't and shouldn't provide me with any particular confidence until that is backed up over time and resilient through the pressure factors heading into Autumn and Winter.

The fact that SAGE and the UK government have gone so early on it this time either shows an unusual and unprecedented organisation on the UK governments part for expectation management, or it really is fuckdown of some sort or other this Christmas. I am inclined to believe the latter and that 'Plan B' will be enacted, along with a new Plan C they will invent. Just a prediction though.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on September 16, 2021, 05:20:24 PM
Looking at the NHSE death stats, they don't look much different in terms of proportion by age to how they have always looked.

Aren't most older people vaccinated now so are these people who have been vaccinated but are still vulnerable dying?

The vaccines reduce your risk of dying so it's still going to look similar in terms of who was dying before. Just less people from each group dying.

I read that a healthy vaxxed 80 year old now has the same risk of dying as an unvaxxed 40 year old. If true, those healthy 80 year old won't be dying, but unhealthy ones are probably still in trouble.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on September 16, 2021, 05:28:23 PM
No one really knows what a vaccinated Autumn and Winter look like yet. In the spring we'll have a much better idea of what the future will be like.

I'm not that fearful, but I expect we'll be bumping along at a 1,000 dead a week for a long while yet.

Someone (Zet?) mentioned the “harvest rates” a few pages back. I wonder if that comes into play at any point (ie a lot of vulnerable have already been bumped off so there’s a smaller pool of at risk people floating about and death rates and total numbers will be lower).

When are schools back in the UK? Are they there already?

Edit: lazy Ferris, had a google. Yeah they’ve been back ~2 weeks so the next few weeks will be telling in terms of cases and spreading. Over the undetectable honeymoon phase now.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on September 18, 2021, 02:03:13 PM
Obesity is well up over the lock downs so I'm sure there are plenty of newly vulnerable people to harvest.

It's practically the pandemic of the obese as it is.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on September 18, 2021, 02:17:36 PM
Surely these new "as used by Trump" drugs will help matters.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on September 18, 2021, 03:29:59 PM
Monoclonal antibodies are now approved and available (well we’ll see) in most western countries and are very effective in treating infected people.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on September 18, 2021, 04:31:12 PM
Obesity is well up over the lock downs so I'm sure there are plenty of newly vulnerable people to harvest.

It's practically the pandemic of the obese as it is.

It really isn't practically the pandemic of the obese. Yes, obese people are more at risk than the non obese but there are millions of clinically vulnerable and clinically extremely vulnerable people who arent obese who are still at great risk despite having had two jabs. And of course many elderly people will still be at risk despite having had two jabs.

Them we have the 19% or so of people who haven't had two jabs yet.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on September 18, 2021, 04:35:24 PM
Some dickhead constantly coughing with his face mask down on my train. My station is the next stop, not sure what more I can do.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: chveik on September 18, 2021, 04:40:27 PM
fucking kill him
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on September 18, 2021, 05:06:41 PM
Alright Steve Albini, we're all upset
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on September 18, 2021, 05:09:47 PM
So is Christmas going to be fucked down then? What's the word?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Alberon on September 18, 2021, 05:26:28 PM
It is. Unfortunately you will be allowed to spend it with your extended family.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on September 18, 2021, 06:11:13 PM
Bollocks.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on September 20, 2021, 10:45:05 AM
Cases continuing to fall, and now admissions starting to drop as well. Lets hope it continues enough that the actual number in hospital starts going down instead of up.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on September 20, 2021, 11:27:42 AM
Been coming down nicely but seems to be levelling off again from what I saw.  Long as it's not up like we all feared when the kids went back.

All seemed to coincide with the Indian Summer..

Mask wearing definitely not a thing any more.  I still wear one in the shops but am an extreme minority, like about 1 in 50.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Uncle TechTip on September 20, 2021, 12:03:33 PM
Here in Chester it's still strong. It's gradually fading away but still at least 1 in 2. Me, I "keep" "forgetting" mine but promise to try harder. Often I'm the only one.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on September 20, 2021, 12:47:47 PM
Cases continuing to fall, and now admissions starting to drop as well. Lets hope it continues enough that the actual number in hospital starts going down instead of up.

What's more important to focus on is what is currently driving that and what relevance that has to what's coming up in the months ahead.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on September 20, 2021, 06:57:08 PM
Mask wearing definitely not a thing any more.  I still wear one in the shops but am an extreme minority, like about 1 in 50.

Likewise. None of the general cunt population bothers anymore.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on September 21, 2021, 01:35:19 PM
Christmas lock down incoming

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/20/boris-johnson-refuses-to-rule-out-christmas-covid-disruption
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on September 21, 2021, 02:10:13 PM
Well he's right not to rule it out, it doesn't mean it's likely to happen.

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on September 21, 2021, 02:12:28 PM
Quote
Unions are warning that mask wearing on public transport has dropped significantly since it no longer became a legal requirement in England in July.

The proportion of people using face coverings at major railway stations is estimated to have slumped from around 80% to around 20%.

A government spokesperson said the lifting of restrictions relied on people taking "personal responsibility".

"The guidance is clear that people are expected and recommended to wear a mask when they come into contact with people they don’t normally meet in enclosed and crowded spaces.

“It is open to transport operators to decide if they want to implement their own policies, working within their particular environment.”..

It's laughable how they are pushing the responsibility onto transport providers. It was hard enough to get people who can wear masks to wear masks when you legally had to, and now the "people should wear masks in certain situations but if they don't nothing will happen" advice is clearly there so the government can avoid alienating their anti-mask base while claiming they are doing something.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: frajer on September 21, 2021, 02:23:37 PM
Quote from: Govt Tosspot
"The guidance is clear that people are expected and recommended to wear a mask when they come into contact with people they don’t normally meet in enclosed and crowded spaces."

Is it fuck clear. I know what to expect by now but there's still a genuine spike in my blood pressure when I read this wilfully disingenuous bollocks.

I had to take a train for work last month, the first time I'd been on one since Feb 2020. I was dreading it and it turned out exactly as I feared. Staff were wearing masks but I was one of only 3 people in the (busy) carriage wearing one. No matter what the infection and death rates are, the government are intent on normalising people being maskless and it's working like a charm.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on September 21, 2021, 02:28:38 PM
And now with the weather getting colder windows on buses are being opened even less than they are now.

I know people who are CV who have to spend money on taxis because they don't feel safe on buses and trains due to the lack of masks, thereby costing them three times the price. It's revolting how CV and CEV people are being treated by the government, with much of the general public accepting it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Endicott on September 21, 2021, 02:45:49 PM
I spent last week in Wales, where masks are still mandatory. The difference was pretty striking.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Huxleys Babkins on September 21, 2021, 03:06:50 PM
I spent last week in Wales

Will the horror of this pandemic never end???
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on September 21, 2021, 03:07:01 PM
Well he's right not to rule it out, it doesn't mean it's likely to happen.

