The Final FUCKDOWN

[steveh]

Has also been suggested that Russia's disinformation campaigns against the UK + US vaccines have fed into a greater lack of trust for their own.

[The Culture Bunker]

Has also been suggested that Russia's disinformation campaigns against the UK + US vaccines have fed into a greater lack of trust for their own.

A good friend of mine in Moscow has also mentioned this to me - she's had the vaccine, but knows plenty who buy into anti-vax conspiracy theories, always referring to the mysterious "they".

[MojoJojo]

s (although I presume Russia doesn't have a 28 day after infection cutoff to make the death rate look better like the UK does).

Russia has massively manipulated its death number. The excess mortality in 2020 was about 5 times higher than the official covid death count.

The UK government has 2 covid death counts. One includes only those within 28 days of a positive test. The other includes covid on the death certificate.

[jamiefairlie]

More awesome news on the BBC this morning.

" Double jabbed people are catching Covid and passing it on to those they live with, warn experts who have studied UK household cases.
Individuals who have had two vaccine doses can be just as infectious as those who have not been jabbed.
Even if they have no or few symptoms, the chance of them transmitting the virus to other unvaccinated housemates is about two in five, or 38%."

[Noodle Lizard]

More awesome news on the BBC this morning.

" Double jabbed people are catching Covid and passing it on to those they live with, warn experts who have studied UK household cases.
Individuals who have had two vaccine doses can be just as infectious as those who have not been jabbed.
Even if they have no or few symptoms, the chance of them transmitting the virus to other unvaccinated housemates is about two in five, or 38%."

Is that new information? I thought that was the main reason given for scrapping vaccine passports in the UK and elsewhere. If vaccinated people are less likely to experience symptoms whilst still being infectious, it follows that they'll be out and about more whilst infected as well, whereas an unvaccinated person will be more likely to stay home feeling like arse.

I do wish people (specifically Biden, Fauci etc.) would stop pretending this was the expected/intended outcome with the vaccines all along. It clearly wasn't, and I'm not sure anywhere near as many people would've gone along with it so hard if the ultimate endgame was to have rolling lockdowns/restrictions between expensive biannual booster shots in perpetuity. It's not a failure on the part of the vaccines as such; all medical history up to this point tells us it's almost impossible to effectively vaccinate against a virus of this nature, much less eradicate it completely. What's a bit frustrating is that we were led to believe otherwise.

[Big Mclargehuge]

What's a bit frustrating is that we were led to believe otherwise.

I mean; I got vaccinated knowing it wouldnt suddenly mean everything goes back to 2019 normality. I mainly got it because I didnt want to die while desperately and painfully gasping for air while hooked up to a ventilator in a sterile hospital bed (Back of an ambulance) while medical staff violently try to stop the ship falling over.

for me (and many I know) it was always about reducing absolute risk to a point where doing basic things became possible again without feeling like it was the end of days like doctors appointments or going to the shop. i've recently started going for walks in my local park without a mask on (still trying to social distance) and I considered that quite a novel shake up after 2 years of being housebound...

a LOT of people though didnt really seem to know or understand the difference between immunisation and vaccination, and bizarrely most people seemed to have the mentality 'Get Jabbed, go lick strangers' is just amazing really...even now Im STILL hearing people use the argument "If the Vaccines dont stop you getting it, whats the point?" like it should be 100% resistence or its a failure or some mad twattery.

[Noodle Lizard]

I mean; I got vaccinated knowing it wouldnt suddenly mean everything goes back to 2019 normality. I mainly got it because I didnt want to die while desperately and painfully gasping for air while hooked up to a ventilator in a sterile hospital bed (Back of an ambulance) while medical staff violently try to stop the ship falling over.

No, that's all fair enough. But there was a lot of "we'll beat the virus" talk which ... I dunno. It's not a virus you can beat, really. I think they should've been clearer about this when launching the vaccines in the interest of transparency. Sure, it likely means a lot fewer people would've gotten vaccinated, but I don't believe in essentially lying to people to get them to do what you want - and ultimately, it results in exactly this situation:

a LOT of people though didnt really seem to know or understand the difference between immunisation and vaccination, and bizarrely most people seemed to have the mentality 'Get Jabbed, go lick strangers' is just amazing really...

It's not that amazing, really. In the US, anyway, that's more or less what people were led to believe. "If you'd just get the vaccine, then this'd all be over". You can find news articles as recently as this summer that basically double down on that sentiment. It's more amazing that the media/general public is only just coming around to the idea that the vaccine won't stop you getting it. I've known more people to get it this year (since being vaccinated) than during the initial outbreaks, many of them symptomatic. It's perhaps better to see the vaccine as pre-emptive (and only somewhat effective) treatment rather than anything approaching a cure.

