Baseball 2023: Shohei Me The Way To Go Home

[Famous Mortimer]

Here's a fun video about just how bonkers this season has been:

[Ferris]

Come back Ferris you know you want to!

Checking in, Jays are still shite though...

[BlodwynPig]

Checking in, Jays are still shite though...

You lied to me on so many levels.

[Famous Mortimer]

Certainly an interesting time to be a Cardinals fan. Adam Wainwright should have retired last year with Pujols and Molina, as I think his attempt to get to 200 wins is not only not going to succeed (he's at 198, and I just don't think he has two more in him) but is going to tarnish his legacy.

He deleted his Twitter account after the London game due to the abuse for his poor performance, but he was even worse tonight. He's not injured, as far as anyone knows, he's just no good. He wasn't going to make the Hall of Fame anyway, and this season absolutely cements that. I know every superstar athlete stays a year too long, competitive drive being stronger than the body and all that, so I don't necessarily blame him for wanting it, but there's no doubt now that he and the team are done. They're on pace for their worst season in decades.

Well done me, as Wainwright just got win 200, and now there seems to a collective forgetting of the absolutely miserable season they've had. They are still on pace for their worst season since at least 1990, and probably even earlier, though. The team are now talking about pinch-hitting with Wainwright, probably at their last home game of the season. Might as well.

I went to another game last weekend, got nosebleed seats and a fun Ozzie Smith bobblehead for $1. There were plenty of people as I was walking to the ballpark who were walking the other way with their bobbleheads, weighing up the $25 they might sell it for down the line with the cost of the cheapest possible tickets / annoyance at having to find somewhere to park.

[Pranet]

For the UK based curious, today from 6pm until the early hours on the iplayer and website the BBC are showing four play off games.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/baseball/66980680

[Ferris]

Checking in, Jays are still shite though...

And lo, it came to pass.

[Attila]

Heh -- been dipping in and out of the iplayer coverage, and at one point, you've got LA down 10 runs to 0 from Arizona, and the commentators musing about anyone being able to come back from a double-digit deficient...and I am reminded of how my beloved Orioles blew an enormous lead against Texas...Rangers coming back with like 9 runs to tie it up in the 9th, and ultimately defeating the Os in extra innings -- 3 grand slams in that game.

https://sabr.org/gamesproj/game/august-6-1986-orioles-slam-rangers-with-9-run-fourth-inning-but-still-lose-game/

I watched it live, and honest to God recall saying to my then husband that I'd be up to bed as soon as the Orioles sewed this one up (since it was the 9th) -- only for it  to go absolutely mental.

I'm sick as a dog at the moment, and four consecutive baseball games may be what the doctor ordered, given that these days I rarely see any. Yike both Orioles and Phillies in the playoffs? I grew up with both of them, since we lived in Delaware, equidistant from both, although with Baltimore-born parents, leaned harder towards the Birds.

[Ferris]

@Attila the O's are really good this year! Since my bumbling Jays crashed out, they've been receiving my support (which is probably more than enough to sink them entirely).

[Attila]

@Attila the O's are really good this year! Since my bumbling Jays crashed out, they've been receiving my support (which is probably more than enough to sink them entirely).

I know! (About their record, not that you're jinxing them :D. Myself am still irked about Cito Gaston snubbing Mike Mussina). I dip into the standings on and off all summer, and was pleasantly surprised to see both them and the Phillies doing so well.

[El Unicornio, mang]

Can someone check that Ferris is OK

https://dodgersnation.com/shohei-ohtani-to-sign-with-toronto-blue-jays-over-los-angeles-dodgers-sources/2023/12/08/

[Ferris]

The edging is killing me. All day I've been refreshing newsfeeds, having mates text me, while also doing my (not insignificantly taxing) job.

Please though, Shohei.

Please.

[Ferris]

I should point out, for the record, that Shohei will obviously sign with the Dodgers.

It's not even really a consideration he comes to Toronto for me. I suspect the Jays will have made the largest $ offer but he won't come here because [insert reason here].

Sounds sarcastic, but this has been my position since day one.

