Russia Vs Ukraine 2: Putin on the Fritz?

[The Culture Bunker]

The one thing this war has achieved is to totally trolley Putin's reputation as a master tactician and the Russian armed forces as a credible fighting machine.

Did Russia/USSR ever have much of a rep as a credible fighting machine? I mean, Hitler's failure to overwhelm them was a matter of timing and then it became a numbers (cannon fodder) game. Is it fair to say their getting the nuclear tech was what kept them as a top player in the game?

[beanheadmcginty]

As far as people doing dangerous stunts on YouTube and insane dashcam footage is concerned, the Russians have always been way ahead of everyone else. And for that reason alone I assumed their armed forces would be unstoppable. Nice to be proved wrong for once.

[Wonderful Butternut]

Did Russia/USSR ever have much of a rep as a credible fighting machine? I mean, Hitler's failure to overwhelm them was a matter of timing and then it became a numbers (cannon fodder) game. Is it fair to say their getting the nuclear tech was what kept them as a top player in the game?

Hitler's failure to overwhelm them was complete metaphysical certainly from the day he attacked and it probably wouldn't have mattered if he'd done it sooner or later than he did. It was just a case of how long and how many corpses later it would be realised. Whilst they were underprepared - some of which had to do with Stalin steadfastly refusing to believe intelligence reports of an imminent attack - and lacking leadership at the start of WW2, the Red Army did improve to the point where it was likely qualitatively the match for any Western army by the later stages of the war. With big ass numbers to boot.

They fell behind in the Cold War and I don't remember the post-Soviet reputation of the Russian armed forces ever being stellar (remember the Kursk shitshow?) and Putin's reputation as a master tactician was more about playing the West diplomatically and supporting the far right to cause trouble than about moving tanks and soldiers around.

But despite that, given that the Ukraine is also a post Soviet state, which for a long time had similar problems to Russia, pretty much everyone expected Russia to crush them. Adam Something is the only person I can think of who, ahead of the conflict, suggested that this could be extremely difficult for Russia.

[Dex Sawash]

As far as people doing dangerous stunts on YouTube and insane dashcam footage is concerned, the Russians have always been way ahead of everyone else. And for that reason alone I assumed their armed forces would be unstoppable. Nice to be proved wrong for once.

They should draft a few dump truck loads of russian cows and send them over to do something, dunno what. GBOL that spilt truckload of cows is though.

[Johnboy]

.

[Zetetic]

While it's clear that Russia's military remains surprisingly rubbish in many ways, I think the standard set by the United States and its allies rolling over places like Iraq and Afghanistan (and still ultimately arguably losing whatever objectiveless wars they ended up in having done that) are quite high.

What's maybe more remarkable is that this was a surprise for everyone, including the Russian Government, given the experiences of the Chechnyan Wars and more recently things like Georgia. (But then I was convinced that they'd learnt that what they're capable of is extremely brief operations with clear objectives and clearly that's not the case.)


Think I prefer Putin's culture wars wind-up material to Biden accidentally calling for regime change.

[Bence Fekete]

What about the self-determination of the Ukrainian people who don't want to be ruled by Russia? Or is self-determination only important when it's the West who are oppressing people?

90% of far left critique seems to have completely removed Ukrainian choice from their equations and basically told them all to suck up 'UKR weakening outcome X' through a kind of imperialism by the back door double handed hand washing. At times I've even started to doubt their objectivity, or what their overall point really is.

Maybe I'm naive (alright, yes), but I'd always presumed the RT crowd would, when push came to shove, when the fuckers were actually kicking in the ceiling and cashing in a decades worth of anti-west fire stoking, that finally they would reveal themselves to be, ah, no, actually at heart double agent democrats who, yes, whilst committed to exposing our own hypocrisy, would know ultimately when to contextualise that criticism within the reality of the lives of people actually living and suffering through it, or something. Or, at the very least, listening to those people > their somewhat marketable anti-west imperialism agenda. Which has clearly taken precedence for many of them in this instance.

