Brexit Discussion Thread number 3

[solidified gruel merchant]

Yes. I am an adult male. I too have theory based beliefs.

Do you think it is a good article, Paul Calf?

[mothman]

Perhaps it'd help to differentiate between the article and the academic study it's reporting on?

[Fambo Number Mive]

The People's Vote campaign have set up a 'Brexit pop up shop' in Peckham, South London:

https://twitter.com/josephmdurso/status/1065918887450038272

Not sure how Costcutter will feel about them spoofing their logo: https://twitter.com/czzpr/status/1065931417119571968

[Fabian Thomsett]

The People's Vote campaign have set up a 'Brexit pop up shop' in Peckham, South London:

https://twitter.com/josephmdurso/status/1065918887450038272

Not sure how Costcutter will feel about them spoofing their logo: https://twitter.com/czzpr/status/1065931417119571968

This makes me want to vote Leave.

[Neville Chamberlain]

The People's Vote campaign have set up a 'Brexit pop up shop' in Peckham, South London:

https://twitter.com/josephmdurso/status/1065918887450038272

Not sure how Costcutter will feel about them spoofing their logo: https://twitter.com/czzpr/status/1065931417119571968

HARD BREXIT NOW.

[Replies From View]

HARD BREXIT NOW.

HAHA RAPE

[manticore]

Since it's being ejected from the other thread:

If we do believe that the EU is an unopposable universally neoliberal behemoth for a member state, what are we hoping for as a austerity-weakened, services-heavy third country? How can our position possibly improve?

From the knowledge I've gleaned over the years I do believe the EU is an unopposable neoliberal monolith (open for someone to try to persuade me otherwise), BUT I'm also quite persuaded by Yanis Varoufakis when he says it's like Hotel California - 'you can check out but you can never leave' - and being outside its decision-making system leaves the UK unable to oppose its worst excesses and the disastrous effects of its disarray in many ways.

[BlodwynPig]

Just got an email from home saying that in the case of a no-deal, my fellowship funding wil be covered by UKRI and continuation as is dependent on a transitionary deal.

Fuck it, im going to become a woodsman in the Ozarks, like i always wanted

[Alberon]

The papers are judging that May backed down and conceded a small amount over Spain and Gibraltar. It probably won't make a huge amount of difference, but it isn't going to make Tory MPs any happier.

[gatchamandave]

HAHA RAPE

There's been a Brexit up there !!!

[katzenjammer]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-void-high-court-ruling-arron-banks-investigation-when-december-christmas-a8649001.html

The High Court will rule as early as Christmas whether Brexit should be declared "void", in a legal case given a turbo-boost by the criminal investigation into Leave funder Arron Banks.

Is there any chance this will make any difference to anything?

[Replies From View]

Regarding a stuck record in the wrong thread banging on about Brexit being brilliant if we only vote for Labour in a fictional general election...

Let's say we do get Labour into power soon and they lead us in a successful exit from the EU, is there anything Labour could do to prevent the next Tory government just taking us into an irreversible US-UK trade deal as per their current long term goals?


It's the obvious elephant in the room, as I see it.

[Zetetic]

They can write whatever they like into law - and the Tories can unwrite it if they feel like it.

There might be arrangements where it would be unseemly for them to do so. (For example, perhaps, you could require that future trade deals are appraised by a QUANGO with a remit that goes someway towards protecting public control equitable funding, and some sort of public ownership of this, that and the other).

^{You could try joining a regional trade block that, for all its ordoliberal and marketisation obsessions, would provide some minimal collective protection against the worst excesses of 'free trade'. (Again this doesn't obliterate the sovereignty of Parliament, but it provides another check, one way or the other, on a Government's behaviour. But this gets into those questions we never get answers to.)}

[Replies From View]

The Tories are known for restructuring public services by stealth, starving them of needed funds and so on, so that public opinion changes and it's no longer "unseemly" to open them up to privatisation once again.

And I think once we're tied into US-UK agreements they're going to be much harder to 'unwrite' in any way that would be meaningful.  A couple of decades from now, it'll just be "the way things are"; there will be fewer and fewer people who remember public services in the way the boomer generation experienced them, and over time it seems inevitable that our socio-political landscape will come to resemble that of the US.

Am I wrong?

[mothman]

Sadly, no.

[New Jack]

The won't of the people, eh, readers?

[Johnny Yesno]

The won't of the people, eh, readers?

Wont, shurley?

[græskar]

An interesting report on how Brexit and the negotiations have been viewed from the perspective of member states and EU27: http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Negotiating-Brexit-Where-Now.pdf

[Huxleys Babkins]

The Tories are known for restructuring public services by stealth, starving them of needed funds and so on, so that public opinion changes and it's no longer "unseemly" to open them up to privatisation once again.

And I think once we're tied into US-UK agreements they're going to be much harder to 'unwrite' in any way that would be meaningful.  A couple of decades from now, it'll just be "the way things are"; there will be fewer and fewer people who remember public services in the way the boomer generation experienced them, and over time it seems inevitable that our socio-political landscape will come to resemble that of the US.

