Donald Trump

[dissolute ocelot]

It'll be interesting to see what the Supreme Court do about his ballot bans, but it's unlikely to affect the election. Most likely outcome is that the corrupt judges will overturn them on some dubious logic. But even if he remains banned from standing in a couple of states, it's only going to happen in states that are solidly Democrat with well-packed courts and legislatures, and therefore won't affect the election anyway.

It definitely looks like Trump could win thanks to the Democrats as usual not bothering to find a decent candidate, although I'm not sure what odds I'd give you (Biden's vote will depend a lot on what happens before the election in the economy, foreign wars, and other stuff we just don't know). It's going to be Biden vs Trump, and our best hope is that one or other of them dies before November.

[ajsmith2]

It's going to be Biden vs Trump, and our best hope is that one or other of them dies before November.

[BlodwynPig]

Dunno about this, as in genuinely don't know, not that it won't happen but that I don't see it as a fait accompli. Folk assumed Hillary would get in in 2016 and that Trump would get in in 2020. Who knows. Thing is I don't get the same 'unstoppable inevitable rolling wrecking ball' vibe off Trump today as I did by the same point in Jan 2016. That said there's still no one else with anything like the same charisma and recognition. Biden is of course very weak and senile (and it's hard not to see an avenging Trump DESTROYing him in debates) although my impression was he was performing better than expected (low bar admittedly) before he futzed things up with Israel/Gaza.

"Debates". They are little more than schoolyard heckling.

[Brass Moustache]

Yes, I think some of the Republican candidates are really just competing to be Trump's VP.

since i typed that DeSantis has already effectively thrown in the towel.

[damien]

Hang on if they didn't vote for him last time, why would they vote for him this time? Also surely the Roe stuff will have a huge impact again (Cf. the non-occurring 'Red Wave' at the mid-terms).

[The Culture Bunker]

Hang on if they didn't vote for him last time, why would they vote for him this time? Also surely the Roe stuff will have a huge impact again (Cf. the non-occurring 'Red Wave' at the mid-terms).

I suspect the idea is that everyone who voted for him last time does so again, but apathy towards Biden means Trump's total this time is enough.

[convulsivespace]

It's amazing how accurately Tim Heidecker's On Cinema character anticipated the entire Trump era.

Trump didn't agree to do so, instead launching into his remarks.

"What's happened here, sir, is a fraud on me," Trump said, claiming he was being targeted by officials who "want to make sure I don't win again." He later accused the judge of not listening to him: "I know this is boring to you."

"Control your client," Engoron warned Kise.

Engoron then told Trump he had a minute left, let him speak a little more, and then adjourned.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-fraud-lawsuit-new-york-closing-arguments-b36abe2fd695d0172e71f8ef9c5ee7f3

[DelurkedToHelp]

Hang on if they didn't vote for him last time, why would they vote for him this time? Also surely the Roe stuff will have a huge impact again (Cf. the non-occurring 'Red Wave' at the mid-terms).

"non-occurring" Yeah, them taking back the House of Representatives was really insignificant.

[Mister Six]

Trump will absolutely bulldoze the next election.

Nah, even if he won it'd be a near thing, and dependent on people staying away from the polls rather than voting for him. Remember, he only won last time because he had votes from people who weren't sure but hated Clinton or just wanted some kind of change (he got a good chunk of Obama voters, so it wasn't all frothing racists).

Biden fucking sucks, but Trump isn't going to win back anyone who drifted away to Biden in 2020, especially as he gets more and more incoherent and unhinged.

[gilbertharding]

Never underestimate the stupidity of voters, or the people who repeatedly play into the hands of Trump by giving him the oxygen of publicity (or allowing him to run against actual geriatrics).

[Video Game Fan 2000]

i dont think trump has a good chance of winning, or else we wouldn't see the GOP try to prop up security candidates in form of haley and desantis. if he had a decent shot it would be all trump all the time

however it could very easily change if the situation in the middle east escalates or dustbag joe says a lot of bollocks in response to a natural disaster or crime scandal

im not a doomer but im not very secure either

[BlodwynPig]

i dont think trump has a good chance of winning, or else we wouldn't see the GOP try to prop up security candidates in form of haley and desantis. if he had a decent shot it would be all trump all the time

however it could very easily change if the situation in the middle east escalates or dustbag joe says a lot of bollocks in response to a natural disaster or crime scandal

im not a doomer but im not very secure either

You want to see a Starmer-Biden-Macron bro sandwich?

Blanched bacon, crusty bread and garlic snails.

[Video Game Fan 2000]

You want to see a Starmer-Biden-Macron bro sandwich?

