Pubs seem to think they're re-opening

[Ferris]

I'd probably enjoy a lot more with different company.

...and I'm sure York is nice as well!!!

[shiftwork2]

Yes.

Shoulders bangs on about York quite a bit so surely that's enough to kill it for a lifetime.

[MojoJojo]

_{what does it mean}

I have no idea? What are you trying to say? You've taken two numbers, removed the context, and asked a question with an arched eyebrow.

[GoblinAhFuckScary]

I have no idea? What are you trying to say? You've taken two numbers, removed the context, and asked a question with an arched eyebrow.

pubs opened on the 12th? the context is the covid 19 epidemic? one number is higher than the other? i'll thank you to leave my eyebrows out of this

[wooders1978]

I have no idea? What are you trying to say? You've taken two numbers, removed the context, and asked a question with an arched eyebrow.

It's not the pubs fault of course but it is clear for many people lockdown was relaxed weeks ago which is going to lead to another spike imo

[BlodwynPig]

Not seen enough evidence of seasonality being a determinant of viral transmission dynamics (I would have expected more evidence, but it may be too early to nail it down)

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18150-z

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935121001687?via%3Dihub

Seasonality alone is not sufficient to curb the COVID-19 transmission.

...counter...

https://www.scienceboard.net/index.aspx?sec=ser&sub=def&pag=dis&ItemID=2055

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7700765/

[BlodwynPig]

Had a furious row with an ex girlfriend just up on that bridge there before getting a train and leaving the city never to return. Happy memories.

PS. York's a shithole and probably the most boring place in England, and I say that as someone who has been to Stafford.

You're thinking of Dudley?

[BlodwynPig]

pubs opened on the 12th? the context is the covid 19 epidemic? one number is higher than the other? i'll thank you to leave my eyebrows out of this

11th was a Monday - case rates are usually reported lower on that day.

You should not use daily values as an indication of any significant trend. The weekly 7 day mean is more indicative of the trend as it smooths out noise.

[Zetetic]

Particularly when UK Government network labs are throwing trays of specimens on to the floor, wiping them down and shoving them in the machine, seeing batches come back as 50%+ positives and concluding "yes, that's probably right".

[BlodwynPig]

Particularly when UK Government network labs are throwing trays of specimens on the floor, wiping them down and shoving them in the machine, seeing batches come back as 50%+ positives and concluding "yes, that's probably right".

Don't tar "all labs" with this brush, please.

[Zetetic]

Our labs are fine. ;)

[BlodwynPig]

Our labs are fine. ;)

we are using a C y m r u lab also, as you well know.

[Zetetic]

If it's the P*rkin*lmer one in Casnewydd, nothing to do with us.[nb]Although I think we're sequencing positives from that one? I imagine you know more about that.[/nb] (The one next door is, admittedly.)

[Zetetic]

In fairness, it's only like 5 UK network labs that are a bit dubious. (And our labs have their own... challenges.)

[GoblinAhFuckScary]

You should not use daily values as an indication of any significant trend. The weekly 7 day mean is more indicative of the trend as it smooths out noise.

i know. i was just being flippant

[RetroRobot]

Feel like pure shit just want Wharf Chambers back x

[olliebean]

pubs opened on the 12th? the context is the covid 19 epidemic? one number is higher than the other? i'll thank you to leave my eyebrows out of this

It means absolutely nothing in the context of pubs reopening 2 days ago as any increase due to that won't be showing up in the figures yet.

[Icehaven]

11th was a Monday - case rates are usually reported lower on that day.

You should not use daily values as an indication of any significant trend. The weekly 7 day mean is more indicative of the trend as it smooths out noise.

11th was a Sunday.

[El Unicornio, mang]

New cases back down yesterday, must have been a blip. Also, 0 new cases for the 9th?? Did they just not bother recording the info for that day? Because Prince Philip?

[Shoulders?-Stomach!]

As has been said above, look at 7 day rolling average, week by week figures and also comparison to the same day last week. That gives a good overview of what's happening

I would also mention that when cases are down to 1,000-2,000 a couple of local outbreaks will be enough to cause a big spike, they aren't necessarily indicative of a change in the overall direction of travel. The phrase 'smooth out noise' is about right. If infections and hospitalisations start going up exponentially that's time to worry, of course.

Thanks for the stuff about seasonality, BlodwynPig. I think it is a clear contributing reason for why the virus cleared away across Europe for the three warmest months last year. School holidays and a continuation of distancing measures and mask wearing would also have helped, naturally.

[gib]

You make some good points Shoulders but you still haven't told me what the ale was.

[idunnosomename]

Witch's Tit, 4.2% abv

[DrGreggles]

Had a couple of pints at the local this afternoon.
Hardly anyone there.
Lovely.

[BlodwynPig]

Had a couple of pints at the local this afternoon.
Hardly anyone there.
Lovely.

What pie did you have?

[DrGreggles]

What pie did you have?

No pie, just a Scottish egg.

[BlodwynPig]

No pie, just a Scottish egg.

Classic, but its no pie and a pint.

[DrGreggles]

Cambridge, mate. No pies in pubs. Not even gravy in the chippy.

[Ferris]

Why would there be gravy in a chippy? Do they go on the stuffing and Yorkshire puddings?

[Dr Rock]

Why would there be gravy in a chippy? Do they go on the stuffing and Yorkshire puddings?

Northern thing.

[BlodwynPig]

Northern thing.

#notallnortherners