Boris Johnson - Time Running out?

[Fambo Number Mive]

Why is there a binbag above the door to the left? Is it covering a camera?

[TheBrownBottle]

John Major was a laughing stock for at least 5 years before finally giving in to Our Tony. The thing about the Tory party choosing a replacement is it's almost never the obvious choice, it's closer to choosing their leader by lottery, and it would be a foolish Tory who pulled the lever. Besides, the Queen is about to die.

True, though Major's party did rack up more votes than any other PM in history in 1992.  It was the ERM disaster followed by what seemed like weekly scandals which did for him.  Usually, their MPs aren't really reflective of the wider party - they're more self-interested shithouses enamoured more in lining their own pockets, as opposed to the lunatic elderly reactionaries which make up most of the membership.  Due to the way that the party leadership elections work, this usually means that you just get a posh shit rather than a swivel-eyed lunatic running the show.  IDS in 2001 was the exception which proved the rule - and that was due to a number of factors (Portillo's hands being too much on the 2001 hammering which likely cost him second place to Ken Clarke).  The fact that 2019 saw them elect lots of new MPs from a completely different world to that occupied by your Camerons and Johnsons might change that mind - Brexity, fire-breathing reactionary types might not want a Sunak.

Labour has a 9 point lead now according to Opinium.  That'll grow over the next week or so, as traction is gained and the tabloids go for the throat.  Johnson is currently making himself unpopular with the right (the left goes without saying).

The Tories will push the lying racist sack of shite out fairly quickly if he becomes electoral kryptonite - that's what they always do. Personally, I think he's fucked, as the public has turned and he won't get them back.  But that also doesn't mean I think they'll lose the next GE - the swing required in 18 months time is just too much

[TrenterPercenter]

I hope Pippa Crear has something else up her sleeve and isn't relying on the picture of the zoom xmas party; that in a way helps Boris.  I'm sure it is not beyond Tory HQ to come up with "evidence" that strategically handles the party story - needs to be something looking more like people having fun and some indulgence for things to continue next week.

[mothman]

Why is there a binbag above the door to the left? Is it covering a camera?

It's an extreme angle, but it's actually a wall on the left with the bookcases, then a window (with curtains) right in the corner with the back wall with the Thatcher portrait. Those are curtains you can see.

[monkfromhavana]

I think some people have wanted Boris gone for a while, but Starmer has been so inept as a leader they're having to spell it out to the electorate on a daily basis in the press to give a chance.

[olliebean]

Labour has a 9 point lead now according to Opinium.  That'll grow over the next week or so, as traction is gained and the tabloids go for the throat.  Johnson is currently making himself unpopular with the right (the left goes without saying).

The Tories will push the lying racist sack of shite out fairly quickly if he becomes electoral kryptonite - that's what they always do. Personally, I think he's fucked, as the public has turned and he won't get them back.  But that also doesn't mean I think they'll lose the next GE - the swing required in 18 months time is just too much

Also, as soon as they replace him with someone less toxic with the public, those poll results will bounce right back. Because Starmer is doing fuck-all to keep them.

[chveik]

why do the media want him gone?

[Butchers Blind]

why do the media want him gone?

Had their fun, time to move onto someone new.

[Das Reboot]

Considering just how fucking long it took for the Tories to finally decapitate May after she frittered away Cameron's surprise majority in the 2017 election, I can't see these power-crazed twats changing anything soon.

[TheBrownBottle]

Two years isn't long at all for a sitting PM, never mind a party leader.  And it was fear of what would replace her on the opposite bench which kept the Tories from axing her after she managed to blow one of the biggest leads in polling history, mainly thanks to her utter uselessness and interesting approach of making her first key policy statement one which attacked a core part of her own electorate.  Never a sound strategy, that.

[Alberon]

One difference between May and Johnson is that the former did have a faction of the MPs supporting her.

Johnson doesn't have that. His base is the electorate. He was invulnerable while he kept them on board, now they've turned there's no-one in the House of Commons supporting him.

The closest he had were the new MPs in the so-called 'Red Wall' constituencies, though they can see themselves losing their seats if this continues.

[mothman]

The last two Tory PMs had at least some claim to legitimacy by having held elections after ascending, unnecessary though it is in legal terms. I wonder if the next one will? Given my obviously low opinion of them all, I'm guessing not however much of a poll bounce a new leader always seems to get. They'll cling on and hope the polls turn uncontrovertibly in their favour. Or they finally get through their heavily-gerrymandered boundary changes.