[MojoJojo]

Yes, that is US thing though* - in the UK at least there was a fairly early message of you can still spread it and you should still social distance etc.

Before freedom day at least.


* I think I mentioned I'd observed it a few months ago,  here it is https://www.cookdandbombd.co.uk/forums/index.php/topic,79544.msg4633663.html#msg4633663

[Huxleys Babkins]

Is that new information? I thought that was the main reason given for scrapping vaccine passports in the UK and elsewhere.

The main reason for scrapping vaccine passports is because they limited business' potential income. That they are effectively useless in stopping the spread of the virus is just a "bonus".

[Ferris]

Vaccines reduce the spread of cases, somewhere between 5-10x fewer cases among the vaccinated as a whole.

Definitely not worthless, and the only reason I've started going to bars and restaurants again is because I'm mad for a pint me! we have vaccine passport mandates in place so I feel like it is far safer than a month or two ago even though the caseloads are about the same.

Was at a complete fucking dive of a bar[nb]properly trailer park boys stuff. There was a roped off gambling terminal section[/nb] last night and it felt largely normal.

[jamiefairlie]

Vaccines reduce the spread of cases, somewhere between 5-10x fewer cases among the vaccinated as a whole.

Definitely not worthless, and the only reason I've started going to bars and restaurants again is because I'm mad for a pint me! we have vaccine passport mandates in place so I feel like it is far safer than a month or two ago even though the caseloads are about the same.

Was at a complete fucking dive of a bar[nb]properly trailer park boys stuff. There was a roped off gambling terminal section[/nb] last night and it felt largely normal.

Depends on what you call a "case" though. You can still spread it without ever registering as a "case", particularly dangerous in the scenario of a fully vaxed spreader amongst unvaccinated people.

[Ferris]

Depends on what you call a "case" though. You can still spread it without ever registering as a "case", particularly dangerous in the scenario of a fully vaxed spreader amongst unvaccinated people.

I'm going off the numbers here in NS, which reports positive tests by vaccine status. Consistently 8-10x fewer cases among the vaccinated vs unvaccinated and we haven't had significant community spread for a while so it's not circulating out there without people knowing.

Edit to add - I included the lower bound of 5x because that's the rate I see in the US where there's fuck all restrictions and vaccination rates are a lot lower which I imagine causes those "hidden" cases you point out. I think 5-10x is a good ballpark estimate - with no restrictions it'll be at the lower end, with stuff like masks/vaccine passports/tracing/social distancing etc it'll be closer to the 10x rate because there will be fewer high viral load exposures that "test" the vaccinated population's immunity.

[olliebean]

Vaccines reduce the spread of cases, somewhere between 5-10x fewer cases among the vaccinated as a whole.

5-10x fewer than what? It's not 5-10x fewer than the previous highest peak, back in January, when most people weren't vaccinated. Essentially by lifting all the restrictions we've wiped out any benefit the vaccine might have had in reducing the number of cases. Of course we're still left with the benefit of reducing the number of hospitalisations and deaths, which is far from worthless. But we could have reduced them considerably more by leaving basic precautions in place.

[jamiefairlie]

I'm going off the numbers here in NS, which reports positive tests by vaccine status. Consistently 8-10x fewer cases among the vaccinated vs unvaccinated and we haven't had significant community spread for a while so it's not circulating out there without people knowing.

Edit to add - I included the lower bound of 5x because that's the rate I see in the US where there's fuck all restrictions and vaccination rates are a lot lower which I imagine causes those "hidden" cases you point out. I think 5-10x is a good ballpark estimate - with no restrictions it'll be at the lower end, with stuff like masks/vaccine passports/tracing/social distancing etc it'll be closer to the 10x rate because there will be fewer high viral load exposures that "test" the vaccinated population's immunity.

Yes but if you're vaxed and have it and spread it but you don't suspect you have it then you'll never show up as a traceable case. I suspect that's a lot of people now.

[Ferris]

Essentially by lifting all the restrictions we've wiped out any benefit the vaccine might have had in reducing the number of cases. Of course we're still left with the benefit of reducing the number of hospitalisations and deaths, which is far from worthless. But we could have reduced them considerably more by leaving basic precautions in place.

Yeah I agree - that's kind of where I was going with that really (albeit less succinctly).

If you vaccinate heavily but remove lots of basic precautions at the same time, it (seems to) reduce the transmission efficacy of the vaccines from a hypothetical peak of 10x down to lower rate or even canceling out (but death rate continues to decline).

