Cook'd and Bomb'd Mafia: Blodwyn's Island Day 1

[Kryton]

Incidentally my 2 star guest house will be hosting a retired cop SEX party tonight.

[Buelligan]

This answer is très important, yes.  Also, if we 'old informal votes on protection and investigation, they must be advisory.  Otherwise, les cons will know our directions.  So, advisory only, final choice by those who 'ave the right to choose.

BTW, the raison I suggest this is to allow the docteur and this police to coordinate without revealing themselves too much, you see?

[drummersaredeaf]

Incidentally my 2 star guest house will be hosting a retired cop SEX party tonight.

The Brothers Grimsby.

[Ferris]

I think the more accusations and the more heat apllied to people, the more information gathered. Get one randomly lynched today means no information wil have been gathered about voting patters, starting day 2 in the same place. Accusations abd speculation are the only way forward. We want people to speak more and not be passive.

Oh yeah I agree we need to start investigating and prodding (I was getting bored of playing quoits with Cerys anyway), I just don't think we should necessarily permanently remove a player unless we get something fairly solid.

[Buelligan]

BTW, the raison I suggest this is to allow the docteur and this police to coordinate without revealing themselves too much, you see?

Think about it.  Poke 'oles, find the solutions.  I go now.

[Ferris]

Incidentally my 2 star guest house will be hosting a retired cop SEX party tonight.

YES mate. Will be there as usual.

BTW, the raison I suggest this is to allow the docteur and this police to coordinate without revealing themselves too much, you see?

Yeah absolutely. We can provide cover for them, and leave them with the final decision.

[madhair60]

POKE 'OLES??? A' DARE SAY A' SHALL!!! HAAWWWWWWW!!

[Prison Biscuits]

Incidentally my 2 star guest house will be hosting a retired cop SEX party tonight.

As the ex-sex partner of a retired SEX cop, I will also be en attendance. I will bring poppers et snouts.

[Kryton]

BTW, the raison I suggest this is to allow the docteur and this police to coordinate without revealing themselves too much, you see?

Exactly. Deep undercover. Nobody will suspect the middle aged landlady. Distract you all with sex parties, whilst prowling around the island solving crime.

[Ferris]

Exactly. Deep undercover. Nobody will suspect the middle aged landlady. Distract you all with sex parties, whilst prowling around the island solving crime.

Pitch it to Channel 5

[drummersaredeaf]

I like that approach - I think the first night lynch is self foot-shooting from town perspective, and it would be difficult for les baddies to influence 2 votes (for both doc and copper). Boringly, I am neither special player (lightning don't strike twice) but that's alright, get to live that vanilla townie life.

I also think it is important we don't treat those votes as accusations of anything sinister. We have to stick together, and understand that other people's suspicion is normal because we're starting from scratch. For now, I think the quietest 2 people are madhair and cuellar, so maybe they'd be a good place to start an overnight investigation. For suggesting them, I might also be a good shout but I'm a waste of an investigation so I'd ask the copper not to bother with me.

It's a tough one, because the first day is all unknowns - it's an information game, and ultimately there's not much to go on early in the game.

Going back to the poker discussion, I see the randomised lynching like blind increases - they force participation. So randomising late in the game becomes much more damaging when 'the blind' makes up more of 'your stack' so to speak. I'm not sure about whether randomising or lynching day 1 is the 'correct' strategy though. I suppose it depends on what is said, and ultimately you also need to see Day 1 voting intentions later in the game for information.

[Kryton]

Pitch it to Channel 5

They can stick it up their arses after that horrible documentary a number of years ago where the film crew went missing cost me a fucking star.

[Delete Delete Delete]

I think tactically on day one we should tactically focus on the quiet players, Yes there are risks, its a risky game, but in the last couple of games the quiet ones were really frustrating. So even if we lynch a quiet one who ends up being townie. In the long run at least we have then ruled them out from the investigation. I urge people not to take a passive role in this game.

[Delete Delete Delete]

ultimately you also need to see Day 1 voting intentions later in the game for information.

I fully agree with this.

[Ferris]

It's a tough one, because the first day is all unknowns - it's an information game, and ultimately there's not much to go on early in the game.

Going back to the poker discussion, I see the randomised lynching like blind increases - they force participation. So randomising late in the game becomes much more damaging when 'the blind' makes up more of 'your stack' so to speak. I'm not sure about whether randomising or lynching day 1 is the 'correct' strategy though. I suppose it depends on what is said, and ultimately you also need to see Day 1 voting intentions later in the game for information.

Agree with the logic of that, but you're bluffing and forcing participation against the odds.

I've only played one game and wasn't conventional so defer to everyone else's experience.

[DrGreggles]

[French]So, we know that the Mafs will lie and claim to be Townies, but who is yet to declare at all?

My previous failures suggest to me that they tend to keep their heads down early doors.[/French]

[Paul Calf]

As far as I see it, on the first day there are two options:

1. Strike out randomly and hope we hit a nasty;
2. Wait for more info.

The odds are very much in favour of as foot-shoot.

