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indyref2: the Sturgeon strikes back!

Started by Blinder Data, June 14, 2022, 11:14:11 AM

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Blinder Data

Sturgeon kicking off the campaign right now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-61795633

Will it end with a Scottish Independence referendum in 2023 though? Doubtful.

Theremin


dissolute ocelot

If Boris thinks his only chance of staying in power is jettisoning Scotland and wallowing in all the English Tory votes, he'll do it.

Fambo Number Mive

Would he face much of a backlash within England? I get the feeling most people in England aren't that bothered about Scottish independence but some of the right wing commiterriant in England seem very much against it, mostly ones writing for the same media outlets who like to sneer at Scotland from time to time.

jobotic

Don't suppose Paul Dacre will want his 17,000 acre estate to be at the mercy of these foreign devils.

Lot of Scottish land owned by rich English bastards.


Sebastian Cobb

Quote from: Fambo Number Mive on June 14, 2022, 11:31:27 AMWould he face much of a backlash within England? I get the feeling most people in England aren't that bothered about Scottish independence but some of the right wing commiterriant in England seem very much against it, mostly ones writing for the same media outlets who like to sneer at Scotland from time to time.

They see Scotland like how a child sees a neglected toy, won't play with it but by fuck they won't let rescind ownership of it either.

Replies From View

Quote from: jobotic on June 14, 2022, 12:43:27 PMLot of Scottish land owned by rich English bastards.

Just one lot of it

gilbertharding

Quote from: Fambo Number Mive on June 14, 2022, 11:31:27 AMWould he face much of a backlash within England? I get the feeling most people in England aren't that bothered about Scottish independence but some of the right wing commiterriant in England seem very much against it, mostly ones writing for the same media outlets who like to sneer at Scotland from time to time.

I don't know about the commentariat, but I think it would be a shame if the UK (though I'd like it to be a republic, of course) broke up - but I wouldn't blame the Scots if they decided that's what they wanted to do.

However - I do think there's a similar thing to all these English arseholes you get who get all smug about being able to get a German/French/Irish/etc passport post Brexit. Oh thanks a lot, I think, what about the rest of us?

I also wonder why we're supposed to think there's much difference between dyed-in-the-wool Scottish Nationalists (as opposed to people who might vote for Scoxit) and any other kinds of Nationalists.

jamiefairlie

I'd love to be proven wrong but colour me sceptical. I'd be happy but astonished if we see a ref while Sturgeon is in charge.

Dr Trouser

Everything the SNP touches turns to shit, so fully expect this not to happen.

I'm sure the usual patronising people will be out crying "they're fucked without us!!"

Good on em for leaving I say. 

imitationleather

If they leave I'm moving up there immediately.

lipsink

I'm not sure. Part of me thinks that maybe the time has passed. But another part thinks it could be the perfect time. There's already so much instability and uncertainty going on. Will that make people too scared to leave or encourage them to leave? Johnson and this Tory cabinet is a gift to the Yes campaign. If SNP get enough momentum going for it by next year they could very well pull it off. But as like in 2014 they'll have their work cut out.

Zetetic

The problem for English politicians and commentators is that the process and outcome of devolution and independence is bound up with the nature of the Anglo-British state and the identity that underpins it - you might not give a shit about Scotland and Scottish independence in themselves, but you probably do have a view on the continuation of the highly centralised Westminster administration and your role in it.

It's an issue that let's people give expression to their intuitions about hyper-centralisation of the British state versus any kind of localism.

Pinball

Look children, it's the one-trick pony.

Alberon

Whatever the merits of independence Sturgeon does come out with a load of old bollocks.

She was saying yesterday she has a clear legal route to trigger the referendum without the approval of the UK government. I seem to recall in the past she said that the UK government would continue to pay some of the national old age pensions to Scotland after independence.

jamiefairlie

Yeah but only for those who paid into it. That's the same for any country e.g. I move to Canada 20 years ago and I'm a Canadian citizen but will still get my UK pension prorated to the years I paid in. An independent Scotland would be no different, the contract is with individuals, not the country they live in.

jamiefairlie

Quote from: Pinball on June 15, 2022, 10:38:37 AMLook children, it's the one-trick pony.