But if - and I know for many of you this is such a big if, it's not even a thing at all - Starmer is playing a long game (with potentially still three years until the next general election) then he might want to start rolling out those policies sooner rather than later...

[peanutbutter]

Wont spooking people about a Labour/SNP coalition be enough for basically any tory leader to win the next election?

[mothman]

But by that logic then the Tories will always win. And yes the electorate really are dumb enough to fall for it every time. Especially give the question, would the SNP really ally with Labour? Really? A Tory government in Westminster is often considered to be their strongest asset. I suppose there might be further devolution options to be offered, and another referendum as a certainty.

[imitationleather]

Would really rather not have PM Kieth.

[greencalx]

The greatest shows of enmity in British politics are between the SNP and Labour north of the border. So although that doesn't completely eliminate the possibility of some sort of Westminster alliance to keep the Tories at bay, it would be a very uneasy one.

[mothman]

Would really rather not have PM Kieth.

What would you like then? OK, I think I've been paying enough attention to what happens in the CaB political threads to know that nobody here wants him as PM, so much so that none of you will vote Labour as long as he's in charge. So do we have to put up with Tory governments until there's a Labour led by someone acceptable to you?

Because call me old-fashioned and politically naive

Spoiler alert

Ha-ha, just my little joke, I'm sure I'll be called a lot worse

[close]

but I'd take a Labour government over a Conservative one any day.

[Dayraven]

would the SNP really ally with Labour? Really? A Tory government in Westminster is often considered to be their strongest asset.

If they represented the balance of power, though, they might have to offer some sort of support to Labour — being seen to put a Tory government in Westminster wouldn't be a good look for them.

[Old Nehamkin]

Because call me old-fashioned and politically naive

Spoiler alert

Ha-ha, just my little joke, I'm sure I'll be called a lot worse

[close]

but I'd take a Labour government over a Conservative one any day.

What are some things that you think would materially change if this happened?

[TrenterPercenter]

What are some things that you think would materially change if this happened?

The pace of the new NHS privatisation moves would be at very least slowed if not stopped, plus there would be fair pay reviews of public sector pay which improves standards.
Benefits would be likely uprated in some fashion.
More funding would be directed towards vulnerable groups.

That is just 3 there would be many more.  The idea that Labour, a party that has a membership that is literally composed of trade unions and public sector workers wouldn't be better than a party that has elitist and private interests running through it is just going over the same mistakes of the past.  Labour is always better whatever iteration, no they are not anyway near leftwing enough and yes there are serious problems in how they deviated from Labour roots/foreign policy and various other incredibly shit things but they are always better than the Tories.

This is same trick that has been played for the last 15 years and has been typified by arguments for UKIP and Brexit.  Why do people keep thinking that dealing with all this shit is easier with Labour out of power than in?

[Old Nehamkin]

Labour is always better whatever iteration, no they are not anyway near leftwing enough and yes there are serious problems in how they deviated from Labour roots/foreign policy and various other incredibly shit things but they are always better than the Tories.

Yeah, I believed all of this up to a few years ago. Don't any more, I'm afraid!

[Zetetic]

The pace of the new NHS privatisation moves would be at very least slowed if not stopped

I really don't think this is true - as outlined in recent threads, privatisation across the UK is overwhelmingly being driven by the collapse of the NHSs driving people to privately-funded elective care (rather than privatising publicly-funded services) outside of a few specialist sectors (where Labour, in government in Wales and England, and opposition, has been at least as bad the Conservatives at handing vulnerable people over to profiteers).

Pay deal stuff would be nice, selfishly of course in both our cases, but it won't really help the services much at this point. (The only things that really will and that will take less than a decade are politically intolerable and ethically dubious, centered as they are around immigration.)

[Zetetic]

Any serious consideration of what the next English Government will be like also has to consider the behaviour and attitudes of the English Civil Service over the last two years - it's not just the Commons that is the problem at this point. This too would take decades to solve - it's unlikely that this is a real possibility in England now.

[TrenterPercenter]

Yeah, I believed all of this up to a few years ago. Don't any more, I'm afraid!

Then you are not being rational.  You asked for material benefits; I've given you some very clear and obvious ones and extended the explanation of why these are likely due to the :Labour parties actual membership make-up who decide and influence policy at conference.

You now say you just don't believe it; this is just a tautology you've created now and your question wasn't sincere in the fist place.

