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March 28, 2024, 11:15:45 AM

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A serial lawbreaking liar - Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson scandal thread 2

Started by Fambo Number Mive, April 19, 2022, 01:46:53 PM

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TrenterPercenter


jobotic

No I wouldn't. I still worry about what happens after he wins it.

Not every post of mine is well thought out logically reasoned and fully costed I admit.

AllisonSays

An unsuccessful VONC might bolster his position temporarily; add lustre to his Pulis-esque route one claim that it might not be pretty but utterly gets results; and yeah, lead to a flurry of fash policy positions as 'red meat to the base', like the rushing through of the Rwanda shit.

I'm not saying that's what will happen, who knows, but it's a reasonable concern.

TrenterPercenter

Quote from: jobotic on June 06, 2022, 07:07:41 PMNo I wouldn't. I still worry about what happens after he wins it.

Not every post of mine is well thought out logically reasoned and fully costed I admit.

Fair enough.  Let me put you at ease this vote will make no difference as to him enacting "far right" economics or culture war shit, he will ding that whatever happens - this just makes it harder for him to actualise any of it.

greencalx

The problem with conventional analyses is that Johnson doesn't do convention. He knows that the sole effect of departing from convention is a few people tut a bit, but it doesn't fundamentally get in the way of him doing whatever the fuck he wants. So what if some people think that he's weakened by this vote (whether or not he actually loses it, which he won't)? He'll just ride it out until people get bored. If he gets as far as an election, he'll do something crowdpleasing and that will be that.

Quote from: jobotic on June 06, 2022, 07:07:41 PMNot every post of mine is well thought out logically reasoned and fully costed I admit.

That hardly places you in a minority.


TrenterPercenter

Quote from: AllisonSays on June 06, 2022, 07:10:50 PMAn unsuccessful VONC might bolster his position temporarily; add lustre to his Pulis-esque route one claim that it might not be pretty but utterly gets results; and yeah, lead to a flurry of fash policy positions as 'red meat to the base', like the rushing through of the Rwanda shit.

I'm not saying that's what will happen, who knows, but it's a reasonable concern.

It tends to not work like this though and it isn't really how parliament works anyway - he is losing support not gaining support for any policies having 120+ MPs that have no confidence in you means he more likely has to compromise.

Alberon

Quote from: AllisonSays on June 06, 2022, 07:10:50 PMAn unsuccessful VONC might bolster his position temporarily; add lustre to his Pulis-esque route one claim that it might not be pretty but utterly gets results; and yeah, lead to a flurry of fash policy positions as 'red meat to the base', like the rushing through of the Rwanda shit.

I'm not saying that's what will happen, who knows, but it's a reasonable concern.

It has to be a comfortable victory. Anything over a hundred rebels and the Tories are in nightmare territory where Johnson staggers on with even less authority than he has now.

AllisonSays

Yeah, I think you're both right based on the history but in our increasingly and unprecedentedly stupid times, who knows. It truly amazes me they've passed through Covid, PPE scandal, 100s of deaths a day, totally ineffective response to a possible world war, etc relatively unscathed so I'm finding it hard to assess the camel's load bearing capacities, I guess.

TrenterPercenter

Quote from: greencalx on June 06, 2022, 07:12:27 PMThe problem with conventional analyses is that Johnson doesn't do convention. He knows that the sole effect of departing from convention is a few people tut a bit, but it doesn't fundamentally get in the way of him doing whatever the fuck he wants. So what if some people think that he's weakened by this vote (whether or not he actually loses it, which he won't)? He'll just ride it out until people get bored. If he gets as far as an election, he'll do something crowdpleasing and that will be that.

It is easy to be pessimistic about this (that's not meant to be arsey comment) but he really can't, this very situation is showing he can't do this, it has consequences.

Before it was = this won't affect me time to move on
Then it was = there won't be a VONC time to move on
Then it was = there will be a VONC but he will win it handsomely
Now it is = there will be a VONC but if he wins by one then it still counts.

shoulders

Quote from: Alberon on June 06, 2022, 07:15:06 PMIt has to be a comfortable victory. Anything over a hundred rebels and the Tories are in nightmare territory where Johnson staggers on with even less authority than he has now.

Staggers on with a large majority and a looming election against a Labour party with zero policies and the most clearly shifty, hateable, insincere and, perhaps crucially, charisma free leader in its entire history.

TrenterPercenter

Quote from: Alberon on June 06, 2022, 07:15:06 PMIt has to be a comfortable victory. Anything over a hundred rebels and the Tories are in nightmare territory where Johnson staggers on with even less authority than he has now.

So reports are saying 120 rebels that is bad.  Like I say I've got a fiver on 150-199 might be just a bit too high to win any money but I'd be very happy with 120 rebels - it means a challenger will be well on their way.

TrenterPercenter

Quote from: shoulders on June 06, 2022, 07:21:16 PMStaggers on with a large majority and a looming election against a Labour party with zero policies and the most clearly shifty, hateable, insincere and, perhaps crucially, charisma free leader in its entire history.

I'm sure there will be some policies come election time.

greencalx

Quote from: TrenterPercenter on June 06, 2022, 07:18:44 PMIt is easy to be pessimistic about this (that's not meant to be arsey comment) but he really can't, this very situation is showing he can't do this, it has consequences.

Before it was = this won't affect me time to move on
Then it was = there won't be a VONC time to move on
Then it was = there will be a VONC but he will win it handsomely
Now it is = there will be a VONC but if he wins by one then it still counts.


