Who are you voting for in 2024 and why?

[TrenterPercenter]

There are plenty of places with PR where no-one works with the far right party.

I'm sure there are, I am just pointing to the bit about "at least they are in separate parties" which only matters if they are blocked out, and as you say which is usually achieved by the left compromising with the centre and centre right (what I was saying also).  There is obviously nothing then to stop the far right infiltrating other parties either and accruing support that tilt this centre towards the right, we hope that it happens the other way but we have to at least accept it could be the opposite.

We could try plugging this into recent polling



Tories and Reform on 34% of the vote that would translate to about 180ish seats, with Labour on 240, Greens and Lib Dems on 40ish each and SNP about 16ish (I'm being very crude here based on 2015 calculations and there are less overall seats in PR).  So what does this mean?  A majority would be 259 so despite Labours high watermark it would need votes from Greens or Lib Dems, they'd only need to find 7% of overlap with either of these parties to form a coalition - easy enough, but it would cost them 14%.  The problem comes from when the tail start wagging the dog and the people that deserve their 93% (in terms of representation) or 86% in terms of governmental share start getting held to ransom by the smaller party. 

Another way of looking at it, and why I'm more for than against, is Labour could look left and form its rainbow coalitions but you've got to remember when if it does it becomes essentially a shared government and if things don't work out then seeking change people will shift rightwards, all it takes a few years in the wilderness working on their PR and the Tories with a hard right party that knows how to conceal enough will be welcomed in.  I'm just saying there is a lot of responsibility on Labour/Greens and Lib Dems (not sure how SNP fit in as it get complicated then) to not fuck it up (which they will).

[Deano]

We could try plugging this into recent polling

Appreciate what you're trying to do, but can we not? I see this done a lot and to me it's very much infantilising the electorate by assuming they wouldn't really vote differently in a PR system. The reality is we don't know how people would vote in a PR system unless we actually had one. Yes, maybe it'd look like you're saying, but I suspect the Greens and Lib Dems would actually do much better because many natural supports of those parties vote tactically. I also think that some of the more extreme right parties might actually do worse, as I think many on the right understand exactly what a vote for Reform or even the BNP means, and it doesn't mean them ever actually getting elected. They are people who are far closer politically to the Tories than they are to Reform, but nevertheless are a little to the right of the Tories. They know it's a way of nudging the Conservatives towards their position.

[superthunderstingcar]

So what does this mean?  A majority would be 259 so despite Labours high watermark it would need votes from Greens or Lib Dems

A party with less than 50% of the vote getting less than 50% of the seats?

<faints>

[TrenterPercenter]

Appreciate what you're trying to do, but can we not? I see this done a lot and to me it's very much infantilising the electorate by assuming they wouldn't really vote differently in a PR system.

Fair point. 

[TrenterPercenter]

A party with less than 50% of the vote getting less than 50% of the seats?

<faints>

I think you might have misunderstood what I was saying but Deano is right it is a bit silly trying to impressive FPTP numbers on PR, it changes everything fundamentally.

[Buelligan]

I'm voting for a party who decide who I vote for because they run the voting system.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/19/police-investigate-labour-selection-contest-over-computer-misuse-claims

[TrenterPercenter]

5pt drop for Labour, mainly going to Lib Dems

[BlodwynPig]

5pt drop for Labour, mainly going to Lib Dems

Good to see.

[jobotic]

Hmm. Doesn't make much sense. What's Davy pretended to knock over that's grabbed everyone's imagination?

[Buelligan]

It's the Mandelson Effect.  People voted Labour because there was no other choice.  People are now desperately looking for another choice that doesn't include complicity in war crimes.

[Dr Rock]

You can use your vote for a very small liberal leftist commie type to help them get their deposit back.

[DelurkedToHelp]

Hmm. Doesn't make much sense. What's Davy pretended to knock over that's grabbed everyone's imagination?

I think last week's poll with that particular pollster was the outlier.

The below are the results from 2 weeks ago, which are near identical to this week's.

