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March 29, 2024, 09:31:36 AM

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indyref2: the Sturgeon strikes back!

Started by Blinder Data, June 14, 2022, 11:14:11 AM

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Alberon

Quote from: jamiefairlie on June 15, 2022, 04:16:34 PMOk, little thought experiment, all the people in Scotland left to go live in another country, the UK gov still has to pay their pension to the extent they paid in. Thanks a legal obligation. The contract is between the UK pension scheme and the individual, regardless of where they live.

Another example, a person moves from London to Scotland the day after independence, that won't affect their UK pension rights. It's no difference for the people who left the UK in Scotland the day before.

The difference is that when Scotland becomes independent you have the UK as it is now becoming Scotland and the Rest of UK. The pension responsibilities in Scotland will go to the Scottish government. It won't be like it is now. Scotland will take on part of the national debt as part of the separation, that will be a fiesty negotiation.

The idea that a newly independent Scotland can walk away from all pre-independence responsibilites is absurd. I don't know what would happen to people with dual nationality, but the Rest of UK could cut off anyone pensionwise who lives north of the border. Probably be a vote winner too.

Blinder Data

Re: pensions, this blog post is helpful: https://fraserofallander.org/who-pays-the-state-pension-in-an-independent-scotland/

I must admit I naively assumed there was a pension "pot":

Quote from: https://fraserofallander.org/who-pays-the-state-pension-in-an-independent-scotland/But state pensions are not paid for from a "pot" that individuals build up during their working lives. Instead they are paid using money from today's taxes and borrowing – a pay-as-you-go scheme. Since individuals have no ownership rights over their past contributions, the UK Government can change the qualifying rules for state pensions as its sees fit.  Recent and proposed increases in the qualifying retirement age are examples of it such rule-changes. The State Pension is simply a benefit that UK government could reduce, or even, in principle, eliminate.

Talking to a soft Tory friend yesterday, it was amusing to see that although he constantly makes shifting excuses for trying to ignore the shit that Brexit has dropped everyone into with regards to the Northern Ireland/EU border, the first thing the could think of for rejecting Scottish Independence was that there'd be a hard border on the British Isles... It's just an anecdote, but it accords with what I think is going to be the reaction from Parliament; they'll fight against giving legal regcognition all the way this time. Not because they think they'll lose an independence vote (they might) but because their own voters will absolutely hate the idea and they've got no political capital to spend on being unpopular with their gammon any more.

I'm not a nationalist, but a socialist internationalist and I'd be very sad to see more parts of the world break up into tribal identities; I can understand it though considering just how appalling the current UK Government is, but frankly, I can't see how the SNP gets a legal referendum, it just seems to be more wishful thinking along the same lines as that the Boris Government they're desperate to escape was just going to let the Scots use the Pound, the kind of "but I really, really want too!" Everything-is-good-for-Nationalists daydreams that didn't convince the Scots voters last time.

Being forced out of the EU against Scottish wishes, and having the worst government in living memory changes things, and more towards pro-Independence... but having the worst government in living memory means they're more likely to double down on playing hardball this time and not giving the Scots any chance of achieving it.

But you just know over at Wingnuts over Socialism they're currently wanking themselves into a frenzy trying to decide which of their fanatical delusions needs to come out on top here; Independence or hatred for Trans people? Hatred for Sturgeon or hatred for people's sexuality and identity?

Such a shame that decent Scots are caught between such a complete shower of shits.

superthunderstingcar

Quote from: jamiefairlie on June 15, 2022, 04:17:38 PMYeah like all those other countries that left the UK? Most of them didn't even have votes at all, just a unilateral declaration.
I was more thinking of the way the EU Referendum was handled, and how the version of Brexit we got was not any of the (conflicting) versions of Brexit that the Vote Leave politicians promised.

If there isn't a confirmatory referendum before Scotland Leaves, it could well be hijacked by the "independence at any cost" brigade (that are the Scottish equivalent of the ERG/UKIP types), resulting in the hardest version of Independence possible.

shoulders

Quote from: Blinder Data on June 15, 2022, 05:10:11 PMRe: pensions, this blog post is helpful: https://fraserofallander.org/who-pays-the-state-pension-in-an-independent-scotland/

I must admit I naively assumed there was a pension "pot":


This is how state pension funding works but most people mistakenly understand it is almost the opposite of that, unfortunately, as the above article points out.

dex

The thing I find interesting is that it isn't really true independence that Sturgeon wants. They want to break away from England and then rejoin the EU. So they'll be dependent on them instead. Will it be any better for your everyday ordinary folks in Scotland? Would they have to convert to using the Euro? Its their vote if it happens but as others have said the whole nationalism thing isn't great. For all the fuckery of the Tories (no shortage of that) Sturgeon needs to concentrate on getting her and Scotlands house in order IMO.