On the other hand, they're obviously going to make a kill overnight, which will tip the odds against us so protection is important this early on.

We can't really publicise the doc's decision to protect, just hope they make the right decision.

[Ferris]

I think tactically on day one we should tactically focus on the quiet players, Yes there are risks, its a risky game, but in the last couple of games the quiet ones were really frustrating. So even if we lynch a quiet one who ends up being townie. In the long run at least we have then ruled them out from the investigation. I urge people not to take a passive role in this game.

Ok how about this - I will vote to lynch the quietest person in the thread as of 2hrs prior to end of the round.

That should force participation, but I'm not just throwing random accusations around.

[Paul Calf]

[French]So, we know that the Mafs will lie and claim to be Townies, but who is yet to declare at all?

My previous failures suggest to me that they tend to keep their heads down early doors.[/French]

:) does anyone actually claim to be Maf? Is there any play in doing so?

[madhair60]

OUI!! A' CONFESS!! I AM FREQUENTLY FOUND, 'OW YOU SAY, BURIED DEEP IN MUFF!!

(Blinks twice)

SACRÉ BLEU! A' 'AVE MISUNDERSTOOD! QUE C'EST EMBARRASSMENT!!

[Kryton]

Right are we lynching someone or not?

[DrGreggles]

:) does anyone actually claim to be Maf? Is there any play in doing so?

It got someone killed once, so I doubt it.

But keeping quiet raises suspicions, so it will be interesting to see whose activity increases now this has been brought up.

[Kryton]

Has anyone not spoken in the thread yet? If so, get them.

[drummersaredeaf]

As far as I see it, on the first day there are two options:

1. Strike out randomly and hope we hit a nasty;
2. Wait for more info.

The odds are very much in favour of as foot-shoot.

On the other hand, they're obviously going to make a kill overnight, which will tip the odds against us so protection is important this early on.

We can't really publicise the doc's decision to protect, just hope they make the right decision.

Yes, but in this case both arguments are essentially 'random'.

By allowing the neutral GM to do the random selection (number generator or something), it gives a 1/4 chance of getting a maf, whereas the manoeuvring of the mafs  on day one means that any organised lynching surely moves the percentages to the baddies. Though equally, any good investigation moves it to the townies I suppose.

I'm not really sure what is best as 'optimum strategy', more curious as a (poor) poker player and (poor) economics grad as to what makes for good decision making.

[Paul Calf]

It got someone killed once, so I doubt it.

But keeping quiet raises suspicions, so it will be interesting to see whose activity increases now this has been brought up.

I'm not sure that's going to be much use as a strategy since Ferris said that he'll vote for the quietest player regardless.

[Ferris]

I'm not sure that's going to be much use as a strategy since Ferris said that he'll vote for the quietest player regardless.

Yup. In my mind, that's the optimal strategy.

We can't really improve our odds on a lynch, so the most value we get out of day one is being able to go back through after the fact and see who engaged in the investigation, who stonewalled, who tried to obfuscate or just wasn't helpful.

Best way to do that is to drive engagement using the old "carrot and the noose" routine. Except there is no carrot.

[gib]

Yes, but in this case both arguments are essentially 'random'.

By allowing the neutral GM to do the random selection (number generator or something), it gives a 1/4 chance of getting a maf, whereas the manoeuvring of the mafs  on day one means that any organised lynching surely moves the percentages to the baddies. Though equally, any good investigation moves it to the townies I suppose.

I'm not really sure what is best as 'optimum strategy', more curious as a (poor) poker player and (poor) economics grad as to what makes for good decision making.

random selection means we might lose our cop or doc, at least if we lynch normally they have a chance to claim should they need to

[DrGreggles]

I'm not sure that's going to be much use as a strategy since Ferris said that he'll vote for the quietest player regardless.

But thread activity has been mentioned numerous times in recent posts, so a noticeable change before night time could flag something up - regardless of how Ferris votes.

[Ferris]

But thread activity has been mentioned numerous times in recent posts, so a noticeable change before night time could flag something up - regardless of how Ferris votes.

I just think it's a good move as a default. It gives as much information as possible for the next day.

random selection means we might lose our cop or doc, at least if we lynch normally they have a chance to claim should they need to

Yeah but if they make that claim they're toast the next round anyway

[Delete Delete Delete]

As of Paul Cafes post, the current number ofp oster per player are as follows.

Kryton 12
Buelligan 14
Dr Grggles 7
Paul Calf 8
Rizla 1
Cerys 8
Cuellur 4
Delete 8
Prision Bisuits 5
Madhair60 4
Ferris 15
Drummersaredeaf 8
Jimbob 2
Rue the Polywhirl 2
Gib 4
This isn't witty sorry 2

So its Rizla as the quietest and  3 way tie for 2nd  quietest between Jimbob, Rue The Polywhirl and This isn't Witty.