Blanched bacon, crusty bread and garlic snails.

and they're saying "secretly im the progressive one"

[kngen]

There is also the immigration factor - usually a Republican canard to scare old white people into voting, but now a talking point in historically Dem-leaning demographics, such as black and Hispanic voters. A good friend of mine is a photojournalist who is currently working on long-term project to tell the stories of asylum seekers and immigrants making their journeys by foot through Central America and to the US-Mexican border (and beyond), where they are often scooped up and transported to Dem-led 'sanctuary cities' by Texas border patrols and their Republican overlords.

He's dividing his time between Juarez and Chicago and says that cities like Chicago are barely able to handle the volume of new arrivals, with very visible tent cities springing up as folk await their turn to get processed. As a result, both the black and Hispanic communities that are in closest contact to the overspill (as they are historically in the poorer parts of the city, long in need of regeneration, but where empty buildings are now being used as temporary refuges) are not happy in the slightest. The standard 'how come they get x but we get y' is being heard more and more - and, as Brexit showed us, it's not a matter of how truthful the stories of preferential treatment actually are; it's how many people believe and accept it to be the case that will make the difference - a number that seems to be increasing, unfortunately.

On a national level, the Dems, of course, are doing fuck all about this other than trying to placate white boomers with sops to MAGA America's posse comitatus fantasies, so this could really fuck them. I'm fairly convinced that DeSantis and Abbot's plan to dump these people at the Dem states' front-door was inspired by little more than spite, but they might have stumbled across a plan to drive a particularly contentious wedge between the Dems and a significant chunk of their more reliable voters. I fear the worst.

[convulsivespace]

Nah, even if he won it'd be a near thing, and dependent on people staying away from the polls rather than voting for him. Remember, he only won last time because he had votes from people who weren't sure but hated Clinton or just wanted some kind of change (he got a good chunk of Obama voters, so it wasn't all frothing racists).

Biden fucking sucks, but Trump isn't going to win back anyone who drifted away to Biden in 2020, especially as he gets more and more incoherent and unhinged.

Even assuming Biden keeps the same popular vote margin and 'wins' handily, he's going to have an uphill battle considering how close the electoral college really was last time. It will only take <6,000 voters switching sides to flip Arizona and Georgia, which is easy to imagine through anti-incumbent effects alone (from 'everything is shit Trump needs to go' to 'everything is shit Biden needs to go'). And it won't be any easier holding Michigan after alienating the entire Arab population.

[Mister Six]

None of this is "absolutely bulldozing Biden" though.

[gabrielconroy]

There is also the immigration factor - usually a Republican canard to scare old white people into voting, but now a talking point in historically Dem-leaning demographics, such as black and Hispanic voters. A good friend of mine is a photojournalist who is currently working on long-term project to tell the stories of asylum seekers and immigrants making their journeys by foot through Central America and to the US-Mexican border (and beyond), where they are often scooped up and transported to Dem-led 'sanctuary cities' by Texas border patrols and their Republican overlords.

He's dividing his time between Juarez and Chicago and says that cities like Chicago are barely able to handle the volume of new arrivals, with very visible tent cities springing up as folk await their turn to get processed. As a result, both the black and Hispanic communities that are in closest contact to the overspill (as they are historically in the poorer parts of the city, long in need of regeneration, but where empty buildings are now being used as temporary refuges) are not happy in the slightest. The standard 'how come they get x but we get y' is being heard more and more - and, as Brexit showed us, it's not a matter of how truthful the stories of preferential treatment actually are; it's how many people believe and accept it to be the case that will make the difference - a number that seems to be increasing, unfortunately.

On a national level, the Dems, of course, are doing fuck all about this other than trying to placate white boomers with sops to MAGA America's posse comitatus fantasies, so this could really fuck them. I'm fairly convinced that DeSantis and Abbot's plan to dump these people at the Dem states' front-door was inspired by little more than spite, but they might have stumbled across a plan to drive a particularly contentious wedge between the Dems and a significant chunk of their more reliable voters. I fear the worst.

That all sounds very interesting. Has he published anything on this yet?

[Brass Moustache]

Biden fucking sucks, but Trump isn't going to win back anyone who drifted away to Biden in 2020, especially as he gets more and more incoherent and unhinged.

I hope you're right. I hope i have more time to visit non-goblin america.

[Brass Moustache]

Even assuming Biden keeps the same popular vote margin and 'wins' handily, he's going to have an uphill battle considering how close the electoral college really was last time. It will only take <6,000 voters switching sides to flip Arizona and Georgia, which is easy to imagine through anti-incumbent effects alone (from 'everything is shit Trump needs to go' to 'everything is shit Biden needs to go'). And it won't be any easier holding Michigan after alienating the entire Arab population.

Yeah but lets be honest Trump hasn't done anything to enamour the arab population so its a lesser of evils situation.

[Ferris]

I'd give you 50/50 on trump winning, and considering he's not even officially the R candidate yet that's quite mad. The fact he's being indicted federally and on state charges and nobody cares should be setting off alarm bells.