Quote from: dex on June 15, 2022, 07:08:28 PMThe thing I find interesting is that it isn't really true independence that Sturgeon wants. They want to break away from England and then rejoin the EU. So they'll be dependent on them instead. Will it be any better for your everyday ordinary folks in Scotland? Would they have to convert to using the Euro? Its their vote if it happens but as others have said the whole nationalism thing isn't great. For all the fuckery of the Tories (no shortage of that) Sturgeon needs to concentrate on getting her and Scotlands house in order IMO.

As if Englands house is in order.  We are led by donkeys.  I would take Sturgeon over the torys any day of the week.

Alberon

There are questions over whether Scotland could join the EU as its level of debt (as a share of the UK's) would be higher than is allowed for entry. I'd expect they would have to take the Euro as well.

If Scotland ever legally votes to leave the haggling over the UK's assets is going to be extraordinary. The national debt and pensions as mentioned, the Trident nuclear submarine base (the UK would probably have to lease that from Scotland), the NHS and even the BBC would have to be split. It will take years to work out.

Quote from: Mrs Wogans lemon drizzle on June 15, 2022, 07:26:25 PMAs if Englands house is in order.  We are led by donkeys.  I would take Sturgeon over the torys any day of the week.

Oh yeah, she's hopeless, but still several magnitudes of order more competent than Johnson and his minions.

shoulders

I'm hardly pro-nationalism but the 'They'll rejoin the EU'...Not so independent after all! ' argument is not exactly the rugpull you think it is.

There is a degree of truth in the post though. What Sturgeon should be worried about is the SNP losing their existential purpose and USP, and suddenly not being able to point blame at the Tories or Westminster and having the accountability that comes with that

... not to mention that Scottish versions of the various political parties will be unleashed and able to position themselves in a singular coherent way against the SNP without the mess of Westminster politics to intervene. All empires must fall and independence may coincide with the Scots getting sick of the same party in power.

Better still, with Scottish Labour severed, they can carry on with their horrid Blairite shitfit, meanwhile, there's basically a free run at the centre left for a new party that would almost certainly emerge once an independent state was formed, because nationalism always involves a rush to do everything differently, even in ways that are patently ridiculous, in order to reinforce their sense of statehood. There will be new parties, rebrands, maybe even a different system of voting.

dex

Quote from: Mrs Wogans lemon drizzle on June 15, 2022, 07:26:25 PMAs if Englands house is in order.  We are led by donkeys.  I would take Sturgeon over the torys any day of the week.

Agreed with your first part. Sturgeon I'd kick in the bin just like the tories though.

Paul Calf

Quote from: Alberon on June 15, 2022, 07:30:40 PMThere are questions over whether Scotland could join the EU as its level of debt (as a share of the UK's) would be higher than is allowed for entry. I'd expect they would have to take the Euro as well.

If Scotland ever legally votes to leave the haggling over the UK's assets is going to be extraordinary. The national debt and pensions as mentioned, the Trident nuclear submarine base (the UK would probably have to lease that from Scotland), the NHS and even the BBC would have to be split. It will take years to work out.

Oh yeah, she's hopeless, but still several magnitudes of order more competent than Johnson and his minions.

NHS England and NHS Scotland are already separate.

dex

Quote from: shoulders on June 15, 2022, 07:36:38 PMI'm hardly pro-nationalism but the 'They'll rejoin the EU'...Not so independent after all! ' argument is not exactly the rugpull you think it is.

There is a degree of truth in the post though. What Sturgeon should be worried about is the SNP losing their existential purpose and USP, and suddenly not being able to point blame at the Tories or Westminster and having the accountability that comes with that

... not to mention that Scottish versions of the various political parties will be unleashed and able to position themselves in a singular coherent way against the SNP without the mess of Westminster politics to intervene. All empires must fall and independence may coincide with the Scots getting sick of the same party in power.

Better still, with Scottish Labour severed, they can carry on with their horrid Blairite shitfit, meanwhile, there's basically a free run at the centre left for a new party that would almost certainly emerge once an independent state was formed, because nationalism always involves a rush to do everything differently, even in ways that are patently ridiculous, in order to reinforce their sense of statehood. There will be new parties, rebrands, maybe even a different system of voting.