*Obligatory: and not that I don't agree with most/all of it usually, or that it shouldn't be pointed out at all.* It's just that in this exact situation, and increasingly as the war has gone on and not resolved as swiftly as they or anyone could have expected, their protestations manifest more to me like an unconscious projection of the anti-EU, Brexit/Lexit stance they're all so wedded to (itself a failure to fully apprehend the deeper cultural and spiritual factors at play within the psychology of EU membership imo). And so they would rather see the world as Amurica=bad, Ukraine=pawns and everyone who challenges that narrative should fail and suffer than say actually, performatively, standing against the more obvious visceral horror of a terrifying and aggressive nationalist kleptocracy being a total kleptocratic cunt. And what the fuck to do about that. The vast majority of voices coming out of Ukraine as the war started and to this day certainly appear to be very consistent on this: we choose to die over submission, whether you help us or not.


This summed up what I've been trying to articulate nicely. Hopefully he'll keep going with these

https://youtu.be/O0-qznLGAgo

This war seems much more about the EU and multiculturalism and harry potter than NATO. I think that's one of the bigger misconceptions.

[falafel]

Really good little video which rings true to me.

I got fed up of my own ignorance and read a couple of books about recent Russian history / the rise of Putin as well as watching that Winter On Fire documentary on Netflix. Now I still know essentially nothing but it is notable how consistently you see this emergence from the rubble of the Soviet Union and the mess of the 90s of a deep rooted, deeply nostalgic nationalism allied with a wilful and almost religious divorcing of political and global reality from the state narrative - effectively regarding the general population as a tool of the state to be manipulated as expediently as possible. The cynicism and hypocrisy of the Russian government is breathtaking and yet I am more and more convinced that Putin really thinks that all of this is a deeply moral and righteous endeavour - not that he doesnt do the bad things, but that the things we think of as bad (like brazen lying, venal quid-pro-quo protection racket diplomacy and killing civilians en masse) are completely justified as part of a historically rooted moral and ethical framework which privileges the realisation of a sort of mythological Russian ur-identity and statehood over practically any other possible imperative.

So this caricatured vision of him as a malevolent operator with a grudge who's worked his way semi-permanently into the institutions of a major power by exploiting connections and manipulating the people around him, who has basically decided he doesn't give a fuck about pretending any more and has nobody around him who is willing or able to talk him down, actually seems to be about right.

[Cold Meat Platter]

malevolent operator with a grudge who's worked his way semi-permanently into the institutions of a major power by exploiting connections and manipulating the people around him, who has basically decided he doesn't give a fuck about pretending any more and has nobody around him who is willing or able to talk him down

based af

[falafel]

But he's just so unfuckable

[Pink Gregory]

Saw him described as a 'very right wing 69 year old shut-in' and that seems to make sense.

[Retinend]

90% of far left critique seems to have completely removed Ukrainian choice from their equations and basically told them all to suck up 'UKR weakening outcome X' through a kind of imperialism by the back door double handed hand washing. At times I've even started to doubt their objectivity, or what their overall point really is.

Maybe I'm naive (alright, yes), but I'd always presumed the RT crowd would, when push came to shove, when the fuckers were actually kicking in the ceiling and cashing in a decades worth of anti-west fire stoking, that finally they would reveal themselves to be, ah, no, actually at heart double agent democrats who, yes, whilst committed to exposing our own hypocrisy, would know ultimately when to contextualise that criticism within the reality of the lives of people actually living and suffering through it, or something. Or, at the very least, listening to those people > their somewhat marketable anti-west imperialism agenda. Which has clearly taken precedence for many of them in this instance.

*Obligatory: and not that I don't agree with most/all of it usually, or that it shouldn't be pointed out at all.* It's just that in this exact situation, and increasingly as the war has gone on and not resolved as swiftly as they or anyone could have expected, their protestations manifest more to me like an unconscious projection of the anti-EU, Brexit/Lexit stance they're all so wedded to (itself a failure to fully apprehend the deeper cultural and spiritual factors at play within the psychology of EU membership imo). And so they would rather see the world as Amurica=bad, Ukraine=pawns and everyone who challenges that narrative should fail and suffer than say actually, performatively, standing against the more obvious visceral horror of a terrifying and aggressive nationalist kleptocracy being a total kleptocratic cunt. And what the fuck to do about that. The vast majority of voices coming out of Ukraine as the war started and to this day certainly appear to be very consistent on this: we choose to die over submission, whether you help us or not.