Yeah this.  The papers pull this shit all the time.  "Hey Mr Johnson, we heard the government has plans for what to do in the event of global thermonuclear war!  Would you rule this out?"  "Well, we have to plan for every eventuality no matter how extreme but.... "  "WILL YOU RULE IT OUT MISTER PRIME MINISTER?"  "Well, no that would be irres-"

Headline - PM: Global thermonuclear war "not ruled out" as post-Brexit negotiations continue
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on September 21, 2021, 08:44:59 PM
Quote
The guidance is clear that people are expected and recommended to wear a mask when they come into contact with people they don’t normally meet in enclosed and crowded spaces.

Honestly, what the fuck sort of sense is this supposed to make? They really seem to be pushing this idea that if it's people you know and see regularly, it'll be fine, you can't get Covid from them. How are we supposed to take seriously any guidance they give when they come out with this utter nonsense?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on September 21, 2021, 09:02:05 PM
They've been doing stuff like that all through the pandemic.

Those ads about joggers in parks that got banned springs to mind.

Too much bullshit and not enough data makes it hard to take any of it seriously.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on September 24, 2021, 10:33:16 AM
So, the number of people in hospital with covid is starting to fall. Unfortunately the drop in case numbers seems to have bottomed out - hopefully they don't start rising again.

With reference to stress on the NHS, this is useful https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
On the 2nd of September, 6186 patients in (English) NHS beds with confirmed covid. That's out of a total of 120,538 beds occupied. Considering that a significant amount of those 6186 will be in hospital with covid, not because of covid, my naive look suggests that covid is causing well under a 1% increase in bed usage.

This is of course a very naive look at things, and doesn't consider staffing or how the extra cases are distributed, or the huge backlog or indeed anything in any detail*, but it is a happy number all the same.


)include any other regioons of the UK out of sheer laziness)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on September 24, 2021, 11:35:40 AM
Too much bullshit and not enough data makes it hard to take any of it seriously.

You got that right 😂😂😂
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on September 24, 2021, 12:20:00 PM
So, the number of people in hospital with covid is starting to fall. Unfortunately the drop in case numbers seems to have bottomed out - hopefully they don't start rising again.

With reference to stress on the NHS, this is useful https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
On the 2nd of September, 6186 patients in (English) NHS beds with confirmed covid. That's out of a total of 120,538 beds occupied. Considering that a significant amount of those 6186 will be in hospital with covid, not because of covid, my naive look suggests that covid is causing well under a 1% increase in bed usage.

This is of course a very naive look at things, and doesn't consider staffing or how the extra cases are distributed, or the huge backlog or indeed anything in any detail*, but it is a happy number all the same.


)include any other regioons of the UK out of sheer laziness)

6186/120,538 = ~5.1% of all beds. A little over 1 in 20 of the people actively consuming NHS hospital resources are doing so as a result of covid based off those numbers.

Not a disaster but hardly an insignificant amount either.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on September 24, 2021, 12:32:13 PM
Shit, not sure how I fucked that up.

It's worth noting that many of those 6000 would be in hospital if they didn't have covid - they are in hospital with covid, not because of it. This is especially true after vaccines. I could try and find normal hospital numbers from before the pandemic to see how they compare, but I think at that point it becomes a bit meaningless unless you start looking at a load of other factors like waiting lists.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on September 24, 2021, 12:48:24 PM
Yeah. Aren't 40 percent of cases caught in hospital so a good chunk of those in there now would be in there any ways.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on September 24, 2021, 01:13:36 PM
No they fucking wouldn’t. Testing positive while visiting hospital (whether as an outpatient or inpatient, and regardless of the reason you’re there, be it wholly unrelated to COVID or for symptoms requiring hospitalisation which have not yet been confirmed as the virus) does not mean automatic admission as an inpatient. That’s a weak attempt even for you.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on September 24, 2021, 01:44:54 PM
40 percent of cases caught in hospital

??
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on September 24, 2021, 03:09:12 PM
So, the number of people in hospital with covid is starting to fall. Unfortunately the drop in case numbers seems to have bottomed out - hopefully they don't start rising again.

With reference to stress on the NHS, this is useful https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
On the 2nd of September, 6186 patients in (English) NHS beds with confirmed covid. That's out of a total of 120,538 beds occupied. Considering that a significant amount of those 6186 will be in hospital with covid, not because of covid, my naive look suggests that covid is causing well under a 1% increase in bed usage.

This is of course a very naive look at things, and doesn't consider staffing or how the extra cases are distributed, or the huge backlog or indeed anything in any detail*, but it is a happy number all the same.


)include any other regioons of the UK out of sheer laziness)

Yes but cases had been going down. They are now going up again so I expect, with a week or two delay, hospital figures will too. Hope I'm wrong.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Endicott on September 24, 2021, 04:59:03 PM
Yes but cases had been going down. They are now going up again so I expect, with a week or two delay, hospital figures will too. Hope I'm wrong.

Agreed. It seems quite a bit premature to start thinking hospitals can relax.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pranet on September 24, 2021, 05:27:18 PM
Also, the number of patients that end up in an ICU is an important number. The total number of admissions for covid may be a low percentage of total admissions, but if a large proportion of those people end up in an ICU then that has knock on effects on other services, on staffing... It is currently going down, but as others have said, that is because the number of cases was going down, and now it is going up again...

Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: SpiderChrist on September 24, 2021, 06:29:39 PM
Yeah. Aren't 40 percent of cases caught in hospital so a good chunk of those in there now would be in there any ways.

Is that another statistic that you've pulled out of your gaping arsehole? Pack it in - we all know what you're about.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on September 24, 2021, 07:06:51 PM
Funny to see people finally cotton onto our inquisitive friend after all these months 😂😂😂
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on September 25, 2021, 10:54:28 AM
Agreed. It seems quite a bit premature to start thinking hospitals can relax.

Mate, we can all wail and gnash are teeth when the next wave arrives. All I'm trying to do is balance that out by pointing out when the numbers are looking good.