I wasn't looking to pull anyone's rug or piss on anyone's chips. Its just not going to be true independence as I see it. You're bang on right about the SNP then having to be accountable if they were to break away and then not having the convenience of having the usual blame targets. Agreed there with you.


dissolute ocelot

Quote from: Alberon on June 15, 2022, 07:30:40 PMThere are questions over whether Scotland could join the EU as its level of debt (as a share of the UK's) would be higher than is allowed for entry. I'd expect they would have to take the Euro as well.
The EU is massively good at changing the rules as they go along. Same with the Euro: various countries like Sweden are officially supposed to be moving towards adopting the Euro but really aren't bothered. Joining the EU would mean making sacrifices on some areas, like fishing, but I don't think most Scots would really care about fishing.

A hard border for trade with England is definitely going to be an issue if Scotland wants to join the EU. Maybe they'll have worked out what's happening in Northern Ireland by then, although it's not directly comparable as Northern Ireland acts as a buffer with the Republic under the current Protocol, but there'd be no buffer between Scotland and England. That said, while it would affect a lot of businesses it's hardly an existential issue for the Scottish nation - much like Brexit people would lose jobs, but like Brexit a lot of people would see it as part of the noble fight.

There are a lot of interesting decisions to be made by the SNP; I just hope that they actually make firm, evidence-based decisions about things like currency before the referendum, rather than muddling through after a vote. But I'm not terribly confident in them.

To be honest, I still am a little bit skeptical there even will be a vote in 2023 - maybe a "after the next election" compromise with Westminster. After all, it's clear that no matter how slow the referendum is, nobody's going to vote Alba.

beanheadmcginty

My mum's opinion on all this (which was apparently also the opinion of her Scottish mother when she was alive) is that "it's only the Glaswegians who want independence because they're all Irish. Won't ever happen." So I'm afraid that's that. You're stuck with us.

superthunderstingcar

Quote from: dissolute ocelot on June 15, 2022, 08:29:35 PMTo be honest, I still am a little bit skeptical there even will be a vote in 2023 - maybe a "after the next election" compromise with Westminster. After all, it's clear that no matter how slow the referendum is, nobody's going to vote Alba.
A referendum late on in 2023 followed by a UK general election in early 2024 just threatens to be a repeat of what happened in 2014 and then 2015, and I include the Tories winning both votes in that prediction.

Zetetic

Quote from: Paul Calf on June 15, 2022, 08:16:28 PM[The NHS in England] and NHS Scotland are already separate.
And always have been since '48. (In contrast to NHS Wales and the NHS in England which only really split in 1999-2001.)

(NHS England is an organisation, or possibly half-an-organisation now who the fuck even knows, in the NHS in England. The NHS in England, unhelpfully, brands itself 'the NHS' and squats 'nhs.uk' domains and social media accounts.)

Paul Calf

UK public organisations are structurally chaotic and only have the most tenous of grips on the technology on which they now rely?

As a software developer contractor within HMRC, I would never have guessed ;)

Pinball

I can understand why Scots might want to become independent, whatever independent means, but it's clear that all affected countries would be the weaker for it. Just look at the disaster of Brexit, that even many Leavers now regret. Putin and our other enemies want us to disintegrate as much as possible, because it makes us weaker, and the latter is the issue IMO. We are already collapsing into oblivion fast enough currently, surely?

Brexit Mini-Me with nukes on top.

Blinder Data

It's interesting that this was billed as a campaign launch - felt like a damp squib. I suppose she has to go through the motions and show she's doing something, otherwise the broader Yes movement might abandon her completely. I look forward to the government papers, especially on the border and currency.

I just can't see how there's a 100% legal referendum held next year. Anything without UKG approval would look illegitimate. Which takes us to 2024 and the general election. 'Coalition of chaos' jibes might be thrown but there is no way Starmer would promise indyref2, so whoever wins, again we're stuck.

It will be fascinating to see what the effects of a possible UK Labour government might have on the SNP and the enthusiasm for Scottish independence more broadly.

Quote from: Blinder Data on June 16, 2022, 01:29:35 PMI just can't see how there's a 100% legal referendum held next year. Anything without UKG approval would look illegitimate.

There's a difference between legitimacy and legality. I'm not sure a refusal by the UK government to consent to a referendum carries much weight at this stage in the game, given Johnson's own lawbreaking and general conduct in office, against the background off the repeated election in Scotland of a party standing on an explicit policy of holding another independence referendum.

It also needs to be borne in mind that there are principles of international law, such as the principle of self-determination, that come into play if it was to be asserted that the UK's rag-bag of an unwritten constitution entitled the UK government to refuse consent.

