US Elections 2020 thread

[Sin Agog]

https://mobile.twitter.com/LeftFlankVets/status/1227401183532208128

When I was trying to stream MSNBC's Iowa coverage (under the illusion that it would all be wrapped up licketysplit), the only pundit willing to acknowledge and give Bernie his dues was the African-American one*.  All seems promising when it comes to siphoning off Biden's base in Nevada.


*actually, the Republican woman they had on seemed to give him a bit of cred, too.  I'm kinda confused how Bernie can seemingly garner as much cross-party support as he does.  Is it them tipping their hat to him because they think he's unelectable, or do they genuinely appreciate a maverick?

[Dewt]

You're really desperate to hammer this point home. Why? He was running against one other person last time and there are like ten others this time.

And also, New Hampshire is a state where people hammer signs into their yards that read "Hillary For Prison". It's probably better to view 2016's results as a huge loss for Hillary than a huge win for Bernie. (this is something I have come to terms with more recently)

New Hampshire is white and people are either fancy or dying. The state motto is Live Free Or Die. Last night's result isn't surprising in retrospect. It is not going to be reflected in the Super Tuesday states where black people live. Bernie's 2016 Super Tuesday problem is about to become Buttigieg's.

Bernie's result last night absolutely puts him as the front runner. It's disappointing that he didn't get 5+ points above the rest, but I think that was stupid (of me) to expect in retrospect (especially with students having to jump through ridiculous hoops to be able to qualify for voting).

[Dewt]

*actually, the Republican woman they had on seemed to give him a bit of cred, too.  I'm kinda confused how Bernie can seemingly garner as much cross-party support as he does.  Is it them tipping their hat to him because they think he's unelectable, or do they genuinely appreciate a maverick?

I think it's probably all about allegiances and connections, and that maybe Buttigieg's corporate fucko people aren't their corporate fucko people, so once in a while a pundit talks from the heart about Bernie.

[Dewt]

The optimist and the pessimist parts of me are constantly battling it out over this (yesterday I would have seen last night's results as very bad) but I think it's rational to see Bernie as the clear front-runner and with no realistic path for Buttigieg. Him being close in the first two white states just buys time for the Stop Bernie Gang to make more plans.

[Mister Six]

*actually, the Republican woman they had on seemed to give him a bit of cred, too.  I'm kinda confused how Bernie can seemingly garner as much cross-party support as he does.  Is it them tipping their hat to him because they think he's unelectable, or do they genuinely appreciate a maverick?

I think in the case of Fox it's a combo of thinking he's unelectable, and having another stick to his CNN and the DNC with. Plus, Bernie's kind of appealing - as you say, he's a maverick and is rattling the Democratic institutions. I think they think he probably won't make it as the Dem pick though.

[Dewt]

Many Republicans find huge appeal in people who don't represent Ivy League cunts in suits with NPR voices. It's one of the few things I agree with Republicans on.

[Dewt]

What is the deal with Warren? All that came of last night from her was making veiled references to arrogant Bernie and his bad supporters: https://twitter.com/proustmalone/status/1227444023473950723

It seems like a calculated move (she has got to fire her fucking useless consultants who keep telling her that she can win a fight with Bernie) with a goal towards forming a pact with Amy (with all the recent "me and Amy" talk). I think she's going to endorse Amy with the promise of running mate as a reward.

[Mister Six]

Segueing into identity politics after her diluted progressive measures were overshadowed by Bernie's stronger positions and better history of consistency. This talk is just setting up a Revenge of the Bernie Bros narrative for her and Klobuchar to mine, in the hope that nobody pays attention to all those stories about Sanders' substantial female (and POC female, too) support.

[Psmith]

It is nice to hear an American politician sounding intelligent again.Not that he's got any chance of the White House in Trumpland.

[QDRPHNC]

It is nice to hear an American politician sounding intelligent again.Not that he's got any chance of the White House in Trumpland.

I thinking for Sanders, beating Trump is going to be easier than being the DNC.

[Ferris]

I see Deval Patrick has dropped out.

A sad day for [insert issues he stood for].

[kngen]

He shouldn't have cancelled on those two people that turned up to his rally. They might have made all the difference!

[Ferris]

Cloth-eared attack piece of the day "billionaire who knows better than you doesn't like Bernie."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/business/lloyd-blankfein-bernie-sanders.html

Best line: "Bill Gates, another billionaire, expressed his concern in November about a wealth tax."

I bet he fucking did.

[Urinal Cake]

You're really desperate to hammer this point home. Why? He was running against one other person last time and there are like ten others this time. Did you seriously expect him to get the same number of votes? Perhaps the "narrative" that he keeps winning despite the mainstream media ignoring him, lying about him at every opportunity, ought to be the one you're more interested in. No matter how big his margin of victory, the MSM will not care. Read the tweet that C_Larence posted a few pages ago. That sort of garbage isn't going to be stopped by Bernie winning.