It is a bit annoying when that gets jumped on for other purposes.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on September 29, 2021, 10:59:02 AM
Looks like we might reach a steady state of bouncing around between 30-40k cases a day. Hopefully. Colder weather starting to come in, will be interesting to see how that changes things.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on September 30, 2021, 12:15:19 AM
Dead by Xmas.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on September 30, 2021, 05:42:05 PM
Not the first time there's been someone coughing on the bus near me without a mask but the first time they've turned round and glared at me for moving to the back of the bus after the fourth cough to try and avoid getting their germs. They then stopped coughing for the rest of their journey.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Bernice on October 01, 2021, 07:51:32 AM
Got my second cold (hopefully nothing more) in the space of a month. My body is unused to the pathogenic soup that is London's public transport system.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on October 02, 2021, 04:55:52 PM
B
Quote
Britain’s current Covid infection rate is by far the highest in western Europe and is only exceeded by a handful of countries around the world, latest research reveals.

The UK’s average daily reported cases on stood at 52 per 100,000 population on Friday, according to the respected Johns Hopkins University in the US.

That puts the country 14th out of more than 200 states in a global list of Covid infection rates – well above the likes of the US, Canada and the whole of western Europe, as well as other former global “hotspots” such as India and Brazil...

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-covid-infection-rate-global-comparison-johns-hopkins-who-b958154.html?

Still, wages are growing according to our red-handed death cult leader, so it's all fine.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on October 02, 2021, 06:28:38 PM
Infection rate isn't very important compared to hospitalisation and death rates. We're all going to get it, probably several times.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on October 02, 2021, 06:34:00 PM
Imagine what a fucking mess this would be without vaccines.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pranet on October 02, 2021, 06:40:57 PM
Yes I remember at the start of this thing there were articles saying well it will be five years before there is a vaccine and that is if we get one at all.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Alberon on October 02, 2021, 10:37:39 PM
Had to pop into town this afternoon. Mask wearing was at 5% at best. Will be doing most of my shopping online as much as possible in the near future.

So where's it going to end up compared to the flu deaths per year? Will the deaths be equal to flu deaths, more or less? Or will it end up just taking mostly those who would have died of flu?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on October 02, 2021, 11:04:28 PM
Every account I read about the UK from family and friends (and on here) makes me more appreciative of where I am. I try not to mention it because it seems shitty like I’m doing a victory lap or something, but there you go.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on October 02, 2021, 11:06:52 PM
On my own with the youngest this weekend so tonight she asked if we could go to Slim Chicken. Went into Bristol but there was no way, the shopping mall was heaving and the queue for SC was out the door. So I used Deliveroo to order a pickup, went in and got it, took it home.

From the time I parked to the time I drive out of the multi-storey, didn’t see one mask. Apart from the one I put on.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: beanheadmcginty on October 03, 2021, 11:37:53 AM
I'm quite fascinated by all the complaints about non-mask wearing on here. Not because I disagree, but because I live in Amsterdam where not a single fucker has worn a mask since July. Honestly. Absolutely no one wears a mask anywhere. When I popped back to the UK in August I was stunned by how much mask wearing was going on. Seriously, you should be at least a bit appreciative that you see anybody whatsoever wearing a mask.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on October 03, 2021, 11:47:30 AM
Given that the rest of the world seems to be able to wear masks without complaining unless medically exempt, I don't understand why it is so hard for people who aren't medically exempt in the UK (in particular England), parts of the USA and The Netherlands to wear masks. I do recognise that wearing masks is almost impossible for a small minority of people who are medically exempt.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on October 03, 2021, 12:08:42 PM
I'm quite fascinated by all the complaints about non-mask wearing on here. Not because I disagree, but because I live in Amsterdam where not a single fucker has worn a mask since July. Honestly. Absolutely no one wears a mask anywhere. When I popped back to the UK in August I was stunned by how much mask wearing was going on. Seriously, you should be at least a bit appreciative that you see anybody whatsoever wearing a mask.

I have immediate family in Amsterdam, this sounds about right. They’re treating it like a bit of a laugh, essentially.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on October 03, 2021, 02:09:03 PM
I’m very appreciative whenever I see somebody wearing a mask. It’s just there seem to be increasingly (it would it be decreasingly?) fewer opportunities to do so.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: buttgammon on October 03, 2021, 03:07:36 PM
I have a friend in Amsterdam who sounded shocked when I explained what the restrictions were like in Ireland  for most of this year.

For what it’s worth, mask wearing is still very much the norm here. It was a bit of a shock when I went to England last month.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: QDRPHNC on October 03, 2021, 03:27:07 PM
Every account I read about the UK from family and friends (and on here) makes me more appreciative of where I am. I try not to mention it because it seems shitty like I’m doing a victory lap or something, but there you go.

I was thinking that too. We're having our problems with anti-vaxxers too of course, but the last few days I've been all over the city on streetcars, buses and trains and the one unmasked person I saw was a homeless guy on the subway asking for change.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on October 03, 2021, 06:00:19 PM
I was thinking that too. We're having our problems with anti-vaxxers too of course, but the last few days I've been all over the city on streetcars, buses and trains and the one unmasked person I saw was a homeless guy on the subway asking for change.

I’ve seen one guy in 18 months not wearing a mask inside and he clearly wasn’t playing with a full deck so a kindly person calmed him down and did his shopping for him, for which he was very grateful and then he continued off on his merry way.

Our mask mandate is staying for the foreseeable future and vaccine take up has been excellent - I think NS is one of the most heavily vaccinated jurisdictions in the world by some distance. I really can’t complain, but I don’t want to bang on about it here because I know the UK is going a different route and posters on here are (understandably) various levels of anxious about it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MrMrs on October 03, 2021, 11:51:09 PM
Ns?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cold Meat Platter on October 03, 2021, 11:54:09 PM
Scottish chap from central Scotland here and everyone is wearing masks with no hassle cheers. Literally no one on buses or in shops without.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on October 03, 2021, 11:59:24 PM
Ns?

Nova Scotia, I believe.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on October 04, 2021, 12:22:09 AM
Nova Scotia, I believe.

Sorry yes, Nova Scotia.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: DrGreggles on October 04, 2021, 08:23:05 AM
But that's not even a real place.

EDIT: Sorry, I was thinking of Narnia
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: buttgammon on October 04, 2021, 10:26:47 AM
I actually know two people from Nova Scotia. Pretty much all the other Canadians I've met have been from Toronto or thereabouts (and my old hairdresser was from Winnipeg), so I can confirm that it does exist, contrary to expectations.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: mothman on October 04, 2021, 01:06:44 PM
But that's not even a real place.

EDIT: Sorry, I was thinking of Narnia

I have my suspicions about Newfoundland. Was there an Oldfoundland? And even if not, surely it’s not really New anymore, so could just be Foundland? Or is the process ongoing, with New bits of Land being Found all the time? Surely they’ve Found it all by now?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Endicott on October 04, 2021, 01:38:19 PM
They are really really disorganised.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on October 04, 2021, 05:29:55 PM
PCSOs got on my train today not wearing face masks. I'd say about 50% of the train staff I saw were wearing masks.