This summed up what I've been trying to articulate nicely. Hopefully he'll keep going with these

https://youtu.be/O0-qznLGAgo

This war seems much more about the EU and multiculturalism and harry potter than NATO. I think that's one of the bigger misconceptions.

Great post- and the video is indeed well worth watching 👍

Edit: the guy's latest video is also insightful and articulate: comparing Ukrainian with Russian recruitment adverts https://youtu.be/07ONl4-p1os

[monkfromhavana]

They set fire to it in the middle of the ocean and accidentally sank it while it was dry-docked.

Who is this fucker crewed by, Benny Hill?

It's not as if the Russian navy doesn't have form for this kind of thing

This is one of the only type of these "American explains things to you" things I have ever made it the whoel way through, and was chuckling throughout.

[Paul Calf]

I saw the Russians have had to send their only aircraft carrier back for repairs. They managed to sink it in a dry dock last time so who knows what's going to happen there.

I'd guess they're scaling back, will annex Donbas, then say "ah well that's all we were going to do anyway, remember? Forget about the other fronts we were just joking" and call it a day.

The big takeaway for the west is that the Russian military is pretty shit. If they can't properly invade the country next door, I think a Red Dawn scenario is just never going to happen. They've lost a shitload of global credibility and the sanctions will knacker them economically for decades (foreign direct investment will go through the floor) and for what?

Silly old Vlad. Still, great line about JK Rowling.

I don't think that an imperialist expansionist having the largest nuclear stockpile in the world and a weak army is a particularly good thing Armageddon-wise.

[shoulders]

Ukraine is fucking massive, I think the military progress made in a month is quite frightening, as is somewhere like Lviv being bombed. The Russians may have a dysfunctional hierarchy and lost individual battles but they have flattened major cities and have obviously overrun vast territory. Had they done this in two months it would be no less impressive.

You don't hear about any of Ukraine's lost battles or their poorly organised military though, only the brave underdogs giving 100% for the shirt, the lads know they're on a journey.

[MojoJojo]

Facebook friend, who is Russian buy anti war and pro-Ukraine, reposted this, described it as "A good Lenin post". Copying here for curiosity and translation amusement:

I'm already confused in which groups I marked the post and in which I didn't.
So I'm repeating it here.
About visa Sponsor for Ukraine. General reasoning, for whom it is, for whom it will suit. This is not about filling out forms or documents.
I want to tell you a little bit about the possibility of going to the UK. The post is long, please read carefully who is interested in UK visa.
Any questions please ask them here. I get a lot of PMs, some of them may get lost, and most of them are asking about the same thing. It will be easier if you answer in the comments.
So, you can enter the UK on a Sponsors for Ukraine visa. Citizens-resident of Ukraine can use it now at the beginning of the war. Citizens of Ukraine who have already lived somewhere else at the beginning of the war cannot. Upon receiving a visa, you must confirm your residency as of December 2021.To get a visa you need to find a sponsor, there are already websites, there are groups in FB where people offer their homes.
What a sponsor must do - provide free housing for six months. Housing according to standards - a bedroom of appropriate size. You cannot offer a sofa in the living room, you cannot accommodate a large diverse company in one room, and other such reasonable restrictions. After all, it's about six months or more, if the hosts agree.
The scheme will not suit those who want to relocate somewhere for a month or so, the process of obtaining a visa is a complex bureaucratic process.
The rest of the responsibilities are taken over by the state. First the visa is given for six months, then if desired it can be extended to 3 years. Visa is good, full-fledged, can work, use medicine, teach children in schools and receive social assistance if job can't be found or failed. Social care is not huge at all, but it's enough to eat, people roughly calculated that a non-working mum with a child would get about £160 a week, you can live on, especially given that housing is free for six months. Applying for a visa is free of charge.Sponsors are still there, a lot of Britons cannot and do not know where to find Ukrainians who would like to come.
A big moment about London Everyone knows London, many Ukrainians want to go there. Forgetting that London is a very expensive city. First of all, there's a lot more money to be made. Secondly, there housing is more expensive to buy and smaller in size, so there are very few sponsors who have an extra empty bedroom to offer. It is almost impossible for large families to find a sponsor in London. The lonely ones are still capable. But singles want to go to London makes sense if they have good English and international expertise and know they can quickly find high-paying jobs. Other major cities may be better. And, of course, if this specialist can work remotely, it is much more profitable for him to live in a small town with a railway station. London occupies a large square, there are few multi-storey buildings, so it is often faster to get to the center by train from another city than by subway or bus from the outskirts. Keep in mind that the UK is not that big in size.
In general, there are few sponsors from London, there are usually no empty rooms there.
Population density in the UK is significantly higher, with most people living in small towns and villages. Like in Pure English Murders, only without the murders. There are places for families with children. In many cities, sponsors are grouped into groups for the convenience of finding options for groups of people, so there are chances you can find sponsors in the same city if people want to live nearby. For example, two friends with children would like to be close. They are more likely to find sponsors in the same city or village if they seek separate two sponsors rather than one with a huge, empty house.
If a migrant has a car, has money for a used car, or just has a driving license, and the sponsor is ready to let you use his, or if the migrant does not need a job, then you can go to the village completely. What people call rural in the descriptions. It's usually very peaceful, clean, large green spaces for children, the houses are bigger in size. And as a rule, within half an hour's drive there will be a city with work, but with public transport it is bad. Rural.
Where can a person work without much English? On farms, if you live very close, it is rural again, buses do not usually go to farms.
In warehouses, in supermarkets for all kinds of packing, collecting orders. In factories doing simple jobs. Doing the clean up . In elderly care, but here at least a little bit you need to know the language or work in a team where there are those who will help. These jobs are all over the country, some are bigger, some are smaller.
As English improves, the selection expands.
If you can't find a sponsor or you don't have the energy to look for one on your own on Facebook or on special websites that have done to help Ukrainians, then you can choose Scotland or Wales as a sponsor. These two countries (which are different from England, but enter the UK) will find accommodation for those who want to leave themselves.
The house descriptions include a double room - a room with a large (135 by 190) bed, a double bedroom, the room is not necessarily big, the bedrooms are not very big at all in the UK. En suite - room with private toilet and shower.
When they write that they invite family, they mean parent/parents with minor children, not a single or couple. If the sponsors have their children of the same age, there's a much better chance that they'll focus on schools, mugs, and get toys, jumpsuits, clothes and more. Pay attention to the age of the sponsors' children.
It's harder to enter with animals than anywhere else, I'll describe separately. But you have to start with a passport, a chip and a vaccine. In that order just in that order.
Single young women, be vigilant. While 99% of housing offers from men will be perfectly normal, and many of these men started out independent, renting one room in a house with a multi-sex company, and generally know the dorm rules, there will always be the 1% that wants to use the vulnerable position of migrants. If you post a draft photo with lips and in conditional panties in a housing application, it will increase the chances of a bad outcome. I feel good about this type of photo in general, but this one is inappropriate. You can see that such posts are answered either by women who were afraid for you, or by men who did not even try to invite elderly pensioners to themselves. Decent men who would be good neighbours, be wary of over glamorous photos, they might decide you're looking for a sex sponsor, not just a room in the house. Much smarter for single girls who don't plan on offering sex, choose neutral photos, sports, hiking, etc.
One of the groups with housing offers, here housing all over the country. https://www.facebook.com/groups/1161142981324270
If you already have plans to live closer to someone you know, ask them to find a local proposal group. The bands are going by the hundreds already I think.
Separate sites, there are many too, this is just an example
https://homesforukraine.opora.uk/
https://icanhelp.host/
The population density in the country is on the map. There are a lot of places where it is crowded, and you will find support, other Ukrainians, work, etc.

Sorry it's long.

Like in Pure English Murders, only without the murders.

I guess Midsomer Murdersmurders?

If you post a draft photo with lips and in conditional panties in a housing application, it will increase the chances of a bad outcome.

I mean, they're not wrong.

[TrenterPercenter]

https://youtu.be/O0-qznLGAgo

This war seems much more about the EU and multiculturalism and harry potter than NATO. I think that's one of the bigger misconceptions.

It's a take I suppose, Putin is actually a big bad racist that is scared of the gays.  I just struggled through 12 minutes of the video posted and I think we might just want to ask a few questions of mr quick talking beanie man in his bedroom before we write off the several decades worth of work of peer reviewed John Mearscheimer.