More to the point this is exactly the same mindset that people have engaged with again and again over 15 years; it's not new or insightful or anything it's apathetic, defeatist and selfish.  I have sympathy why people feel this way; I'm only someone that is willing to support labour for pragmatic reasons and the fact that yes they are shit but the other option is much worse.

[TrenterPercenter]

I really don't think this is true - as outlined in recent threads, privatisation across the UK is overwhelmingly being driven by the collapse of the NHSs driving people to privately-funded elective care (rather than privatising publicly-funded services) outside of a few specialist sectors (where Labour, in government in Wales and England, and opposition, has been at least as bad the Conservatives at handing vulnerable people over to profiteers).

I'm not really getting into an argument here with you over this but I completely disagree with what you said here; you've just outlined "the problem" not what changes might come about to change that; which just implies there isn't any solution - of course Labour could try and stop the collapse of the NHS.  I am also aware you won't really accept that and it will get pretty exhausting pretty quickly so I'm out Z. 

If you seriously think the NHS is in better hands with the Tories you are welcome to that viewpoint.  In fact go and vote for them; I'm not bothering to convince people of this anymore.  Can't believe we are still swimming in circles here; I've largely removed politics from my life now because of these continued views and I'm happier for it.  Sorry but perhaps that is basically it; it's too exhausting to have try and engage with it all.

[Old Nehamkin]

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1469961800460509189?s=21

Asked what a Labour governemnt would do differently, Keir Starmer tells #marr it would have "a culture of complying with standards in public office"

Sorry I take it back.

[Zetetic]

If you seriously think the NHS is in better hands with the Tories you are welcome to that viewpoint.

I seriously think that either sustained or serious change is no longer possible at the level of England. That's not meant to be a claim that's unethical to vote in Westminster elections or the like, but that in general it's much better to direct one's time and energy building power locally and in opposition to the hyper-centralisation of England.

[TrenterPercenter]

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1469961800460509189?s=21


Sorry I take it back.

Yes I understand Kieth is an arsehole; but complying with standards in public office is a good thing and would mean the government would not be doing things like giving dodgy contracts to their mates.

It is incredibly easy to be cynical and you'll find no end of fucking shite things Labour people have said for the basis of highlighting how shit they are.  This isn't a winnable contest for anyone trying to just point out that of course it's shite but it could just be marginally better than it is now.  I've sick and tired of putting myself out there in vain hope of fostering some kind of hope or change for the better so that people like you can just vent your anger on.

Let all just dance into oblivion together.  It's done. Over.  My pragmatic brain now says we should at least stop fucking moaning about it then; just fuck everything off who fucking cares about anyone or anything else; let's revel in this completely apathetic cynical view and at least enjoy that; no more worrying about things getting better just shite, unavoidable incontestable shite that you don't ever have to worry about because it's already done.  Let's just do that instead.

[TrenterPercenter]

I seriously think that either sustained or serious change is no longer possible at the level of England. That's not meant to be a claim that's unethical to vote in Westminster elections or the like, but that in general it's much better to direct one's time and energy building power locally and in opposition to the hyper-centralisation of England.

Sure. I work locally it's what I do, bottom up change is good for lots of reasons.  I don't think it is served well by the other aspects of your viewpoint but I'm not interested in arguing about it (because that is obvious and once again it feels like I'm trying to uphold some positiveh for the sake of other people; which I already do quite enough of in my work life).

[JarrowMonkey]

The pace of the new NHS privatisation moves would be at very least slowed if not stopped, plus there would be fair pay reviews of public sector pay which improves standards.
Benefits would be likely uprated in some fashion.
More funding would be directed towards vulnerable groups.

That is just 3 there would be many more.  The idea that Labour, a party that has a membership that is literally composed of trade unions and public sector workers wouldn't be better than a party that has elitist and private interests running through it is just going over the same mistakes of the past.  Labour is always better whatever iteration, no they are not anyway near leftwing enough and yes there are serious problems in how they deviated from Labour roots/foreign policy and various other incredibly shit things but they are always better than the Tories.

This is same trick that has been played for the last 15 years and has been typified by arguments for UKIP and Brexit.  Why do people keep thinking that dealing with all this shit is easier with Labour out of power than in?

I can only speak from personal experience, but If id have got the old bengal lancer now, rather than in 2009, id be dead, or at least the treatment after my operation may not have been to the standards it was then

The amount of polices and changes put in place under the first five years or so of the last Labour government changed a lot of peoples lives for the good, Surestart was amazing and improved communities and family lives which had been battered by nearly two decades of Tory policies