Am I wrong?

No, I don't think you are. It's why I'm somewhat apprehensive of Labour's plans to take back the trains and utilities. I can see the process becoming incredibly litigious, drawn out and expensive. Too many companies have too much at stake to just let the cash cow be put out to pasture. They only have to stall the hypothetical Labour government long enough at a cost of billions of taxpayers money before the Tories come back in and cancel the nationalisation programme.

A trade deal with the US that gives their medical and pharmaceutical industries access to the NHS would be even worse as their right to plunder would be written in law.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Theresa May's Brexit deal could leave the average person more than £1,000 worse off per year in the first decade outside of the EU, according to the first independent analysis of Britain exit terms.

As European leaders endorsed the prime minister's plan, new research revealed the agreement could hit the UK's economy by £100bn a year by 2030, equating to an average of £1,090 per person.

The report by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR), commissioned by the People's Vote campaign, also warned that the government's preferred outcome could see a 46 per cent hit to trade with the EU and a 21 per cent fall in foreign direct investment...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-brexit-deal-latest-100-billion-poorer-eu-withdrawal-agreement-a8651146.html

[Fambo Number Mive]

BBC's Nick eardley tweets:

Every Labour MP invited to a briefing by PM's team on Brexit deal in the Commons tonight. Searching here, there and everywhere for support to get it through.

[manticore]

Okay, transferring this from May thread.

This second referendum/"Peoples Vote" that keeps getting mentioned - apologies, I've not really been following it all too closely of late - should it come to pass and happen, will it actually reverse/cancel Brexit if the majority now voted to remain (which I think they would - out of everyone I know who voted leave, only one of them would vote the same way), or is it just an empty current opinion poll that will have no bearing on anything other than filling slow news days?

Does anyone think there wouldn't be a huge right-wing backlash in this country if there was a second referendum and there was a narrow vote to remain?

-------------------

Also please could someone advise me as to the best places to read about this and follow what's happening? What are the sources of information and commentary you're using? I genuinely find myself very uncertain about a lot of the details of this subject.

[Panbaams]

Also please could someone advise me as to the best places to read about this and follow what's happening? What are the sources of information and commentary you're using? I genuinely find myself very uncertain about a lot of the details of this subject.

Do you do podcasts? Remainiacs is worth a listen (but as you can tell from the name, it obviously tackles the week's news from a particular position).

Edit (after reading Darles Chickens' post below): Ian Dunt from politics.co.uk is on Remainiacs.

[Darles Chickens]

Does anyone think there wouldn't be a huge right-wing backlash in this country if there was a second referendum and there was a narrow vote to remain?

Of course there would. The promised Faragian riots in the streets would be unleashed, etc.

But it'd also highlight the inconclusiveness of the votes: neither of them offering an obvious mandate for anything.  At that point, it would almost certainly mean taking a shitty compromise like May's, where nobody is happy.  But how can there possibly be another option?  No party will be suicidal enough to cancel the whole shitshow and stay with the best deal (status quo), unless a People's Vote (TM) returns a clear mandate, which seems unlikely.

Also please could someone advise me as to the best places to read about this and follow what's happening? What are the sources of information and commentary you're using? I genuinely find myself very uncertain about a lot of the details of this subject.

Ian Dunt's Brexit articles on politics.co.uk are often worth a read. They're largely very anti-Brexit in tone, but half the time that's just because it's hard to arrive at any other conclusion given all the facts.

[monkfromhavana]

What would happen to the right-wing if the issue was passed to the CoD and she just said "remain"? What would happen in their heads?

[Cuellar]

Okay, transferring this from May thread.

Does anyone think there wouldn't be a huge right-wing backlash in this country if there was a second referendum and there was a narrow vote to remain?

There's a right wing backlash NOW for heaven's sake, when they've got exactly what the want. The petulant children amongst them will never be happy, that's not a good reason for not doing something.

[katzenjammer]

If there is some kind of brexit, deal, no deal, red white and blue etc. what percentage of the population will be happy with it? My guess would be 20%, absolute max, and most likely much less.  So we might as well just stay in for that reason if nothing else.

[Uncle TechTip]

What would happen to the right-wing if the issue was passed to the CoD and she just said "remain"? What would happen in their heads?

That would be so unusual as to trigger a constitutional crisis. Monarchy don't ever overrule parliament, well not in the last few hundred years. Parliament voted, unfortunately. Still, if it did come to pass, in theory she has the power but it might lead to the removal of the Royal Family and a true republic, so maybe not a bad thing?

[Blue Jam]

The Dotard weighs in:

https://youtu.be/R8Wrz9hR7lk

Meh, he just sounds confused (nothing unusual there), this is probably nothing to worry about.

[BlodwynPig]

The enemy of my enemy of my enemy of my enemy of my enemy is my enemy of my enemy of my enemy