If consent for a second referendum was refused, there would come a point where it would become arguable that the Union was being maintained through compulsion rather than the consent of the Scottish people. As tentative and reluctant as the SNP now seem to be at times, doing nothing in the face of refusal of consent is simply not an option.

There's a difference between legitimacy and legality. I'm not sure a refusal by the UK government to consent to a referendum carries much weight at this stage in the game, given Johnson's own lawbreaking and general conduct in office, against the background off the repeated election in Scotland of a party standing on an explicit policy of holding another independence referendum.

It also needs to be borne in mind that there are principles of international law, such as the principle of self-determination, that could come into play should it be asserted that the UK's rag-bag of an unwritten constitution entitled the UK government to refuse consent.

If consent for a second referendum was refused, there would come a point where it would become arguable that the Union was being maintained through compulsion rather than the consent of the Scottish people. As tentative and reluctant as the SNP now seem to be at times, doing nothing in the face of refusal of consent is simply not an option.

Alberon

If there hadn't been a referendum in the near past that might work as an argument.

Especially since the polls are at a dead heat at the moment rather than overwhelmingly in favour of independence.

If the no side refuse to engage with the SNP's referendum it'll have no legitimacy alongside no legality.

Quote from: Alberon on June 16, 2022, 04:31:55 PMIf there hadn't been a referendum in the near past that might work as an argument.

Especially since the polls are at a dead heat at the moment rather than overwhelmingly in favour of independence.

If the no side refuse to engage with the SNP's referendum it'll have no legitimacy alongside no legality.

It's going to be a decade, or not far off it, by the time a second referendum comes around, so hardly recent. Also there have been some pretty significant changes in circumstances since then, not least the UK leaving the EU against Scotland's will, when we were told that staying in the Union was the only way to remain in the EU.

Although I have reservations about the EU, it's much the lesser evil compared to the era of deregulated isolationism we're entering. At the moment, there's an extensive legacy of law and standards originating from the EU still around in the UK, including Scotland, but this is going to be gradually ditched by the UK government so if the proposition is an independent Scotland within the EU, it's going to be far easier to do it within the near future, rather than having to try and do so years down the line when there are all sorts of divergence from EU practice.

Opinion polls are opinion polls - snapshots of opinion at a given time; election results are binding and the SNP has stood and won in multiple elections on the policy of a second referendum.

The 'no' side can refuse to engage in any 'unofficial' referendum if it likes, but it would be taking a big risk, and I'm not convinced that the question of legitimacy then would be as black-and-white as you suggest.

jamiefairlie

joining EFTA is much quicker and gets us free movement of people and free market, the most important things.

Pinball

#54
.

dissolute ocelot

The BBC is claiming the SNP could unilaterally hold a referendum on whether to open independence negotiations with Westminster, without a Section 30 order. (They can certainly negotiate with the government on anything, with or without a referendum, although the UK government doesn't have to agree with them; and could agree to hold an official referendum after negotiations, I don't know.) It still sounds poised for years of legal struggle, but if you assume Sturgeon doesn't particularly want a referendum yet, then years of legal struggle would be a win for her.

Blinder Data

#56
indyref2 proposed for 19 October 2023 by FM just now in parliament. God knows if it will happen...

I must say I don't believe her when she says "I fervently hope that the Tories lose the next election". Having indyref2 while the Tories/Johnson are in charge at Westminster is ideal.

EDIT: I misunderstood

Alberon

QuoteSturgeon says if the supreme court rules that the referendum is not lawful, that will be the fault of the referendum written in Westminster.

She says there will be no more powerful argument for the need for independence.

And if the supreme court, and the Westminster government, continue to block a refernedum, the SNP will fight the next general election on the sole platform that Scotland should be independent.


TrenterPercenter

Great politicking from Sturgeon though guaranteed cementing her legacy and a big win at the next election regardless what happens.

The most talented British politician of the modern era.

Sebastian Cobb

Quote from: Pinball on June 16, 2022, 10:59:31 AMI can understand why Scots might want to become independent, whatever independent means, but it's clear that all affected countries would be the weaker for it. Just look at the disaster of Brexit, that even many Leavers now regret. Putin and our other enemies want us to disintegrate as much as possible, because it makes us weaker, and the latter is the issue IMO. We are already collapsing into oblivion fast enough currently, surely?

Brexit Mini-Me with nukes on top.

I doubt most people pushing for independence plan on Scotland remaining out of the EU, or if they do probably still wouldn't begrudge going back to the EEA. With that in mind it seems like a widening rather than shrinking position in the world. England can put their nukes back in their bit of the sea as well while they're at it.