The public transport companies seem to be mainly succeeding at pushing people who don't want to get covid into using their car. It's shameful how English society has capitulated to people who don't want to wear a mask for 30 minutes on a train while giving a bit "fuck you" to CV and CEV people. (And yes I know some people can't wear a mask, that's not who I'm talking about here).
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on October 05, 2021, 12:32:15 PM
nm
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on October 09, 2021, 04:58:30 PM
Stage for people busking at Paddington station, one bloke singing as people walked past to trains, seems like a good way to spread covid.

Also saw someone wearing a mesh mask, I presume so it looks like they are wearing a mask even though it wont protect them.

Looks like flu could be a massive issue for the NHS this winter so would advise everyone who can to get their flu jab.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Big Mclargehuge on October 09, 2021, 11:45:36 PM
Stage for people busking at Paddington station, one bloke singing as people walked past to trains, seems like a good way to spread covid.

Also saw someone wearing a mesh mask, I presume so it looks like they are wearing a mask even though it wont protect them.

Looks like flu could be a massive issue for the NHS this winter so would advise everyone who can to get their flu jab.

Got mine today, I'm taking no chances with all the twattery going on at the moment. I'm having a VERY serious debate with myself whether to go to my first gig in 2 years in a couple of weeks. I bought the tickets before all this kicked off and its finally been rescheduled. But given how many people arnt wearing masks now I don't know if I wanna risk it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: v00n on October 10, 2021, 08:38:43 AM
Have you been double-vaxxed? If not; don't go. Otherwise, do.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Uncle TechTip on October 10, 2021, 11:21:00 AM
Even if you're vaxxed you're going to get it some time; that's the nature of a novel virus. But you will tend to get a less severe reaction and less chance you'll spread it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Dr Rock on October 10, 2021, 05:12:13 PM
Can I have my spinal tap soon?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Big Mclargehuge on October 10, 2021, 10:34:42 PM
Have you been double-vaxxed? If not; don't go. Otherwise, do.

I have been double vaxxed. And I realise its ultimately a case of when, not if. I've just been trying to be as careful as possible and part of me feels like going to a large gathering like this would rather be tempting fate, but I would like to see this band...I'm still trying to feel things out honestly
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on October 10, 2021, 10:37:13 PM
I suppose it's a case of does your concern for your health or health of people you will be in contact with supercede your desire to see this band. If it does, don't go. If it doesn't, go.


Flip a coin.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on October 11, 2021, 09:35:57 AM
I suppose it's a case of does your concern for your health or health of people you will be in contact with supercede your desire to see this band. If it does, don't go. If it doesn't, go.
That's being overly negative. The point is there is a very small chance that going will have a negative impact on anyone's health. They're not selling their families kidney to go.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on October 11, 2021, 09:59:33 AM
That's being overly negative. The point is there is a very small chance that going will have a negative impact on anyone's health. They're not selling their families kidney to go.

I didnt see it as positive or negative really, just a statement of fact.

If you go, there's more of a risk, if you don't, there's less of a risk.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on October 11, 2021, 11:41:27 AM
The way you stated it across as "Go to the gig if you don't care about your family and friends health". It is unlikely that going to the gig will have any affect on anyone's health.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on October 11, 2021, 12:05:19 PM
The virus isn't spreading anymore?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on October 11, 2021, 12:13:14 PM
It's not going to get any better than this. Unless you plan to live the rest of your life in a bunker you have to accept that covid is something that you are going to get.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on October 11, 2021, 12:20:15 PM
Now that feels somewhat negative.

I havent had it yet and i dont plan to.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on October 11, 2021, 01:05:55 PM
I also haven't had it and intend not to get it. The latter will get easier as the pandemic subsides and the virus fucks off, but the flatline persistence of UK cases is a concern. People are behaving now as if this is all over, but it patently isn't, hence the continuation of new infection cases, I guess. The UK is second only to the US in new cases now. Unimpressive.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: George Oscar Bluth II on October 11, 2021, 02:12:06 PM
Yeah I wonder if there's a case for *some* kind of mitigation measures, ie half full events or table service only or something to get cases down. Far better to be bumping along at 3,000 a day instead of 30,000. The rest of Europe seems to be managing it, what's wrong with us?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on October 11, 2021, 02:23:20 PM
Hospitalizations are no longer decreasing and I expect they will start to increase as cases did a couple of weeks ago.

Still, fuck it.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on October 11, 2021, 02:59:37 PM
There's good reason to think hospitalizations won't go up, as most cases at the moment are school age kids. But yeah, it would be good if there were a fewer people in hospital.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on October 11, 2021, 03:28:38 PM
It seems really odd that the UK is bucking the trend of peaks and troughs in cases. Everywhere else is a mad roller coaster, Britain keeps on trucking at the same level for months at a time.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on October 11, 2021, 04:13:24 PM
40,000 again today. plus vaccination rates are pathetic
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on October 11, 2021, 04:33:38 PM
Yeah I wonder if there's a case for *some* kind of mitigation measures

I don't. I know there's a case for it. You can hear the case every Friday in the Independent Sage briefings on YouTube. But it won't happen unless/until the number of hospitalisations and/or deaths reaches a level higher than the government thinks they can get away with brushing under the carpet.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Old Thrashbarg on October 11, 2021, 05:26:09 PM
40,000 again today. plus vaccination rates are pathetic

Worth pointing out that the government website dashboard doesn't show the third-jab boosters in their vaccination figures. 250k was yesterday's total for those.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on October 11, 2021, 05:27:38 PM
Oh okay. Thanks
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: SpiderChrist on October 11, 2021, 06:27:04 PM
It's not going to get any better than this. Unless you plan to live the rest of your life in a bunker you have to accept that covid is something that you are going to get.

That's a comfort. My underlying health condition (asthma) means that it might well kill me.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: stonkers on October 11, 2021, 07:30:43 PM
Now that feels somewhat negative.

I havent had it yet and i dont plan to.

You might very well have had it and been asymptomatic, especially if you've been vaccinated.

It's not going anywhere, it's transitioning into being an endemic virus. Saying otherwise at this point makes about as much sense as being an antivaxxer. 
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on October 12, 2021, 12:14:48 PM
UK vaccine rates are one of the lowest in the West now, and our cases are the highest, second only to the US. Boris is on holiday and everyone is behaving as if it's over. It is not over, and once again the UK government is failing badly on Covid.