[Ferris]

And since we're making predictions:

Jays 12yrs/$610m
LAD 11yrs/$560m

And it still won't matter because good things just don't happen to Canadian sports and/or any team I like.

[El Unicornio, mang]

I fell victim to Internet gossip, could still happen but yeah Dodgers seems the most likely.

Cubs looked like potentials for a while bit sadly appear to have dropped out of the race.

[dr beat]

Maybe this is one for Baseball 2024, but I've treated myself to a ticket for Phillies v Mets in London next year.

[Famous Mortimer]

And since we're making predictions:

Jays 12yrs/$610m
LAD 11yrs/$560m

And it still won't matter because good things just don't happen to Canadian sports and/or any team I like.

10 years, $700 million. Biggest contract in sport history. If you're going to be second, that's the sort of offer you don't mind getting beaten by.

[Ferris]

10 years, $700 million. Biggest contract in sport history. If you're going to be second, that's the sort of offer you don't mind getting beaten by.

$70m a year is bonkers money.

I am beyond disappointed that he didn't sign with the Jays, but let's assume he's worth 30 WAR in his next 3 years, declining as he goes - the jays can surely find the same value cheaper than $210m.

Plus he's had two Tommy john surgeries already, there's only a ~50% chance he ever throws a competitive major league pitch in his career, let alone becomes the starting ace he was.

At that price, I'm ok with not signing him. Maybe they sell a shitload of jerseys to offset the cost of something, but I don't see it.

[Famous Mortimer]

$70m a year is bonkers money.

I am beyond disappointed that he didn't sign with the Jays, but let's assume he's worth 30 WAR in his next 3 years, declining as he goes - the jays can surely find the same value cheaper than $210m.

I don't think he's super-likely to record 10 WAR a year when he's not going to be pitching for at least a season, but the reason he's worth so much is he's all that value in one roster spot. 30 WAR is like two perennial all-stars - only one Blue Jay put up half-an-Ohtani numbers last year (no mocking Toronto, I don't think any Cardinals got close to 5 fWAR).

I just discovered that the previous biggest contract in sport was Messi, who signed for 4 years  and $674 million, an AAV that makes Ohtani's look like chicken feed.

[Ferris]

To be honest, I'm trying to convince myself more than anything.

[Famous Mortimer]

Be a Cardinals fan! Unless something very weird happens soon, they've got a couple of years of indifference to look forward to (like, they signed the last active player who won a World Series with them a few weeks ago). There's no way they're signing anyone big! I'm looking forward to cheap tickets!

[convulsivespace]

I don't know why any fan would ever want one of these megacontracts. Yeah Ohtani is awesome and it would be fun for a year or two, but there's almost zero chance it's not a disaster for the team in the longterm. Far better hitters than Ohtani have imploded in their 30s. Is he supposed to keep up this miraculous pitching-hitting combo for a decade? Zero chance.

This one is particularly egregious because the contract far exceeds on-field value. The Dodgers are essentially taking payroll space that could be used for other players (the on-field product that fans see) and investing in the massive marketing revenue that Ohtani will bring in. Great for the team executives, not great for fans.

[Famous Mortimer]

"Payroll space" is a lie told by billionaires who want to keep more of your money. This will not affect anything the Dodgers want to do in future, and will be a net positive for them.

Also, it's the best player on the planet, maybe ever! Why wouldn't you want him on "your" team? I don't care how much or how little profit the scumbag who owns the team makes.

[convulsivespace]

"Payroll space" is a lie told by billionaires who want to keep more of your money. This will not affect anything the Dodgers want to do in future, and will be a net positive for them.

Also, it's the best player on the planet, maybe ever! Why wouldn't you want him on "your" team? I don't care how much or how little profit the scumbag who owns the team makes.

Except there is a soft payroll cap in MLB, which teams try to stay under. I'm sure a team like the Dodgers could sustain a $1 billion yearly payroll, but that will never happen absent major changes to the league. So giving huge amount of extra money to Ohtani for the marketing value will affect the overall amount of money available to spend on other players.

Ohtani is amazing. If I was a Dodgers fan I'd be thrilled. But as a non-Dodgers-fan hater, I do think that these megadeals are an objectively bad idea for any team in the longrun.