Lockdown Forecast

[Abnormal Palm]

Again, the further details of the weeks-old Imperial College report trickle out via the UK government.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52082781

In summary: It's going to be a matter of three months rather than three weeks, and the timeframe is entirely dependent on the behaviour of each of us, as individualsl. I'm glad that they've at least finally said it.

And again, this entire strategy is largely identical to what has happened in Wuhan, albeit with a marginally different timeframe. The key difference is that the Hubei government was very upfront in saying the above before lockdown began. Again, I suspect that the UK government approach of allowing public shaming to do the hard work on comms is probably more suited to our cultural mindset, but also another reason why our initial spike is likely to be worse. And to hammer home this point, had we gone into lockdown sooner as was discussed weeks ago here, not as many people in this country would be due to die.

My lockdown forecast going off what my mates in Wuhan have been saying this week is that people will start going back to work on rotas and reduced shifts, and there will be ID to demonstrate if you can travel on the limited public transport available and enter certain key buildings, such as malls and hospitals. I'd start prepping myself for that mentally and economically, if possible.

Take care, all.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

A decent outcome looks like mid-late May for any reversal at all of the current restrictions.

The economic pressures to restart will be enormous, so I anticipate as soon as new infections drop below 300 a day they will start turning things back on gradually.

Everyone thinks there will be a corona freedom party like its the victory at the end of the war, but what we will be facing is a gradual transition that does not feature a Back To Normal at the end of it. Months of massively curtailed civic freedoms in a ravaged economy, then a sharp intake of breath ahead of winter. Rough seas, folks.

[El Unicornio, mang]

a corona freedom party like its the victory at the end of the war,

Yay :)

but what we will be facing is a gradual transition that does not feature a Back To Normal at the end of it. Months of massively curtailed civic freedoms in a ravaged economy

Oooh :(

[Abnormal Palm]

While the government continue to say very little, the information is being dripfed as ever via the BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52183295

Now it's our job to pass this onto the rest of the population.

Tl;dr: End of May there will likely be some measures lifted, with geographical and demographic variables to be considered. As a concrete example not from the article, a rural primary school is more likely to be open than an inner-city comp. A barber's is more likely than a pub. A golf course more likely than a gym, etc.

Only when we know the impact of these reduced measures will be able to decide what comes next.

At some point, we can expect the 'shielding' of the most vulnerable to simply become their way of life until a vaccine or treatment is found.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

Will the procurement and distribution of sausages remain constant?

[poo]

3pm, Thursday

[Butchers Blind]

A barber's is more likely than a pub.

My local barber lets you have a complimentary bottle of beer while you wait.

[Abnormal Palm]

Will the procurement and distribution of sausages remain constant?

There is currently only one case of homo-porcine transmission (now recovered) so the risk appears to be minimal. I read that in Wuhan they are using latex as sausage skins to be extra safe so we can expect that policy to be piped out across butchers nationwide by early June.

[Dr Trouser]

I can't believe that anyone puts any credence into anything that Neil Ferguson spews out of his arse, the total throbber.

[Alberon]

I suppose everyone will be watching China to see how bad the second wave of this is.

But I expect the lockdown to start ending around mid May. Social Distancing will be in place for between one to two years until a vaccine can be developed, though I expect that will only be enforcible in public.

[Pdine]

I can't believe that anyone puts any credence into anything that Neil Ferguson spews out of his arse, the total throbber.

There is the slight issue that his modelling is based on a bit of software he wrote thirteen years ago and didn't document:

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1241835454707699713

[Johnny Yesno]

While the government continue to say very little, the information is being dripfed as ever via the BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52183295

If a vaccine does not come along (people are hopeful, but it is requiring development at unprecedented speed) then the concept of herd immunity may kick in.

This would happen when so many people had been infected (up to 70% of the population) that the virus can no longer cause large outbreaks.

No, no, no, you fucking idiots. Immunised not infected. Now's not the time for shoddy reporting.

[Dewt]

-

[Alberon]

We still don't know how long a period of immunity (if any) getting infected gives.

[BlodwynPig]

There is the slight issue that his modelling is based on a bit of software he wrote thirteen years ago and didn't document:

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1241835454707699713

Better than the epidemiological modellers I know saying "it's too soon to model, anthropological climate change doesn't exist, gays should die" over in Canada

For any nerds, this was a nice piece for a Belgian polymath who I know that couples the models with model predictive control (on the intervention strategies)

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/covid-19-from-model-prediction-predictive-control-ingmar-nopens/

[Johnny Yesno]

Again, the further details of the weeks-old Imperial College report trickle out via the UK government.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52082781

In summary: It's going to be a matter of three months rather than three weeks, and the timeframe is entirely dependent on the behaviour of each of us, as individualsl. I'm glad that they've at least finally said it.

And the primary objective of this article is to shift the blame for the unnecessarily high number of deaths from the government to the public. The public have been good overall about heeding the advice, especially given that much of the advice has been contradictory or just plain wrong, as well as being undermined by factors such as people having to work to survive.