This is about expectations vs reality. I am not the only one saying Sanders 'underperformed'. Virgil Chapo predicted the order but he also predicted an 8+ lead. Sam Seder and crew hoped he would do better. The average of the polls had Sanders around 5 points ahead. It looks like he'll win by less than 2 points. People including his campaign and supporters had expectations and he did not meet them.

One element is the media the other is the effect on the campaigns itself. The media narrative is that it's a close win for Sanders. They can tell that truth because it suits them. Further it's never a bad media narrative for their surprise 'winners' eg Buttigieg and Klobuchar.  No fishy Iowa situation here.

The second is what the campaign takes outs of it. For Sanders unless internal polling told him otherwise you'd be a bit miffed- the polls were a bit off, the strategy or ground game you have is not cutting through as you like etc. Now if you're other campaigns such as Buttigieg and Klobuchar you'd feel happy that you've outperformed expectations. There's the hope that you can outperform the polls again- more donations, more media etc.

No wonder Corbyn lost.  Some people are so adamant and desperate to prove that everybody is out to get 'their' candidate they become blind to reality.

[ZoyzaSorris]

Fucking hell Mr Cake you are a weird obtuse fucker.

[Dewt]

This is about expectations vs reality. I am not the only one saying Sanders 'underperformed'. Virgil Chapo predicted the order but he also predicted an 8+ lead. Sam Seder and crew hoped he would do better. The average of the polls had Sanders around 5 points ahead. It looks like he'll win by less than 2 points. People including his campaign and supporters had expectations and he did not meet them.

One element is the media the other is the effect on the campaigns itself. The media narrative is that it's a close win for Sanders. They can tell that truth because it suits them. Further it's never a bad media narrative for their surprise 'winners' eg Buttigieg and Klobuchar.  No fishy Iowa situation here.

The second is what the campaign takes outs of it. For Sanders unless internal polling told him otherwise you'd be a bit miffed- the polls were a bit off, the strategy or ground game you have is not cutting through as you like etc. Now if you're other campaigns such as Buttigieg and Klobuchar you'd feel happy that you've outperformed expectations. There's the hope that you can outperform the polls again- more donations, more media etc.

No wonder Corbyn lost.  Some people are so adamant and desperate to prove that everybody is out to get 'their' candidate they become blind to reality.

I think you need to temper "our hope was a bit unreasonable" with "this is why the left failed". Sanders is the front-runner, the New Hampshire makes perfect sense if you forget about notions derived from 2016 and perpetuating theories about the results being a disaster for him is fine but when it's such a debatable notion nobody outside of people with an anti-Sanders agenda is really going to want to entertain it. At length. Over and over again.

[Sin Agog]

Bogcake smacks of a moderate pretending to be an alarmist leftie.  When you consider that identifying as a socialist was an almost committable offence not six or seven years ago, the trajectory we're on right now is wild.

Corbyn and Sanders comparisons don't really hold water.  England, to quote the end of The Great Gatsby, having never experienced a revolution and still in effect employing a hierarchy, is forever 'borne back ceaselessly into the past.'  Whereas the U.S., naive and childlike and short of memory as it is, is more elastic and capable of change for that very same reason.

[Dewt]

Also, the power of the UK media is fucking wild. The US media might be shocking, but it's trying to corral a much more fractured country. The Beeb/Guard and gutter press tag team can make disengaged UK citizens dance to any tune they want. And also, Brexit FFS. And consider what a powerful driving force towards left-wing policies it is to have an average out-of-pocket personal spend of $10,000 on healthcare (which INCREASES if you're broke), as opposed to the UK already having the NHS ("let's stop it being dismantled by cunts" is less persuasive than "let's have a fucking crumb of healthcare, please").

[C_Larence]

Cloth-eared attack piece of the day "billionaire who knows better than you doesn't like Bernie."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/business/lloyd-blankfein-bernie-sanders.html

Best line: "Bill Gates, another billionaire, expressed his concern in November about a wealth tax."

I bet he fucking did.

There were a lot of photos of Blankfein with Ghislaine Mazwell and MBS being posted last night. These ghouls can't hide anymore and they hate it so much.

[Urinal Cake]

Earlier in the thread I already said 2016 in general was an outlier because it was a two person race and Sanders was against an unpopular candidate. I like most people are making assumptions on the polls in 2020. The problem with

debatable notion nobody outside of people with an anti-Sanders agenda is really going to want to entertain it.

is that it's never one specific agenda it's always accumulative just another little tap against Sanders. Further they make up the majority of the public discourse. Every time Clinton opens her mouth the internet goes haywire despite her pulling the same shit every few weeks.

