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indyref2: the Sturgeon strikes back!

Started by Blinder Data, June 14, 2022, 11:14:11 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

bgmnts

Quote from: TrenterPercenter on June 28, 2022, 03:06:42 PMThe most talented British politician of the modern era.

Considering the competition is centrist sludge, syphilitic honey monster and Pussy Grabber Cheetos Man, it's been a breeze.

dissolute ocelot

Not sure how this works as a strategy. She's going to ask Boris, and if he says no then go to the Supreme Court, and if that fails, wait for the next election. Which means she's admitting she's powerless before she even starts negotiations with Westminster.

But there's not really any pro-independence voices can challenge her. Salmond's been shown to be a failure at the last Scottish Parliament elections, the Greens are if anything less militant, and I don't think she's bothered by Stuart Campbell. There are mumblings from  the SNP's more militant wing, but a challenge to her leadership seems unlikely (I don't think they can do much, and they don't have a realistic candidate - Joanna Cherry's hardly going to get mass support).

TrenterPercenter

Quote from: bgmnts on June 28, 2022, 03:17:13 PMConsidering the competition is centrist sludge, syphilitic honey monster and Pussy Grabber Cheetos Man, it's been a breeze.

This looks bad for Corbyn

Dr Trouser

Quote from: dissolute ocelot on June 28, 2022, 03:37:18 PMNot sure how this works as a strategy. She's going to ask Boris, and if he says no then go to the Supreme Court, and if that fails, wait for the next election. Which means she's admitting she's powerless before she even starts negotiations with Westminster.


I assume it's just to keep the SNP faithful on side at the next conference and guarantee herself another few years with her snout in the trough.

Blinder Data

Quote from: dissolute ocelot on June 28, 2022, 03:37:18 PMNot sure how this works as a strategy. She's going to ask Boris, and if he says no then go to the Supreme Court, and if that fails, wait for the next election. Which means she's admitting she's powerless before she even starts negotiations with Westminster.

But what else can she do? Have a "wildcat" referendum that is boycotted by the other side, possibly even opposed by local councils and lacking any constitutional credibility? That would destroy the SNP and her position.

Indy diehards may hate Sturgeon but she is the safe pair of hands of the independence movement. She would attract Yes voters that no other politician could. When you cast a glance at her potential successors, one struggles to see how any of them could convince a majority of Scots to vote for independence.

The whole "next GE campaign is a de facto vote on independence" is nonsense though. The SNP is remarkably good at riding two horses at once, arguing for independence and economic growth and stability, depending on what that person wants to hear. They will happily talk out of both sides of their mouth if it means they continue to romp home at the ballot box. I can't see what would change even if they win big at the next GE.

Rizla

Christ

bowling jesus lebowski laughable dot gif

Of course you all know this is simply a wheeze to keep these horrific nonce-enabling neoliberal ghouls in unchallenged power for the forseeable. Get it to fuck.



Makes me wish I'd voted No.


The 'third route' of treating the next General Election as a de facto independence referendum is pretty piss-weak stuff. When I half-heard something about this on the radio earlier, I assumed the idea was to call a Holyrood election and use that as the de facto referendum.

Mister Six

Quote from: Zetetic on June 14, 2022, 07:01:57 PMThe problem for English politicians and commentators is that the process and outcome of devolution and independence is bound up with the nature of the Anglo-British state and the identity that underpins it - you might not give a shit about Scotland and Scottish independence in themselves, but you probably do have a view on the continuation of the highly centralised Westminster administration and your role in it.

It's an issue that let's people give expression to their intuitions about hyper-centralisation of the British state versus any kind of localism.

How do you see this affecting things in one direction or the other?

Paul Calf

Quote from: TrenterPercenter on June 28, 2022, 03:38:59 PMThis looks bad for Corbyn

It's not as though the SNP didn't join in the pile-on. Like all centrists, they had a stake in seeing a genuine socialist alternative fail. Their extra incentive was swapping the suffering and death of a far-right Tory government for a chance at independence.

canadagoose

Well, if anything else this should clear the impasse in Scottish politics that means the SNP can get away with anything as long as they're pro-independence, and vice versa for the Tories and Labour. I highly suspect it'll be No again, which is a pain in the arse because the UK government and parliament system sucks and needs to get in bin. If Yes wants a good chance I'd give firm answers on the currency question, lots of reference to Brexit and ripping up the Human Rights Act, and maintain the CTA (as nice as it would be to be in Schengen, that'll never fly with rUK).

Blinder Data

Interesting point here about how the Supreme Court might tell Holyrood to pass the bill before they feel able to make a judgment - seems likely to me:

Quote from: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/28/sturgeon-faces-tough-hurdles-road-scottish-independence-voteIn terms of how the supreme court may rule on the lord advocate's reference, Armstrong said it must first decide if it is willing to accept it without seeing the final version of the bill, which has only just been published.

"There is a risk that it takes the view that the Scottish parliament needs to first pass the bill so that the issue is not simply hypothetical or advisory."

gilbertharding

If Scotland becomes independent, and rejoins the EU (or maybe just the single market)... how would they trade with England (or rUK or whatever you call it)?

