Is Theresa May still in charge? Brexit Discussion Thread Four

[Zetetic]

1. The number would change even if the proportion of relevant imports wouldn't - since more imports would now fall into this. Note that the expected number of 'clearances' that the replacement for CHIEF (the HMRC's customs etc declaration system) is supposed to deal with has increased from 60 million to 300 million per year.

2. The 3% is likely to be an underestimate reflecting problems with standards for collecting the rate of physical examinations (back in 2008).

3. I believe that the 3% actually refers to airports and seaports excluding ferry ports. Ferry ports only accounted for around 5% of non-EU imports back in 2008, and very little Ro-Ro traffic in the UK is from outside of the EU (estimates of about 3% at Dover).

I'm trying to show some hard figures, but my understanding the problem is to do with the scale of 'imports' and associated 'declarations' (a subset of which will now need to be checked) that currently flows through our ferry ports as Ro-Ro freight, and that this scale is disproportionately high if you just look at the tonnage (reflecting that container ships, for example, tend to carry bigger shipments than lorries).

Part of the difficulty with showing hard figures is that not a huge amount of info has been reliably collected in the past, particularly on Ro-Ro freight ... because most of its has been coming from the EU.

Currently a very small proportion of Ro-Ro traffic is subject to any sort of check (documentation, physical examination). This will have to increase if we are expected to enforce customs etc. on traffic from the EU.

[biggytitbo]

There are no WTO rules that mandate we have to enforce checks though are there? (plus there is the clause about emergency unilateral measures we are entitled to take)

[Zetetic]

No, we are free on paper to abandon checks so long as we do so universally and unilaterally.

Which means zero tariffs, standards regs etc.

(plus there is the clause about emergency unilateral measures we are entitled to take)

Intended for actual wars and the like.

It doesn't matter what measures you think we're entitled to take - what matters is what other trading partners think that they can get away with given the excuse of the UK failing to stand by its commitments.

[Zetetic]

All of this is setting aside the issue of - what's the point of leaving the EU to secure our ability to make domestic and trade policy ... if we're forced to adopt a neoliberal domestic and trade policy as a consequence of leaving the EU?!

Without checking for underdeclaration etc at a reasonable level, you've surrendered the ability to meaningfully enact tariffs and domestic standards. (And this has knock-on consequences for labour standards as well.)

[mothman]

Besides, the whole point of Brexit is to Take Control Of Are Borders, innit? That's hardly compatible with waving all freight through without first checking to make sure there aren't any more of those horrid, swarthy curry-smelling Barnsley-bound immigrants hidden in there.

[Johnny Yesno]

That document I linked to (which has citations) says less than 3% of imports are checked currently. Why would that change significantly?

From Mister Six's link (which he also quoted):

Even though such checks are in the low single digits in percentage terms, it doesn't take much for long queues to develop in the tight confines of the port of Dover.

There are no WTO rules that mandate we have to enforce checks though are there? (plus there is the clause about emergency unilateral measures we are entitled to take)

Unbelievable. Why do you want brexit, again?


Ah, ignore this. Just read Zetetic's posts.

[Zetetic]

I might well have got the wrong end of the stick, to be clear.

I suspect it might be easier to understand if the ferry ports weren't being gagged.

[biggytitbo]

All of this is setting aside the issue of - what's the point of leaving the EU to secure our ability to make domestic and trade policy ... if we're forced to adopt a neoliberal domestic and trade policy as a consequence of leaving the EU?!

Without checking for underdeclaration etc at a reasonable level, you've surrendered the ability to meaningfully enact tariffs and domestic standards. (And this has knock-on consequences for labour standards as well.)

But initially at least, this is largely about short term measures to address potential disruptions. If any of this actually happened (which is still vanishingly unlikely), we'd suddenly find after we'd moved beyond the largely politically motivated negotiating posturing, everyone would suddenly be willing to come to some sensible arrangements based on mutual need.

[im barry bethel]

Most non EU trade already comes into the UK without physical customs checks,

[mothman]

What is it with May anyway? She can't walk properly, or curtsy, and I just saw a clip of her on Marr and she can't even sit down convincingly. She barely even passes for a lizard in a human suit, I'd be more inclined to suggest it's something insectoid in there...

[Johnny Yesno]

Ah, I did not know that. Will our resident know-all admit he didn't either?

[imitationleather]

What is it with May anyway? She can't walk properly, or curtsy, and I just saw a clip of her on Marr and she can't even sit down convincingly. She barely even passes for a lizard in a human suit, I'd be more inclined to suggest it's something insectoid in there...

I wouldn't kick her out of the tomb.