It's biden's to lose. If he inadvertently does a poo in his trousers on stage or mortgage rates/gas prices spike, he's done.

I think trump in a second term would be genuinely quite scary. Not just "ooh he's rudely defying convention" but dangerously authoritarian. It was defensible to vote for him in 2016 because the alternative was Hillary Clinton and fuck it, Hail Mary, give this guy a go. In 2022, I think a vote for him is a vote for fascism and he is scarily popular and close to the Oval Office.

[gabrielconroy]

I'd give you 50/50 on trump winning, and considering he's not even officially the R candidate yet that's quite mad. The fact he's being indicted federally and on state charges and nobody cares should be setting off alarm bells.

It's biden's to lose. If he inadvertently does a poo in his trousers on stage or mortgage rates/gas prices spike, he's done.

I think trump in a second term would be genuinely quite scary. Not just "ooh he's rudely defying convention" but dangerously authoritarian. It was defensible to vote for him in 2016 because the alternative was Hillary Clinton and fuck it, Hail Mary, give this guy a go. In 2022, I think a vote for him is a vote for fascism and he is scarily popular and close to the Oval Office.

I think it would likely be the end of American democracy as we know it, as hyperbolic as that might sound.

[Ant Farm Keyboard]

Eight years ago, Trump was making headlines on a daily base for his tweets. These days, Truth only gets him a small share of the same attention, while his rants in court don't play to his strengths.

Not to say that he can't win, just stating that the situation will be very different on many fronts.

[Brass Moustache]

I'd give you 50/50 on trump winning, and considering he's not even officially the R candidate yet that's quite mad. The fact he's being indicted federally and on state charges and nobody cares should be setting off alarm bells.

It's biden's to lose. If he inadvertently does a poo in his trousers on stage or mortgage rates/gas prices spike, he's done.

I think trump in a second term would be genuinely quite scary. Not just "ooh he's rudely defying convention" but dangerously authoritarian. It was defensible to vote for him in 2016 because the alternative was Hillary Clinton and fuck it, Hail Mary, give this guy a go. In 2022, I think a vote for him is a vote for fascism and he is scarily popular and close to the Oval Office.

tbf in 2016 it was no less a vote for fascism because it normalised his brand.

Granted, its scarier this time because last time was just a 'trial run' and this time he's found his baby feet and knows exactly how when and why he can get away with the shit  he wants to do.

[convulsivespace]

I don't really find Trump frightening or see where the "existential threat to democracy" comes from (as if we had democracy in the first place, but that's a separate matter), because Trump amazingly but genuinely has zero interest in political power. There has never been a more predictable public figure or a more extreme example of narcissistic personality disorder. He didn't try to overturn the 2020 election results because he's a dictator, he did it because he was mad on a personal level that he was declared a loser in public.

He will probably govern as an even more extreme version of Republican orthodoxy than last time though, which is bad and dangerous enough. His lack of interest in politics and his personal vendettas against the RNC makes him an easy puppet for far-right ideological groups.

[DelurkedToHelp]

You undermine your "my opponent is a threat to democracy" argument when you're trying to get him thrown off the ballot rather than, you know, letting the people decide, you're cancelling your own party's primaries in key states like Florida and you're bypassing Congress multiple times in order to bomb various countries.

[idunnosomename]

Trump's biggest problem is that he never became an insult comic

that's good... FOR ME TO TRUMP ON

[dontpaintyourteeth]

he never forgave god for not making him joan rivers

[BlodwynPig]

I think it would likely be the end of American democracy as we know it, as hyperbolic as that might sound.

American democracy ended with the arrival of the first white settlers.

[Mister Six]

I don't really find Trump frightening or see where the "existential threat to democracy" comes from (as if we had democracy in the first place, but that's a separate matter), because Trump amazingly but genuinely has zero interest in political power. There has never been a more predictable public figure or a more extreme example of narcissistic personality disorder. He didn't try to overturn the 2020 election results because he's a dictator, he did it because he was mad on a personal level that he was declared a loser in public.

He will probably govern as an even more extreme version of Republican orthodoxy than last time though, which is bad and dangerous enough. His lack of interest in politics and his personal vendettas against the RNC makes him an easy puppet for far-right ideological groups.

I agree with this. The threat that Trump represents is that he'll do more or less anything the worst Republican figures ask so long as they suck up to him first. Which is a fucking horrible threat, admittedly.

The messianic cult that's formed around him might want him to be leader in perpetuity, but I think it would be pretty trivial to persuade him to magnanimously step down having completed his second term so he can enjoy his sycophants and burned steaks.

[Catalogue Trousers]

It's all just political theater so the Democrats can run another Trump Evil campaign.

Are even the Democrats really that fucking stupid, though? 'Oh tee hee, ORANGE MAN BAD! Oh shit, ORANGE MAN PRESIDENT AGAIN BECAUSE WE ENABLED HIM TO BE!'