Labour 42%
Conservative 24%
Reform UK 14%
Liberal Democrat 12%
Green 5%

[Zetetic]

I'm voting for a party that cannot turn the taps on.

[PlanktonSideburns]

It's the Mandelson Effect. 

Could have sworn he died in prison during the Iraq war

[Cuellar]

Had a leaflet through from someone in Galloway's party who looks like a frightened child.

[All Surrogate]

Probably afraid of being forced to change sex. But don't worry, Galloway will put a stop to that!

[canadagoose]

Is there a way to help a candidate get elected if you're in a different political party? I'm officially a Scottish Green but I know our candidate won't win. I'd rather our current SNP MP was re-elected rather than the posh centrist Labour wonk. I realise I might get booted from the SGP but it might be worth it.

[Blinder Data]

Is there a way to help a candidate get elected if you're in a different political party? I'm officially a Scottish Green but I know our candidate won't win. I'd rather our current SNP MP was re-elected rather than the posh centrist Labour wonk. I realise I might get booted from the SGP but it might be worth it.

check your membership terms and conditions, but i would think you'd easily get away it. you could anonymously donate to their campaign, and sign up to the party's emails to find out how to get involved with door-knocking - just don't be in any photos or put anything out there on social media. parties will have people helping them out who aren't members, though there are probably a few things you would need a membership card for

[Zetetic]

I'll be voting for a party that believes "trans rights are human rights".

[Buelligan]

I'll be voting for a party that wants to spend an extra £10billion pa on weapons and isn't afraid to kill every motherfucker in the world (including me).

[Mrs Wogans lemon drizzle]

Looking forward to hearing what Labour's victory song will be on election night. 

Let's Get It Started in Here!" by Black Eyed Peas?

[dontpaintyourteeth]

good choice hope they use the album version

[Mrs Wogans lemon drizzle]

Yeah i reckon so, upbeat but not too upbeat.

[BlodwynPig]

D:REAM - Unforgiven

[Zetetic]

I'll be voting for an LGBT ally who believes that adults should have the right to bodily autonomy.

[Zetetic]

I'll be voting for a party that has no time for those who flinch at our flag, the flag of England.

[mattyc]

I'm not quite sure if this belongs in here, but it is about the election. This article details C4's plans for election coverage, fronted by Maitlis, Campbell and Stewart! What a wonderfully pluralist team! 3 centrists, at least 2 of whom have spread lies and disinformation about Corbyn and the left. So the whole evening will be a paeon of praise for Starmer and how right he was to go back to the centre ground and how wrong Corbyn and the left are and they should just fuck off.

Further analysis to be provided by Clare Balding, which is an interesting choice although there's some uncertainty about what she will actually say, and political editor Gary Gibbons, who was also responsible for some shite anti-Corbyn "journalism". I think I'll be giving C4 a miss then, although Campbell's presence alone would guarantee that as he's a disgusting piece of shit.

[Fambo Number Mive]

Also contributions from the fucking stars of Gogglebox.

Still, I'm sure it will keep the right wing establishment happy. I think Channel 4 are partly scared of another attempt to sell them off.

[BlodwynPig]

We can fantasise that Labour's vote collapses and a rag tag group if good and bad independents plus Greens gain enough ground to force a hung parliament... just to see Campbell being forced to scoff down George Galloway's fedora by a group of lesbian activists who have invaded the studio IN A NIGHT OF UNBRIDLED CHAOS

[Mr_Simnock]

In the past, Channel 4 has gone against the grain by hosting an "Alternative Election Night" featuring comedians providing satirical commentary in front of a live studio audience.

However, the 2019 edition, co-hosted by the comedian Katherine Ryan, descended into chaos. The studio audience loudly booed the exit poll showing a large Tory majority, Jimmy Carr attempted political analysis and Boris Johnson's father, Stanley, was barracked while arguing with Robert Michael "Judge" Rinder about whether female fighter jet pilots could go to war while wearing burkhas.

is this available anywhere to watch now?