New variant from South Africa

[Fambo Number Mive]

Not back at square one as they can tweak the vaccines however obviously it will take time to revaccinate and we might get less people coming forward.

[Crenners]

I just want one more proper big lockdown.

[Milo]

This would take a couple of decades.

True, but if this is normal now they'll have to make a start.

[BlodwynPig]

Tackling climate change should be prioritised

[Milo]

Covid deaths will help with climate change to an extent, though would have to measure the impact of the carbon emissions relating to intensive treatment of hospitalised patients, plus vaccine production and delivery.

[Uncle TechTip]

Covid deaths will help with climate change to an extent, though would have to measure the impact of the carbon emissions relating to intensive treatment of hospitalised patients, plus vaccine production and delivery.

About 0.07% of the world's population dead from COVID so far.

[mothman]

Though here in the U.K. we're easily going to hit 0.25%, and fairly soon at that. Maybe Johnson can use that. "World leading in the fight against climate change!"

[DrGreggles]

[Ferris]

In fairness, the idea that South Africa might not be the safest place on earth hasn't sprung out of nowhere.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_South_Africa

[Milo]

About 0.07% of the world's population dead from COVID so far.

Yes it's not many but we're looking at a threshold. Doesn't take that much to keep us below the runaway point. Maybe the lifetime consumption of that 0.07% will save us. Some of them will have even died before reproducing which gives us a compound effect.

[steveh]

Worthwhile read on what's known and not known so far:

One reason for concern about Omicron is that sequenced samples indicate it has rapidly replaced other variants in South Africa. But that picture might be skewed. For one, sequencing might have been focused on possible cases of the new variant in recent days, which could make it appear more frequent than it is. PCR data provide broader coverage and a less biased view, but there too, samples with the S gene failure indicate a rapid rise of Omicron.

But the rising frequency could still be due in part to chance. In San Diego, a series of superspreading events at a university resulted in an explosion of one particular strain of SARS-CoV-2 earlier this year, Andersen says: "It was thousands of cases and they were all the same virus." But the virus wasn't notably more infectious. South Africa has seen relatively few cases recently, so a series of superspreading events could have led to the rapid increase of Omicron. "I suspect that a lot of that signal is explained by that and I desperately hope so," Andersen says. Based on a comparison of different Omicron genomes, Andersen estimates that the virus emerged sometime around late September or early October, which suggests it might be spreading more slowly than it appears to have.

...

It's hard to tell how infectious a virus is based on mutations alone, says Aris Katzourakis, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Oxford. "But if we were looking out for mutations that do affect transmissibility, it's got all of them," he says.

The sequence also suggests the virus could excel at evading human antibodies, says Jesse Bloom, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. The human immune system produces a host of different antibodies that can neutralize SARS-CoV-2, but many of the most important ones fall into three categories that each target a slightly different site on the spike protein of the virus, simply called 1, 2 and 3. A mutation called E484K has long been worrying because it changes the shape of the site that class 2 antibodies recognize, making them less potent. Omicron carries this mutation and similar changes in the sites for the other two classes of antibodies.

Bloom thinks people who recovered from COVID or were vaccinated are unlikely to completely lose their ability to neutralize the virus. "But I would expect, based on this particular combination of mutations, that the drop in neutralization is larger than for all the other major variants."

https://www.science.org/content/article/patience-crucial-why-we-won-t-know-weeks-how-dangerous-omicron

[BlodwynPig]

Yes it's not many but we're looking at a threshold. Doesn't take that much to keep us below the runaway point. Maybe the lifetime consumption of that 0.07% will save us. Some of them will have even died before reproducing which gives us a compound effect.

Nope, its not about percentages, its about whom and when

[Milo]

Feel free to elaborate.

[BlodwynPig]

If there is die off in disadvantaged communities, which is most likely, this barely impacts industrial superpowers. Further, whilst there will be an asymptotic carrying capacity of the Earth, a consensus effort to drive down all behaviours contributing to a potential climate collapse and 'white out' should be the principle aim at all scales.

Boris fucked COP26 so that is highly unlikely. Its not all about global warming either.

[Ferris]

Still, good news about that Beatles film.

[mothman]

Yes, none of us are going to live forever, but that film is so long that watching it makes us feel like we are.

[Jasha]

Queue half a mile long at the mobile walk-in jab bus in town and I'd guess 90% of them weren't wearing a mask or keeping 2 metres

[Blue Jam]

Omicron? Beta, more like:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59450988

[Crenners]

Seems this is gonna be fine.

[Ferris]

Was nice to have the feeling of blind panic back though wunnit? Even if just for a day or two.

[BlodwynPig]

Jumping the gun here both of you!!!

[chveik]

Was nice to have the feeling of blind panic back though wunnit? Even if just for a day or two.

seems to me if we keep preventing those countries to have a free access to vaccines it's just a matter of time before we get an incredibly dangerous variant

[Ferris]

seems to me if we keep preventing those countries to have a free access to vaccines it's just a matter of time before we get an incredibly dangerous variant

Well that and the humanitarian and ethical fuckdown of leaving a load of people in the developing world to their own devices because I've got mine Jack.

We need to be shipping every last dose to every corner of the world as fast as possible; and you're right - we should be doing that even you're some self-interested tory cunt because it is beneficial both ways.

It's part of what infuriates about millions of doses sitting unused in US pharmacies while some poor fuckers elsewhere go entirely without. The privilege to be "vaccine hesitant" and still expect 3x doses at your disposal the second you change your mind makes me feel a bit ill but there you go.

[Cuellar]

No, come on Omicron, give us a total fuckdown please I've made a lot of commitments in December that I only agreed to because I was confident we would be locked to fuck.

[bgmnts]

seems to me if we keep preventing those countries to have a free access to vaccines it's just a matter of time before we get an incredibly dangerous variant

The truly dangerous diseases, your ebolas and marburgs and MERS and such, seem to always be contained and dont spread much I think?

So I reckon the more dangerous and fatal it gets the more likely it'll be contained (obviously).

[Zetetic]

Of those that you've listed, bgmnts, how many are simultaneously asymptomatic and seriously contagious in an individual?

[Dr Rock]

I'm never going to get my spinal tap.

[Crenners]

I've got a good feeling about this.

[FiremanJim]

[ajsmith2]

Totally got this TMBG song stuck in my head:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3JNSlk0oak