Where's Wally? I mean Boris. Lazy fuck.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: bgmnts on October 12, 2021, 01:15:51 PM
You might very well have had it and been asymptomatic, especially if you've been vaccinated.

It's not going anywhere, it's transitioning into being an endemic virus. Saying otherwise at this point makes about as much sense as being an antivaxxer.

As someone with breathing difficulties and a raging dry cough for years I dont want to take that chance to be honest.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on October 12, 2021, 04:45:05 PM
As someone with breathing difficulties and a raging dry cough for years I dont want to take that chance to be honest.

Sensible. Can’t believe how blasé people are about catching it, it’s fucking horrible.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cloud on October 13, 2021, 01:10:59 AM
It's a really tough balance.  I don't want it either, I've heard too many "I'm double vaxxed but it was the worst thing I've had" stories, plus concern for the folks.  But also I see the side that it's never going away, there's absolutely no sign of it dropping below 35k/day any time soon, 30k seems to be the floor without restrictions  (plus doubling time is now calculated at just over a month if you follow the Reddit boffins) and well... we've done pretty much all we can. I don't intend to avoid living the rest of my life just out of fear of getting ill / dying.  Of course, as I get more into bigger scale socialisation I'll be sure to offer to live alone, continue to be careful in shops, and honestly no one cares at work.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on October 13, 2021, 03:37:09 AM
UK vaccine rates are one of the lowest in the West now, and our cases are the highest, second only to the US. Boris is on holiday and everyone is behaving as if it's over. It is not over, and once again the UK government is failing badly on Covid.

Where's Wally? I mean Boris. Lazy fuck.

Also the whole 'cases are stabilising' based on a few weeks. Just untrue and seemingly motivated by wishful thinking. Cases have been volatile but worse is that general direction is up, just with the dip after the Euros.

All the same, hospitalisations are stabilising and deaths are potentially falling, though I am anticipating a big winter wave still.

I do think we should aim for a higher bar than 'well you didn't end up in hospital so its fine'. A crippling debilitating illness that's worse than flu isn't something to be blasé about even for a fit and healthy person.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on October 13, 2021, 09:54:04 AM
Is it worse than flu if you're vaxxed up though? I thought it general it wasn't, although it obviously varies person to person.

I'm not sure we will see a winter surge - yes, the seasons do have some impact, but it's relatively small. And to balance that out, the vast majority of cases now are in the under vaccinated school kids group. Once they've all had it (or preferably jabbed, but not much effort seems to be going into that), new cases should drop as pretty much everyone will have antibodies.

A winter lock down might be a good idea because of flu though.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: SpiderChrist on October 13, 2021, 10:24:38 AM
Is it worse than flu if you're vaxxed up though? I thought it general it wasn't, although it obviously varies person to person

Next door neighbour got hospitalised with it last night (late 40s, no underlying health issues, double vaxxed, etc.).

Quote
I do think we should aim for a higher bar than 'well you didn't end up in hospital so its fine'. A crippling debilitating illness that's worse than flu isn't something to be blasé about even for a fit and healthy person.

Well, quite.

Got invited to a 50th birthday party at someone's house and was decidedly wary about going. Have now discovered that the hosts are currently holidaying in Gran Canaria with another couple who will also be at the party. Fuck that.

This pandemic has done a right number on my mental health.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on October 13, 2021, 10:31:27 AM
My mental health was never better during lockdown, but has taken a dive since we were all supposed to start pretending COVID can't hurt you any more.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: SpiderChrist on October 13, 2021, 10:54:24 AM
My mental health was never better during lockdown, but has taken a dive since we were all supposed to start pretending COVID can't hurt you any more.

Yeah I think that's when mine took a nosedive.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Big Mclargehuge on October 13, 2021, 01:21:00 PM
Yeah I think that's when mine took a nosedive.

Mines on the way, not for the cognative dissonence. But just for the painfully repetative arguements im having to have with friends, colleagues and family about why Im still not going out and doing stuff. Im having quite a heated back and forth with my family at the minute around christmas arrangements. They want a knees up with the whole family for 2-3 days on the bounce and seem VERY offended when I told them that as early as last christmas I said that if things wernt "Done." I probably wouldnt be doing anything with them this year either.

Theres only so many times you can tell people that despite the fact they're happy to live by the understanding that "If your gonna get it, your gonna get it" I'd rather hold off getting it ideally at all...
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on October 13, 2021, 05:23:57 PM
Is it worse than flu if you're vaxxed up though? I thought it general it wasn't, although it obviously varies person to person.

A month on, my wife has headaches 24/7 and goes to bed at 7pm every evening.

Three weeks on, I can barely walk up or down stairs and I wake up out of breath in a puddle of cold sweat.

My mate is in hospital.

Feels great to be back to normal.

😂😂😂
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: stonkers on October 13, 2021, 06:21:10 PM
Vaccines don't work then, might as well just let 'er rip and get it over with.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on October 13, 2021, 06:43:11 PM
Lol yeah imagine
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on October 13, 2021, 10:48:26 PM
I went to the pub last night and I've been to a gig. I test two or three times a week and every time I go out socially. Wear masks in shops and at work when I'm not behind a screen.

So I don't know, am I cunt? Am I following the rules (I think so)? I've never had the option of furlough or working from home, been at work all through the pandemic working with the public. Is work the only time I should leave the house? Should I not see my parents? I didn't when you weren't supposed to or before they were jabbed.

Am I a hypocrite becuase it worries me a lot that we have 42,000 cases in a day and most European countries are in the low thousands but I'm going on holiday in a caravan park?

I don't fucking know.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on October 14, 2021, 08:10:15 AM
A month on, my wife has headaches 24/7 and goes to bed at 7pm every evening.

Three weeks on, I can barely walk up or down stairs and I wake up out of breath in a puddle of cold sweat.

My mate is in hospital.

Feels great to be back to normal.

😂😂😂

I'm sorry to hear that but it's not representative of most people's experience is it? Even pre-vax, a significant proportion of people had no symptoms at all.

Sympathy to those who are vulnerable, but it doesn't really change the basic fact this is as good as it gets. It's here now. You can live in a bunker for the rest of your life trying to avoid it or add it to the list of risks you accept every time you leave the house.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on October 14, 2021, 08:27:23 AM
Not sure what CV and CEV people are meant to do though. The government is trying to force as many people back to the office no matter how vulnerable to covid they are, and using public transport is risky at the moment.

I'd feel a bit happier about "living with covid" if working from home wasn't being made out to be such a negative thing by the government and the media and if masks were compulsory on public transport and in shops (with windows locked open on buses as well). At the very least, it should be "Live with covid, but still take simple steps to reduce the risk of it spreading and to protect the vulnerable". If the government sent a box of N95 masks to every house and flat in Britain each week, and if it updated the criteria for testing to the 21 symptoms on the ZOE website, that would also help keep vulnerable people safe.