I agree that's the timeline. Where I disagree is on the consequences part.

jobotic

Quote from: TrenterPercenter on June 06, 2022, 07:14:49 PMIt tends to not work like this though and it isn't really how parliament works anyway - he is losing support not gaining support for any policies having 120+ MPs that have no confidence in you means he more likely has to compromise.

Compromise how? They're not voting against him for ideological reasons.

TrenterPercenter

Quote from: greencalx on June 06, 2022, 07:24:14 PMI agree that's the timeline. Where I disagree is on the consequences part.

We'll see but this is all to do with consequences that is why he is having a VONC and tanking in the polls.

TrenterPercenter

Quote from: jobotic on June 06, 2022, 07:25:02 PMCompromise how? They're not voting against him for ideological reasons.

Some of them are but either way it effectively splits his party and emboldens his enemies within his party.

Alberon

Johnson's basic problem is that nothing would matter if he was still popular with the electorate.

But he isn't. As someone on one of the papers put it today Johnson might want the public to move on, but the problem is they have. The issue is done and dusted but they've mostly decided he's a liar and a lawbreaker. That impression is set in stone.

Johnson's followers bleat on about his election victory, but that's dust now. I think they can keep him and face another 1997 pasting or they can replace him and deal with a 1992 close battle.


Replies From View

I prefer to call it VONK because it evokes getting a cartoon hammer to his head

shoulders

Quote from: TrenterPercenter on June 06, 2022, 07:23:29 PMI'm sure there will be some policies come election time.

1. 'A Britain that plays fair and works hard'

2. 'An NHS with the time to care'

3. 'A nation to be proud of'

4. Classroom sizes reduced to a maximum of 198

shoulders

Quote from: Alberon on June 06, 2022, 07:27:25 PMJohnson's basic problem is that nothing would matter if he was still popular with the electorate.

But he isn't. As someone on one of the papers put it today Johnson might want the public to move on, but the problem is they have. The issue is done and dusted but they've mostly decided he's a liar and a lawbreaker. That impression is set in stone.

Johnson's followers bleat on about his election victory, but that's dust now. I think they can keep him and face another 1997 pasting or they can replace him and deal with a 1992 close battle.

The last sentence is not based in either historical precedence or any current electoral reality. You just have to look at Labour polling versus either 1992 or 1997 to know they are in no position whatsoever to deal out a 97 type victory, meanwhile Labour are starting from such a low number of MPs that the Tories could fight a defensive battle a la Labour in 2005 and still end up with a working majority even if they do really badly.

Also Johnson popularity is not the same as expressed voter intentions.

What is desperately disappointing is that Corbyn missed the chance to take on Johnson this year as he would have absolutely battered him on Covid and the cost of living crisis and provided an alternative that was based on actually doing something rather than power for 'my turn on the controls' like Starmer, an inferior sibling begging for a go on a games console. Risible and pathetic.

TrenterPercenter

Quote from: shoulders on June 06, 2022, 07:33:51 PMthe last sentence is not based in either historical precedence or any current electoral reality.

Jesus.

Quote from: shoulders on June 06, 2022, 07:33:51 PMWhat is desperately disappointing is that Corbyn missed the chance to take on Johnson this year as he would have absolutely battered him on Covid and the cost of living crisis.

the last sentence is not based in either historical precedence or any current electoral reality.

AllisonSays

It's based on an accurate comparison of the agendas of the previous and current labour leadership, though. If it helps we can't base it on historical precedent on account of it didn't happen.

badaids

Does anyone know what the count is of 'fors' and 'againsts' by adding up yer twitters or what have you?

shoulders

You outright dismiss data that is easily accessible and a matter of public record then use the same sentence you are sneering at, this time incorrectly. Well done, you are definitely the smart man in control.

Alberon

The Lib Dems are finally resurrecting from the dead. They will squeeze the Tories in areas that won't vote Labour.

My constituency is John Redwood (a very safe Tory seat) and the local council just went to Lib Dem control.

TrenterPercenter

Quote from: AllisonSays on June 06, 2022, 07:40:40 PMIt's based on an accurate comparison of the agendas of the previous and current labour leadership, though. If it helps we can't base it on historical precedent on account of it didn't happen.

Eh?  I'm not sure what you are talking about here the first bit or the Corbyn bit?

TrenterPercenter

Quote from: shoulders on June 06, 2022, 07:41:34 PMYou outright dismiss data that is easily accessible and a matter of public record then use the same sentence you are sneering at, this time incorrectly. Well done, you are definitely the smart man in control.

Shoulders, I'll say this again to you. Fuck off with your completely predictable crying bullying bollocks.  You said something, you got something back.  Just try dealing with that a bit better mate.

I used the same sentence to show how your "smart man in control" bollocks was instantly pissed on..........by yourself.

TrenterPercenter

Quote from: badaids on June 06, 2022, 07:41:04 PMDoes anyone know what the count is of 'fors' and 'againsts' by adding up yer twitters or what have you?

We don't know but reports are swirling around 120 rebels but we really we don't know if truth be told.

AllisonSays

Quote from: TrenterPercenter on June 06, 2022, 07:43:28 PMEh?  I'm not sure what you are talking about here the first bit or the Corbyn bit?

I'm referring to Shoulders' suggestion that Corbyn's labour party would've been better placed to take advantage of this conjuncture and your pissy dismissal of that proposition by copy and pasting his previous post. Hope that's clarifying (seriously, I'm not trying to be vague).