This all comes with a massive dollop of "I'm just some guy on the internet who has been procrastinating to the point of looking at covid data in 3 regions and drawing (possibly laughably incorrect) conclusions". I'm certain there are better qualified CaBbers out there who know more about this than me.

[BlodwynPig]

Yeah I agree - that's kind of where I was going with that really (albeit less succinctly).

If you vaccinate heavily but remove lots of basic precautions at the same time, it (seems to) reduce the transmission efficacy of the vaccines from a hypothetical peak of 10x down to lower rate or even canceling out (but death rate continues to decline).

This all comes with a massive dollop of "I'm just some guy on the internet who has been procrastinating to the point of looking at covid data in 3 regions and drawing (possibly laughably incorrect) conclusions". I'm certain there are better qualified CaBbers out there who know more about this than me.

[Chedney Honks]

Return of the King.

Hope you're well.

[Fambo Number Mive]

The Prime Minister said that while the Government was closely monitoring the situation, there was no need to act at this stage.

"We're watching the numbers every day. Yes it's true that cases are high. But they do not currently constitute any reason to go to Plan B," he said.

"I think it's agreed among absolutely everybody, apart from possibly the Labour Party, so we're sticking with the plan."

I did not think Johnson could sink any lower but here he is making party political capital out of the pandemic. What a disgusting person he is.

[mothman]

I've never wanted a PM to die before but I'm coming round to the idea.

[Milo]

I'd much rather he'd be permanently disgraced in some way, so that he could never again do his jovial japester act without the people around him saying, "you sicken me how dare you show your face". I think that would be worse than death for him.

[mothman]

Yeah, I recall similar arguments about Thatcher - that she live long enough to see her policies utterly discredited and the damage she did to this country laid bare. It'd be nice, sure, but then here we are on track for another 18-year stint of Tory rule perpetrated by the kind of right-wingers who utterly idolised her, plus in her later years she was so batshit crazy she'd have lapped up all the Brexiteer adulation and doubled down on it, despite all she actually did to progress the European project while PM.

So, it's a nice thought but real life rarely seems to yield those kinds of schadenfreudey just desserts...

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

They have found that printing money bails them out of nearly every situation so it isn't like before where the government would be left holding the bag and the public pin the blame on them.

The economy would otherwise have collapsed in 2020 and the Tories have been literally paying millions of people's wages for a year solid with not so much as a whimper of objection from any camp outside the most frothing libertarians.

The latest budget shows that they have no serious intentions to do anything other than keep shovelling the piles of money towards those at the top and keep the rest of the masses content with cheap credit for luxury consumer goods.

The energy crisis/inflation is likely to be a bigger issue for them, as that would actually involve them acknowledging we are heading into a winter of fuel poverty for millions. I'm unsure the last time anyone in the cabinet struggled to pay an electricity bill, or even, personally paid an electricity bill. It might be a problem they can't fix by printing money or using divide and rule politics.

[olliebean]

They have found that printing money bails them out of nearly every situation

And also gives them an excuse to pile on more austerity afterwards.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Can we be genuinely hoping the whole thing caves in on them, even at the expense of mass ruination of ordinary people? Probably not, they'll find another wheeze that reinflates it for another 10 years and allows them to pick off the final remnants of the state architecture.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Pictures of Mr Johnson not wearing a mask at the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow have prompted criticism of his behaviour on social media.

The PM's spokesman said Mr Johnson had abided by the guidance throughout the conference, adding "delegates are not required to wear a mask while seated".

As if coronavirus has some kind of agreement that it will only infect people who are standing. It looks like most of the other delegates wore a mask while seated.

I see Johnson was seated next to David Attenborough as well. The man's determined to pander to COVID deniers even if it means making a 95 year old man sick. 

[Fambo Number Mive]

Japan has reported no deaths from COVID today.

[Ferris]

Japan has reported no deaths from COVID today.

Nailed on for a FUCKDOWN in three months if the UK is anything to go by.

Hope you're well.

Speaking of - are you all done with covid or still feeling some aftershocks?

Either way get on the München doppelbocks ASAP you big wally.

[Blinder Data]

So is this fuckdown happening then or what?

[Zetetic]

Oh yes.

[Big Mclargehuge]

So is this fuckdown happening then or what?

My bet is that the government will claim everythings fine right up to the last week of November when "Concern" on covid levels will start creeping into the media. things will still be as current for the first week of december so that people fuck all there money off on black friday/cyber monday/christmas shopping stuff. and then they'll introduce a 2 week lockdown half way through the 2nd week of December (my guess will be the 8th/9th) leading up to christmas day when they'll do another "GREAT UNLOCKING TO SAVE CHRISTMAS GOD SAVE THE QUEEN" etc... with segmented lockdowns put in place as part of a shafting in the new year.