People who are CV/CEV must be terrified at the moment, and it does feel like the government is happy to kill off as many of them as they can.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Alberon on October 14, 2021, 08:40:29 AM
Not trying to stress anyone out further but there were a few reports that experts were bracing for a bad flu season and the risk of death doubles if you get both that and Covid at the same time.

I don't think we have to be careful forever, but at least lets get through this winter and then we'll really know where we stand.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Uncle TechTip on October 14, 2021, 09:42:31 AM
Not sure what CV and CEV people are meant to do though. The government is trying to force as many people back to the office no matter how vulnerable to covid they are, and using public transport is risky at the moment.

I'd feel a bit happier about "living with covid" if working from home wasn't being made out to be such a negative thing by the government and the media and if masks were compulsory on public transport and in shops (with windows locked open on buses as well). At the very least, it should be "Live with covid, but still take simple steps to reduce the risk of it spreading and to protect the vulnerable". If the government sent a box of N95 masks to every house and flat in Britain each week, and if it updated the criteria for testing to the 21 symptoms on the ZOE website, that would also help keep vulnerable people safe.

People who are CV/CEV must be terrified at the moment, and it does feel like the government is happy to kill off as many of them as they can.

I think the cost of N95 masks to everyone would be astronomical, even those who don't need them?

The government has no involvement in Zoe to my knowledge, it's a university project.

An upside to the masks situation is that low paid supermarket workers aren't forced into a position of defending rules, with all the conflict that surrounds it.

I get that the government's stance is to "force" us back to the office but they aren't trying very hard at the moment. My employer halved their hq size and aren't pushing us to attend more than once a month. If gov wanted to force people back, they would introduce some home working tax. Maybe that's still to come in the budget.

CEV people who are double jabbed shouldn't be worried, they have the best protection we can offer. Remember this virus is now endemic and isn't going to disappear; govs aren't going to pour billions into new treatment when we've already paid for some; you will catch it sooner or later unless you want to isolate from society for ever.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on October 14, 2021, 10:44:55 AM
You're sort of mi
and if it updated the criteria for testing to the 21 symptoms on the ZOE website, that would also help keep vulnerable people safe.

Just to pick on one thing, you're mixing up fundamental things here. A list of covid symptoms is a completely different thing to useful diagnostic criteria.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Zetetic on October 14, 2021, 10:52:24 AM
And that's going to be a more difficult question still in the next few months.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: SpiderChrist on October 14, 2021, 10:54:55 AM
you will catch it sooner or later unless you want to isolate from society for ever.

Nice to see I have options. Think I need to stay out of this sub-forum (and society, clearly) from now on.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on October 14, 2021, 11:15:32 AM
I think the cost of N95 masks to everyone would be astronomical, even those who don't need them?

The government has no involvement in Zoe to my knowledge, it's a university project.

An upside to the masks situation is that low paid supermarket workers aren't forced into a position of defending rules, with all the conflict that surrounds it.

I get that the government's stance is to "force" us back to the office but they aren't trying very hard at the moment. My employer halved their hq size and aren't pushing us to attend more than once a month. If gov wanted to force people back, they would introduce some home working tax. Maybe that's still to come in the budget.

CEV people who are double jabbed shouldn't be worried, they have the best protection we can offer. Remember this virus is now endemic and isn't going to disappear; govs aren't going to pour billions into new treatment when we've already paid for some; you will catch it sooner or later unless you want to isolate from society for ever.

Sorry, I should have expressed that better - I meant the government should use the info on the ZOE website to update the testing criteria on the government website.

The cost of N95 masks would be offset somewhat by the savings to businessess if less employees got sick. Ideally we would have brought in a windfall tax on businesses like Amazon to help fund this, but I know the Tories would never do this.

I take your point re supermarket workers not being forced into a position of defending and/or enforcing the rules. It's a difficult one.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Drygate on October 14, 2021, 11:31:25 AM
CEV people who are double jabbed shouldn't be worried, they have the best protection we can offer.

Just because they've had the best protection we can offer, doesn't mean they shouldn't be worried. I assume you're referring to the vaccines, and while they are great at reducing the symptoms, the few people that are dying despite being vaccinated are the ones that are CEV.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: scarecrow on October 14, 2021, 02:06:56 PM
The few people? It's about 200 a day.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on October 14, 2021, 02:13:13 PM
The few people? It's about 200 a day.

200 is about a1/3 over the 150 who are dying with covid on the death certificate per day. And Drygate was specifically talking about those who are vaccinated, and from common accounts it's mostly the unvaccinated who are dying..

Things are bad, you don't need to exaggerate to make it worse.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on October 14, 2021, 04:03:41 PM
Not trying to stress anyone out further but there were a few reports that experts were bracing for a bad flu season and the risk of death doubles if you get both that and Covid at the same time.

I don't think we have to be careful forever, but at least lets get through this winter and then we'll really know where we stand.

The risk of death from flu (and probably from Covid as well) also increases if you can't afford to heat your home. Not sure whether the government haven't realised that or just aren't arsed enough about it to do anything about the rocketing energy bills.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on October 14, 2021, 04:36:54 PM
Counterpoint - a lot of people who are potentially vulnerable to a respiratory virus are already pushing up daisies so it might be much better.

Edit: though I suppose some may have been made more vulnerable to it by their infection? Hmm I retract my optimism.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jobotic on October 14, 2021, 04:48:37 PM
45,000 now. Why is it so bad? Particularly compared to Europe

Most seem to be teenagers and 30-50s
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: chveik on October 14, 2021, 05:18:23 PM
Nice to see I have options. Think I need to stay out of this sub-forum (and society, clearly) from now on.

yes best to avoid the propaganda about 'vulnerable' people
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on October 14, 2021, 05:40:53 PM
45,000 now. Why is it so bad? Particularly compared to Europe

Most seem to be teenagers and 30-50s

Aren't most other European countries still requiring masks in indoor public places and not trying to go full let it rip that this country is? That probably accounts for why cases are so much higher.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on October 14, 2021, 06:15:16 PM
They also started on vaccinating children much earlier. Here there seems to be an infection path from kids to parents to grandparents.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on October 14, 2021, 08:22:37 PM
Love cunts going hard on the 'voice of reason' shit while going full Herr Eugenics.