Yes, we can influence the pandemic but a proper testing strategy can influence it so much more. Don't let these cunts off the hook for their disgraceful failures.

[Johnny Yesno]

There is the slight issue that his modelling is based on a bit of software he wrote thirteen years ago and didn't document:

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1241835454707699713

Oh, ffs.

[Zetetic]

Still no indication that UK government/NHS England/PHE understands or cares that outbreaks might be at different points and progressing differently (due to demographics, due to lockdown compliance) in different parts of the UK. Or that critical care etc. capacity isn't fungible over hundreds of miles.

Can't just shove some numbers in and out of a UK-wide SIRS model and expect that to tell you whether Carmarthenshire or Newcastle or Exeter or Edinburgh-Glasgow are ready for another influx.

The Deloitte fuck-up is telling in so many ways.

[Johnny Yesno]

The Deloitte fuck-up is telling in so many ways.

What's that?

[BlodwynPig]

We still don't know how long a period of immunity (if any) getting infected gives.

South Korea reporting 91 people reinfected after being COVID free

[Zetetic]

What's that?

UK govt has brought in private consultants to setup bigger testing sites - but not actually staff them or sort out logistics etc. They did this instead of asking local health or the military etc.  who were already working on this, unsurprisingly. Not only didn't ask, but didn't even tell them or national governments.

Result is someone setting up a bunch of tents in your country and having a bit of a tantrum when you won't abandon everything else you're doing to make them look good to their masters in London. Still though, thanks for the tents. (In fairness to them - London gave them cash to do something, however stupid, and they did it. Now being much more helpful, AFAIK.)

This is after UK govt seems to have deliberately fucked up supplies of antigen testing materials to the devolved nations.

Imagine if this was the EU doing this shit to England.

[Zetetic]

What it shows is:
a) Default response is throw money at private consultants.
b) Refusal to understand that not everywhere in the UK is London.

[Johnny Yesno]

UK govt has brought in private consultants to setup bigger testing sites - but not actually staff them or sort out logistics etc. They did this instead of asking local health or the military etc.  who were already working on this, unsurprisingly. Not only didn't ask, but didn't even tell them or national governments.

Result is someone setting up a bunch of tents in your country and having a bit of a tantrum when you won't abandon everything else you're doing to make them look good to their masters in London. Still though, thanks for the tents. (In fairness to them - London gave them cash to do something, however stupid, and they did it. Now being much more helpful, AFAIK.)

This is after UK govt seems to have deliberately fucked up supplies of antigen testing materials to the devolved nations.

Imagine if this was the EU doing this shit to England.

Ah, right, thanks.

But sunbathing, tho.

[Abnormal Palm]

And the primary objective of this article is to shift the blame for the unnecessarily high number of deaths from the government to the public. The public have been good overall about heeding the advice, especially given that much of the advice has been contradictory or just plain wrong, as well as being undermined by factors such as people having to work to survive.

Yes, we can influence the pandemic but a proper testing strategy can influence it so much more. Don't let these cunts off the hook for their disgraceful failures.

I'm not at all, mate. I assure you.

I completely agree that the cowardly cunts in charge are responsible for not implementing this much earlier and with much more direct communication. They're afraid to tell people what they need to know, and so everything is filtered through other channels, at which point social encouragement/shaming does the hard work.

Beyond that, though, on a practical level it does come down to individual social responsibility, and people do need to know that. Let hold these cunts responsible for their fuck ups but let's also make sure that we do minimise the risk for ourselves and for everyone else.

And yes, hammer them on failure to test and track. That is paramount.

[BlodwynPig]

The government needs to fall after this

[GMTV]

12 weeks minimum

[Johnny Yesno]

I'm not at all, mate. I assure you.

I completely agree that the cowardly cunts in charge are responsible for not implementing this much earlier and with much more direct communication. They're afraid to tell people what they need to know, and so everything is filtered through other channels, at which point social encouragement/shaming does the hard work.

Beyond that, though, on a practical level it does come down to individual social responsibility, and people do need to know that. Let hold these cunts responsible for their fuck ups but let's also make sure that we do minimise the risk for ourselves and for everyone else.

And yes, hammer them on failure to test and track. That is paramount.

Yeah, sorry. The way that article is front loaded with 'He declined to predict exactly how long the instructions to stay at home could last, saying the date the virus peaked would depend on how people behaved.' rubbed me up the wrong way.

The deaths we see today are the result of actions taken on average 23 days ago.

[Abnormal Palm]

I totally get that, and I'm certain that it's deliberate.

It's going to be another challenge after lockdown is lifted, I think. Curtain twitchers failing to hold the government primarily responsible and pointing the finger at the working poor. A lot of patience and respect for each other is going to be really important.

[Johnny Yesno]

Net curtain ban now.

[BlodwynPig]