Martin Van Buren Stan


bgmnts

Quote from: Rizla on June 28, 2022, 04:58:22 PMChrist

bowling jesus lebowski laughable dot gif

Of course you all know this is simply a wheeze to keep these horrific nonce-enabling neoliberal ghouls in unchallenged power for the forseeable. Get it to fuck.



Makes me wish I'd voted No.



To be fair to Scotland they do seem to consistently fuck off the tories any chance they get and are obviously in a pretty shit position.

Quote from: gilbertharding on June 29, 2022, 10:43:31 AMIf Scotland becomes independent, and rejoins the EU (or maybe just the single market)... how would they trade with England (or rUK or whatever you call it)?

Haggis / pork pie exchange over Hadrian's Wall.

Blinder Data

Quote from: gilbertharding on June 29, 2022, 10:43:31 AMIf Scotland becomes independent, and rejoins the EU (or maybe just the single market)... how would they trade with England (or rUK or whatever you call it)?

This is the big unanswered question - same for currency. I can only see Scotland-England trade post-independence via a fairly hard border. Fair play to supporters of independence who are happy to live with that but most, especially the SNP, wave it away as unlikely. But just as it would've been ridiculous for the UK to continue seamless trade with the EU after Brexit, I find it hard to believe Westminster wouldn't want to make Scotland live with the consequences of independence.

Quote from: Clatty McCutcheon on June 28, 2022, 06:52:53 PMThe 'third route' of treating the next General Election as a de facto independence referendum is pretty piss-weak stuff. When I half-heard something about this on the radio earlier, I assumed the idea was to call a Holyrood election and use that as the de facto referendum.

It's not only piss-weak, it's really risky. The only UK GE to have a pro-indy vote share, and only just, was 2015, a high water mark. The last Holyrood election had a pro-indy vote share of just over 50%. Are we really declaring independence based on that? What would Sturgeon do if they get 49.9% - concede defeat and accept Scotland remains in the UK?! Unlikely.

I also think it's an unfair way of interpreting your vote share - many people would vote SNP simply because the alternative is the Tories and are not hugely pro-independence.

Really, the 'third route', which is seems likeliest, is all about making sure the SNP continues to do what it does best - winning elections so it has the biggest and most legitimate platform to argue for independence.

Quote from: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeon-abandons-caution-to-gamble-al-vct8vlwj2I do wonder if Sturgeon and her strategists have thought through what this is likely to do to a UK general election. My fear is it makes the job of kicking Boris Johnson out of Downing Street a lot harder.

Why? Because the big worry in the Labour party right now is that the Tories will try to repeat their success in the past three UK general elections of weaponising English voters' dislike of the SNP.

Sir Keir Starmer is unlikely to win a majority and will be relying on other parties — primarily the Lib Dems and the SNP — to put him into power. This is perhaps his key weakness. By making the election squarely about independence and not about Johnson's fitness for high office, the SNP has just made Starmer's job much more difficult. It will now be harder for him to neutralise the Scottish question as an issue for English voters.

This from Kenny Farquharson in the Times is naïve in the extreme. In their heart of hearts, the SNP hierarchy want the Tories at Westminster because it makes independence more likely. Yesterday's statement was as much about quitting a Tory-led UK Government as it was self-determination. Swap Johnson and co for a more palatable PM/political party and independence becomes harder to argue for.

Sebastian Cobb

Quote from: Blinder Data on June 29, 2022, 11:16:18 AMReally, the 'third route', which is seems likeliest, is all about making sure the SNP continues to do what it does best - winning elections so it has the biggest and most legitimate platform to argue for independence.

Yeah and I don't think everyone who votes SNP is wholeheartedly pro-indie as it seems part of the unspoken promise of voting SNP is they'll make a point of doing things marginally better than down south as some sort of "we could have even better than this but you playing" type move. It's not an ideal way to vote but it's probably better in the immediate term than anything cons/lab have to offer. It's not too different to holding your nose and voting labour but I think the difference is slight - "voting for people who promise to be slightly less cunty than the tories" seems marginally more tolerant of spite than "voting for people who promise to be slightly better than the cunts down south".

Zetetic

Quote from: Mister Six on June 28, 2022, 07:11:32 PMHow do you see this affecting things in one direction or the other?
It's hard not to see that the major reaction will be an aggressive push towards (re-)centralisation in Westminster. We're seeing this today with the post-EU funding arrangements, and the undermining of devolution, both with respect to the nations and within England.

I don't see a credible alternative; we might see more localist or local community -focused movements spring up in England in reaction, as the centralisation of power becomes more visible, but I suspect they'll struggle to win much against the Anglo-British state in the near future. If they started to do so, I guess we'd get to the death squads a bit quicker.




Zetetic

If you wanted to make a counterargument, I guess you could point to the Tory offices in Leeds and shuffling certain civil servants out of London - not sure that any of that really represents a serious embrace of decentralisation, personally.