[Johnny Yesno]

Jesus wept. Where's the fucking question mark?

[Alberon]

What does it even mean? Who's legs detach easiest?

[mothman]

I can't stand Nicola Sturgeon, and still I'd I'd be more prepared to take one for the team, with her than May.

[Sebastian Cobb]

You can see in Sturgeon's face they had to ramp the saturation right up to give May some colour, and she still looks like a condom full of concrete.

[biggytitbo]

That goes back to the Peter North stuff earlier, with the EU becoming essentially a wholesaler for international protocols, or indeed getting superseded by them altogether. As stated, they already lift verbatim huge number of regulations from UNECE and the EU is less becoming an anachronism and more of an irrelevance, beyond its aim of becoming a federal superstate:

Through the Authorised Economic Operator system, along with TIR and advancements in border crossing technology, the European single market framework is being eroded and replaced by a point to point system taking little account of bilateral trade deals. It exists for the free movement of goods over borders, eliminating much in the way of customs intervention. The standards on which it rests are global standards, not EU regulations - which are increasingly one and the same anyway.

In respect of leaving the EU, abandoning the political union, we may lose some peripheral advantages but we are not pulling out of the many global organisations working to bring about greater harmonisation of standards and systems. In fact, leaving the EU gives us a greater presence and a freer hand. Moreover, if this is true of goods then it is even more true for services in which we are seeing newer sectors developing their own global standards entirely independently of the EU. Patents, banking rules, cross border payments, internet and communications are all now global concerns which sidestep regionalism entirely.

https://peterjnorth.blogspot.com/2016/12/moving-beyond-little-europe.html

[biggytitbo]

Also odd how amidst all the relentless scaremongering, this went virtually unreported https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-remain-in-common-transit-convention-after-brexit

The UK is set to remain in the Common Transit Convention (CTC) after Brexit, ensuring simplified cross-border trade for UK businesses exporting their goods.

The CTC is used for moving goods between the EU member states, the EFTA countries (Iceland, Norway, Liechtenstein and Switzerland) as well as Turkey, Macedonia and Serbia.

The UK is currently a member of the CTC while it is in the EU, and has successfully negotiated membership in its own right after Brexit. This would apply to any new trading relationship with the EU or in the unlikely event of a no deal.

[im barry bethel]

Makes you wonder why the Tories are practicing a traffic jam in Dover and contracting lanes on a no ferry ferry company, some mad remainders have even stretched project fear out to 50 odd pages

https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/The-UK-border-preparedness-for-EU-exit.pdf

[biggytitbo]

I think delibertly talking up and promoting no deal preperations is part of Mays plan to get MPs to support her deal.

[Jittlebags]

Which of Sturgeon and May would turn out to be the nine volter ?

[Jittlebags]

Surprised there's no discussion on the Soubry/Nazi thread, unless I've missed it. Dirty right wing fuckers. Awaiting Rees Morgue dog dirt on his doorstep reposte.

[BlodwynPig]

It's all a fuddle and no mistake.

[Jittlebags]

I've noticed that the shadow from Rees Morgue's glasses seem to indicate the sun being in the conventional position for the time of day, despite the sun plainly coming out of his arse.

[BlodwynPig]

I've noticed that the shadow from Rees Morgue's glasses seem to indicate the sun being in the conventional position for the time of day, despite the sun plainly coming out of his arse.

Faked loon landing.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Surprised there's no discussion on the Soubry/Nazi thread, unless I've missed it. Dirty right wing fuckers. Awaiting Rees Morgue dog dirt on his doorstep reposte.

no Tory MP can travel anywhere in the country or show their face in public without being challenged

[biggytitbo]

This happens all the time when they interview mps outside of Westminster now, some dickheads will try to shout them down so nobody can hear them, or play loud musical instruments to do the same. One I was watching before Christmas had to be cut short because some arseholes where singing bollocks to brexit behind them.


Anna Soubry, like 99% of people who get called it, isn't a Nazi. She's a moron, but she has to be allowed to speak without been shouted down or intimidated. Same goes for Rees Mogg or anyone else.

[jobotic]

no Tory MP can travel anywhere in the country or show their face in public without being challenged

Being challenged? Horrific.

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

I think delibertly talking up and promoting no deal preperations is part of Mays plan to get MPs to support her deal.

Proberly delibert

Hmm. If it was you'd think they'd be doing a more convincing job than a lorry thing and employing a bogus ferry company. The only thing they are managing to convey is their utter incompetence.

[biggytitbo]

Why would 'competence' have anything to do with it? Mays playing a game of chicken.