Christ if only that were true.

shoulders

Pressing the referendum button until you get the answer you like and only having to win a majority once in order to permanently leave the Union is shit-eating crap. Meanwhile, condemning the Scottish - and the rest of us to this cycle of debate and torturous existential angst.

I am instinctively pro-federalist and rarely find nationalism appealing but at this point I can't blame the Scottish if they vote for independence. They have plenty of reason to.

We will unfortunately be vastly the poorer for it, even if the advantages of cutting loose from Westminster are obviously extremely appealing.

Alberon

Quote from: jamiefairlie on June 15, 2022, 03:22:03 PMYeah but only for those who paid into it. That's the same for any country e.g. I move to Canada 20 years ago and I'm a Canadian citizen but will still get my UK pension prorated to the years I paid in. An independent Scotland would be no different, the contract is with individuals, not the country they live in.

But is that the case if the UK splits? Scotland would be expected to pick up the bill for Scottish pensioners, while the remainder of the UK would fund theirs. The idea that pension money would come from the UK for an independent Scotland doesn't hold water.

jamiefairlie

Yes, it was confirmed during the first ref. Obviously not going forward but they are obliged to honour the pensions of those that paid in to the extent that they were part of pension scheme.

Alberon

I can't see that happening. The obligation from the UK government to pay the pension would be devolved to an independent Scottish government. There's no comparison to paying a British pension to an ex-pat.

Ferris

Quote from: imitationleather on June 14, 2022, 05:31:31 PMIf they leave I'm moving up there immediately.

These NO campaigns are getting clever.

superthunderstingcar

I hope that if there's a referendum and if Scotland votes to Leave, then there'll be another, confirmatory referendum on the terms of the deal.

Somehow I don't think there will be.

jamiefairlie

Quote from: Alberon on June 15, 2022, 04:00:48 PMI can't see that happening. The obligation from the UK government to pay the pension would be devolved to an independent Scottish government. There's no comparison to paying a British pension to an ex-pat.

Ok, little thought experiment, all the people in Scotland left to go live in another country, the UK gov still has to pay their pension to the extent they paid in. Thanks a legal obligation. The contract is between the UK pension scheme and the individual, regardless of where they live.

Another example, a person moves from London to Scotland the day after independence, that won't affect their UK pension rights. It's no difference for the people who left the UK in Scotland the day before.

jamiefairlie

Quote from: superthunderstingcar on June 15, 2022, 04:10:41 PMI hope that if there's a referendum and if Scotland votes to Leave, then there'll be another, confirmatory referendum on the terms of the deal.

Somehow I don't think there will be.

Yeah like all those other countries that left the UK? Most of them didn't even have votes at all, just a unilateral declaration.

Paul Calf

Quote from: Fambo Number Mive on June 14, 2022, 11:31:27 AMWould he face much of a backlash within England? I get the feeling most people in England aren't that bothered about Scottish independence but some of the right wing commiterriant in England seem very much against it, mostly ones writing for the same media outlets who like to sneer at Scotland from time to time.

Johnson going into an election year having overseen the breakup of the United Kingdom? As head of the Conservative and Unionist Party?

I don't think he'd fancy that.

shoulders

Quote from: Paul Calf on June 15, 2022, 04:25:30 PMJohnson going into an election year having overseen the breakup of the United Kingdom? As head of the Conservative and Unionist Party?

I don't think he'd fancy that.

English conservative voters know it isn't in their ultimate control to prevent Scotland leaving so won't blame Johnson.

So long as they get to wave the Union Jack and there's a Queen/King and our Army gets to ram some foreigners into a ditch once a decade they're golden. Pathetic though that obviously is.

Brexit was an expression of English nationalism anyway.


Zetetic

Yeah, Scottish independence itself doesn't really threaten the interests of Anglo-British nationalists. However, it will demand an answer of some sort - an English parliament, drawing back in of devolution in the remains of the Union (Wales, Manchester, NI), withdrawal from international commitments (e.g. ECtHR), whatever.