To be honest anyone actually familiar with what Mearscheimer actually says in his Ukraine lecture knew this video is nonsense after 2 minutes - does Mearscheimer say NATO is the only reason for Putins invasion of Russia.....no he doesn't, you've not done your research mate.  He even then slips in the disclaimer

"If he (John Mearschmeier) or anyone else wants to say that Ukraines public intention to join NATO and NATOs intention to include Ukraine and some point in the future did something to make it more likely that Putin would do those things, then sure it probably was a factor"

Yes, that is what Mearschemier says <close video>.

So he's not really discussing anything that is real in the first place, hence probably why he has put your twinkly conspiracy music over the video.

OK so what is it about then, the EU, yes who is disagreeing here? No one the EU and NATO operate as a package NATO is a shared military agreement the EU is a shared economic agreement the ideas are related in that joining the EU makes joining NATO more likely and visa-versa - it aligns countries with supra-continental interests ffs.  So another big factor here (btw as people can't be arsed to actually listen to what Mearschiemer actually says it's that Ukraine has no strategic value to the US, his "realism" is one of US interests one that is is being bound up with local tinkering with stuff like the EU and NATO on an adjacent country to Russia).  Note beanie hat doesn't mention any of the quotes or examples of Putin saying over the years about NATO in Ukraine and NATO missiles on other neighbouring countries.

What he does focus on is some war time nationalist that Putin is channelling, because the mad despot theory.  Do you ever wonder what some of our people might have said about the British empire a century ago and whether or not they are still referred too?....ah but scary music so, you know...yes Putin is just the mad man in the castle - he was alone is his castle for 2 YEARS WITH COVID (ffs)

Then beanie man does another massive spin; citing that people think the EU, Maidan protests and NATO represent proxy wars with the US, which he admits is correct, then tells you "look" the US has set up lots of coups around the world and given guns to people they shouldn't have and then control of places they shouldn't have building military force....but that ends there....

You wot?! You think that just ends there?!

It's very stupid.

Self determination ffs again

No one has said we should "throw Ukraine under the bus" or not "allow them self determination".  This is becoming a weird conspiracy theory now, literally no one is saying this.  The "self determination" term was promoted from Zelensky as part of his propaganda to appeal to NATO to get them involved (exactly because it is the kind of thing that west invasions etc... have said they were doing removing despots and restoring the self determination via democracy); NATO is not getting involved, not because it doesn't think Ukraine should have its own self determination, it is not getting involved because it worries about escalating the war in and outside of a country (the US in this sense but other countries have other reasons though) it doesn't value as being important strategically (As Mearshiemer is telling you in his lecture).  Self determination is a human emotional appeal for someone to act regardless of consequences, the greater good, it isn't the reality of the situation.  It's something you can say to tend to your emotions about the conflict giving sympathy to Ukrainians but stop weaponising this against other people that are actually talking about the reality of the situation i.e. that Ukraine is stuck on the border with a nuclear armed country that for a variety of factors has invaded it and further involvement could make matters much much worse - it's pragmatism for less people dead, that is all.

That is it, stop misrepresenting what people are saying here.

[shoulders]

The big bad racist that is scared of the gays is bombing and shelling a country mainly comprised of conservative white Christians. Just to set some context that this truly isn't a helpful angle of attack.

Oh no, just as I was close to supporting Putin he espouses conservative family values!

[TrenterPercenter]

It's a reversion to type that is pretty predictable all being said, a reshuffling of the good and mad/bad leader tropes with lashing of the deserving and undeserving victims.

The self determination thing really needs to get in the bin though, I presume this is the go to hollow centrist claim on twitter at the moment or something.

[Video Game Fan 2000]

There is no nail that liberals won't want to smash down with the cultural difference hammer, the magic explanation for all of history that has never been wrong.

It's a reversion to type that is pretty predictable all being said, a reshuffling of the good and mad/bad leader tropes with lashing of the deserving and undeserving victims.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mufpDXIss5A&t=1509s

[All Surrogate]

I really don't see why Political Realism should be taken as the final word on either politics or reality.

[TrenterPercenter]

I really don't see why Political Realism should be taken as the final word on either politics or reality.

It isn't and no one is saying that it is.

[Ant Farm Keyboard]

IVF has been legal for single Russian women for a couple of decades, and they don't check whether they're lesbians. This right isn't getting challenged. Yet, Putin plays the conservative family values card for Western audiences, as he knows it will make him the de facto reference point of a crowd that's extremely sensitive to these issues. Part of the anti-gay legislation in Russia is an act that plays for the Christian right in Europe and America.