All the best to you and yours.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on October 14, 2021, 08:28:06 PM
45,000 now. Why is it so bad? Particularly compared to Europe

Most seem to be teenagers and 30-50s

Note also that compared to the fairly acute peak in July, this is a relatively sustained level, so although the daily numbers of new infections are lower than at the July peak, the total number of infected people on any given day is almost certainly greater.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on October 14, 2021, 08:43:41 PM
They also started on vaccinating children much earlier. Here there seems to be an infection path from kids to parents to grandparents.

Who could ever have imagined such a scenario? “ Lessons have been learned”
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on October 14, 2021, 10:28:17 PM
https://twitter.com/DMinghella/status/1448232506063470594

Quote from: Dominic Minghella
Twelve thousand, six hundred and seventy-five Covid victims have died since the abandonment of all caution on "freedom day". May their souls rest in peace, and may their families rise in fury.

12,675 since "freedom day" is equivalent to over 53,000 per year.

Meanwhile, back in August: https://inews.co.uk/news/boris-johnson-privately-accepts-up-to-50000-annual-covid-deaths-as-an-acceptable-level-1170069

Quote from: i
Boris Johnson ‘privately accepts’ up to 50,000 annual Covid deaths as an acceptable level

So, is the level of deaths unacceptable yet?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: katzenjammer on October 15, 2021, 07:32:10 AM
45,000 now. Why is it so bad? Particularly compared to Europe

Most seem to be teenagers and 30-50s

In Madrid 88% of the population over 12 has been vaccinated, masks are required in schools, public transport and maybe most indoor spaces. I’m not sure, everyone just wears them when they’re inside (and a lot do outside) so I don’t know if it’s mandated or not.  We currently have an incidence of 50/100K. Could all go tits up next week of course, who knows.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: katzenjammer on October 15, 2021, 11:45:22 AM
Something that just came to mind, which is possibly worrying, is that most of Europe vaccinated quite quickly and quite recently compared to the UK. If the UK is suffering larger infection rates due to a drop off in antibodies because more time has passed since vaccinations Europe could follow suit in a few months time.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Alberon on October 15, 2021, 11:58:56 AM
I don't think we're seeing a lot of double-vaccinated deaths so hopefully that isn't the case.

Whether we'll need a new jab every year like the flu one I have no idea. If we do and apathy sets in with the public then we might get a sudden spike of deaths out of nowhere one winter.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on October 15, 2021, 12:40:05 PM
https://twitter.com/DMinghella/status/1448232506063470594

12,675 since "freedom day" is equivalent to over 53,000 per year.

I don't know where he's getting his figures from. Looking at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths, the deaths with covid on the the death certificate between 19th July and 10th October is 5527.

Which isn't great. I know people are just venting anger but please spend 5 minutes checking things before repeating a lie?

(fake edit:  I think what's they've done is take the the average from the last 7 days, 145, and multiplied it by the number of days since July 19th (88) which give roughly that figure. Maybe the guy who created Doc Martin isn't the best person to get your statistics from?)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on October 15, 2021, 01:00:36 PM
I don't know where he's getting his figures from. Looking at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths, the deaths with covid on the the death certificate between 19th July and 10th October is 5527.

I make it 8986
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pranet on October 15, 2021, 01:11:31 PM
I made it 9808..... It would be helpful to know where he got his figures from.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on October 15, 2021, 01:53:53 PM
Now I look like a pratt. No change there I guess.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on October 15, 2021, 04:02:29 PM
I don't think we're seeing a lot of double-vaccinated deaths so hopefully that isn't the case.

Whether we'll need a new jab every year like the flu one I have no idea. If we do and apathy sets in with the public then we might get a sudden spike of deaths out of nowhere one winter.

Apathy is already the norm.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Alberon on October 15, 2021, 04:10:45 PM
True.

Depending on how long the vaccines work we might get a nasty shock in the winter after next.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Milo on October 16, 2021, 05:05:42 AM
I've had periods where I've wanted to get flu so I can have some free time off so I can see me not keeping up with my covid boosters in years to come.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on October 16, 2021, 06:43:27 AM
Something that just came to mind, which is possibly worrying, is that most of Europe vaccinated quite quickly and quite recently compared to the UK. If the UK is suffering larger infection rates due to a drop off in antibodies because more time has passed since vaccinations Europe could follow suit in a few months time.

Yes, this will happen and also due to seasonal factors and complacency.

The large infection rates in the UK aren't to do with a drop off in antibodies but a public health decision to let it run rampant in the general population on the basis that vaccines cap deaths and hospitalisations to a culturally acceptable level and to a point where NHS workers still turn up for their shift and no go 'You know what, fuck this. "
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on October 16, 2021, 08:55:29 AM
The UK-exclusive AY.4.2 variant, a Delta variant sub-lineage, has been linked to a 10% rise in transmissibility and is around 7% of those sequenced here currently. This is a truly great country.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on October 16, 2021, 12:16:28 PM
Ayyyy lmao 420
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: olliebean on October 16, 2021, 01:30:03 PM
The UK-exclusive AY.4.2 variant, a Delta variant sub-lineage, has been linked to a 10% rise in transmissibility and is around 7% of those sequenced here currently. This is a truly great country.

I knew we could do it! World beating!
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: peanutbutter on October 16, 2021, 06:36:19 PM
I've had periods where I've wanted to get flu so I can have some free time off so I can see me not keeping up with my covid boosters in years to come.
Or just get the flu shot and pretend you didn't so you can take a couple of extra days off sick regardless?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Milo on October 16, 2021, 06:39:01 PM
Nah, that would be dishonest.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on October 17, 2021, 10:15:53 AM
Well, all the numbers are going the wrong way. I have a small hope they might start falling again once it's finished working it's way through the schools but we're a bit fucked if it doesn't.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on October 17, 2021, 09:11:12 PM
Numbers are going up, there is a new variant, and the only message we're getting is- everything fine, back to the office, normality is resumed. The UK is stupid, and this is why our cases are so high (new cases currently second only to the US).

Anyone would think a banker was our health minister, in which case it's more evil than stupid.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on October 17, 2021, 09:12:41 PM
People are selfish and stupid, leaders are evil.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on October 18, 2021, 10:30:08 AM
The UK media seem to be largely ignoring this new variant as well, I imagine most people don't know.

It's disgusting how complicit most of the media are in our government's callous response to the pandemic. I remember there was one journalist who sent a really angry tweet about people who were calling for the UK to adopt a response like New Zealand.

With a few exceptions, the UK media is just client journalism.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on October 18, 2021, 11:55:29 AM
Meanwhile the Tories continue to watch the NHS implode and do nothing

Quote
Doctors are warning that accident and emergency departments are on the “edge of a precipice”, with patients forced to wait in ambulances for up to 11 hours outside hospitals.