The UK Left failed catastrophically but the Sanders campaign does seem to know what it's doing and should be okay. I don't think they'll take things for granted like people on this site do.

Bogcake smacks of a moderate pretending to be an alarmist leftie.  When you consider that identifying as a socialist was an almost committable offence not six or seven years ago, the trajectory we're on right now is wild.
Corbyn and Sanders comparisons don't really hold water.  England, to quote the end of The Great Gatsby, having never experienced a revolution and still in effect employing a hierarchy, is forever 'borne back ceaselessly into the past.'  Whereas the U.S., naive and childlike and short of memory as it is, is more elastic and capable of change for that very same reason.

Poll, results & journalism> literary intellectual wankery. Also England did have a revolution, the English Civil War- a king was tried, executed and the monarchy abolished.
Since Nevada is coming up https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/482761-powerful-nevada-union-warns-against-sanders-health-plan
A socialist movement that the unions fight against. They're probably not the first and they're not going to be the last. To quote the great contemporary poets of the Internet -FYIGM (Fuck You I got Mine)

Fucking hell Mr Cake you are a weird obtuse fucker.

So far cranks like biggytitbo and I have been mostly correct when it comes to political results on this site. So I'll take that as a positive. 

[ZoyzaSorris]

Citation needed I think. You just come across a bit misinformed or wilfully obtuse most the time I've seen to be honest.

[Urinal Cake]

My best work

Barnaby (dog-napper) will win his seat. Dutton (nativist) will win his seat. Abbott (onion-eater) will lose his seat. Morrison will win government. I do not underestimate the public antipathy for Shorten and Labor. Palmer (our Trump) has tipped it in the Coalition's favour.

Australian election. Not just the results in a two party election but three contentious seats as well. I bet with this company https://www.news.com.au/sport/sports-life/federal-election-2019-sportsbet-pays-out-52m-in-election-shock/news-story/4c006bec64e3bfabde02ac884ec2ae45

The agency, and most of Australia, was so sure of a Labor win it opted to reward punters two days ahead of the votes being counted.

Also predicted but can't be bothered finding posts which said there would be a Trump win and I think Brexit. Also I didn't want to get jumped on (who can blame me after this I say something a bit contentious in thread) but Corbyn was never going to win.

[chveik]

good for you.

[Sin Agog]

My best work Australian election. Not just the results in a two party election but three contentious seats as well. I bet with this company https://www.news.com.au/sport/sports-life/federal-election-2019-sportsbet-pays-out-52m-in-election-shock/news-story/4c006bec64e3bfabde02ac884ec2ae45

Also predicted but can't be bothered finding posts which said there would be a Trump win and I think Brexit. Also I didn't want to get jumped on (who can blame me after this I say something a bit contentious in thread) but Corbyn was never going to win.

The obvious explanation is not that your predictions are a result of a cogent and sober analysis of the facts, but that you have the power to manifest your posts into reality.  In which case, fuck you for ruining the world!

[Paul Calf]

Mystic Milv Award incoming.

[chveik]

I have to say, I don't quite understand the mindset of someone betting on elections. I wouldn't feel comfortable making money out of it.

[Urinal Cake]

Well it seems I go Warren wrong but she was at really good odds like 50-1.

[Dewt]

Poll, results & journalism> literary intellectual wankery

How can you look at what's going on and say that polls and journalism are important? POLLS? Seriously?

What did we say about polls before any results came in? That Biden is artificially inflated and will definitely not be viable in actual elections. And now we're looking at his dead campaign.

You can characterise the blatantly obvious as literary intellectual wankery, but then for that wankery to turn out to be correct and still defend the fucking polls is madness.

What are you fighting against here? We're not saying anything wild. We're saying the same thing as Nate fucking Silver at this point, that's how uncontroversial it is.

[Cuellar]

And consider what a powerful driving force towards left-wing policies it is to have an average out-of-pocket personal spend of $10,000 on healthcare (which INCREASES if you're broke), as opposed to the UK already having the NHS ("let's stop it being dismantled by cunts" is less persuasive than "let's have a fucking crumb of healthcare, please").

I was thinking about this today - maybe you need a dystopian hellscape to focus people's minds.

[Mister Six]

I was thinking about this today - maybe you need a dystopian hellscape to focus people's minds.

And then you come out of the dystopian hellscape with a nice nationalised healthcare system.

And then you spoil your kids.

And then they grow up to be fucking boomers and ruin everything you broke your back to achieve.

Really hoping Millennials and Gen Z can save and restore things, otherwise I worry that it's going to be an awful cycle of boom and bust - and we'll be careening into the bust.[nb]Fnarr.[/nb]