Likewise, you won't find any bad word on vaccines on Russian TV. The antivaxx message was delivered through RT and Sputnik to foreign audiences only, because Russia thinks there's a benefice to have people feuding about the issue, as it makes them less united, weaker, and less focused on Russian politics.

[Retinend]

Likewise, you won't find any bad word on vaccines on Russian TV. The antivaxx message was delivered through RT and Sputnik to foreign audiences only, because Russia thinks there's a benefice to have people feuding about the issue, as it makes them less united, weaker, and less focused on Russian politics.

Amazing. Thanks for sharing.

[TrenterPercenter]

You'll find videos of Putin extolling the Russian tolerance of other cultures and lifestyles if you go looking for them, just like you'll find the same things in the US and UK alongside all the racist/immigrant bashing that gets pushed by elected officials.

Of course the Russian people, like their western counterparts are told they are the just and tolerant ones and the enemies are the barbaric hordes. 

Btw on the JK Rowling thing.  Putin literally said this just to provoke exactly what @Ant Farm Keyboard is saying, to appeal to culture war shite in the West and make idiots go "hmmm perhaps he ain't all that bad if he calling out the wokes".

Putin has invaded Ukraine for multiple reasons; they include having a land corridor to Crimea, potentially having an EU/NATO integrated country on it's border with both nearby economic and military potential problems in the future, to claim the Donbas where there is some Russophile population, and to let the world and surrounding states know, some of which Russia is very paranoid about, not to fuck with it. 

Ignoring, like the chap in video does about what actually happened in the break down of the Soviet Era (The economic disasters, perestroika and glasnost - btw remember it was a certain one Margret Thatcher that we later found out opposed the unification of Germany not the Russians) and all of the history up to now including the Maidan protests just seems exceptionally dumb, as is saying things like well look Poland left the USSR and Russia didn't care about NATO so it can't care about NATO now. 

[falafel]

Part of the anti-gay legislation in Russia is an act that plays for the Christian right in Europe and America.

If it's performative, I suspect the appeal to Western conservatives is a bit of a side benefit. Given the size, relative emptiness and potential factionalism of a lot of Russia it seems like a pretty handy tool to keep rural conservatives on board, not to mention utter cunts like Kadyrov.

[Video Game Fan 2000]

The idea that Russian belligerence and now actual war is primarily driven by a hatred of multiculturalism and western diversity is all a bit too proximal to "they hated our freedom" for me to take at face value. Putin's J K Rowling comment seems like a blatant (and desperate) attempt to fuel this rather than him taking a sincere position in the anglophone culture war. Not that this implies that only realpolitik explains the world, either.

Folding the atrocities in Ukraine into the "our sacred values are under attack by subversive forces" narrative that is popular in both EU and US, conservative and liberal, seems wrong to me. Ultimately its people, not values and meaning, that are getting hit by rockets.

[falafel]

Well, I think those things exist to a certain extent but mainly insofar as people like Putin either (or both) perceive them as an impediment to an ascending Russia or a useful scapegoat for domestic instability. As for the JK Rowling nonsense, I think just about the only sincere position Putin has taken since 2000 has been the consistent through-line that the carve up of the USSR was a mistake and the former soviet states just don't know what's good for them.

I think in most other respects realpolitik IS Putin's world.

[TrenterPercenter]

I do get the emotional pull of seeing all of the white civilian casualties of war and that but I do think people should consider the real politick from all sides going on.

It will being interesting the next stage of this.  As how Zelensky's "self determination" to broker a deal will be seen by the public and those with vested interests in keeping any conflict going.  I think NATO have played a blinder in PR people have completely forgotten the concept of "enduring freedom", they'll have to come up with something to deal with the "oh so he's not hitler" angle but I guess it is going be "thought he was hitler, but e' ain't naffin'" and lots of talk about how weak Russia are (as opposed to how ridiculously military heavy the US is).  This has been a catastrophe for Putin which has some definite benefits but it rather makes you think about how could he make such a mistake? There might well be more to this (almost certainly).

[MojoJojo]

It's probably a little early to say this but some positive sounds coming from peace talks.