Paramedics across Britain have reported queues of up to 20 ambulances waiting outside hospitals to transfer patients into emergency departments operating at full capacity. Every ambulance service in the country is now at the highest level of alert, the Association of Ambulance Chief Executives (AACE) said this weekend.

Martin Flaherty, the organisation’s managing director, said: “[The association] remains extremely concerned about the unprecedented levels of hospital handover delays which are occurring across the UK.”

...Mark Wibberley, a senior emergency medical technician with East of England ambulance service and Unison Norfolk County lead, said: “The waits can be as long as six hours to hand over patients. It’s not acceptable.” Darlington Memorial Hospital reportedly had queues of up to 15 ambulances this month with crews waiting hours to transfer patients.

Dr Ian Higginson, vice-president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, said: “The last thing you want when you’re sick, frightened or in distress is to be waiting in an ambulance outside an emergency department. There has been a failure in the NHS to deal with this chronic problem. I am very worried these delays will get worse without effective planning on how to deal with it. It feels like we are on the edge of a precipice in terms of the quality of care we can provide for our patients.”

NHS figures published last week revealed that 2.1 million people attended A&E last month, the highest figure ever recorded in September. There were 946,707 answered calls for an ambulance to 999 last month, compared with 713,975 in September 2020, an increase of more than 30%.

Figures released to the Observer from the AACE reveal the hours lost to ambulance services due to hospital handover delays of more than an hour had increased from 4,700 hours in April 2021 to more than 35,000 hours last month. Handover delays can worsen ambulance response times, which in England are now the longest since the data was first collected in April 2018...

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/oct/16/ae-crisis-leaves-patients-waiting-in-ambulances-outside-hospitals-for-11-hours
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on October 18, 2021, 12:23:54 PM
The UK media seem to be largely ignoring this new variant as well, I imagine most people don't know.

They did though go overboard with scare stories on variants earlier this year that weren't warranted.

This thread pulls the evidence together on why the UK numbers are so bad: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1449801652207239176.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: jamiefairlie on October 18, 2021, 04:12:58 PM
They did though go overboard with scare stories on variants earlier this year that weren't warranted.

This thread pulls the evidence together on why the UK numbers are so bad: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1449801652207239176.

So it’s because of reckless behaviour by the population encouraged by an evil government.  Who’d have thought eh.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Alberon on October 18, 2021, 10:47:50 PM
Totally unscientific, I know, but the number of people I personally know who has caught covid in the last eighteen months was only three definite and one possible. Just in the last week my cousin who is in her seventies and her husband have caught it (probably from her job as a primary school assistant) though thankfully not badly and now my sister-in-law and my nephew have come down with it as well.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Pinball on October 19, 2021, 12:08:48 PM
49,000 cases yesterday, so should go over 50,000 today. And if you include the 100s of thousands of missing results from the Wolverhampton lab failure, we've probably been over 50,000 already. I think it's kicking off again now. As what point will our Evil Banker Health Minister do something?
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on October 19, 2021, 01:59:26 PM
When patient numbers reach 17000 maybe? Although probably higher as the trajectories are different to last November
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Old Thrashbarg on October 19, 2021, 06:02:27 PM
On a more positive note, the growth rate in cases for the over-80s has been declining and absolute cases for them will likely start declining in the next couple of days. Which seems most likely to be as a result of the effects of the booster jabs. Speeding up the rollout of those will likely have a massive impact on how winter goes.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Milo on October 19, 2021, 07:40:54 PM
We're now on boosters for the load vs vaccinating the kids. We need both.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: poo on October 19, 2021, 09:47:40 PM
Christmas Fuckdown
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: FerriswheelBueller on October 19, 2021, 10:11:00 PM
Christmas Fuckdown

Alternative titles:

- Merry Fuckdown!
- Brandy lung butter
- Mistletoe and DEATH
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cold Meat Platter on October 19, 2021, 10:18:14 PM
You better watch out
You better not cry
You better not pout
I'm telling you why
Christmas Fuckdown's coming to town
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Cuellar on October 19, 2021, 10:50:09 PM
On a more positive note, the growth rate in cases for the over-80s has been declining and absolute cases for them will likely start declining in the next couple of days. Which seems most likely to be as a result of the effects of the booster jabs. Speeding up the rollout of those will likely have a massive impact on how winter goes.

This is because all the over 80s are now beastly dead
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on October 20, 2021, 06:31:59 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/19/fears-grow-in-england-over-rise-of-new-covid-delta-variant

Quote
the message needs to be, let’s stop worrying about mutations and worry about the fact we have uncontrolled transmission in the UK.”
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: katzenjammer on October 20, 2021, 06:37:26 AM
Alternative titles:

- Merry Fuckdown!
- Brandy lung butter
- Mistletoe and DEATH

(Not) Driving home for Covid
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Huxleys Babkins on October 20, 2021, 08:09:39 AM
Baby it’s cold outside (your body) (because you’re dead)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Chedney Honks on October 20, 2021, 08:19:38 AM
AY4.2 in a Manger
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Shoulders?-Stomach! on October 20, 2021, 08:25:41 AM
Nursing Home For Christmas (I can't wait to see those corpses)
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on October 20, 2021, 08:54:06 AM
Ministers making Plan C (another lockdown) more likely by ruling out Plan B ( the kind of sensible restrictions that countries like France and Germany, more sensible countries with lower cases, hospitalisations and deaths have)

Quote
In response to the NHS Confederation comments, UK Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng says the government does not "feel that it's the time for Plan B right now"
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: steveh on October 20, 2021, 08:59:32 AM
The UK-exclusive AY.4.2 variant, a Delta variant sub-lineage, has been linked to a 10% rise in transmissibility and is around 7% of those sequenced here currently. This is a truly great country.

The increase in transmissibility for AY.4.2 over Delta is now being suggested as around 2% with its growth due to the early pattern of distribution and a "technical artefact of sequencing". 2% may not be enough for it to become more dominant. Virologists still think there's enough evolutionary space for other transmissibility increases though and with UK cases running higher than elsewhere it makes it more likely they would emerge here.
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: Fambo Number Mive on October 20, 2021, 09:06:17 AM
The UK is a petri dish for new variants, another way we are screwing over the world.

The government pretend they are following the science but NHS leaders are telling them to move to Plan B, and they ignore them.

Meanwhile a major inquiry report in Brazil says Bolsonaro should be charged with  crimes against humanity, forging documents and incitement to crime over his handling of the COVID 19 pandemic in Brazil:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-58976197
Title: Re: The Final FUCKDOWN
Post by: MojoJojo on October 20, 2021, 11:15:25 AM
We're now on boosters